My issues with the Blackfyre theory

[Chebyshov]

This pet peeve theory thread got me thinking. Throughout the boards, one of the most hotly debated topics is Aegon’s true identity (I mislike the “fAegon” slur; even if he isn’t Rhaegar’s son, he’s been raised with the name “Aegon”). The idea that Aegon is truly a Blackfyre is one of the most popular theories. However, I have a few issues with it, and am continually mystified by the certainty in which it is defended.

The TL;DR version is as follows:

• Conflation of evidence for Aegon being fake (not the son of Rhaegar/Elia) vs. evidence for Aegon actually being a BF
• Lack of compelling textual evidence for his BF heritage in ASOIAF
• The “so what” factor; lack of general impact on the story being told in ASOIAF

Let me elaborate:

Starting with my first point, I’ve noticed a common pattern among advocates of the theory; they argue that he is both the mummer’s dragon and a Blackfyre.

In context, here’s what we know about the mummer’s dragon.

A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd.

Dany later clarifies for Jorah:

“A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood... what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer’s dragon, you said. What is a mummer’s dragon, pray?”

“A cloth dragon on poles,” Dany explained. “Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight.”

Then much later, in ADWD, Quaithe warns Dany:

“No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.”

I’ve previously argued that the mummer’s dragon in Quaithe’s prophecy could be Quentyn (and Sun’s Son would be Aegon), but given that her mummer’s dragon and the one in Dany’s HOTU are likely the same, it almost certainly rules him out (poor guy never had a crowd cheering for him).

We’ve seen how Martin uses “mummer’s” in writing before; typically not as a possessive, but to mean “false,” typically in the phrase “mummer’s farce.”

"A voice from nowhere," Sandor said. He peered through his helm, looking this way and that. "Spirits of the air!"

The prince laughed, as he always laughed when his bodyguard did this mummer's farce. Tyrion was used to it. "Down here."

…

Ned studied the eunuch's face, searching for truth beneath the mummer's scars and false stubble. He tried some more wine. This time it went down easier. "Can you free me from this pit?"

Champions of the Aegon=BF theory often quote Illyrio’s line “black or red, a dragon is still a dragon” as strong evidence for his BF lineage. However, if this is the case, then Aegon would be no “mummer’s dragon” (read: false), but merely a black one.

Now, if Aegon=BF supporters would argue that in this case, “mummer’s dragon” is used in the possessive, that’s fine, albeit inconsistent with Martin’s previous uses of the term. Also, many are quick to argue that Dany’s vision about the mummer’s dragon was obviously showing a false/substitute dragon, which makes the possessive form seem unlikely. Still, there is no denying that Aegon is, in a sense, Varys’s.

As in that case, if Aegon is Varys’s dragon then supporters of the theory must argue why it is more likely for Aegon to be a BF than Rhaegar’s son. And that brings us to my second issue with BF theories: lack of actual evidence.

If we focus strictly on the text from ASOIAF, there’s little to recommend Aegon as a BF. The sum total of the BF evidence is as follows (spoiler tags for length of this post, mostly due to my block quotes):

(This is repurposed and slightly edited from another thread of mine…I’ll list the points first, then answer them)
a.) There is symbolism surrounding Blackfyres that is mentioned with the tavern sign.

“No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust.”

b.) The Golden Company has never broken a contract before, and would likely never do so unless to support Blackfyres.

"Sellswords break their contracts all the time"

“Not the Golden Company. Our word is good as gold has been their boast since the days of Bittersteel. Myr is on the point of war with Lys and Tyrosh. Why break a contract that offered them the prospect of good wages and good plunder?”

“Perhaps Lys offered them better wages. Or Tyrosh.”

“No,” she said. “I would believe it of any of the other free companies, yes. Most of them would change sides for half a groat. The Golden Company is different. A brotherhood of exiles and the sons of exiles, united by the dream of Bittersteel. It’s home they want, as much as gold. Lord Yronwood knows that as well as I do. His forebears rode with Bittersteel during three of the Blackfyre Rebellions.”

c.) Illyrio specifically mentions the “male-line” has died out…not that BFs have died out. Why would he say this unless the female line survived?

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. “Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre.” The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. “And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.”

Not to mention, in the same book, Rhaegar Frey (ick) makes note of how females of a line can be just as important:

As to the Starks, that House is extinguished only in the male line. Lord Eddard’s sons are dead, but his daughters live, and the younger girl is coming north to wed brave Ramsay Bolton.

d.) We get a lot of Blackfyre information, which seems very unnecessary otherwise.

Problems with this evidence:

a.) The tavern sign could also apply to the Golden Company. In fact it almost fits better in that case, because you could argue that the Golden Company was “hacked to pieces” moreso than Aegon (there’s been what, five rebellions?). Also, many of the popular BF theories place Aegon as being born in Essos, so he was never exactly “cast” into the river/sea. The GC was, however, multiple times (always retreating across the Narrow Sea).

It’s obviously not a perfect parallel one way or the other, but I think it’s hard to call it solid evidence for Aegon being a BF, when it could just as easily be nice foreshadowing for the GC’s shifted allegiance. If it was about Aegon, does that imply that there are two other BF heads out there, and only he is posing as a Targ? It could also have merely been a story by Septon Meribald to imply that there are healing powers on the QI.

b.) It is stated in the text (and confirmed by the Golden company) that they broke their contract for Dany. That is why Illyrio says “red or black, a dragon is still a dragon.” Tyrion does seem to think it odd that he takes this for granted, but the fact remains that the Golden Company did have every intention of declaring for Dany, and have held that intention for a while. If Aegon is a BF, then it’s possible the GC leaders know this, but there’s no textual evidence to support it. Not to mention Illyrio’s point about Dany giving the exiles a way to come home is a salient one: this is what they want.

“I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.”

“Myr.” Illyrio smirked. “Contracts can be broken.”

“There is more coin in cheese than I knew,” said Tyrion. “How did you accomplish that?”

The magister waggled his fat fingers. “Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more.”
…

“I admire your powers of persuasion,” Tyrion told Illyrio. “How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?”

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. “Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre.” The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. “And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.”

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back.Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

“I have had enough of Illyrio’s plans. Robert Baratheon won the Iron Throne without the benefit of dragons. We can do the same. And if I am wrong and the realm does not rise for us, we can always retreat back across the narrow sea, as Bittersteel once did, and others after him.”

Note that Tristan confirms they were going to break their contract for Viserys, who is definitively a Red Dragon.

As a side-note, why would Illyrio want to risk Tyrion figuring out the truth and say something so blandly if his end goal is truly to put a BF on the IT? Is his line suspect? Sure. But in the context of convincing Tyrion about their plan with the GC, it isn’t out of place. The “some contracts writ in ink, and others in blood” is intriguing, as the GC was founded by Bittersteel with the goal to be seating a BF on the throne. Yet it is likely they’d sign a contract “in blood” that promised to take them home…what the exiles have always wanted.

c.) It could just be because no one is sure of the female line, or because the idea of revenge and taking the throne from the Targaryens came from the male Blackfyres. Within this world, not much stock is held for women carrying out revenge.

"You are a woman, my lady," the Greatjon rumbled in his deep voice. "Women do not understand these things."

"You are the gentle sex," said Lord Karstark, with the lines of grief fresh on his face. "A man has a need for vengeance."

Also, there is heavy importance placed on an unbroken male line in Westeros. So Illyrio could have been saying that as his way of saying “they are finished.”

“Gerrick is the true and rightful king of the wildlings,” the queen said, “descended in an unbroken male line from their great king Raymun Red-beard, whereas the usurper Mance Rayder was born of some common woman and fathered by one of your black brothers.”

d.) There actually isn’t that much information on the Blackfyres in ASOIAF. The Dunk and Egg novellas are intended to stand-alone, and not provide spoilers for ASOIAF.

No Blackfyres are mentioned in the first two books, in ASOS they’re mentioned when Stannis is listing traitors, when Jaime is telling Brienne about Aerys (mentions that Robert was the biggest threat to the Targs since Daemon Blackfyre), when Cat is trying to talk Robb out of legitimizing Jon (legitimized bastards make trouble), and in the White Book under Barristan’s long entry.

In AFFC there is one mention, which is in the context of the Golden Company. In ADWD, all Blackfyre discussion is based around the Golden Company. Seeing as they’re now an army in Westeros fighting for Aegon, including their backstory makes sense.

There’s no real discussion of Blackfyres’ right to the throne, issue of succession, or anything. The information could all be viewed as providing context for the Golden Company, so it’s not like it would be out of place.

And that’s about all the text has to offer. I can’t even begin to address the leaps people have made from Illyrio having married a blonde whore to him suddenly being Aegon’s father and she’s the BF, or the Brightstar, or whatever. I understand why it’s appealing, but it should be in the “crackpot” category.

On the other hand, if Aegon the mummer’s [possessive] dragon is a Targ, that would be a better fit for the story given the emphasis placed on Rhaegar and his children (the entire Dornish plotline has been driven due to Elia & her children’s slaughter). Yes, the only thing we have to verify that he’s truly Aegon VI Targaryen is the word of Varys and Illyrio. But from a narrative standpoint, it would mean more to ASOIAF than a BF lineage would. Maelys Blackfyre was slain 40 years ago, and since then, the political focus has shifted drastically. People rallying to the BFs seems like it would come out of the blue, whereas the Targ dynasty is still omnipresent in the minds of the Westerosi.

Admittedly, I’ve only read the two D&E graphic novels that are out, so mayhaps once I finally read the three novellas, I’ll feel differently, but those stories are implied as being separate from ASOIAF.

And maybe that’s the crux of it for me, and also my third issue: what would Aegon being a BF add? Who cares? Varys and Illyrio could never actually admit his true lineage if this were the case, so if Aegon ends up sitting on the IT, it would all be so that two foreigners would be content in knowing they served the BF line?

I think it is far likelier that Aegon is a Targ (if he’s a dragon at all…him being the Pisswater Prince is certainly fine by me, and not at all improbable). Keep in mind what Illyrio and Varys’s con was:

Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city’s footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they’d stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice.

Let’s look at it in the context of their play right now:
Varys spied on lesser thieves (Robert and the rebels) and took their takings (Aegon). I offered my help to their victims (Dany & Viserys), promising to recover their valuables for a fee (likely influence and power in this case).

This would actually vaguely explain why Varys was willing to undermine Rhaegar’s supposed coup and destabilize the Targ dynasty. His way to gaining influence and power is through the Targ’s losses. It’s not to say that he foresaw all of RR’s when he told Aerys about Whent’s Tourney, but that having a weaker ruler gave him more opportunity to increase his influence/power than he would have had under Rhaegar’s rule. Fortunately for Varys, Rhaegar did most of the destabilization himself. As to whether he stole the true Aegon, or saw an opportunity given the state of Aegon’s corpse and raised the Pisswater Prince to be him is unclear, and probably will remain so. But IMO, this scenario seems far more likely (and evidenced in the text) than Aegon being a BF.

[Ser Eric]

Good point about the mummers dragon. Never thought about it like that but makes complete sense. 'Dragon' at this point refers to anyone with Targaryen blood inlcuding BF's.

I'm astounded by how popular the BF theory actually is. The only 'evidence' for it is a flimsy bit of foreshadowing that could mean just about anything. Utterly crackpot.

And given that Aegon himself believes he's a Targ, there's very little payoff if he's a BF.

He's either real or some random guy Varys plucked out. I don't think we are ever going to find out for certain so I'm happy to believe he's real until proven othereise.

[Frey family reunion]

I think the pro Blackfyre argument would be that Young Griff is the mummer's dragon for two reasons:

1. He is being championed and supported by a mummer, Varys.

2. While he may be a dragon (a black one) he is still not who he is claimed to be. In which case, Moqorro's vision of a dragon(s) true and false could point to him as well. He is a false dragon in that he is not Rhaegar's son, but he is a true dragon in that he is a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre.

[Lord Damian]

The Golden company is HUGE. They were founded with the base purpose of placing a decendent of Daemon Blackfyre on the iron throne.

[RedShirt47]

I was unconvinced by the BF theory until I read the BrightFyre theory. The Addendum to that also has some nice allusions and hints.

I used to think it was rather obscure and overly convoluted and complicated an already complicated plot line. But when I read the Brightfyre theory a lot of pieces clicked into place.

And I do agree that the theory has no real conclusive evidence but the amount of hints and clues are impressive. Mostly what it has going for it (I think) is it fits narratively. So many theories ignore the narrative and concentrate on coincidences even though there is little logic behind the theory. Like R+L=D, how does this fit into the story?

[Chebyshov]

@Lord Damian Yeah, but the officers explicitly tell us about their plans to meet up with Dany, whom they know to be a red dragon.

“One broken contract is stain enough upon the honor of the company.” Homeless Harry Strickland paused with his blistered foot in hand. “Let me remind you, it was Myles Toyne who put his seal to this secret pact, not me. I would honor his agreement if I could, but how? It seems plain to me

that the Targaryen girl is never coming west. Westeros was her father’s kingdom. Meereen is hers. If she can break the Yunkai’i, she’ll be Queen of Slaver’s Bay. If not, she’ll die long before we could hope to reach her.”

And there's also the scene where Aegon convinces them to back him over Dany, and we see where most of their heads are at:

“It is,” Aegon replied eagerly. “If my aunt wants Meereen, she’s welcome to it. I will claim the Iron Throne by myself, with your swords and your allegiance. Move fast and strike hard, and we can win some easy victories before the Lannisters even know that we have landed. That will bring others to our cause.”

Rivers was smiling in approval. Others traded thoughtful looks. Then Peake said, “I would sooner die in Westeros than on the demon road,” and Marq Mandrake chuckled and responded, “Me, I’d sooner live, win lands and some great castle,” and Franklyn Flowers slapped his sword hilt and said, “So long as I can kill some Fossoways, I’m for it.”

[Julia Martell]

Yes, at this point fAegon=Blackfyre is a "just so" story, but it's such a NICE "just so" story.

And I'm sorry that you don't like the term fAegon, but it's quite convenient, and makes it easy to distinguish the Young Griff guy who may or may not be Aegon, with the infant son of Elia and Rhaegar. So I'll continue to use it, if you'll forgive me.

[Chebyshov]

Yes, at this point fAegon=Blackfyre is a "just so" story, but it's such a NICE "just so" story.

And I'm sorry that you don't like the term fAegon, but it's quite convenient, and makes it easy to distinguish the Young Griff guy who may or may not be Aegon, with the infant son of Elia and Rhaegar. So I'll continue to use it, if you'll forgive me.

It is rather nice and clean, and maybe TWOW will be giving us even more evidence to back it, at which point I'll kindly shut my pie-hole.

Your use of "fAegon" is certainly acceptable (IIRC aren't you the one who uses "sweet summer children" over "Unsullied" for show watchers?). But I generally see it being used in more of a pejorative sense, and given the lack of certainty about his identity, I don't like the leap to assume that he's fraudulent. Point taken, though; it is hard to distinguish who we mean at times, especially in light of the six true Aegons in the universe.

[Julia Martell]

It is rather nice and clean, and maybe TWOW will be giving us even more evidence to back it, at which point I'll kindly shut my pie-hole.

Your use of "fAegon" is certainly acceptable (IIRC aren't you the one who uses "sweet summer children" over "Unsullied" for show watchers?). But I generally see it being used in more of a pejorative sense, and given the lack of certainty about his identity, I don't like the leap to assume that he's fraudulent. Point taken, though; it is hard to distinguish who we mean at times, especially in light of the six true Aegons in the universe.

No, I think I've been using Unsullied more lately.

Sweet Summer Children are those show watcher who say things like "OMG, I wonder what Robb and Talisa are going to name their baby! I bet it's Ned!"

[Chebyshov]

No, I think I've been using Unsullied more lately.

Sweet Summer Children are those show watcher who say things like "OMG, I wonder what Robb and Talisa are going to name their baby! I bet it's Ned!"

Haaa, that's my sister in a nutshell. She watches because she likes Nat Dormer's dresses.

[Julia Martell]

Haaa, that's my sister in a nutshell. She watches because she likes Nat Dormer's dresses.

I think we might have the same sister.

She the one who didn't know who Rheagar was.

[In A Coat of Gold]

It's too convoluted and has little to no basis in the main story. There are less than five mentions of the Blackfyre Rebellion in the main books, and it is only central in the last D&E novella. There are a ton of Dany and Jon fans who don't want to see their favorite characters claim (in Jon's case specious since he's a bastard) to the IT, but remember, no King has had a POV. Aegon is almost assuredly real, and he's probably going to win.

[Game Of Thrones]

The thing that really confirmed fAegon Blackfyre to me was the story about the black dragon at the inn that Lord Darry cut down. When it washed up, "it was red with rust".

And calling Young Griff fAegon helps to differentiate Elia's child from Young Griff, like in discussions where we discuss fAegon's parentage.

[Julia Martell]

It's too convoluted and has little to no basis in the main story. There are less than five mentions of the Blackfyre Rebellion in the main books, and it is only central in the last D&E novella. There are a ton of Dany and Jon fans who don't want to see their favorite characters claim (in Jon's case specious since he's a bastard) to the IT, but remember, no King has had a POV. Aegon is almost assuredly real, and he's probably going to win.

You really think the series is going to end with a Targaryan restoration?

Okay. :dunno:

(I disagree.)

[Chebyshov]

I think we might have the same sister.

She the one who didn't know who Rheagar was.

:lmao: amazing. It's stuff like this which makes me judge the show-runners less harshly for excluding plots like Ramsay being Reek first, or Arianne's inheritance (actually no, the latter is never going to be okay with me).

I was unconvinced by the BF theory until I read the BrightFyre theory. The Addendum to that also has some nice allusions and hints.

I used to think it was rather obscure and overly convoluted and complicated an already complicated plot line. But when I read the Brightfyre theory a lot of pieces clicked into place.

Just saw this. I do agree that the there's parts of the BF or Brightfyre theory that are compelling, but still unfounded in the text (as In A Coat of Gold pointed out too). Maybe TWOW will really help fill in these blanks or provide more evidence, but aside from being a kind of neat story, it just isn't there. Of course, I'm also biased in that I'd find Aegon being the PWP or the real-deal far more interesting than being a BF.

@A Game of Thrones, I addressed that under the spoiler tag. I just don't see it being a great fit, but I do understand why some look to that. IMO that was almost a more telling narrative about the QI and its role than anything else.

[Julia Martell]

:lmao: amazing. It's stuff like this which makes me judge the show-runners less harshly for excluding plots like Ramsay being Reek first, or Arianne's inheritance (actually no, the latter is never going to be okay with me).

They missed a golden opportunity for more dresses!

The Blackfyre Theory also gives Varys a motive, which is awesome.

[In A Coat of Gold]

You really think the series is going to end with a Targaryan restoration?

Okay. :dunno:

(I disagree.)

It'd make a lot more sense since the War of The Roses ended with a Red Dragon Henry Tudor on the throne.

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

Let’s look at it in the context of their play right now:

Varys spied on lesser thieves (Robert and the rebels) and took their takings (Aegon). I offered my help to their victims (Dany & Viserys), promising to recover their valuables for a fee (likely influence and power in this case).

I've been saying this for years. I'm glad someone else had the same thought.

[RedShirt47]

It'd make a lot more sense since the War of The Roses ended with a Red Dragon Henry Tudor on the throne.

He invented the Tudor rose, both Red and White. Through marriage he united House Lancaster and House York. Henry Tudor was from a legitismised bastard line which would fit Blackfyre better.

So if Aegon (or his heir) married Dany or Jon (or their heir) this would fit.

ETA, an Aegon Jon marriage might not work though :) not much chance of an heir...

[Julia Martell]

He invented the Tudor rose, both Red and White. Through marriage he united House Lancaster and House York. Henry Tudor was from a legitismised bastard line which would fit Blackfyre better.

So if Aegon (or his heir) married Dany or Jon (or their heir) this would fit.

This. Harry T's claims to being a Lancaster were a little laughable, actually.

And also, I think we all take this Wars of the Roses parallel thing too far sometimes.