Plausible Aegon at the Tower of Joy (Theory / Experiment)

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

This post was born of the fact that - five books into this saga - it seems credible to me, if not likely, that the three Kingsguard knights (Hightower, Whent, and Dayne) were guarding the tower of joy in order to protect Rhaegar's son, Aegon Targaryen - rather than the son of Lyanna Stark. So, outlining a plausible (acceptable, credible) scenario is the name of the game - and for the sake of credibility and giving Aegon a fair hearing, my suggestion is that Lyanna Stark and Jon Snow should be left out of the argument. I realize that might seem hard for some folks, but what I'm interested in is whether there is a sensible scenario in which Aegon himself could have been present at the tower of joy and, if so, how that might affect our understanding of the larger story.

In ADWD, we are presented with the claim that young Aegon was removed from King's Landing prior to the Sack. If the Aegon/Young Griff storyline is at all creditable, there must be enough space within Martin's narrative framework for the infant's rescue to have occured. Granted, such "space" may be all we can expect from Martin given the large gaps in information currently available from that piece of his story. But then, that is a problem shared by any theory attempting to reconstruct the events of Robert's Rebellion. All such theories - and particularly theories concerning the Sack and the encounter at the tower of joy - are inherently problematic, simply because we're working with an incomplete set of facts (for now). That said, if it is possible that young Aegon lived, and had been removed from King's Landing by the time Ned rode south "to fight the last battles of the war alone," then the presence of the Kingsguard itself begins to look like a big hint that Aegon could have been at the tower of joy.

My argument here would be that, if the presence and activity of the KG is ultimately justified by the duty to protect a child, then assuming he was alive, the child best positioned for that role would be Aegon Targaryen. Aegon, who we have been told survived the Sack, and who we know was already pegged (by his own father) for the role of "prince that was promised." In other words, if the 3KG were "on assignment" to protect an important child, then either way you slice it - politically or prophetically - Aegon would fit the bill.

So, how does this play out? How could it possibly fit into the narrative as we know it? Here is my suggestion for a plausible* reading of storylines that would allow for the possibility that Aegon was taken from King's Landing to the tower of joy, and ultimately out of Westeros altogether.

Plausible Aegon: A Reconsideration of Storylines

Young Griff tells Tyrion that he was quietly removed from King's Landing by Varys, who provided Princess Elia with an impostor child to take his place (the "Pisswater Prince"). This would have saved young Aegon from murder at the hands of the Lannister men (Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch), but depending on when he was removed from the city, it would not necessarily have been the Lannisters posed the greatest threat to the child. I propose that Aegon Targaryen was hidden away well prior to the Sack - in fact, it may have been prior to Rhaegar's departure for the Trident.

Start with the idea that the initial plan would have been to protect Aegon from Mad King Aerys... not from Gregor Clegane. Remember, Aerys had already threatened Elia and her children - holding them as hostages to compel Dornish support in the war. That was right after the Battle of the Bells, before Rhaegar "returned from the south" (or around the same time)... when Aerys sent Lewyn Martell to take command of the Dornish forces that were "coming up the Kingsroad." Later, after Rhaegar's death on the Trident, Aerys would refuse to let Elia and her children leave King's Landing - though he sends his own wife and children to Dragonstone as the Usurper's armies close in on the city. Clearly Aerys' paranoia and mistrust had poisoned him, making him a threat to his grandchildren's lives and safety. Jon Connington later reflects that "by the end, even Rhaegar saw that plain enough."

Given Aerys' increasing madness, it's not hard to imagine Rhaegar taking the precaution of removing his son from the Red Keep prior to riding north into battle. Especially as the alternative seems to have been leaving his heir as the centerpiece of a hostage situation - and win or lose the war, the child would not have been safe from his own grandfather. My guess would be that Rhaegar ordered Varys to make the arrangements after he'd returned to the Red Keep and seen his father's agitated state of mind. He may even have had the opportunity to kiss his son goodbye.

Regarding the question of who, if anyone, would have been privy to this plan - I would say as few as possible. And there are certain parties that I think we could rule out entirely, though under different circumstances we might expect them to have been involved. The Martells for instance. While we might think Sunspear would be a natural ally (the Martells being family and all), I'd expect Rhaegar to have been quite hesitant about involving them in the process of hiding Aegon. And particularly if he had hopes of salvaging any trust or relationship with his father. After all, sending Aegon to Dorne would only confirm the worst of Aerys' paranoia - the very reason for holding his grandchildren hostage was that he believed the Dornish were conspiring behind his back. It's also worth considering whether Aerys' increasing madness had already begun to take its toll on the KG. Remember, Aerys is holding hostages to ensure the loyalty of one of his KG knights (Lewyn Martell)... and by the time of the Trident the senior six all seem rather fine with leaving the King at the Red Keep with only the newest and youngest of their crew (Jaime) to protect him.

Assuming Aegon was removed from King's Landing (and the claim is made in ADWD that he was)... then he was still young enough that he would have needed a wetnurse, especially if he was to be separated from his mother. So, we can safely assume that Aegon would have been accompanied by at least 2 adults - a wetnurse, and a formidable bodyguard that could be trusted with the utmost secrecy. If Aegon made it all the way to the tower of joy, then that would put another woman on the scene (a wetnurse... possibly a midwife, in a pinch). And it's at least possible that Gerold Hightower filled the role of bodyguard.

Why Lord Commander Hightower? Well, the general assumption seems to be that Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent typically traveled around with Rhaegar wherever he was. Whether or not that was the case, we have no record of either of them in attendance with Rhaegar at the Red Keep. I've read others who've suggested that they were left to guard a certain northman's daughter for the crown prince - and having no desire to pick a fight, I'm sort of fine with that. But Lord Commander Hightower also left King's Landing at some point along the way. Could he have been sent to escort young Aegon to safety? The only text we have that places Hightower at the Red Keep is Jaime's memory of the execution of Rickard and Brandon Stark - so, "close to a year" before the confrontation at the tower. There is no record of Hightower between the Stark roast in the throne room, and the tower of joy. When Jaime recalls the departure of Rhaegar for the Trident, the only other KG he identifies as present are Darry and Selmy. So by the time Rhaegar leaves Jaime at the Red Keep, we know Lewyn Martell had already been sent (by Aerys) to take command of the Dornish forces. We know Darry and Selmy were with Rhaegar. We do not know the whereabouts of Hightower, Dayne, or Whent at that time, but we do know they were not present at the Trident. Assuming Dayne and Whent were otherwise occupied, that would leave Hightower the job of protecting the young prince, and the secret of his journey south.

So Rhaegar sends his son south, away from his grandfather the Mad King... and eventually heads off to war himself and dies. Shortly thereafter, as Robert's forces near the city under Ned's command, Tywin Lannister sacks the city of King's Landing and sends his men into Maegor's Holdfast to murder the Targaryen children. Varys aside - as far as anyone knows at that point in time, young Aegon Targaryen is dead.

Recalling the day Lord Tywin presented the bodies of dead children before Robert in the throne room, Ned himself remembers "Rhaegar's infant son, the red ruin of his skull." Yet assuming that young Aegon escaped the city and was still alive, there is no undisputed evidence in our text that Ned Stark ever laid eyes on young Aegon Targaryen, alive or dead. And so there is no reason to expect that he would have recognized the child by sight if he had seen him. I mention that only to preempt the argument that Ned would have known the child, had Aegon been at the tower of joy when he arrived. Yet Ned may not have seen the boy anyway. The role of the Kingsguard includes both the protection of both the royal family and the protection of their secrets. Assuming Aegon lived, his survival would clearly have qualified as a secret - the secret - important enough that the KG would have given their lives to protect it. And perhaps that was the role played by the three Kingsguard knights at the tower of joy: to confront and delay Ned Stark and company long enough to ensure that Aegon Targaryen would not be overtaken and discovered. If that was their goal, then it appears they succeeded in the task. And to the extent their success allowed Aegon the that chance - for escape, and for freedom - this scenario would provide additional context to the exchange at the end of Ned's fever dream:

"And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends."

Thoughts?

* It's been pointed out to me that the word "plausible" might be taken to mean "probable." In my use of the word, I merely intend to describe a scenario that is credible or acceptable within the confines of the story Martin has published to date. I have edited this OP in an attempt to clarify that point.

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[anonnyscouse]

You can't remove Lyanna from TToJ because one of the only certainties we have is that Lyanna was there.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

You can't remove Lyanna from TToJ because one of the only certainties we have is that Lyanna was there.

Okay. I've now edited the first paragraph to make that easier. Really I'm not terribly interested in arguing that issue, as it doesn't necessarily affect my point.

[The Snark of Winterfell]

I love crackpot theories, I think you should label it as a theory rather than possible spoilers for that sake.

I think there is plausibility to fAegon being real, and you don't want to argue Lyanna, but she was there covered in blood and the promise, I really think she gave birth there and KG was there under orders.

There are some problems with R+L=J, the KG

[Ser Leftwich]

So Aegon was taken to the ToJ, for protection, and then the KG stayed there while he was taken away?

Why would one or more of the KG not stay with Aegon?

ETA: Possible and plausible are different.

What does this add to the story? How would we readers find out about it?

[The Snark of Winterfell]

The KG being there is the biggest prob. But given the facts we know, Sean beam being a jackass, and grrm stating that the show creators guessed what I assume is that question I think it's R+L=J

[Jon's Queen Consort]

And why Elia was with a nobody rather than being with Rhaenys?

[No Song so Sweet]

The KG being there is the biggest prob. But given the facts we know, Sean beam being a jackass, and grrm stating that the show creators guessed what I assume is that question I think it's R+L=J

The writers didn't guess the ending correctly, not necessarily. If you see the Comic Con part in the beginning when D&D speak they say that Martin asked them who Jon's parents are and they gave an answer. Then Martin didn't comment on it but he said that he would do the show. So their answer was good enough for someone to know they kind of understand the books but maybe it wasnt absolutely a bullseye or something that you can predict easily.

About the theory, I think a lot of speculation makes it unlikely. It creates a lot of questions even if we disregard Jon's parentage.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

The writers didn't guess the ending correctly, not necessarily. If you see the Comic Con part in the beginning when D&D speak they say that Martin asked them who Jon's parents are and they gave an answer. Then Martin didn't comment on it but he said that he would do the show. So their answer was good enough for someone to know they kind of understand the books but maybe it wasnt absolutely a bullseye or something that you can predict easily.

About the theory, I think a lot of speculation makes it unlikely. It creates a lot of questions even if we disregard Jon's parentage.

The writers guessed Jon's mother's identity correctly. GRRM TOLD them the ending.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

I love crackpot theories, I think you should label it as a theory rather than possible spoilers for that sake.

I think there is plausibility to fAegon being real, and you don't want to argue Lyanna, but she was there covered in blood and the promise, I really think she gave birth there and KG was there under orders.

There are some problems with R+L=J, the KG...

...The KG being there is the biggest prob. But given the facts we know, Sean beam being a jackass, and grrm stating that the show creators guessed what I assume is that question I think it's R+L=J

I could live with calling it a "theory" - the thing is, I'm not pushing it as likely or even an idea I necessarily like. It's more like a test, or an experiment, based on the premise that we should be able to construct a plausible account for Young Griff's Targaryen claim in order to take Martin's writing seriously. So maybe I should have called it the "Plausible Aegon Experiment"? And to be fair... it does involve spoilers. :)

[tyrions@]

Maybe Varys brought Aegon to the tower of joy because he thought that would be the safest place for him after the sack of kings landing.

The kingsguard would already be there under orders of Rhaegar to protect Lyanna and his soon to be third child. Later when Ned comes for Lyanna the kingsguard try and stop Ned because Aegon is there and would be ahead of Viserys in line of succession. After the kingsguard are killed trying to protect their new king Aegon, Ned finds Lyanna giving birth to Jon. I'm not a big fan of Septa Lemore being Ashara Dayne but maybe when Ned brought back Dawn he also brought Aegon with him and Ashara faked her death in order to spend the rest of her life protecting Aegon.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

So Aegon was taken to the ToJ, for protection, and then the KG stayed there while he was taken away?

Why would one or more of the KG not stay with Aegon?

ETA: Possible and plausible are different.

What does this add to the story? How would we readers find out about it?

Re: why one or more of the KG would not have stayed with Aegon... there may be more than one answer to that. But my initial response would be that all three were needed to hold off Ned and his men. In the end, it turns out that even 3 KG knights were not enough to defeat the northmen; so it certainly looks like they needed all the firepower they could muster.

With respect to what "this" adds to the story, I believe I laid that out at the beginning of my OP - but it depends on what you mean by "this." I'm not wedded to the particular details I've put together. But a believable account of young Aegon's whereabouts and journey following his removal from King's Landing seems like a necessary component of this story if we want to be fair to Martin. Otherwise, the Young Griff storyline suffers from a lack of credibility.

And why Elia was with a nobody rather than being with Rhaenys?

Not sure I understand this question. Do you mean that Elia would have wanted to be with her daughter, instead of hanging with a child that was not her own? Seems to me that this would have been a key component of the deception. Assuming Aegon was removed from the Red Keep, the best and most effective way to hide his absence would be for Elia to hold "her son" close at all times. Not only does that prevent anyone from recognizing the switch, but it "authenticates" the child if there is any question - after all, who knows him better than his own mother?

[Ygrain]

As said above, you cannot exclude Lyanna, bed of blood and the promise from the ToJ scenario.

The issues in what you propose are these:

1. cooperation with Varys who had been driving a wedge between Aerys and Rhaegar and fuelling Aerys' paranoia

2. Rhaegar seeing his own father as a danger to his children

3. Hightower is unaccounted for ever since he was sent to fatch Rhaegar. If he never returned to KL after that, he couldn't have been Aegon's bodyguard. If he took Aegon along before that, then he couldn't be acting on Rhaegar's orders.

As for the general issues that I posted in the R+L thread:

- logistics and timeframe of smuggling Aegon from KL to ToJ (why travel across the whole continent when a ship to Essos is right at hand just to put both your eggs in the same basket, the involvement of Elia and servants):

Covered partly. Why do you propose that Rhaegar chose ToJ instead of Essos, Dragonstone or Starfall - given Varys' cooperation in your scenario, there is no need for a secluded location where no-one ever goes.

- Ned thinking Aegon dead but still considering the KG explanation of their presence satisfactory and not detracting from them being shining examples of KG

Not covered. If Ned doesn't know that Aegon was alive and at ToJ, he would perceive the KG as in dereliction of their first duty to Viserys and hence oathbreakers. - That's basically one of the main notions of the dialogue: why are you here and not anywhere else where you are supposed to be? What duty keeps you here? - We swore a vow.

- convoluted presence of two plot-important mysteries in the same location (because if Jon is not legit, he is still R+L)

This is where you just cannot leave out Lyanna and the fact that Rhaegar hardly called the place "tower of joy" just because he played Lyanna sad songs in moonlight.

- zero text hints (nothing to be tied to the story of the Pisswater Prince or anything else Aegon-related)

While you're creating a not entirely implausible scenario, there is really nothing to pin this on.

- "dragons true and false" and "cloth dragon on poles" aka the mummer's dragon hint at a pretender some time in the story, and if it's not fAegon, then whom?

Not covered.

BTW, how do you suggest that Aegon got from ToJ to Essos?

[Chebyshov]

"Plausible." You keep using that word...I don't think it means what you think it means.

[Le Cygne]

This is where you just cannot leave out Lyanna and the fact that Rhaegar hardly called the place "tower of joy" just because he played Lyanna sad songs in moonlight.

Exactly...

[In A Coat of Gold]

The Varys story is extremely believable on its own. Arya escaped the city having been there less than a year with everyone looking for her. Varys is the most knowledgeable of the corridors under the Red Keep and has already plainly smuggled Tyrion out too. Aegon is real, folks.

[Ygrain]

The Varys story is extremely believable on its own. Arya escaped the city having been there less than a year with everyone looking for her. Varys is the most knowledgeable of the corridors under the Red Keep and has already plainly smuggled Tyrion out too. Aegon is real, folks.

Care to adress any of the points raised above?

[Ser Duncan the Small]

Re: why one or more of the KG would not have stayed with Aegon... there may be more than one answer to that. But my initial response would be that all three were needed to hold off Ned and his men. In the end, it turns out that even 3 KG knights were not enough to defeat the northmen; so it certainly looks like they needed all the firepower they could muster.

With respect to what "this" adds to the story, I believe I laid that out at the beginning of my OP - but it depends on what you mean by "this." I'm not wedded to the particular details I've put together. But a believable account of young Aegon's whereabouts and journey following his removal from King's Landing seems like a necessary component of this story if we want to be fair to Martin. Otherwise, the Young Griff storyline suffers from a lack of credibility.

Not sure I understand this question. Do you mean that Elia would have wanted to be with her daughter, instead of hanging with a child that was not her own? Seems to me that this would have been a key component of the deception. Assuming Aegon was removed from the Red Keep, the best and most effective way to hide his absence would be for Elia to hold "her son" close at all times. Not only does that prevent anyone from recognizing the switch, but it "authenticates" the child if there is any question - after all, who knows him better than his own mother?

I understand this theory somewhat, but why send Aegon out to ToJ when the Blackwater is right there? I don't think that is a wise plan, risking somebody (and who) to take Aegon through the Stormlands to the border of Dorne and then send him away through the Sea of Dorne once Pisswater Prince is dead. Also, why would Elia consent to just Aegon being gone? Why would she risk Rhaenys willingly, if there were that strong of concerns about KL holding then why wouldn't they all leave?

[The Ned's Little Girl]

First implausibility: If Rhaegar feared his father's actions toward his children, why did he only smuggle one out? Why not both, and his wife too, while he was at it? And what about the whole "dragon must have 3 heads" deal? If he believed he already had the first two with his kids, why wouldn't he save both?

Second implausibility: If Elia was complicit in the baby swap, why would she not also insist on smuggling out her daughter too? (As well as why would she protect a pisswater prince over her own child as was mentioned before.) Also, even if it was all Varys' doing, he still would have required Elia's cooperation. I can see Varys having no interest in saving the mere daughter, but as the price of Elia's cooperation, it would be really odd if she didn't require Varys to make arrangements to save Rhaenys as well.

For Aegon to have been actually smuggled out to the ToJ just leaves too many questions that can't be explained. Also, trying to make this theory plausible requires characters to behave in really odd ways that don't make much sense and/or in ways that contradict what we do know about them.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I just don't see any reason why Aegon would have been removed before there was any threat. Past that, I don't see why he would be with the woman his dad is "cheating"/"whatever you want to call it ing" on his mom with, rather than some place like Dragonstone or Sunspear.

Just because something is possible, doesn't mean there is any reason for it.