[Analysis] Who is older: Robb or Jon?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yes.... Unless they're twins..... :leaving:

But I'm confused Rhaenys. What's your position exactly? Are we on the same side? What are we arguing about? Where am I? My head hurts.

I'm completely torn :p

Timeline logic would suggest that Jon is the oldest.. But Catelyn isn't an idiot, and would know that if Jon is older, than he wasn't conceived after her marriage, which she seems to believe..

So basically, this is just an attempt to figure out what was when and why..

Wasn't Jon born within a few weeks of the sack? Is there any indication of when Robb was born relative to that event?

Jon was born in the timeframe of one week before the sack, up to three weeks after.

We have no hint on Robb :p That's part the problem

[RumHam]

Interesting analysis as always it's impressive how much you're able to piece together about the timeline. Hopefully the worldbook will gave dates for some of the major events of the rebellion that should make it easier.

[Mychel_Redfort]

If Jon is younger than Robb, it does give a few problems. For instance, why would Catelyn fear that Jon's children will become a problem with the Winterfell inheritance?

If Robb dies, a legitimized Jon or his children would be a threat to Bran's claim, whether Jon is older or younger than Robb, no ?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

If Robb dies, a legitimized Jon or his children would be a threat to Bran's claim, whether Jon is older or younger than Robb, no ?

That would depend on the inheritance laws (which we also don't know exactly, because there are no exact laws, unfortunately). If Jon is the eldest, and he's legitimized, would he then become the heir? I personally think not, but it would give him a better claim, and his children, should any of them ever want to try and steal Winterfell Blackfyre-style.

Or are legitimized children in the line of inheritance only after all trueborn children? Or only after all trueborn sons? Or do they specifically have to be added to the line of succession?

If we knew the exact answers to all these questions, perhaps we could understand Cat's fear better, and judge what part it plays in the "who is the eldest?" question.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Catelyn believes that Lysa's match to Jon Arryn was arranged because Jon Arryn's last heir had died. Jon's last heir was killed during the Battle of the Bells.

It's Harwin the one telling Arya that story. He could be wrong, indeed, or having wrong some facts, but according to him, and what it looks to have been quite a "legendary" battle that mostly would know, JC not only killed Arryn but also, hurt Hoster. Wouldn't Hoster join AFTER the marriage? Or at least, after a betrothal was announced?

[Julia Martell]

It's Harwin the one telling Arya that story. He could be wrong, indeed, or having wrong some facts, but according to him, and what it looks to have been quite a "legendary" battle that mostly would know, JC not only killed Arryn but also, hurt Hoster. Wouldn't Hoster join AFTER the marriage? Or at least, after a betrothal was announced?

That's why I've always it was after the wedding. But I always take the text at face value unless given a very good reason to do otherwise, to avoid Wylla Mandwely is the "real" Danaerys territory.

Harwin wasn't there at either or both events, was he?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

That's why I've always it was after the wedding. But I always take the text at face value unless given a very good reason to do otherwise, to avoid Wylla Mandwely is the "real" Danaerys territory.

Harwin wasn't there at either or both events, was he?

What both events? the wedding or the BotB?

[Julia Martell]

What both events? the wedding or the BotB?

Yeah. Did he get to see Cat's boobs?

And Bob's penis. Probably.

[Maester Crypt]

Winter January-March

1. Battle of Bells
   
2. Ned/Cat wedding(Robbs conception)
   
3. Jon Connington exiled, Qarlton Chelstad named Hand
   
4. Gerold Hightower sent to find Rhaegar
   

Spring April-June

1. HIghtower finds Rhaegar
   
2. Hightower stays at TOJ
   
3. Rhaegar returns to Kings Landing to lead the Kings army to battle
   

Summer July - September

1. Battle of Trident
   
2. Rhaegar dead, Robert injured
   
3. Ned leads vanguard to Kings Landing
   
4. Tywin rushes to Kings Landing from Casterly Rock
   

Autumn October - December

1. Aerys wants to burn the city down, Chelsted resigns as Hand in protest and is consequently burned
   
2. Aerys aroused watching Chelsted burn ravages his wife that night (conception of Dany)
   
3. Aerys sends his wife and kids with Derry to Dragonstone
   
4. Tywin at the gates, the sacking of Kings Landing, the murder of Elia and her children
   
5. Ned arrives waits for Robert
   
6. They argue over the death of the children, Ned storms off to End Siege of Storms End
   
7. The Tower of Joy
   

Accepting all births are around 9 months.

We know Robb is most likely conceived in early Winter with conception being early Autumn

Hightower is sent out after the failure of the BOTB to find Rhaegar and we know Jon is born in the same year as Robb.

The last possible conception of Jon is late Winter with a birth in late Autumn

All this shows is Jon has the possibility be a month or two younger than Robb in the timeline but also that he could be a little older too.

Don't know if it helps at all.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

It's Harwin the one telling Arya that story. He could be wrong, indeed, or having wrong some facts, but according to him, and what it looks to have been quite a "legendary" battle that mostly would know, JC not only killed Arryn but also, hurt Hoster. Wouldn't Hoster join AFTER the marriage? Or at least, after a betrothal was announced?

Harwin tells us that Denys died during the Battle of the Bells, but to be fair, so does LF in Feast.

I've always seen this event as a battle that, though everyone knew such a battle was coming, they had expected that Robert would be able to make his was to Riverrun (or wherever the meeting place was) just fine. However, he got injured, and was chased by a much more effectual Hand of the King. That was never the plan, and the battle thus was an attempt to safe Robert (which obviously was a succes).

I agree that Hoster wouldn't join just like that, so I believe that they had originally planned for the wedding to take place first, and Hoster to join in the battles later, but that necessity made it be otherwise..

Searching for the "Denys died at BotB" accounts, I just saw that Denys had a son, (who thus logically would be Jon Arryn's new heir, right?) who died after Denys (not all too long, but according to LF, after Jon Arryns wedding to Lysa)

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Yeah. Did he get to see Cat's boobs?

And Bob's penis. Probably.

Everybody from the Stoney Sept saw Bob's penis, apparently :dunno:

Whatever, I'm checking my book (in Spanish, which I don't completely trust, btw), but according to Harwin, Ned and Hoster got there together, for the final battle. Now, Hardin is as unreliable as Cat could be. He said JC never fought Robert, but someone else claims they did (can't remember). Cat does mentions that Arryn lost heirs in the Rebellion, but Jon could have wanted an heir of his own despite Denys being still alive. He died during the Battle, when Ned and Hoster arrived, and it is known that Hoster was hurt. It is also known that the marriage was arranged because Arryn needed the Tully swords, and they had a double wedding. So, it's likely they had the marriage before the Battle, and then, Ned, Jon and Hoster parted together to SS.

[Ghost's Shadow]

I thought Ned didn't allow them to de-robe Cat (and him).

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Everybody from the Stoney Sept saw Bob's penis, apparently :dunno:

Whatever, I'm checking my book (in Spanish, which I don't completely trust, btw), but according to Harwin, Ned and Hoster got there together, for the final battle. Now, Hardin is as unreliable as Cat could be. He said JC never fought Robert, but someone else claims they did (can't remember). Cat does mentions that Arryn lost heirs in the Rebellion, but Jon could have wanted an heir of his own despite Denys being still alive. He died during the Battle, when Ned and Hoster arrived, and it is known that Hoster was hurt. It is also known that the marriage was arranged because Arryn needed the Tully swords, and they had a double wedding. So, it's likely they had the marriage before the Battle, and then, Ned, Jon and Hoster parted together to SS.

It is specifically stated by multiple sources that Elbert died in KL prior to the Rebellion, and Denys died in the Battle of the Bells. Catelyn specifically meantions that after Denys' death, Jon Arryn needed a new heir.

[Consigliere]

If that quote is taken to mean: "I fathered Jon after I was married to Catelyn. She was already pregnant, by then." That would require Ned to have learned of Cat's pregnancy.

As we read in the books, when "their blood" hadn't come at the accustomed time, both Cat and Lysa had believed they were pregnant. However, Lysa's moon blood came soon after. Though Cat, since 2 weeks after her wedding night could have suspected a pregnancy, announcing her pregnancy to her husband at war would most likely have come somewhat later, when everyone was certain that she was pregnant. Like, when the swelling of the belly begins, around the 2nd or 3rd month. Then, that message would need to reach Ned, who is busy fighting a war at a location unknown to us, currently. That would take time as well.

All in all, if Ned is trying to make it sound like Jon was conceived after he learned that Cat was pregnant, Jon would have to be a month or two younger than Robb.. It definitly seems like this is not the case.

So then what should that quote be taken to mean? That Ned "acknowledged" Jon?

All it means is that when Ned says he dishonoured himself, he did so after his marriage to Cat. Obviously when this conversation comes up with Robert, Ned already knows when Robb was conceived. Unless Ned was lying about this (or simply doesn't know exactly when Jon was born), Robb is older.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

It is specifically stated by multiple sources that Elbert died in KL prior to the Rebellion, and Denys died in the Battle of the Bells. Catelyn specifically meantions that after Denys' death, Jon Arryn needed a new heir.

But how Cat would know that? She wasn't present during the conversations, and she never knew for many years. She's simply speculating after events happened, with all the information. And, even if she's somehow right, Jon Arryn probably would want an heir of his own, not a nephew, and for that, he needed a wife.

Just look at the situation. Lords don't want nephews to inherit, they want sons. Jon didn't have any children of his own, and needed both a wife and swords. Hoster had a wife and swords. He had more leverage than Arryn, here, because he had exactly what Arryn want and needed ASAP. And, he needed to "cover" Lysa's misbehaving quite early. He could have simply said "you need swords, fine. I have a daughter who is pregnant: I'll fix "that" problem and she can give you the sons your previous wives couldn't, and I'll fight with you".

Also, considering what happened with Brandon, there is no way Hoster would join them without making sure Jon and Ned are legally married to their daughters before they go to battle, and by that, I also mean being bedded. In Cat's case, she got immediately pregnant, which assure Cat being regent of Ned's child in case they died and mother of a future Lord of Winterfell. In Lysa's case, the situation was different but still, she was legally wedded to Jon Arryn, and no one would make any question about her honour anymore, and she could marry her again as a widow, not a maiden deflowered by a nobody.

[Julia Martell]

I thought Ned didn't allow them to de-robe Cat (and him).

That was in the show!

You must now perform penance! Go sing the Song of The Seven seven times in front of a Heart Tree and come see me in the morning.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

But how Cat would know that? She wasn't present during the conversations, and she never knew for many years. She's simply speculating after events happened, with all the information. And, even if she's somehow right, Jon Arryn probably would want an heir of his own, not a nephew, and for that, he needed a wife.

Just look at the situation. Lords don't want nephews to inherit, they want sons. Jon didn't have any children of his own, and needed both a wife and swords. Hoster had a wife and swords. He had more leverage than Arryn, here, because he had exactly what Arryn want and needed ASAP. And, he needed to "cover" Lysa's misbehaving quite early. He could have simply said "you need swords, fine. I have a daughter who is pregnant: I'll fix "that" problem and she can give you the sons your previous wives couldn't, and I'll fight with you".

Also, considering what happened with Brandon, there is no way Hoster would join them without making sure Jon and Ned are legally married to their daughters before they go to battle, and by that, I also mean being bedded. In Cat's case, she got immediately pregnant, which assure Cat being regent of Ned's child in case they died and mother of a future Lord of Winterfell. In Lysa's case, the situation was different but still, she was legally wedded to Jon Arryn, and no one would make any question about her honour anymore, and she could marry her again as a widow, not a maiden deflowered by a nobody.

I agree with most of what you say, but allow me re-phrase my previous post:

Catelyn believes that Denys' death (after Elberts death) was the reason that Lysa's marriage to Jon was hastily arranged. The only reason for her thinking that this was the reason, would be if Denys had already died. And we know that Denys dies during BotB.

No matter whether this was the real reason, or whether there was an actual other reason, and Cat wasn't told, this is what she believes to be true.

The only thing that I don't argee with from your post, is that Lysa would still be pregnant during all this. LF would have been gone from Riverrun for months, meaning that Lysa would have been pregnant for months, if she had remained pregnant until the negotiations. And seeing as no one noticed her pregnancy, it must have been terminated rather early on.. That doesn't change the fact that she was proven to be fertile, and that was exactly what Arryn needed. A fertile wife.

[KhaleesiDany]

I always assumed from my reading that Jon was the eldest, but everyone thought/acted like Robb was since he is legitimate and Jon doesn't really matter. Jon being older just brings up a whole new set of problems that no one wanted to deal with. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that even if Ned knew Jon was older he never mentioned it or supported everyone thinking that Robb was older, just to make life easier.

You did a fantastic job analyzing all of those quotes. There are just a few points I'd like to contribute my thoughts to and maybe I can make a case for my brain thinking Jon is older.

First, I don't think you can use anything Catelyn says as reasoning.

"He would father no sons who might someday contest with Catelyn’s own grandchildren for Winterfell."

Catelyn here shows worries she had had about Jon fathering sons who would fight with Catelyn’s own grandchildren for Winterfell in the future.

I actually think this quote reflects on Cat's low opinion of Jon and not Jon's age. I don't think we can take anything from this quote except that it reflects on her implicit distrust of Jon Snow. Just as you point out she knows his personality, grew up with her children, his siblings, of which he has 5, and she is still worried about Jon killing all of them and taking the throne.

Maybe we will find out in later books that she was just the only one who could smell his Targaryen bloodlust :D

All of my reasoning of why Jon is older has everything to do with The Timeline:

1. tournament where supposedly Ashara Dayne and Eddard meet and fall in love. (I put this here just in case you think Ashara is Jon Snow's mother. Jon would have had to be conceived sometime now because Eddard didn't see her again until he gives her back her brother's sword and she would have had the baby already. This would put Jon's conception long before Robb's.)

2. Rhaegar abducts Lyanna.

3. Brandon goes to KL to get Lyanna back, but Rhaegar is not at KL. He is busy conceiving Jon Snow with Lyanna at the tower of Joy.

4. Brandon dies and people have finally had enough of Aerys's craziness and are raising banners, Robert is fighting, etc.

5. Battle of the Bells where Ned helps Robert.

6. Eddard and Cat get married. Robb is conceived.

7. Since the tide of the war turned at the battle of bells, Rhaegar returns from the South. I do not believe he would have left the south unless he knew Lyanna was pregnant. I also think he he knew she was pregnant because he left so much of the Kingsguard to watch her. So Lyanna had to be at least a month or two along at this point.

So there you have it. Jon snow is older than Robb.

Edit: Also if Jon was conceived 8-9 months before Rhaegar died, as according the GRRM e-mail, and the war was 10-11 months long, then Jon was conceived near the beginning of the war. Robb was conceived in the middle.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

All of my reasoning of why Jon is older has everything to do with The Timeline:

1. tournament where supposedly Ashara Dayne and Eddard meet and fall in love. (I put this here just in case you think Ashara is Jon Snow's mother. Jon would have had to be conceived sometime now because Eddard didn't see her again until he gives her back her brother's sword and she would have had the baby already. This would put Jon's conception long before Robb's.)

2. Rhaegar abducts Lyanna.

3. Brandon goes to KL to get Lyanna back, but Rhaegar is not at KL. He is busy conceiving Jon Snow with Lyanna at the tower of Joy.

4. Brandon dies and people have finally had enough of Aerys's craziness and are raising banners, Robert is fighting, etc.

5. Battle of the Bells where Ned helps Robert.

6. Eddard and Cat get married. Robb is conceived.

7. Since the tide of the war turned at the battle of bells, Rhaegar returns from the South. I do not believe he would have left the south unless he knew Lyanna was pregnant. I also think he he knew she was pregnant because he left so much of the Kingsguard to watch her. So Lyanna had to be at least a month or two along at this point.

So there you have it. Jon snow is older than Robb.

Edit: Also if Jon was conceived 8-9 months before Rhaegar died, as according the GRRM e-mail, and the war was 10-11 months long, then Jon was conceived near the beginning of the war. Robb was conceived in the middle.

1. It's R+L=J for me :) And Ashara at Harrenhal would make Jon a full year or so older, which we can see isn't the thing

2. The reason why Jon can't have been conceived prior to the war, is because the war lasted "close to a year".. That's more than 9 months :) And the war generally is taken to have ended at the Sack, and we know that Jon was born in the timeframe of one week before the Sack, until three weeks afterwards. Somewhere in those four weeks, Jon was born, and since the war lasted longer than 9 months, he was definitly conceived during the war.

We don't know how old Robb was when the war ended, so stating that the conception occured in the middle, is a bit difficult.

Maybe we will find out in later books that she was just the only one who could smell his Targaryen bloodlust :D

:lol:

I actually think this quote reflects on Cat's low opinion of Jon and not Jon's age. I don't think we can take anything from this quote except that it reflects on her implicit distrust of Jon Snow. Just as you point out she knows his personality, grew up with her children, his siblings, of which he has 5, and she is still worried about Jon killing all of them and taking the throne.

That is also possible. Cat never seems to think so badly about other people's bastards (besides the normal prejudices), so why suddenly think such things about Jon? Perhaps just because he's there, in front of her.

[Lady Winter Rose]

That is also possible. Cat never seems to think so badly about other people's bastards (besides the normal prejudices), so why suddenly think such things about Jon? Perhaps just because he's there, in front of her.

She was nice to other bastards, but maybe she is just polite person. She seems to think nice of Mya, but her comments about Mya and her lover rub me the wrong way. I don't know why. Maybe I need to reread the book.