Why Stannis will win, from a literary perspective

[Martel's Apple Cider]

I'm a Stannis fan. I hope he'll win this war. But I'm also a professor at a major northeastern university, and so I don't really tell people in faculty meetings, when this issue comes up, that I hope Stannis will win. But I study narratives, and social science, and so believe he will, at least for a time. Martin's literary structure demands it; and despite the desperate situation Stannis finds himself in on the frozen lake, that gives me comfort. He has a ways to go.

A great deal has been said on these forums about sussing out clues to the upcoming battles. Dany will win hers, of course - her inevitability is in direct correlation to her blandness as a character. It's like watching Jedi ripping through battle droids in Star Wars I - there's no suspense, because there's no real danger. With Stannis there IS suspense, but there shouldn't be. This is because of something we call an "arc".

There's two plot devices running through the tragedy that is ASOIAF. The first overarching device is that each of the major characters (especially the pretenders to the throne) has a story arc. None of them flat-line. Robb's arc is positive, positive, positive, so positive you know it's coming down, and then disaster. It's why even if you didn't see the Red Wedding coming, you knew Robb had to die. He was heroic, brave, noble, successful, HANDSOME, and thus doomed. Dany's, less interesting, is similar. Dany starts as chattel being sold to a Hun warlord, accidentally murders him, waders hopeless through the desert, is trapped by the warlocks, catches a break with some bravery, catches ANOTHER break through her moral force in Astrapor, catches ANOTHER ANOTHER break in the next city, and so on. You see? It's a constantly escalating arc, which will end with her on the throne because she started against such hopeless odds early. It's not that interesting, because she's endowed with all the moral circumspection of Queen Victoria, but it's the logical end of the arc. Cersei's arc rises high early, with her savagery and cunning seeing off claimant after claimant, threat after threat, until she sees off her last rival (exposing the Tyrell infidelity) and enters ruin, at the hands of the High Septon. Jamie's arc is redemptive, heinous until he loses his hand and slowly gropes back to some semblance of normal morality.

And this is the key point: without taking the throne, Stannis has no arc. He begins as a hopeless pretender, the rightful heir to Robert Baratheon but doomed by his unpopularity, his harshness, his relative poverty on Dragonstone, his rigidity, etc, etc. We are told again and again how nobody wants Stannis to be king. And if he doesn't become king, there's no point to any of it. He was a doomed pretender who was doomed. The end. Taking Winterfell is also not enough. Even if he wins the battle (and he will) and sees off the Boltons and Freys, this is a comparatively minor victory because he still seems unlikely to win the throne. It means the entire Stannis deus ex machina is a mechanism to do...what? Mobilize the north? It seems like Crowfood and Manderly could have done that, maybe with Rickon. Get Jon off the wall? Maybe, but we have spent an ENORMOUS amount of time with Stannis, and that's pretty weak sauce for such an interesting character's predicate. The only thing that makes sense is that Stannis, hopeless from the beginning, nevertheless goes on a Long March to reclaim the throne. He will. Dany may take the throne from him - logically, from a sequential standpoint, she probably will - but he'll get there.

So what happens to Stannis in the end? Well this is where the other device comes in - Greek tragedy. Almost everyone is undone by the one flaw or mistake they make. Robb, despite all his chivalry and heroism, is undone by breaching his contract with the Freys. Tywin, despite a massive imbalance of resources, is undone by his cruel trick on Tyrion and his "whore" when his son was 16. Renly, despite his fitness for the throne, is undone by treason against his brother (I recognize this is a bit tautological, but it still makes sense. He's another Robb character who has the "invincible" arc and so must die.). We don't really know Balon or his death well enough to understand his flaw. Ned is actually singular in this respect: his honesty leads him to tell Cersei what he's going to do and then refuse Renly's help in taking action. He's undone by the trait that brings him to power in the first place.

So what will Stannis's be? Again, by most accounts he has many flaws. But the sin he has committed is using blood magic, to kill Renly and the the castellan at Storm's End. I would argue, and have, that these are not necessarily sins; these are the targeted killings of enemies in the field who have taken up arms. It's very telling, for instance, that Renly is in his armor when he is killed. He's not naked, or on the throne, or whatever. He's under arms.

However, it's clear that Stannis's use of Melisandre is as dark as his gray gets. It must thus be what does him in - but again, only AFTER he takes the throne. Greek tragedy, remember? I would suspect this comes from Melisandre realizing Jon is Azor Azai, and leaving him, but in any case the cause of doom is very clear.

So for all of us Stannis fans, there's a few rays of sunlight. Not many, because with Stannis there never are. But we will get to see him on the throne. We will get to see him bring vengeance to the Freys, and Boltons, and hopefully the Lannister remnants as well, if the Tyrells leave him anything. I am looking forward to it.

[Vincit]

I certainly hope that you're right. Honestly, I would actually be fine with Stannis meeting a tragic end against Dany or the Others after he wins the throne; it's just the thought of him losing to the Boltons or Lannisters that drives me mad.

[Hodor's Dragon]

I tend to look from a literary perspective as well. To me, Stannis is doomed because of the dishonesty of his campaign. Once I saw him depending on an inherently untrustworthy and unbelievable top advisor - and no, I don't mean Davos - and especially when I saw him participating in the cheesy Lightbringer charade, I concluded that this guy was going nowhere.

I just can't see that kind of smoke-and-mirrors trick aimed at the masses leading to a W over contenders who are set up and behave much more straightforwardly, and I'm talking about both Dany and Jon.

Or if you're going to have dishonesty and manipulation win the day, why not somebody who's good at it, like Littlefinger? That's why I have Stannis clocking in at #5 on my most-likely-to-win-the-throne list. He's good, just not good enough.

[Constantinople]

A great deal has been said on these forums about sussing out clues to the upcoming battles. Dany will win hers, of course - her inevitability is in direct correlation to her blandness as a character. It's like watching Jedi ripping through battle droids in Star Wars I - there's no suspense, because there's no real danger.

I don't disagree with this, but have to ask: do you think the same about Jon? Dany often gets attacked around here as being a boringly "good" character and an "inevitable hero" type, in the way Jon just doesn't: even though, for me anyway, Jon is by a long way the duller and more drearily "inevitable" character of the pair. Just wondered what you thought.

Nice post anyway! :-)

[haramune]

I honestly loved reading this, a lot of great points and all of it makes sense to the style to how the books were written and how the TV show is similarly made. Having said that I'll have to disagree, I think Stannis will start winning, gaining momentum, as he was in the north, but I think overall he would bend the knee to Danaerys if he came across her. Most people disagree with me on that saying Stannis 'breaks before he bends' but none of the POV characters, probably any of the characters truly know Stannis, and at least book Stannis is firm and determined to follow duty, he didn't want to enter RR since the Targaryens were in charge, he didn't really want to kill Renly, he just felt he had to and personally I believe duty drives him more than wanting to be king, even though the tv seem to have changed that.

[RoamingRonin]

I tend to look from a literary perspective as well. To me, Stannis is doomed because of the dishonesty of his campaign. Once I saw him depending on an inherently untrustworthy and unbelievable top advisor - and no, I don't mean Davos - and especially when I saw him participating in the cheesy Lightbringer charade, I concluded that this guy was going nowhere.

I just can't see that kind of smoke-and-mirrors trick aimed at the masses leading to a W over contenders who are set up and behave much more straightforwardly, and I'm talking about both Dany and Jon.

Or if you're going to have dishonesty and manipulation win the day, why not somebody who's good at it, like Littlefinger? That's why I have Stannis clocking in at #5 on my most-likely-to-win-the-throne list. He's good, just not good enough.

This exactly. Especially the bolded part.

Stannis fans either ignore the fact that he is a false Azor Ahai or they foolishly believe he will set Melisandre aside.

[Sword of the Morgan]

Great post, and I tend to agree that he'll win the throne or get very close before his demise is brought about.

[The Imperator]

I tend to look from a literary perspective as well. To me, Stannis is doomed because of the dishonesty of his campaign. Once I saw him depending on an inherently untrustworthy and unbelievable top advisor - and no, I don't mean Davos - and especially when I saw him participating in the cheesy Lightbringer charade, I concluded that this guy was going nowhere.

I just can't see that kind of smoke-and-mirrors trick aimed at the masses leading to a W over contenders who are set up and behave much more straightforwardly, and I'm talking about both Dany and Jon.

Or if you're going to have dishonesty and manipulation win the day, why not somebody who's good at it, like Littlefinger? That's why I have Stannis clocking in at #5 on my most-likely-to-win-the-throne list. He's good, just not good enough.

lol Wrong. Stannis's campaign has no dishonesty. Stannis is a brutally honest person and he's exactly who he says he is. He is the One True King of Westeros by right. It should also be noted that Stannis never used blood magic to kill Renly like the OP claimed (of course, even if he did, what of it?); Melisandre did that behind Stannis's back.

[DamoDega]

I like Stannis a lot, but part of me can't just see him win

Not only "final winner", even just be THE winner for a while

I see him as the incarnation of "almost there"

He is frustration

He's the kind of dude that lack that cocktail of initiative/talent/charisma/luck/intuition that made winners winners, and get mad because he see others who deserve less (In his eyes) surpass him, his position, or his right

When somebody is described as His head has only a fringe of black hair "like the shadow of a crown"

You know he's into some sorry-dude-you-will-never-win-shit karma :D

Think when you know a cute girl and in short time you get a date with her.

Now for a second forget her. Watch at her right.

There is dat pissed, full friendzoned fatty friend, who stayed "loyal" (if fake frienship is loyality, in his mind it is) at her side, cured her burns from assholes, done hours and days talking with her, and whatever other things they do.

You or not you, he will never get that girl, but he believe that he will because "he deserve" it, like if friendzone days are supermarket prize points or something

Ok, watch his face when he see you win "his" prize at the first try with little work and not even a second in the friendzone limbo. That's Stannis :D

The ultimate Lord of the Frienzone, Jorah is a good example

http://i.imgur.com/GhzRApw.jpg <-- "hello my queen, i won the battle, conquered the city, i've bring your dragons to shit in the park! All for you!" "Mmmh ok, where's Daario? I need some sex"

But Stannis version is kinda different, more angry, more tough, more frustrated, kinda less selfish but at the same time waaay more egocentric... he's not greed or ambitious, but at the same time he believe the Gods owe him something

About him i remember a quote about the 3 brothers and Stannis being "Iron" (Rob Steel, Ren Copper)... tough but will not bend, and at some point break.

The more life deny him what he think to deserve, the more he will try harder... and at some point life will just break him, because "by right" or not you can't bend the universe to your rules

I can imagine him see finally "the prize" (wich in his case is not ambition, he just want see "the right" win), smell it, maybe even get a little taste, like a cruel joke

But then lose it, taken by somebody who (in his eyes) don't deserve it.

Probably Jon Snow

Jon is younger, only a bastard (as now), did'nt suffered as him, did'nt sacrifice as him, did'nt lost as him, was'nt the one with the badass prophecy and cool laser sword, done some valor stuff but no more than him

Yet i can see Mel (who don't "love" him, just believe he's the chosen) going full "mmh well, maybe it's Jon. Don't be mad Stan, we must just serve Lord of the Light and stuff"

Yet i can see Jon's Claw become the true Lightbringer, since the Stannis version is a not hot "wrong" version

Yet i can see his men start become Jon's fans because he have the charisma Stannis lack

And so on

One more time, when he was so close ALMOST THERE :D

I can't imagine Stannis live his own character more than that

[Ramsay Gimp]

Stannis threads just aren't the same without E-Ro :frown5:

[RoamingRonin]

lol Wrong. Stannis's campaign has no dishonesty. Stannis is a brutally honest person and he's exactly who he says he is. He is the One True King of Westeros by right. It should also be noted that Stannis never used blood magic to kill Renly like the OP claimed (of course, even if he did, what of it?); Melisandre did that behind Stannis's back.

See what I mean. Totally ignores the false Azor Ahai thing. It's like describing Darth Vader but failing to mention he's a Sith Lord. :lol:

[Good Guy Garlan]

Nice post, but I have a different view of his arc. He's not going to be just another doomed pretender. Well, he will be, to some, but some people will remember him as the only king who saved the Watch and helped the realm. And that's in line with Martin's recurrent motif of heroic deeds going unnoticed. Characters in asoiaf rarely get what they want, and if they do it's in an entirely unexpected way. Stannis wants the throne to finally break away from his brother's shadow, and he won't get it, but the irony is that he'll die being a better king than Robert or Renly ever were.

I like Stannis a lot, but I think his arc is headed to darkness. Not to treat Aemon's word as gospel, but he did say the false light would lead the realm further into darkness. I think this will happen at the Wall, where Melisandre will crown Shireen and ignite a fight among the different factions, and the resulting chaos will enable the Others to finally come in force.

And there's another narrative role Stannis fulfills as a doomed pretender: he makes the reader actively root for the destruction of the Boltons, if that wasn't already the case. Stannis losing to Ramsay would open a lot of plots, such as the Stark revival via Rickon or Sansa, and Jon Snow finally defeating the Boltons once and for all.

[The Imperator]

See what I mean. Totally ignores the false Azor Ahai thing. It's like describing Darth Vader but failing to mention he's a Sith Lord. :lol:

rofl You're bringing up Darth Vader in a conversation about a fantasy series with a morally grey cast of characters. At the end of the day, there may not even be an Azor Ahai. But then again, I'm not surprised that a Stannis hater on this forum allows his or her judgement to be clouded. ;)

[abisal]

I agree that Stannis will defeat the Boltons and win back Winterfell, however I don't think he is going to take the throne. It doesn't really make any sense for him to make his men march to the South when the realm is still in an imminent danger from the Others and all the northern lords remain weakened. And since he is not really Azor Ahai, he'd also be incapable of defeating the Others when he does have to march against them.

Plus, Stannis' men being defeated by the Others would probably serve as an alarm to everyone else in Westeros of just how scary these beings are, and the huge hole his heroic death would leave in the North would cause Melisandre, Jon, Davos, Asha and the remaining northern lords to step up and try to fill his role..

[fuem]

I sure hope so. Though what will he do if he wins will be worth the read

[RoamingRonin]

rofl You're bringing up Darth Vader in a conversation about a fantasy series with a morally grey cast of characters. At the end of the day, there may not even be an Azor Ahai. But then again, I'm not surprised that a Stannis hater on this forum allows his or her judgement to be clouded. ;)

I agree with the post Hodor's Dragon wrote: Stannis's campaign is based partly on a falsehood. Therefore, I don't see him winning. It's not about hate. It's not about comparing him vs. Jon or him vs. Dany.

You're right, though. There may not be an Azor Ahai in the end. That kind of makes Stannis' posing even worse. He's pretending to be someone that doesn't even exist.

[Hodor's Dragon]

lol Wrong. Stannis's campaign has no dishonesty. Stannis is a brutally honest person and he's exactly who he says he is. He is the One True King of Westeros by right. It should also be noted that Stannis never used blood magic to kill Renly like the OP claimed (of course, even if he did, what of it?); Melisandre did that behind Stannis's back.

Oh, right, nothing dishonest at all about Stannis's Lightbringer.

[Lopsang]

I wouldn't mind Stannis on the throne; but what makes you so certain that he is even alive? You can call the pink letter into question, but I suspect he's already lying face-down in a pile of snow. All of these theories that are to some degree plausible, like the pink letter being fake, R + L = J, Aegon not really being Aegon, etc, simply can't all be true I think. Even if one or a couple of them are, definitely not all of them.

[Pecan]

I wouldn't mind Stannis on the throne; but what makes you so certain that he is even alive? You can call the pink letter into question, but I suspect he's already lying face-down in a pile of snow. All of these theories that are to some degree plausible, like the pink letter being fake, R + L = J, Aegon not really being Aegon, etc, simply can't all be true I think. Even if one or a couple of them are, definitely not all of them.

It's most likely the case that the pink letter was written by Mance Rayder rather than Ramsay. If that's the case, there's no real reason to think Stannis is dead.

[Hos the Hostage]

OP: To add to the list of sins, in a way, Ned Stark did commit the crimes he was accused of, only the victim of his treason was Jon not Joffrey, and the usurper he supported was Robert not Stannis.

Things that may help Stannis win :

Aurane Waters, a Velaryon bastard, whose sigil is seahorse. Remember the Patchface prophecy about mermaids(Manderly), seashells(Westerling) and seahorses(velaryon).

But, the big problem is the current religious situation at KL. Can't see how Stannis will deal with that.