Harry the Hair Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Well Tommen dies eventually. The same could be said for Aegon. As far as the Tyrells know Tommen is king now, why settle for someone that MIGHT become king when you have your daughter married to the real one. I believe Cersei will win her trial by combat thanks to Ungregor and will keep her status as regent for a while, at least until Tommen dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myufa Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Tommen is less valuable because he doesn't have the same power and glory. And he has three enemies: Aegon, Stannis, and Euron. Get rid of Tommen and accept Aegon and you only have two enemies left plus a larger army to kick their ass with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry the Hair Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Tommen, unlike the others, actually has a status as king, resides in King's Landing and he is a child, which makes it a lot easier to control him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byfort of Corfe Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 It's vital for the Tyrells to keep Tommen on the IT because without him they have no claim to the throne or the government. If they expose or kill him the heir becomes either Stannis (if they expose) or Myrcella if he dies. Now are the Tyrells going to then make Stannis a widower or are they going to arrange a Lesbian wedding between Myrcella and Margaery? Or they seize the throne outright thereby reigniting a war that is starting to calm down because the one thing that all the other nobles will agree on is that a family of stewards doesn't deserve the throne. Toss in of course what happens at Margaery's trial. All sorts of stuff may come out that will embarrass the Little Queen. There seems to be a serious revival in belief and the power of the Faith. This can't be good news for Queens who have been, shall we say, "generous" with their favors. She may be found innocent and still have this come out, after all the Court of Public opinion is not bound by the verdict of a court. Or she may be found guilty and rescued by a Tyrell Army, which may very well involve the slaughter of thousands of peasant and those in the Faith. And frankly Mace Tyrell isn't exactly Henry Vth or the Black Prince on a Battlefield. now I keep reading about how Kevan isn't going to allow Cersei access to Tommen, Well naturally the problem with that is that Kevan is dead and whoever discovers his body will do so in a matter of hours, not enough time to bundle Cersei off to CR. So unless someone is going to animate Kevan ala "Weekend at Bernie's" she's going to get access again. And the manner of Kevan's death will strongly suggest that Tyrion is stll around. Who would deny a Mother access to her son in those circumstances? Cersei may not be as good at the game as she thinks she is but she's better at it than any of the Tyrells have shown. So no, I don't think that Cersei is done by any means and I also don't think that any Tyrell will sit the IT, or if they do it won't be for long. Of course there are all sorts of wild cards here. But in the small struggle between Cersei and Margaery, my money is on Cersei. The Lannisters may be down but I doubt that they are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bironic Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 now I keep reading about how Kevan isn't going to allow Cersei access to Tommen, Well naturally the problem with that is that Kevan is dead and whoever discovers his body will do so in a matter of hours, not enough time to bundle Cersei off to CR. So unless someone is going to animate Kevan ala "Weekend at Bernie's" she's going to get access again. And the manner of Kevan's death will strongly suggest that Tyrion is stll around. Who would deny a Mother access to her son in those circumstances? Cersei may not be as good at the game as she thinks she is but she's better at it than any of the Tyrells have shown. The Lannisters may be down but I doubt that they are out. I agree that Cersei isn't done. But Olenna Tyrell and Randyll Tarly are (far) better at the game than Cersei. Garlan Tyrell and Willas seem to be intelligent as well. The problem is that they aren't in power. Mace the Oaf is the one who controls KL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antler's Fury Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 now I keep reading about how Kevan isn't going to allow Cersei access to Tommen, Well naturally the problem with that is that Kevan is dead and whoever discovers his body will do so in a matter of hours, not enough time to bundle Cersei off to CR. So unless someone is going to animate Kevan ala "Weekend at Bernie's" she's going to get access again. Mace won't allow it. He's Hand. He has the SC, GC, and two armies backing him. What he says goes, and it's clear that he does not want Cersei to have any more power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRuby Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I so want Cersei to get back the power and rule. No matter how vile and evil she Is, I love that she can do anything to get what she wants! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pyker Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 IMO cersei isn't that bad at the game of thrones. She can pretty much buy anyone. gold is what makes tyrion effective also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anya, Vengeance Demon Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I think Cersei could get a fair amount of power back, but not in King's Landing. Mace Tyrell isn't the smartest person in King's Landing, but he's not an utter fool; and the thing that we know about Mace is that he keeps making moves to aggrandize House Tyrell. He's already taken over the City Watch. If the Regency is vacant, he'll make sure that a Tyrell has it. He'll replace Kevan and Pycelle with Tyrells. He'll keep a firm leash on Tommen and won't let Cersei anywhere near her. And besides the Tyrells, the High Sparrow has no reason to support Cersei either--he knows what she did, whatever the results of the trial are, and he's not going to trust her. Qyburn might support her, but Qyburn himself is there under sufferance and could easily be dismissed. Varys might want to see her become Regent to fuck things up, but he doesn't have an army and his ability to make this happen is pretty limited. He could sneak her in to see Tommen, if he had a mind to, but that would be of limited value when the real power sits with Tyrell swords and goldcloaks. And besides, why should he make the effort when Cersei could make just as much trouble from Casterly Rock? If Cersei makes her way back to Casterly Rock, then I think everything changes for her. The folks there are loyal to the Lannisters, and particularly loyal to Tywin, and they probably haven't followed events in King's Landing that closely. So when Cersei comes back to town spinning a story about how the Tyrells have taken good Lord Tywin's legacy and pissed it down the drain, when she starts telling them of the conspiracy between some of the Tyrells and Tyrion to attack the Lannisters, they may well be willing to believe her. After all... Mace Tyrell has barely made a show of respecting Lannister power. He has consistently benefited from Lannister deaths. And she has the 'proof' that Varys left connecting Olenna Tyrell to Tyrion's escape (and Tywin's murder). So when the Tyrells call on their help in the fight against Aegon, she'll have no reason to support them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antler's Fury Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 If Cersei makes her way back to Casterly Rock, then I think everything changes for her. The folks there are loyal to the Lannisters, and particularly loyal to Tywin, and they probably haven't followed events in King's Landing that closely. So when Cersei comes back to town spinning a story about how the Tyrells have taken good Lord Tywin's legacy and pissed it down the drain, when she starts telling them of the conspiracy between some of the Tyrells and Tyrion to attack the Lannisters, they may well be willing to believe her. After all... Mace Tyrell has barely made a show of respecting Lannister power. He has consistently benefited from Lannister deaths. And she has the 'proof' that Varys left connecting Olenna Tyrell to Tyrion's escape (and Tywin's murder). So when the Tyrells call on their help in the fight against Aegon, she'll have no reason to support them. She'd need the support of Daven Lannister, Warden of the West, and Damion Lannister, castellan of Casterly Rock. Why would they support civil war between the Tyrells and Lannisters when that alliance is all that's keeping Tommon in power? Furthermore, how exactly is Cersei going to cross the continent on her own? And even Cersei knows that Aegon cannot take power without killing Tommen, meaning that she has more reason to back the Tyrells than she has to remain neutral towards Aegon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anya, Vengeance Demon Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 To your points in turn: first, I don't know that she would need Daven & Damion's support, to be honest. She's the Lady of Casterly Rock without question, and we've never seen the Wardens be a position of so much authority that they could gainsay a sitting lord or lady. And they might well come along for the ride. We don't know enough about them to say that they're going to be sympathetic with the Tyrells. Second, I think she could easily arrange for transport back to Casterly Rock. There are still Lannister guards in the city, and the Tyrells would have no cause to keep her. Third, while a rational person would conclude that Aegon is the primary threat to Tommen, Cersei isn't rational, and is already prone to believe that the Tyrells--in conspiracy with Tyrion--have murdered her father and eldest son. She is likely to conclude that they murdered Kevan and Pycelle as well. So I think it's a big leap to think that she'd conclude that Tommen is safe with the Tyrells--she is quite likely to conclude the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antler's Fury Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 To your points in turn: first, I don't know that she would need Daven & Damion's support, to be honest. She's the Lady of Casterly Rock without question, and we've never seen the Wardens be a position of so much authority that they could gainsay a sitting lord or lady. And they might well come along for the ride. We don't know enough about them to say that they're going to be sympathetic with the Tyrells. Wardens are appointed by the Crown. If Daven wants to stay Warden, he'll do as Mace says. Furthermore, I don't see why Daven would want war with the Tyrells when Aegon invades. Damion, on the other hand, may well help Cersei, but I still don't see why she would just ignore Aegon and try to hurt the Tyrells when the Tyrells want Tommen in power, and Aegon doesn't. Cersei may not be rational, but I'm assuming Damion and Daven are. Third, while a rational person would conclude that Aegon is the primary threat to Tommen, Cersei isn't rational, and is already prone to believe that the Tyrells--in conspiracy with Tyrion--have murdered her father and eldest son. She is likely to conclude that they murdered Kevan and Pycelle as well. So I think it's a big leap to think that she'd conclude that Tommen is safe with the Tyrells--she is quite likely to conclude the opposite. She doesn't need to think that Tommen is safe with the Tyrells, she just needs to think that Tommen would be even less safe with Aegon, and I don't see why she would think that he would be safe at all with Aegon in power. Aegon can't take over until Tommen is dead, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faint Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I am of the same mind that she will flee to Casterly Rock, where she will end up crowning Myrcella. Martin has been hinting at that possibility for several books now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anya, Vengeance Demon Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 At the moment, given what she believes, she has no reason to think that Tommen is safe with either of them. You think that she'd conclude that the Tyrells could be trusted with Tommen when she thinks they murdered Tywin? And beyond that, why wouldn't Daven and Damion believe her story about the Tyrells working against the Lannisters? It's not true--or rather only a little bit of it is true--but the Tyrells are plainly shutting the Lannisters out of power and the Tyrell coin in Rugen's cell is pretty powerful evidence if you don't know that Varys planted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antler's Fury Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 At the moment, given what she believes, she has no reason to think that Tommen is safe with either of them. You think that she'd conclude that the Tyrells could be trusted with Tommen when she thinks they murdered Tywin? I think that she knows that the Tyrells want to control Tommen, and therefore need him alive. She also knows that other claimants, like Aegon or Stannis, need him dead. And beyond that, why wouldn't Daven and Damion believe her story about the Tyrells working against the Lannisters? It's not true--or rather only a little bit of it is true--but the Tyrells are plainly shutting the Lannisters out of power and the Tyrell coin in Rugen's cell is pretty powerful evidence if you don't know that Varys planted it. I'm not saying they won't believe her, I'm saying they won't care. The memory of Tywin is not that of Ned Stark, where people will bend over backwards to save "Tywin's little girl." If D&D cared at all about a Tyrell power grab, they would have acted when Mace and Randyll marched on KL. They didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faint Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I think she will give up on Tommen as a lost cause. There are already hints at that in the way she unfavorably compares him to Joffrey and in how she constantly references how she is older than Jaime and is therefore Tywin's rightful heir. Granted, her mindset will be very much influenced by her circumstances in that it will be close to impossible for her to influence what happens to Tommen at this point. Another theory I am toying with is that Tyene gets Margaery convicted while Nymeria assassinates Tommen and wraps his body in Martell cloaks to present to Aegon. So perhaps one or both of those events happen first and Cersei flees as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antler's Fury Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I think she will give up on Tommen as a lost cause. There are already hints at that in the way she unfavorably compares him to Joffrey and in how she constantly references how she is older than Jaime and is therefore Tywin's rightful heir. Granted, her mindset will be very much influenced by her circumstances in that it will be close to impossible for her to influence what happens to Tommen at this point. How will Cersei get Myrcella back from the Dornish? Another theory I am toying with is that Tyene gets Margaery convicted while Nymeria assassinates Tommen and wraps his body in Martell cloaks to present to Aegon. So perhaps one or both of those events happen first and Cersei flees as a result. Now that is something that I can believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anya, Vengeance Demon Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 AF: I think you're vastly underestimating how much people in the west looked up to Tywin. Beyond that, for your supposition to work, they wouldn't just be indifferent to Tywin and his legacy, they'd have to be indifferent to Lannister fortunes in general (and thus their own prospects in particular). And not just indifferent, but actively resistant when Cersei speaks up on behalf of Lannister power and perogatives, so that they'd want to stop her. And the situation with King's Landing is completely different; they had no reason to think that the Tyrells were marching to defeat the Lannisters, when after all they were responding to the power vacuum that resulted when Cersei was taken by the High Sparrow, and Kevan was on his way to take the position of Regent. They couldn't have foreseen at that point that the Tyrells would kick out all the Lannisters in the Small Council. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faint Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 How will Cersei get Myrcella back from the Dornish? They will return her. I do not see her as being much of a factor in the Dornish plans, besides which she has already been mutilated. I think Cersei's story ultimately segues back to Jaime, with the Lannister story in King's Landing effectively finished soon as Cersei decamps. We are getting Aegon v. Daenerys; the Lannisters do not fit into that equation. I think the visions in the House of the Undying are telling. Varys and Stannis are Daenerys' opponents, not the Lannisters. Meanwhile, the Sand Snakes will wreck havoc in King's Landing, probably on their own initiative, basically forcing an alliance with Aegon onto Dornan and Arianne without their say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antler's Fury Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 AF: I think you're vastly underestimating how much people in the west looked up to Tywin. Beyond that, for your supposition to work, they wouldn't just be indifferent to Tywin and his legacy, they'd have to be indifferent to Lannister fortunes in general (and thus their own prospects in particular). Tywin's legacy was one of respect and fear, but not love or devotion. There is a reason no one in the Westerlands protests or lifts a finger in response to Cersei's arrest or Mace's march on KL. If you are correct, we would see Daven march on KL to counter Mace, and after Cersei was arrested, an outpouring of rage from the Westerlands akin to what we saw from Dorne when Oberyn died. We didn't even see that when Tywin died. Furthermore the Westerlands' fortunes would not be affected if the people there ignored Cersei. Indeed, keeping their head down and obeying whoever is in KL is the best way to ensure that their territory does not get invaded in yet another war. And not just indifferent, but actively resistant when Cersei speaks up on behalf of Lannister power and perogatives, so that they'd want to stop her. They don't need to be actively resistant, they just need to ignore her. Cersei cannot act without the help of someone with actual gold/men. If D&D and the people of the Westerlands ignore her, what exactly is she going to do that they'd need to stop her? And the situation with King's Landing is completely different; they had no reason to think that the Tyrells were marching to defeat the Lannisters, They still have no reason to think that. The Tyrell army has not set foot in the Riverlands, where the Lannister army is stationed. when after all they were responding to the power vacuum that resulted when Cersei was taken by the High Sparrow, and Kevan was on his way to take the position of Regent. They couldn't have foreseen at that point that the Tyrells would kick out all the Lannisters in the Small Council. They didn't care at all when Cersei herself was arrested by the HS and booted off the SC. They will return her. I do not see her as being much of a factor in the Dornish plans, besides which she has already been mutilated. Doran's just going to giver her back, no strings attached? The way I see it, if he's going to back Aegon, he needs Myrcella and Tommen dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.