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Ukraine 13: Putin as savior and bringer of peace (halo to be painted in later)


Ser Scot A Ellison

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The big day. Minsk meeting underway, but shelling continues around Mariupol.

Long read, but worth it -- reminder that this is a local, personal conflict as much as a grand clash of alliances and ideologies. Even if it ends today, the wounds inflicted by this little war will be long in healing.

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The big day. Minsk meeting underway, but shelling continues around Mariupol.

Long read, but worth it -- reminder that this is a local, personal conflict as much as a grand clash of alliances and ideologies. Even if it ends today, the wounds inflicted by this little war will be long in healing.

That was a brilliant piece, I thoroughly enjoyed reading it. Thanks for sharing.

ST

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Is this like the WWI cease fire where they kept shooting up to the minute the deal came into effect? Lovely.

Yep, all sorts of shooting going on, apparently for another hour and fifteen.

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That article said the truce would start at 15.00 GMT so surely it's already in effect?

Half an hour ago, but yours was the first post since the truce were supposed to have started.

ETA: Hm, I thought they said 16:00 on the radio, but now they say 17:00 CET, so twenty minutes from now.

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daskool,

Don't worry. Putin the infinite and all justified will save us.

The Ukrainians have been made to eat the ceasefire, Merkel & Hollande are already intimating about easing the sanctions. If two of the largest NATO nations can't even live with piss weak economic sanctions against Russia to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine what chance of them going to war? Reason number 87 why Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO. So instead of making a big deal about something that's never going to happen why not throw Putin a bone and get this shit over with already? That way Russia and the west can focus on the real enemy.

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Cheers.

While we're waiting for the 14-point ceasefire deal, here's some Mariupol locals chilling on the beach, watching the shells fly in.

EDIT: Poroshenko confirming

God, finally! I really hope that this ceasefire will last...

Just a small correction: it's a 12-point plan, not a 14-point one.

I guess that the exact peace plan will be published a bit later this evening or tomorrow?

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Why this ceasefire will not happen or will quickly go out of the window;



-the situation for Putin is bad; he doesn't control the whole region of the Donbas and there is no corridor to Crimea and even then the Donbas is worthless. he needs more.



-there are several militias active both on the government side and the Russian side who don't really follow orders of higher up.



-Putin will let it fly out of control again to shrug at it and claim "we don't have any control, this is not our conflict"



-in its current state the "rebels" have no real control.



-Ukraine will just use this time to build up their army and reconsider their tactics.


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I don't think Putin actually wants the east. It's questionable how much support the rebels have, and does he really want a wartorn area to join Russia? His goal is more to prove to the Ukrainian government they can't hope to win against him, and that the West doesn't care enough to come rescue them. Thus getting the deal he wanted in the first place.



The only question is if Ukraine is cowed or if he's pushed them too far.


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