Did Littlefinger Double Cross The Tyrells?

[Lion Of The Night]

I think the Tyrells' Plan A was for Joffrey to appear to have choked as GRRM said, but they definitely laid the groundwork for Tyrion and Sansa to be their Plan B scapegoats. Most of the point of poisoning Joffrey at the wedding was to ensure that they had a ridiculous number of witnesses that would be convinced the Tyrells were innocent. If Joffrey had died in a more private setting, the Tyrells would have looked more guilty in the court of public opinion, since they're the biggest beneficiaries of replacing Joffrey with Tommen.

When Littlefinger and Olenna decided to poison Joffrey; Olenna must have been wary about trusting Littlefinger. What if he tipped Cersei off to the attempt? Heck, Littlefinger probably considered it. So Olenna tells Littlefinger that she can't possibly smuggle the poison into the wedding. Littlefinger counters that he'll get Sansa to smuggle it in. Olenna agrees to that plan because now even if Littlefinger tips Cersei off, the Tyrells will look clean and they have a good scapegoat.

I don't think the Tyrells knew that Littlefinger was planning to spirit Sansa away, but when they agreed to using Sansa as the vehicle for the poison, they were willing to throw Sansa away. And since the Tyrells knew that Littlefinger had a connection to, and interest in Sansa, they must suspect that he took her.

If LF was the one to "volunteer" Sansa as a mule, it wouldn't be without a plan to get her out. The Tyrells would know that. It is clear that at any rate they suspect LF has her, and would make overtures and plans to deal with that.

But in the end sacrificing Sansa costs more than it will gain.

[Dya of Oldstones]

I definitely expect Sansa to play a role in bringing him down. But funny thing there is in addition to QoT also Tyrion still remaining as player of the game and even Lady Stoneheart. Now that LF couldn't expect. At this point it is more of a question of who than if.

Agreed, and Tyrion and LS are other possibilities. Since this thread was about the Tyrells I stuck with just QoT. The list of people who would benefit from LF's downfall is really long. :cool4:

[Archmaester Drew]

Interesting discussion, thanks! :cheers:

But what's with all the 'faceless men'? Get an avatar! (Please?) ;)

[Lion Of The Night]

Agreed, and Tyrion and LS are other possibilities. Since this thread was about the Tyrells I stuck with just QoT. The list of people who would benefit from LF's downfall is really long. :cool4:

What would the Tyrells do to get back at LF?

I realize a lot of people want him to get his comupance, but would Sansa REALLY be the person to do it? From her POV he is the one helping her, to escape kings landing, and then gain agency of her own.

It may come down to LF vs the Tyrells, but where will Sansa side with? Because if the theory that Lady O was willing to sacrifice her is true, I don't think Sansa will be too forgiving of house Tyrell...

[King of Vaes Tolorro]

GRRM said that the Tyrells didn't have a plan to blame it on anyone, they wanted it to look like Joffrey choked. They did not count on Cersei's insane hatred of Tyrion, or LF's trick with the jousting dwarfs. Because of this that means they did not intend to get Sansa back because she would have still been married to Tyrion.

Then I can forgive them at last. But Littlefinger must die. He must be made small by the Giant of Lannister. Or he must be devoured by the Lady-Wolf.

Seriously, Why does Littlefinger hate Tyrion? IS it because they both have littlefingers? He is always trying to get the poor guy killed.

[cassidyaj]

The only remaining question is how/whether Littlefinger suspected they might marry her to Tyrion. They could have married her to Lancel instead, or Tywin himself. Or did Littlefinger think they'd block the Tyrells in some other way?

IIRC, he offered himself as a possible husband for Sansa. But he probably suspected Tyrion would be the choice as it would divert him away from Casterly Rock and that wasthe most advantageous marriage arrangement Tywin could have hoped to make for Tyrion. The only other house that showed interest in marrying Tyrion was Lady Tanda. LF knew that he could get Sansa away from Tyrion because most of KL already hated him and his family didn't really like him any better.

[Lion Of The Night]

IIRC, he offered himself as a possible husband for Sansa. But he probably suspected Tyrion would be the choice as it would divert him away from Casterly Rock and that wasthe most advantageous marriage arrangement Tywin could have hoped to make for Tyrion. The only other house that showed interest in marrying Tyrion was Lady Tanda. LF knew that he could get Sansa away from Tyrion because most of KL already hated him and his family didn't really like him any better.

If LF just wanted Sansa he could have spirited her out of Kings Landing at almost any time, waiting until the wedding allowed their coalition the opportunity to kill 3 birds with one stone as it were. 1) Kill Joffrey 2) Kill Tyrion and 3) Get Sansa out of Lanister control.

In my opinion only the 1st and 3rd were the primary reason for the plan. The north is still volatile, LF can easily play on that. Harrenhall isn't secure yet, and Sweetrobin will eventually get old enough to rule the Vale, having the North on your side too is more than enough reason to get Sansa safely in his grasp. Especially as he couldn't marry her like he proposed at the start.

[new djinn]

If he didn't, he will. That's just how he rolls.

[Eat My Steel]

I think the Tyrells' Plan A was for Joffrey to appear to have choked as GRRM said, but they definitely laid the groundwork for Tyrion and Sansa to be their Plan B scapegoats. Most of the point of poisoning Joffrey at the wedding was to ensure that they had a ridiculous number of witnesses that would be convinced the Tyrells were innocent. If Joffrey had died in a more private setting, the Tyrells would have looked more guilty in the court of public opinion, since they're the biggest beneficiaries of replacing Joffrey with Tommen.

When Littlefinger and Olenna decided to poison Joffrey; Olenna must have been wary about trusting Littlefinger. What if he tipped Cersei off to the attempt? Heck, Littlefinger probably considered it. So Olenna tells Littlefinger that she can't possibly smuggle the poison into the wedding. Littlefinger counters that he'll get Sansa to smuggle it in. Olenna agrees to that plan because now even if Littlefinger tips Cersei off, the Tyrells will look clean and they have a good scapegoat.

I don't think the Tyrells knew that Littlefinger was planning to spirit Sansa away, but when they agreed to using Sansa as the vehicle for the poison, they were willing to throw Sansa away. And since the Tyrells knew that Littlefinger had a connection to, and interest in Sansa, they must suspect that he took her.

I agree with everything here, except for the fact that I don't think the Tyrells cared about Sansa being incriminated in the murder, only Tyrion. The Tyrells likely would have either not been thinking about Sansa at all or were intentionally using Tyrion as a scapegoat to free her again for marriage to Willas.

[John Suburbs]

Let's take as our starting point the idea that Littlefinger was working with the Tyrells to kill Joffrey. They wanted him dead, not because he was a little psychopath and might hurt poor Marg, but rather because he could not be controlled. They figured he would go full out Mad King Aerys or worse, but Tommen on the other hand, would be easier to influence.

The plan was, to kill Joffrey, have Tyrion take the blame and be executed, have Sansa spirited off to safety for a few years. Marg marries Tommen and after a while Sansa reapears and is pardoned by the king because she had no bearing o the assassination.

Now why do I think this? Well we know the Tyrells want power. They already have a queen in Marg, but they wanted more. Remember, as far as the rest of westeros knows, Sansa is the heir to the north. Lady O's original plan was to marry Sansa to Willas the heir to Highgarden. If this plan went through, they would have had influence over a huge portion of Westeros. Littlefinger had Harranfall and the Tyrells would have promised him more if he he could get Sansa safe for them.

But Littlefinger is a sneak. He had his own plans. Instead of delivering Sansa to them, he took her for his own purpose. The Tyrells are angry and are quietly making plans to deal with the situation but are afraid of being implicated in the Assassination, so are walking on eggshells.

Any thoughts?

The problem with your theory starts in the second sentence: Joffrey could not be controlled. Joffrey is the most controllable, easily manipulated character in the book. He is utterly incapable of hiding his feelings and he has absolutely no regard for the consequences of his actions or the bigger picture that is unfolding across Westeros. Margaery has all the skills she needs to seduce, cajole and entice him into doing virtually anything she asks, and she also has the sense to know not to push him too far. Tommen, on the other hand, is already showing himself to be more thoughtful and rational than Joffrey, but just as willful. So this whole idea that the Tyrell's would want to kill Joffrey -- thus delaying their own ability to control the crown and produce a Tyrell heir to the IT -- because they expect to control Tommen is just plain wrong.

Still, it has probably not escaped Lady O's notice that ever since she got into bed with Littlefinger, she has been faced with a steady flow of "least bad" choices, starting with the Lannister alliance. Once the Willas plot was foiled (by LF, BTW) the choice was either leave her in Lannister hands or let Littlefinger have her. She chose LF because handing all of the north over to Lord Tywin poses much bigger problems for Highgarden than handing her to LF.

Now, Lady O has left KL, her granddaughter's been arrested, her grandson is horribly burned (we think) and the Ironmen are sailing up the Mander. All in all, siding with Littlefinger has not been very fortuitous for the Tyrells.

[Lion Of The Night]

The problem with your theory starts in the second sentence: Joffrey could not be controlled. Joffrey is the most controllable, easily manipulated character in the book. He is utterly incapable of hiding his feelings and he has absolutely no regard for the consequences of his actions or the bigger picture that is unfolding across Westeros. Margaery has all the skills she needs to seduce, cajole and entice him into doing virtually anything she asks, and she also has the sense to know not to push him too far. Tommen, on the other hand, is already showing himself to be more thoughtful and rational than Joffrey, but just as willful. So this whole idea that the Tyrell's would want to kill Joffrey -- thus delaying their own ability to control the crown and produce a Tyrell heir to the IT -- because they expect to control Tommen is just plain wrong.

Joffrey is wildly unpredictable. If you need any proof, just look at what happened to Ned. That was wasn't exactly a startling example of Joffrey's controllability. The longer he remained king the more comfortable and confident in his own agency becomes. Right now hecan be swayed, but that won't last forever. Even Tywin says he needs to be taught a sharp lesson. Then again, sharp lessons don't always go the way ypu planed, just ask Tywin how well his sharp lesson to Tyrion about Tysha worked out for him in the end.

If a dog is unpredictable and has the possibility of attacking and hurting someone, and experience has proven that you cant always control him, you don't wait and hope for the best. You put him down.

Thats Joffrey.

[John Suburbs]

Joffrey is eminently controllable by people who know how to control other people. Margaery is the protégé of one of the best in the business in this regard and has been taught from a young age to be queen: that includes how to seduce men and how to wield power through your lord or royal husband.

I submit that the Tyrells would have eventually gotten rid of Joffrey if he did prove to be unmanageable, unpredictable or started to pose a threat to Margy, but that could be years down the road -- long after Margy produces one or multiple heirs, cementing the Tryell link to the IT. Killing him at the wedding runs completely counter to Tyrell political aims because it delays Margy's ascension as queen in her own right and leaves Cersei in place as Queen Regent to rule in Tommen's place for at least another four years.

There was no compelling reason to take the enormous risk of committing regicide at the wedding, and they derived no appreciable benefit from Joffrey's death -- in fact, they are the worse for it.

[Little and Less]

Hmm...interesting topic! It's LF so....you would think that somewhere in this plan he did double cross the Tyrells. It ain't a LF plan unless everyone else takes the blame.

By having Sansa wear the hairnet, the Tyrells incriminate Sansa. But why? Sansa is really important if you want to secure the North, even if you are a Tyrell. Wouldn't it be better for the Tyrells to only incriminate Tyrion, keeping Sansa out of it? This seems like poor planning by the Tyrells to sell out Sansa. (Unless the hairnet is just a hairnet, but that's a theory for another day).

Even if the Boltons are the current Wardens of the North, Sansa is a better Northern rallying point than the Boltons ever were. (Even Tywin knew this, hense Sansa's marriage to Tyrion).

That way, Tyrion dies, and Sansa is free to marry again.....to say, Willas?

Unless the Tyrells know where Sansa is, then LF may have double crossed the Tyrells. So is someone like Shadrich the Mad Mouse searching for Sansa on, say, the Tyrell's behalf? You would think more than just the crown is searching for her.

[John Suburbs]

Hmm...interesting topic! It's LF so....you would think that somewhere in this plan he did double cross the Tyrells. It ain't a LF plan unless everyone else takes the blame.

By having Sansa wear the hairnet, the Tyrells incriminate Sansa. But why? Sansa is really important if you want to secure the North, even if you are a Tyrell. Wouldn't it be better for the Tyrells to only incriminate Tyrion, keeping Sansa out of it? This seems like poor planning by the Tyrells to sell out Sansa. (Unless the hairnet is just a hairnet, but that's a theory for another day).

Even if the Boltons are the current Wardens of the North, Sansa is a better Northern rallying point than the Boltons ever were. (Even Tywin knew this, hense Sansa's marriage to Tyrion).

That way, Tyrion dies, and Sansa is free to marry again.....to say, Willas?

Unless the Tyrells know where Sansa is, then LF may have double crossed the Tyrells. So is someone like Shadrich the Mad Mouse searching for Sansa on, say, the Tyrell's behalf? You would think more than just the crown is searching for her.

The problem here, though, is that if Tyrion is eliminated and Sansa remains, then Tywin is free to marry her off to some other Lannister, or take her for himself.

The Tyrells need to remove her from Lannister control just as much as LF does.

And I think the MM and just about everyone else looking for Sansa is motivated by the bounty that Cersei has put on her head.

[Lion Of The Night]

The problem here, though, is that if Tyrion is eliminated and Sansa remains, then Tywin is free to marry her off to some other Lannister, or take her for himself.

The Tyrells need to remove her from Lannister control just as much as LF does.

And I think the MM and just about everyone else looking for Sansa is motivated by the bounty that Cersei has put on her head.

Thats why it is entirely possible, and in my opinion at least, extremely likely that part of the plot included getting Sansa out of Kings Landing. Sansa is a powerful piece on the board, you want her on your side, not off the board entirely, and getting her is a big risk, ut one worth taking.

As for the Lanisters, I may be mistaken, but I believe there were not many eligible Lanisters available to marry Sansa, at least not of the level, status and proximity to the core family that Tyrion was.

And we really know nothing about the mad mouse, sure most likely he is searching for Sansa for fortune, but we don't know that for sure, it is possible that there are other motivations on his side, or at least a different master that he reports to other than the crown.

[John Suburbs]

Thats why it is entirely possible, and in my opinion at least, extremely likely that part of the plot included getting Sansa out of Kings Landing. Sansa is a powerful piece on the board, you want her on your side, not off the board entirely, and getting her is a big risk, ut one worth taking.

As for the Lanisters, I may be mistaken, but I believe there were not many eligible Lanisters available to marry Sansa, at least not of the level, status and proximity to the core family that Tyrion was.

And we really know nothing about the mad mouse, sure most likely he is searching for Sansa for fortune, but we don't know that for sure, it is possible that there are other motivations on his side, or at least a different master that he reports to other than the crown.

Exactly, I have no end of trouble explaining on other threads why the Tyrells would care so much about Sansa and that if they couldn't get her, the next best thing is for her to go to LF. People keep insisting that the Tyrells don't care what happens to Sansa of the north because the northern army has been defeated and is therefore irrelevant.

This is also why I have so much trouble buying into the poisoned wine theory because, in order for everybody's needs to be met -- Joffrey dead (which I know you disagree, but I still contend runs counter to Tyrell interests, and LF's for that matter), Tyrion accused and slated for execution and Sansa in the Vale -- the entire sequence of events that took place would have had to be predicted with amazing accuracy. If Tyrion does not rise to the bait over the dwarf joust, no conflict with Joffrey. If the conflict does not involve the chalice, no way to accuse Tyrion of poisoning it. If the chalice does not wind up on the table directly in front of Garlen, Leonette or whoever did the poisoning (do you agree it could not have been Lady O herself?), the plan is busted. Heck, at the end, the only reason Cersei fingered Tyrion was because Joffrey was pointing at him and for some inexplicable reason Tyrion had picked up the chalice -- who could have planned that?

There are simply to many improbabilities with the wine for it to be poisoned. Reread the whole scene again, and ask yourself if the poison could have been in the pie instead.

[Colonel Green]

Thats why it is entirely possible, and in my opinion at least, extremely likely that part of the plot included getting Sansa out of Kings Landing.

It didn't. The entire existence of the hairnet is pointless if that was the case.

This is also why I have so much trouble buying into the poisoned wine theory because, in order for everybody's needs to be met -- Joffrey dead (which I know you disagree, but I still contend runs counter to Tyrell interests, and LF's for that matter), Tyrion accused and slated for execution and Sansa in the Vale -- the entire sequence of events that took place would have had to be predicted with amazing accuracy. If Tyrion does not rise to the bait over the dwarf joust, no conflict with Joffrey. If the conflict does not involve the chalice, no way to accuse Tyrion of poisoning it. If the chalice does not wind up on the table directly in front of Garlen, Leonette or whoever did the poisoning (do you agree it could not have been Lady O herself?), the plan is busted. Heck, at the end, the only reason Cersei fingered Tyrion was because Joffrey was pointing at him and for some inexplicable reason Tyrion had picked up the chalice -- who could have planned that?

The Tyrells aren't trying to frame Tyrion. They're hoping Joffrey dies and is thought to have choked, and, as a backup, that Sansa is held responsible. Tyrion doesn't enter into it (though after he's married to Sansa, his incrimination would seem at least likely if she were found out).

There are simply to many improbabilities with the wine for it to be poisoned. Reread the whole scene again, and ask yourself if the poison could have been in the pie instead.

No, the poison wasn't in the pie, because that presumes the target was Tyrion, and that wasn't the case. Everything indicates that Joffrey was the target.

[John Suburbs]

Hi Colonel. I was wondering when you would drop in.

Sorry, but you are the one who is wrong. The vast time discrepancy between the Cressen and Joffrey poisonings is proof of that.

But I don't think it's fair to hijack this thread to go through all that again. If anyone is interested, go to

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/117282-who-poisoned-joffrey-and-when-and-how/

[Lion Of The Night]

Hi Colonel. I was wondering when you would drop in.

Sorry, but you are the one who is wrong. The vast time discrepancy between the Cressen and Joffrey poisonings is proof of that.

But I don't think it's fair to hijack this thread to go through all that again. If anyone is interested, go to

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/117282-who-poisoned-joffrey-and-when-and-how/

Thanks, John Suburbs, too many threads on this site get lost in flame wars.

I will conceed that the "poison pie" theory has some merit, though I am not fully convinced until we get more info. However, we can agree that whatever plan the Tyrells put in place, getting rid of tyrion was a major point of it.

[Light a wight tonight]

But what was the benefit of implicating Sansa? Yes it is an easy target, but it does no one any good.

It does help Baelish. Sansa being implicated in the poisoning allows him to become her "protector". It may keep her away from the tender mercies of Ilyn Payne but it isolates her from any real help.