New theory: Varys and the Prince that was Promised

[Ivashanko]

Note: I think this theory hasn't been advanced before, but I'm not sure. If it has then I'm sorry for the repetitious topic.

A lot of people seem to disregard Varys' continuous pleas that he is acting 'for the good of the realm'. They claim that he is interested only in a Targaryen Restoration, and that his use of children with their tongues cut off and his scheming to put the powers at war and bring a horde across the sea show that he cannot possibly be the servant of peace he likes to claim he is. I disagree. I believe that he serves the Targaryens not because he particularly cares who sits on the Iron Throne, but rather because he believes in the power and prophecies surrounding R'hollor, particularly that of the Prince that was Promised/Azor Ahai. I believe that Varys thinks the two are one and the same.

In this is the case than Varys can be doing terrible things and things that are obviously in the interest of a Targaryen Restoration and still be working for the 'good of the realm'. If he does believe in the Others and the Neverending Winter it makes sense that all ethical concerns are made irrelevant in the face of obliteration. For Varys, the ends really do justify the means, and to serve the realm and the cause of peace means defeating the Others no matter the cost. When he kills Sir Kevin, he really does not mean him any ill will. He doesn't mean the King any ill will either. He might really believe that Aegon is the Prince that was Promised, or that someone else in the Targaryen line is, and that means that the old needs to be swept away because they are all 'good men in service to bad causes'. What worse cause could there be than a cause that keeps the savoir of the world from assuming power in all his glory?

Less concretely, Varys also seems to try and help the Night's Watch on several occasions. He tries to send Ned Stark to the Wall, which would almost certainly cause an influx of men on the Wall as several of Ned's loyal bannermen (and his son) send troops to fight alongside their liege lord. Furthermore, Ned's word couldn't be ignored- if he proclaimed to all the North that the Others were back, it would be impossible to ignore him. Varys also praises Tyrion for sending men to the watch, even though there would be no real reason to do so if Varys thought that there was nothing to worry about there. I'm not so sure about this part of the theory myself, and I don't actually have the books in front of me to see if there are any more textual hints about Varys subtly supporting the Night's Watch, but if anyone knows more about it that'd be helpful.

Varys has plenty of reason to believe in the theory. He would have certainly known about Rhaegar Targaryen's near fixation on the prophecy, and may have even saved Rhaegar's son because he himself believed it. This would also explain why he seems to be so much more careful about the upbringing of Aegon, when compared to his extremely lackadaisical treatment of Daenerys and Viserys (whom he kinda just throws out into the plains to fend for themselves, and there doesn't seem to be any indication that he cared about Viserys death). He would also know about the Red Priests in their temples and their general prophecies just from being born in that part of the world and because of his own general search for knowledge.

Given his (in some cases absurdly) incredibly efficient spy service there is every chance that he knows about the Others massing above the Wall: he almost certainly has contacts in the Night's Watch, and even if that is not the case he probably would have heard about the dead moving hand that Sir Alistair Thorne brought down with him before it decayed.

More importantly, however, is the scene where Varys tells Tyrion about how he was castrated. We have no indication that Varys is lying, and, indeed, I cannot think of any particularly good reason for Varys to lie about something so seemingly outlandish. But if what Varys said did occur than Varys has all the confirmation he needs that there is something supernatural about the Red God. The knowledge that the Red God exists in some form or another gives a large dose of validity to anything else connected to R'hllor, which includes the prophecy of Azor Ahai. I do not think Varys is a follower of the Red God, but I think he believes that sometimes sacrifices (castration/ripping the tongues out of children) for the greater good (more power for a God who is hopefully benign/getting enough power to bring AA to a place where he can stop the Others and the long night) are more important than any lesser concern.

A final note: It is difficult to believe that Varys did not know something interesting was going on in the Tower of Joy. I'm surprised more people weren't curious about where three members of the Kingsguard were during the final days of the Mad King, but it is strains belief that Varys wouldn't have tried hard to find out where they were. I'm pretty positive he doesn't know about Jon (otherwise he would have put a lot of effort into relocating him somewhere safer), so I can't help but think that this is simply a plothole. Plothole or not, it is still interesting to note.

[Ivashanko]

Also, why would Varys go so far out of his way to save Aegon (assuming that it is indeed the real Aegon), while not bothering to save his sister or his mother? Well, if my theory is correct, it is because Varys didn't think the risk worth it. They were simply humans, with no great destiny to play and no world-ending cataclysm to stop. Aegon was worth every risk, though, which is why Varys saved him and left the others to die and let D and V be exposed and open. If Robert somehow caught wind of any Targaryen, it could be passed off as one of those two instead of Aegon.

[Archmaester Drew]

Good question -- what did Varys know? What was his relationship with Rhaegar like? :cheers:

[OberynBlackfyre]

I think your theory could very well be plausible. Something GRRM said really made me rethink Varys....and that was when he was asked "who do you think the most misunderstood characters of the series are?" And his reply was "Oh, probably Melisandre and Varys."

Melisandre- we really don't have enough info to make any assumption on how we have guessed her wrongly. All I know is that for the beginning of the books she appears somewhat villainous.

Varys on the other hand........Varys has pleaded that he is working for the realm since Ned was in the Black Cells. I really do think he is working with the mindset that his cause is the truly just one....to give a king to the realm that is worthy of sitting on the throne and that can actually empathize with the plights of his people.

edit: It has often been questioned as to how MUCH Varys knew about what was going on during Roberts Rebellion and then the final days of Aerys. I think Varys fully knows something went down at the Tower of Joy, however I think he also believe that Jon poses almost NO threat whatsoever when he hears that he has joined the Night Watch.

[BitsOfBrains]

Its possible.

Varys claims to have a pretty heavy duty antipathy towards magic and its users. Not sure if that extends to prophecy.

He does seem to be a "believer" in the weird judging from his castration narration.

[Rorey Targaryen]

I think your theory could very well be plausible. Something GRRM said really made me rethink Varys....and that was when he was asked "who do you think the most misunderstood characters of the series are?" And his reply was "Oh, probably Melisandre and Varys."

Varys on the other hand........Varys has pleaded that he is working for the realm since Ned was in the Black Cells. I really do think he is working with the mindset that his cause is the truly just one....to give a king to the realm that is worthy of sitting on the throne and that can actually empathize with the plights of his people.

Here's my thing with Varys; he serves the realm and wants peace, but has his own vision on how to successfully achieve long term peace. He seizes the opportunity to take the person with the strongest alternative claim to the Throne (be it the actual person, as I believe, or merely the identity of that person, as the Pisswater Prince theorists believe), mold that person into a King that the realm needs, and do everything in his power (morality be damned) to make sure that his candidate gets the Throne and keeps it long enough to rule the land in the manner as he has been taught.

[Ivashanko]

Good question -- what did Varys know? What was his relationship with Rhaegar like? :cheers:

I suppose it is possible that Varys' spying operations only really became truly efficient during the period between the end of the Mad King and the start of the books, but I think it likely that Varys knew much and more about the Prince, including his obsession with tPtwP.

I think your theory could very well be plausible. Something GRRM said really made me rethink Varys....and that was when he was asked "who do you think the most misunderstood characters of the series are?" And his reply was "Oh, probably Melisandre and Varys."

Melisandre- we really don't have enough info to make any assumption on how we have guessed her wrongly. All I know is that for the beginning of the books she appears somewhat villainous.

Varys on the other hand........Varys has pleaded that he is working for the realm since Ned was in the Black Cells. I really do think he is working with the mindset that his cause is the truly just one....to give a king to the realm that is worthy of sitting on the throne and that can actually empathize with the plights of his people.

edit: It has often been questioned as to how MUCH Varys knew about what was going on during Roberts Rebellion and then the final days of Aerys. I think Varys fully knows something went down at the Tower of Joy, however I think he also believe that Jon poses almost NO threat whatsoever when he hears that he has joined the Night Watch.

I don't think Varys really cares about a king who empathizes with the plight of the people. Or, to be more precise, that he does, but that concern is an order of magnitude less significant than his desire to get AA in a position where he can stop the Others from killing everyone. That is what is significant.

And I think that if Varys knew that Jon was R, Targaryen's third son he would go all out in trying to keep him save and protected, as he would know that R. (among others) believed that there must 'be a third'. And when Varys found out about D's three dragons... well, then it would become imperative to save Jon and get him into a position where he could take his rightful place as a dragon-rider.

Its possible.

Varys claims to have a pretty heavy duty antipathy towards magic and its users. Not sure if that extends to prophecy.

He does seem to be a "believer" in the weird judging from his castration narration.

Yeah, this really struck me the first time I read it. I think it is the strongest piece of evidence backing up this theory.

[Ivashanko]

Here's my thing with Varys; he serves the realm and wants peace, but has his own views on how to successfully achieve long term peace. He seizes the opportunity to take the person with the strongest alternative claim to the Throne (be it the actual person, as I believe, or merely the identity), mold that person into a King that the realm needs, and do everything in his power (morality be damned) to make sure that his candidate gets the Throne and keeps it.

But is that really just? Can that be said to 'serve the realm', or to 'bring about peace' when he is watching thousands die? And when the winters come tens of thousands more will starve- taking the men out of the field to fight has caused more deaths in one individual war in the real world (during the Qing conquest of the Ming Dynasty; the Taiping Rebellion is another excellent example though) than fighting in any other war save the Second World War. How many more will die in a world where winter can last for decades? Maybe Varys is too blind to see this, but I don't think so. I think it much more likely that he is willing to sacrifice those tens of thousands in order to save everyone in the realm and outside of it. He can do this by stopping the Others through the use of AA.

Now, I don't think Aegon is AA, which makes the whole thing rather tragic. But given Varys' possible limited knowledge of the situation he is doing what is (I believe objectively) the correct thing.

[OberynBlackfyre]

I suppose it is possible that Varys' spying operations only really became truly efficient during the period between the end of the Mad King and the start of the books, but I think it likely that Varys knew much and more about the Prince, including his obsession with tPtwP.

I don't think Varys really cares about a king who empathizes with the plight of the people. Or, to be more precise, that he does, but that concern is an order of magnitude less significant than his desire to get AA in a position where he can stop the Others from killing everyone. That is what is significant.

And I think that if Varys knew that Jon was R, Targaryen's third son he would go all out in trying to keep him save and protected, as he would know that R. (among others) believed that there must 'be a third'. And when Varys found out about D's three dragons... well, then it would become imperative to save Jon and get him into a position where he could take his rightful place as a dragon-rider.

Yeah, this really struck me the first time I read it. I think it is the strongest piece of evidence backing up this theory.

mmm yes and no. I think you are putting too much belief that Varys' true fight is against the Others. I mean if that was true, why even keep Dany and Viserys alive AT ALL? Doing so is now leading to what could be the second dance of dragons....however it was something that the Golden Company said that made me think that Aegon has Varys' full backing.......but is not who they say.

When talking about what is to be done, one stress that they "NEED THE MARRIAGE." this above anything i think somewhat proves that Aegon is a Blackfyre and whilst capable.....does not have that clear of a right to the throne.

[Ivashanko]

mmm yes and no. I think you are putting too much belief that Varys' true fight is against the Others. I mean if that was true, why even keep Dany and Viserys alive AT ALL? Doing so is now leading to what could be the second dance of dragons....however it was something that the Golden Company said that made me think that Aegon has Varys' full backing.......but is not who they say.

When talking about what is to be done, one stress that they "NEED THE MARRIAGE." this above anything i think somewhat proves that Aegon is a Blackfyre and whilst capable.....does not have that clear of a right to the throne.

He might not want to kill them for many reasons: Varys might think it likely that Aegon is AA, but he is not sure. He might not want to risk killing a possible AA. Maybe it is because their existence offers cover to Aegon. If they are around and obvious it would be much easier for Varys to keep Aegon's existence from reaching the ears of anyone who might wish to stop him from succeeding. There existence certainly makes it easier to Varys to give Aegon legitimacy when he comes back- no one will likely question the word of either Danny or Vis when it comes to who is and who is not a member of their family. It might be because Varys doesn't think a second Dance of the Dragons is at all likely: the Targaryan are much more likely to band together during their time of weakness, rather than apart.

More likely it is because he believes he might be able to use Vis to cause the Targaryan Restoration and then kill him and let Aegon (who he would have already introduced to Danny and Vis via his fat friend in Pentos) reign as king by Danny's side. That does seem to be his plan at one point, but maybe because Vis was so weak and pathetic he kind of gives up on it at the end and leaves it for last.

As for the marriage: Danny has three dragons. She has the closest thing to an instant win button in the entire world. That makes a marriage alliance with her extremely important. And even if Aegon is a Targaryan there will be those who question his legitimacy. Marrying Danny gets rid of that stigma. He doesn't need to be a Blackfyre at all for that to be valid.

[Rorey Targaryen]

But is that really just? Can that be said to 'serve the realm', or to 'bring about peace' when he is watching thousands die? And when the winters come tens of thousands more will starve- taking the men out of the field to fight has caused more deaths in one individual war in the real world (during the Qing conquest of the Ming Dynasty; the Taiping Rebellion is another excellent example though) than any other war save the Second World War (or the First World War if you include the Spanish Influenza). How many more will die in a world where winter can last for decades? Maybe Varys is too blind to see this, but I don't think so. I think it much more likely that he is willing to sacrifice those tens of thousands in order to save everyone in the realm and outside of it. He can do this by stopping the Others through the use of AA.

Now, I don't think Aegon is AA, which makes the whole thing rather tragic. But given Varys' possible limited knowledge of the situation he is doing what is (I believe objectively) the correct thing.

Whist I have no doubt that Varys would have heard rumors of what was going on beyond the Wall, I don't think that he's concerned with fighting the Others (I don't even think he believes in them or that "Winter is Coming"). When taking into account his disdain for magic and magic users (who would generally amount to the Red Priests), I find it hard to believe that he would even consider the prophesy of AA as a motivating factor for his actions. I think his main concern is giving Westeros a good, capable King (the one that he molded) and is willing to take a "greater good" approach and do whatever is necessary to put that King on the Throne.

[Ivashanko]

Whist I have no doubt that Varys would have heard rumors of what was going on beyond the Wall, I don't think that he's concerned with fighting the Others (I don't even think he believes in them or that "Winter is Coming"). When taking into account his disdain for magic and magic users (who would generally amount to the Red Priests), I find it hard to believe that he would even consider the prophesy of AA as a motivating factor for his actions. I think his main concern is giving Westeros a good, capable King (the one that he molded) and is willing to take a "greater good" approach and do whatever is necessary to put that King on the Throne.

I think he dislikes sorcery, but he certainly believes in it and its power and the power of the Red God. If you have empirical evidence that go a long way towards proving the existence of a God (whether that God is benevolent or not) everything connected to that God (prophecies included) instantly gain credence. Varys is not a stupid man. Even if he dislikes magic and sorcery, he knows that they are not things to be trifled with or ignored. I have no doubt that once Varys heard about the Others reappearing in the North he believed in them; given his connection with R. Targaryan and his own background, it would be very foolish if he did not at least investigate the matter seriously. And I believe that he knew about them, and has been trying to stop them, since the beginning.

In the end, if Varys believes he is 'serving the realm' by potentially bringing tens of thousands of Dothraki screamers to Westeros, or by getting the big Houses to fight against each other when winter really is coming, then the man is delusional and becomes a much less interesting character.

Perhaps that is what GRRM meant when he said Varys is 'misunderstood'- we all believe that he is a mastermind manipulator, when it reality he is simply delusional (albeit a delusional mastermind manipulator).

[bent branch]

OP, I agree with your basic premise that Varys is working off the AA/PTWP/3HotD prophecies. However, I'm not sure exactly what he is trying to accomplish since different people think different things are going to happen once this prophesied hero arrives.

One point I would like to make before this discussion goes further is that red priest =/= sorcerer. The evidence we have for this is Thoros. While Thoros is a red priest he is not a sorcerer. Beric's resurrection was a miracle that occurred while Thoros was performing standard R'hllor funeral rites. We have yet to see another red priest perform this miracle. Also, the only other action we see Thoros that is performed by the other red priests is fire scrying. This is not considered a "magic" act, but rather an act of religious observance. Communing with their god so to speak. Therefore, Varys' distaste of magic may tell us nothing about his feelings on R'hllor.

[Fisch]

In the end, if Varys believes he is 'serving the realm' by potentially bringing tens of thousands of Dothraki screamers to Westeros, or by getting the big Houses to fight against each other when winter really is coming, then the man is delusional and becomes a much less interesting character.

Perhaps that is what GRRM meant when he said Varys is 'misunderstood'- we all believe that he is a mastermind manipulator, when it reality he is simply delusional (albeit a delusional mastermind manipulator).

Frankly, I'm more inclined to believe that. And that Melisandre is misunderstood in a similar way (i.e. not taking the hint on her visions of Snow).

[Kyoshi]

I actually like this theory. :cheers: Maybe because I really like Varys.

Anyway, and maybe off-topic, but are Varys's little birds without their tongues because someone removed them or is it that Varys just seeks children who were born mute? Like the Silent Sisters, for the longest time I thought someone was removing their tongues then we found out they were just born without their voices.

[Red Rahloo Connington]

I can't see Varys and Rhaegar being on the same page. If what is believed is true (that Rhaegar had Oswell Whent convince his family to host a huge tourney too assemble as many high lords as possible, while remaining inconspuous and gain support to over throw his father) then Varys was the one to ruin Rhaegars plans by telling the mad king Rhaegars intentions.

But then again who the hell knows what was going on in Rhaegars head

[Ivashanko]

OP, I agree with your basic premise that Varys is working off the AA/PTWP/3HotD prophecies. However, I'm not sure exactly what he is trying to accomplish since different people think different things are going to happen once this prophesied hero arrives.

One point I would like to make before this discussion goes further is that red priest =/= sorcerer. The evidence we have for this is Thoros. While Thoros is a red priest he is not a sorcerer. Beric's resurrection was a miracle that occurred while Thoros was performing standard R'hllor funeral rites. We have yet to see another red priest perform this miracle. Also, the only other action we see Thoros that is performed by the other red priests is fire scrying. This is not considered a "magic" act, but rather an act of religious observance. Communing with their god so to speak. Therefore, Varys' distaste of magic may tell us nothing about his feelings on R'hllor.

Excellent point. And it could be that he is interested in something that is not the Others- though I still think he is- but even if he is not he could easily justify the ongoing deaths he is causing by arguing that things will work out when tPtwP comes.

I really enjoy the inverting of religious motifs if this is the case. The savoir would come on the back of a man with no scruples a great deal of blood on his hands. Of course when Aegon inevitably turns out not to be tPtwP, all of what Varys has done turns out to be for nougat. For worse than nothing, actually- he has set Westeros ablaze for a lie. His finding out could be a very powerful scene, if done correctly.

Frankly, I'm more inclined to believe that. And that Melisandre is misunderstood in a similar way (i.e. not taking the hint on her visions of Snow).

On further reflection, him being a delusional force for evil in Westeros would be somewhat amusing. I'm okay if your theory turns out to be the correct one, but I still think mine is very plausible.

I actually like this theory. :cheers: Maybe because I really like Varys.

Anyway, and maybe off-topic, but are Varys's little birds without their tongues because someone removed them or is it that Varys just seeks children who were born mute? Like the Silent Sisters, for the longest time I thought someone was removing their tongues then we found out they were just born without their voices.

I don't think we have any indication that someone else is removing the tongues, but I guess it is still possible.

I can't see Varys and Rhaegar being on the same page. If what is believed is true (that Rhaegar had Oswell Whent convince his family to host a huge tourney too assemble as many high lords as possible, while remaining inconspuous and gain support to over throw his father) then Varys was the one to ruin Rhaegars plans by telling the mad king Rhaegars intentions.

But then again who the hell knows what was going on in Rhaegars head

There are a lot of possible answers to this objection, including that Varys wanted to keep Aegon under his control when he was growing up, or that Varys didn't believe the Mad King might pose a threat latter to Aegon. I'm going to look through the book latter for some hard(er) evidence to back these theories up, because I remember the last time I read through the book there was at least one other strong point I thought up, but I just can't remember what it is.

[OberynBlackfyre]

I think he dislikes sorcery, but he certainly believes in it and its power and the power of the Red God. If you have empirical evidence that go a long way towards proving the existence of a God (whether that God is benevolent or not) everything connected to that God (prophecies included) instantly gain credence. Varys is not a stupid man. Even if he dislikes magic and sorcery, he knows that they are not things to be trifled with or ignored. I have no doubt that once Varys heard about the Others reappearing in the North he believed in them; given his connection with R. Targaryan and his own background, it would be very foolish if he did not at least investigate the matter seriously. And I believe that he knew about them, and has been trying to stop them, since the beginning.

In the end, if Varys believes he is 'serving the realm' by potentially bringing tens of thousands of Dothraki screamers to Westeros, or by getting the big Houses to fight against each other when winter really is coming, then the man is delusional and becomes a much less interesting character.

Perhaps that is what GRRM meant when he said Varys is 'misunderstood'- we all believe that he is a mastermind manipulator, when it reality he is simply delusional (albeit a delusional mastermind manipulator).

this^ I think you are hitting it right on the head when you are saying that Vrys is somewhat delusional. Do not forget that Varys is not the only one that concocted this plan....Illyrio is very much a part of it, and might even be pulling the strings with Varys too. I mean look at their conversation in the first book,,,,,I would say that is the only time we see Varys talk to someone as a direct equal and even get any hint of their plans.

If his true fight is against the Others, you don't want to goad the realm into spending large amounts of their fighting force against each other and to continue to destabilize the realm when in the end you are going to NEED those people to fight sgainst the real enemy. Varys has been working on this plan for YEARS and we only know of the White Walkers coming back for maybe a year.......I don't think Varys is looking at the WW at all.

[Ivashanko]

this^ I think you are hitting it right on the head when you are saying that Vrys is somewhat delusional. Do not forget that Varys is not the only one that concocted this plan....Illyrio is very much a part of it, and might even be pulling the strings with Varys too. I mean look at their conversation in the first book,,,,,I would say that is the only time we see Varys talk to someone as a direct equal and even get any hint of their plans.

If his true fight is against the Others, you don't want to goad the realm into spending large amounts of their fighting force against each other and to continue to destabilize the realm when in the end you are going to NEED those people to fight sgainst the real enemy. Varys has been working on this plan for YEARS and we only know of the White Walkers coming back for maybe a year.......I don't think Varys is looking at the WW at all.

In the prophecies and the stories of TLH and of AA, iirc, the lesser soldiers don't matter at all. It is the coming of the savior that halts the Others. It is possible that Varys is willing to sacrifice the fighting forces of Westeros because, in the end, he believes they don't matter at all compared to the savior. And, in all honesty, he might be right about that.

And we know Illyrio is at least familiar with the Red God. I think he hides his belief from Vis and Danny, and is actually a bit of a fervent member of the religion, or at least believes in it because of Varys' testimony.

I guess (one of) the crux of the argument is this: why would Varys lie to Tyrion? And if he didn't die, then why wouldn't he take the knowledge that the Red God exists in some form or another to its logical conclusion?