GRRM's UK Editor Jane Johnson re-enforces TWOW unlikely for 2015

[HosteenOsteen]

I think you are on the right track, though not about ADOS, but I feel TWOW is three-fourth done by now.....maybe it is just wishful thinking though.

my view is that both tWoW and ADOS are largely written. he is editing them both, has shared both with D&D and its all about optimal timing of release. each year that goes by, more young people get old enough for this subject matter, both in books and HBO. stretching it out expands the customer base significantly. sure, its horrible to think that they stretched it out for some people in their 80's who will sadly die before the books or show come out and will have to rest eternally without knowing if R+L really does =J. but for Random House and HBO, thats a small to zero part of the audience compared to the millions of 14-17 year olds who could get into the series and buy 8 books, a few maps and a bunch of DVD's. serious coin. so book 6 will conveniently come out at the end of season 5, when hype is at its peak. and book 7 will come out in between the end of season 6 and start of season 7. its quite possible that HBO could stretch out the timing of the show too. nothing says it needs to be every spring. if they stick with spring 2015 for season 5, then book six is probably out in time for xmas 2015, so everyone will buy it (and load up on the DVD of season 5, which will surely have some extra scenes and a dunk and egg story too). repeat for season 6 of the show and book 7....

[toffeejay]

As I've said before, all GRRM pacing problems come from refusing to write anywhere else other than this own computer at his own home. He'd probably have finished the series already otherwise.

This. Plus since the show went really global around end of season 2/start season 3 he's spending more and more time doing interviews, conventions.

Sorry but its almost every day I'm seeing an interview with him (where he answers the exact same questions).

If he wants to finish he needs to reign in the amount of PR work he's doing. Predicting 2016-17.

[sifth]

George isn't Superman. When you take on ten side projects while writing a 1500 page book, this shit happens.

[cxvb]

my view is that both tWoW and ADOS are largely written. he is editing them both, has shared both with D&D and its all about optimal timing of release. each year that goes by, more young people get old enough for this subject matter, both in books and HBO. stretching it out expands the customer base significantly. sure, its horrible to think that they stretched it out for some people in their 80's who will sadly die before the books or show come out and will have to rest eternally without knowing if R+L really does =J. but for Random House and HBO, thats a small to zero part of the audience compared to the millions of 14-17 year olds who could get into the series and buy 8 books, a few maps and a bunch of DVD's. serious coin. so book 6 will conveniently come out at the end of season 5, when hype is at its peak. and book 7 will come out in between the end of season 6 and start of season 7. its quite possible that HBO could stretch out the timing of the show too. nothing says it needs to be every spring. if they stick with spring 2015 for season 5, then book six is probably out in time for xmas 2015, so everyone will buy it (and load up on the DVD of season 5, which will surely have some extra scenes and a dunk and egg story too). repeat for season 6 of the show and book 7....

This sort of incredibly dumb fantasy is repeated every time the topic comes up. It posits the desired result and then concocts some elaborate and outlandish rationale under which the actual state of the world ("no release date in sight, editors say 2015 is unlikely") can be reconciled with the fantasy ("books almost done").

To wit, your scenario doesn't make sense on any level. For one, the material would be available for current kids either way. If they need the hype then, a new series, a new book in Westeros will fix that nicely. Second, George enjoys doing new stuff, if he was done with ASoIaF you bet you'd hear about what he's excited to do next. Listen to almost any interview with the man. And don't ascribe outlandish behaviour to him and attribute it to greed. Third, the show already spoiled bits and pieces from future books. Bran and Sansa are at the end of their ADWD material and will appear next season. If there is any link between book release and series, releasing the next book before s5 would make more sense. If on the other hand the concern is not with spoiling the books but just increasing the audience, would they release both books right before the final season starts. Or what until after. Fourth, the show spoiling the book will hurt book sales. The hype around the show offsets that somewhat, but that hype developed based on material that was published. We know that the hype is not lessened despite everyone being able to read ahead. We also know that some people don't care for the books once they know what happens from the show. Ergo, no downside to publishing as soon as possible, but a considerable risk should the show end first. Fifth: George took a long time to write AFFC and ADWD, his public appearances have increased (until recently) there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to assume his writing pace has tripled (to get both books almost done). Plus, him being quiet about it, instead of sharing the news of his newfound writing speed with the world. Instead, he lies to his fans that he's still a slow writer.

Sixth: Nobody does that. Name one example of something being held back for every 100 examples of writers simply being late, having trouble with the material, life getting in the way and so on. At most releases are withheld a couple of months to better coincide with something else, to get some synergy. But nobody sits on stuff for years when there is a hungry audience. Because the people in these businesses are very, very aware that the next hot thing is just around the corner and they ought to make what money they can while interest is high.

Please stop deluding yourself.

[Faceless Man Friday]

We know nothing.

[Werthead]

2016 leaves him NO room to finish the series before the show.

I have to agree with what others have said. That ship has sailed. Unless TWoW is pretty much done and now and he's already well into ADoS (and we know that's not the case), there is no realistic chance of the books being finished before the TV series. The time has run out. In fact, if TWoW had come out six months ago, it'd already be probably too late for ADoS.

She's just stating her speculative opinion as many do here. She knows no more on the subject than anyone else. She does not receive anything until he is completely done and is not intimately involved in his process.

This is 100% inaccurate. GRRM's primary editor is his American one, Anne Groell, but Jane Johnson does get regular updates, sometimes completed sections of the manuscript and so on. Plus speaking to George in person at some length.

He doesn't need to make predictions about a release date. He can very simply tell us how far along he is or how many manuscript pages are completed. At least we could gauge his progress and see where he's at without him making empty promises about when it'll come out.

This didn't work with ADWD, so he's not doing it this time around.

GRRM's usual procedure is to write a chapter, rewrite it a few times and send it to his editors. Once his editors had suggested improvements and he had integrated them, he would declare the chapter finished and update his MS page count with them. He'd do that once or twice a year (more towards the end) through the writing of ADWD.

The problem was that due to the Knot and other areas where there were lots of changes (like Jon Snow's chapters), the incomplete chapters would send big changes through the apparently-already done chapters, and he have to rewrite those, despite them already being "finished". So his MS page count became unreliable and in some years he would lose pages from his page count rather than increase them because of this. So he's not doing it this time around because he doesn't trust that it will be useful in working out when the book will be finished, and may raise false hopes or cause misinformation (as Mormont says upthread).

Part of this also seems down to the fact that GRRM is not giving his editor as many pages as frequently as he did on AFFC and ADWD, and he won't declare those pages completed until they are edited. The last time he game Groell some MS pages (168, IIRC, in February 2013), it raised the total page count to 350-odd, or about one-quarter of the novel done. For all we know he could have written and finished another 500 in that time, but because they haven't been with this editor he won't declare them done.

It's also worth remembering that the MS page count only refers to his completed, edited material. He usually has a lot more in first drafts, fragments and partials, some of which may be 95% final and some may need to be junked and reworked from scratch.

Not necessarily. ACOK and ASOS both took 2 years for him to write, so I'd say spring 2015 would be the point of no return. Of course, that would rely on George returning to his fastest writing speed for ADOS, and not many people would be willing to bet on that happening.

AGoT-ACoK-ASoS were originally planned to be one novel and were pretty much written as one, with him breaking off whenever the MS became too big. They're more like one super-large novel executed over the better part of nine years. Averaging things out, the writing speed on ACoK and ASoS was more like three years each; he had a huge amount of ACoK finished before AGoT even came out, and a lot of ASoS done when ACoK came out. He also had something of an outline he was following at that point, which got chucked out when the five-year-gap plan collapsed.

Oh it'll be completed. Probably by Brandon Sanderson.

I know this was a (tiresome, old) joke, but Sanderson has specifically ruled himself out from ever doing this.

When you take on ten side projects while writing a 1500 page book, this shit happens.

True, but those side projects were also completed and done quite some time ago. They're why relatively little got done in 2011-12 (that 'lost year' of 2012 when the focus was on other things will I think be regretted the most). Now there isn't anything on the horizon, nor has there been for a good year or so. This is why the current lack of news is frustrating, as GRRM has had a large chunk of time to get a large chunk of the book done, but outside of some general positivity (he's working well, he's not having to do anywhere near as much rewriting and so on) there are no specifics.

[ChillyPolly]

The last time he game Groell some MS pages (168, IIRC, in February 2013), it raised the total page count to 350-odd, or about one-quarter of the novel done.

This is AFAIK incorrect. Whenever GRRM submits a "partial", it includes everything he had submitted previously. See his discussion about this in "Talking about the Dance" in his May 19, 2011 Not-A-Blog.

There was no new total of 350 pages. 168 pages WAS the new total. And it does not even include a certain Tyrion chapter that he had been reading at conventions.

Anything more than this is, at best, unconfirmed.

[scotcat]

The book will be done when it's done. Yes, the wait is terrible, but as we know GRRM writes at his own pace & nothing will make him go faster.

This endless speculation and/or bitching about GRRM's writing pace are conducive to absolutely nothing.

[Edmure's Floppy Fish]

This is AFAIK incorrect. Whenever GRRM submits a "partial", it includes everything he had submitted previously. See his discussion about this in "Talking about the Dance" in his May 19, 2011 Not-A-Blog.

There was no new total of 350 pages. 168 pages WAS the new total. And it does not even include a certain Tyrion chapter that he had been reading at conventions.

Anything more than this is, at best, unconfirmed.

I think you misinterpreted GRRM's comments.

"Over the years I've sent various partial manuscripts to my editors, to show them where I was at that particular point in time. Now that the race is finally run, I went back and took another look at some of those old files. The page counts given in what follows refer only to COMPLETE CHAPTERS in final draft form... or what I thought was "complete" and "final" at that time. In each case, I had many pages of additional chapters roughed out or partially written, but those pages were not included in my count." GRRM, May 2011, Not a Blog.

I understood it as he sent his editor manuscript pages from a partially finished book, not partially finished chapters. How could an editor provide feedback on his work if it ended in the middle of a chapter or was missing important information? He even expresses that what he sent her was completed chapters my using all caps.

Me and Wertz has had our differences in the past, but I think he is right in saying that GRRM only sends Anne what he believes to be, finished pages, at a time.

[The Human Abstract]

This is 100% inaccurate. GRRM's primary editor is his American one, Anne Groell, but Jane Johnson does get regular updates, sometimes completed sections of the manuscript and so on. Plus speaking to George in person at some length.

My mistake then. I recalled her saying in an interview some years ago that she didn't typically receive regular updates from George. In addition, her recent statements make it sound like she certainly isn't being updated frequently now, although this could be interpreted as little progress being made.

[ChillyPolly]

I think you misinterpreted GRRM's comments.

"Over the years I've sent various partial manuscripts to my editors, to show them where I was at that particular point in time. Now that the race is finally run, I went back and took another look at some of those old files. The page counts given in what follows refer only to COMPLETE CHAPTERS in final draft form... or what I thought was "complete" and "final" at that time. In each case, I had many pages of additional chapters roughed out or partially written, but those pages were not included in my count." GRRM, May 2011, Not a Blog.

I understood it as he sent his editor manuscript pages from a partially finished book, not partially finished chapters.

I did not misunderstand anything. Werthead was talking about completed pages and so was I. Werthead believes the completed count is 350 pages, whereas I believe that the completed count is 168 pages. We both agree there is rough, unfinished, and/or unsubmitted material above and beyond the "completed" count.

I agree with you that when GRRM submits a "partial" to his editor, it only includes completed chapters.

In the past, it has been GRRM's habit, when he give progress updates, to give updates in terms of "completed" pages submitted to his editor. That count, as far as I can tell, still stands at 168 pages, as of this past June, per Anne Groell.

[Edmure's Floppy Fish]

I did not misunderstand anything. Werthead was talking about completed pages and so was I. Werthead believes the completed count is 350 pages, whereas I believe that the completed count is 168 pages. We both agree there is rough, unfinished, and/or unsubmitted material above and beyond the "completed" count.

I agree with you that when GRRM submits a "partial" to his editor, it only includes completed chapters.

In the past, it has been GRRM's habit, when he give progress updates, to give updates in terms of "completed" pages submitted to his editor. That count, as far as I can tell, still stands at 168 pages, as of this past June, per Anne Groell.

Yes your right about that. I took Anne's comments to mean she had only received 168 pages total, not in addition to the pages left out if Dance.

[sifth]

I have to agree with what others have said. That ship has sailed. Unless TWoW is pretty much done and now and he's already well into ADoS (and we know that's not the case), there is no realistic chance of the books being finished before the TV series. The time has run out. In fact, if TWoW had come out six months ago, it'd already be probably too late for ADoS.

This is 100% inaccurate. GRRM's primary editor is his American one, Anne Groell, but Jane Johnson does get regular updates, sometimes completed sections of the manuscript and so on. Plus speaking to George in person at some length.

This didn't work with ADWD, so he's not doing it this time around.

GRRM's usual procedure is to write a chapter, rewrite it a few times and send it to his editors. Once his editors had suggested improvements and he had integrated them, he would declare the chapter finished and update his MS page count with them. He'd do that once or twice a year (more towards the end) through the writing of ADWD.

The problem was that due to the Knot and other areas where there were lots of changes (like Jon Snow's chapters), the incomplete chapters would send big changes through the apparently-already done chapters, and he have to rewrite those, despite them already being "finished". So his MS page count became unreliable and in some years he would lose pages from his page count rather than increase them because of this. So he's not doing it this time around because he doesn't trust that it will be useful in working out when the book will be finished, and may raise false hopes or cause misinformation (as Mormont says upthread).

Part of this also seems down to the fact that GRRM is not giving his editor as many pages as frequently as he did on AFFC and ADWD, and he won't declare those pages completed until they are edited. The last time he game Groell some MS pages (168, IIRC, in February 2013), it raised the total page count to 350-odd, or about one-quarter of the novel done. For all we know he could have written and finished another 500 in that time, but because they haven't been with this editor he won't declare them done.

It's also worth remembering that the MS page count only refers to his completed, edited material. He usually has a lot more in first drafts, fragments and partials, some of which may be 95% final and some may need to be junked and reworked from scratch.

AGoT-ACoK-ASoS were originally planned to be one novel and were pretty much written as one, with him breaking off whenever the MS became too big. They're more like one super-large novel executed over the better part of nine years. Averaging things out, the writing speed on ACoK and ASoS was more like three years each; he had a huge amount of ACoK finished before AGoT even came out, and a lot of ASoS done when ACoK came out. He also had something of an outline he was following at that point, which got chucked out when the five-year-gap plan collapsed.

I know this was a (tiresome, old) joke, but Sanderson has specifically ruled himself out from ever doing this.

True, but those side projects were also completed and done quite some time ago. They're why relatively little got done in 2011-12 (that 'lost year' of 2012 when the focus was on other things will I think be regretted the most). Now there isn't anything on the horizon, nor has there been for a good year or so. This is why the current lack of news is frustrating, as GRRM has had a large chunk of time to get a large chunk of the book done, but outside of some general positivity (he's working well, he's not having to do anywhere near as much rewriting and so on) there are no specifics.

If I recall correctly George only finished the World Book as of this March. Old Venous was completed in 2013, along with Low Ball and Rogues.

The map book, Old Mars and TPaTQ were completed in 2012.

[Werthead]

This is AFAIK incorrect. Whenever GRRM submits a "partial", it includes everything he had submitted previously. See his discussion about this in "Talking about the Dance" in his May 19, 2011 Not-A-Blog.

There was no new total of 350 pages. 168 pages WAS the new total. And it does not even include a certain Tyrion chapter that he had been reading at conventions.

Anything more than this is, at best, unconfirmed.

The 168 pages was what he submitted in February 2013. This was combined with the pages he had leftover from ADWD to make up roughly 350-380 MS pages in total. This equals approximately one quarter of the novel. In April 2013 GRRM said he had about one-quarter of the novel finished. If he'd only submitted 160 in total, that's closer to one-tenth of the total novel. Not even GRRM's occasionally elastic approximations would stretch to calling that a quarter of the book.

You are confusing the "total page count completed" count, which is what GRRM traditionally uses, with the "pages specifically received on this one occasion" which Anne was referring to. Anne very rarely provides updates of this kind and was using a different metric. The pages leftover from ADWD were actually written, edited and ready to go in ADWD. They were only removed due to space reasons. Based on what GRRM's been saying, it doesn't sound like there has been any need (so far) to rewrite or revisit them.

If I recall correctly George only finished the World Book as of this March

GRRM, Ran and Linda delivered the final spit and polish to the book in March and the final edits, whilst that was around the time the final artwork was received. The bulk of the book was done as of last summer. I believe that was supposed to be the final delivery, but the book was held up waiting for some art so they were able to add some additional material and do some more rewrites. The bulk of GRRM's writing on TWoIaF, the 250,000-odd words of material that also produced the two short stories and lots of material for Fire and Blood (the GRRMarillion, which is now not being pursued any further until post-ASoIaF), was done in 2012-13 from the look of it.

[ChillyPolly]

The 168 pages was what he submitted in February 2013. This was combined with the pages he had leftover from ADWD to make up roughly 350-380 MS pages in total. This equals approximately one quarter of the novel. In April 2013 GRRM said he had about one-quarter of the novel finished. If he'd only submitted 160 in total, that's closer to one-tenth of the total novel. Not even GRRM's occasionally elastic approximations would stretch to calling that a quarter of the book.

You are confusing the "total page count completed" count, which is what GRRM traditionally uses, with the "pages specifically received on this one occasion" which Anne was referring to. Anne very rarely provides updates of this kind and was using a different metric.

I'm not confusing anything. I am counting as "confirmed" only that which is "confirmed". If the discussion is only about what has been confirmed, than I will not resolve all conceivable ambiguities in favor of "wishful thinking".

Yes. 168 pages was what was submitted in February, 2013. History shows that when he submits a "partial" it includes everything so far. In this case, I believe it included the 100 pages he previously spoke of as submitted (5 chapters submitted in Summer, 2010, at later referred to in interviews fall of 2011), plus 68 additional pages. Notably (per Anne), it did not include one of the Tyrion chapters that have been read at conventions. So how far along could this material be if it does not include Tyrion2?

Could I be wrong in this conclusion? Possibly. But if you want to speak of what has been CONFIRMED, then that's what I'm going with.

In April 2013 GRRM said he had about one-quarter of the novel finished. If he'd only submitted 160 in total, that's closer to one-tenth of the total novel.

You are giving far too much weight to a deer-in-the-headlights response given during a surprise ambush by an attractive reporter. GRRM was as non-committal as he could possibly be emphasizing that he had not counted but it was MAYBE 25% done. Your conclusion is that "25%" done means 25% of 1500 pages; and then go even further to conclude that amount of pages in the resulting calculation (375) ONLY includes completed submitted pages. Hence, you concluded that "25% done" really means "more than 25% done".

And, of course, we all know that the resulting book might not be as long as 1,500 pages. That's merely the maximum. It might be only 1,000 pages. Perhaps even less for all I know. Taking your estimate of 375 pages that are "fully done", add another possible 300 unsubmitted pages that are "half done" (375 + (0.5 x 300) = 525), and accept the possibility that the book could end up being as short as 1,000 pages, then if I applied my own logic to your conclusions, I could easily speculate he was MAYBE more than 50% done at the time.

But he did not say he was maybe more than 50% done. He said he was maybe 25% done. That fits with what we know. 168 pages submitted, 200 pages in a "more or less finished state" (including the 168), and another 200 pages that will need alot of revision. Counting 200 pages as done and the other 200 pages as half done gets us to 300 pages, which is 33% of 1000 pages, 25% of 1200 pages and 20% of 1500 pages. So he is somewhere between 20% and 33% done, depending on the length of the finished book, which he rendered as "maybe 25%".

The pages leftover from ADWD were actually written, edited and ready to go in ADWD. They were only removed due to space reasons. Based on what GRRM's been saying, it doesn't sound like there has been any need (so far) to rewrite or revisit them.

5 chapters consisting of more than a hundred pages were submitted in 2010. Another few chapters, apparently consisting of 90-100 or so pages, were evidently written during his final push, but evidently ended up not being submitted or entirely finished. He polished up and submitted some (but not all) of these in February 2013, arriving at a new total of 168 pages.

[sifth]

The 168 pages was what he submitted in February 2013. This was combined with the pages he had leftover from ADWD to make up roughly 350-380 MS pages in total. This equals approximately one quarter of the novel. In April 2013 GRRM said he had about one-quarter of the novel finished. If he'd only submitted 160 in total, that's closer to one-tenth of the total novel. Not even GRRM's occasionally elastic approximations would stretch to calling that a quarter of the book.

You are confusing the "total page count completed" count, which is what GRRM traditionally uses, with the "pages specifically received on this one occasion" which Anne was referring to. Anne very rarely provides updates of this kind and was using a different metric. The pages leftover from ADWD were actually written, edited and ready to go in ADWD. They were only removed due to space reasons. Based on what GRRM's been saying, it doesn't sound like there has been any need (so far) to rewrite or revisit them.

GRRM, Ran and Linda delivered the final spit and polish to the book in March and the final edits, whilst that was around the time the final artwork was received. The bulk of the book was done as of last summer. I believe that was supposed to be the final delivery, but the book was held up waiting for some art so they were able to add some additional material and do some more rewrites. The bulk of GRRM's writing on TWoIaF, the 250,000-odd words of material that also produced the two short stories and lots of material for Fire and Blood (the GRRMarillion, which is now not being pursued any further until post-ASoIaF), was done in 2012-13 from the look of it.

George was still working on parts of the World Book in early 2014. He claimed to be writing something about the Iron Islands and on the day he finished this final section of the book, he stated The World Book as officially done.

http://grrm.livejournal.com/360175.html

Notice how he mentions the worlds "writing" when talking about the Iron Islands and not editing.

[mormont]

[mod] If we're down to bickering over old announcements, we have clearly run out of actual news to discuss. That being the case, thread closed. [/mod]

[Werthead]

Apologies to Mormont, who locked the thread just whilst I was finishing off. This information seemed pertinent.

I'm not confusing anything. I am counting as "confirmed" only that which is "confirmed". If the discussion is only about what has been confirmed, than I will not resolve all conceivable ambiguities in favor of "wishful thinking".

Nope. You are bending over backwards to try to cast GRRM's writing progress in as negative a light as possible. However, this is unnecessary as GRRM could very well report tomorrow that he has completed 0 MS pages since February 2013 and we'll be lucky to see the novel before the end of the decade and no such negative spin would be necessary.

Yes. 168 pages was what was submitted in February, 2013. History shows that when he submits a "partial" it includes everything so far. In this case, I believe it included the 100 pages he previously spoke of as submitted (5 chapters submitted in Summer, 2010, at later referred to in interviews fall of 2011), plus 68 additional pages. Notably (per Anne), it did not include one of the Tyrion chapters that have been read at conventions. So how far along could this material be if it does not include Tyrion2?

It's never been to my knowledge 100% confirmed what was held back from ADWD, especially since what was held back during the final edit and what GRRM already decided to hold back much earlier in the writing process have been discussed as separate factors. The page count of the material held back from ADWD has also varied, possibly for the same reason and also due to a conflation of chapters already 100% finished for ADWD and moved back, and partials and drafts initially held back and then completed during the early writing of TWoW.

We know that chapters from Aeron, Sansa, Arya, Barristan, Tyrion, Theon, Victarion and Arianne (two) were meant to go into ADWD and have been held back for TWoW. The page count of this material may be as high as 160 (since the average MS page-count-per-chapter in ADWD was 20) although the battle chapters do seem to be much shorter, so it could be closer to the estimated 100-150. So we're already looking at material held back from ADWD almost equalling or indeed exceeding the 168 figure before 2011 was even over. This immediately makes your assertion that the 168 MS page count includes 'everything' up to 2013 highly improbable. Whilst GRRM's progress on TWoW in May 2011-Spring 2013 seems to have been limited, it is unlikely it would be as low as maybe just a couple of dozen completed pages.

There is also an additional problem, in that GRRM submitted that material as part of ADWD. It was bought and paid for by Bantam as part of ADWD itself. Legally, resubmitting it as part of TWoW is problematic. Remember that Groell asserted that the 168 pages were submitted to fulfil a contractual obligation and release the next stage of his advance for TWoW. Based on my knowledge of the book trade, that would have to be new material for TWoW, not re-submitted material from a previous novel. It is possible they bent the rules somewhat, but it is not likely.

We know that GRRM has written further Tyrion chapters since the 168 was handed in and has also been working on the prologue. I am sure we are familiar with GRRM's writing operandi that he works on single POVs for long stretches. Clearly he has only gotten into writing additional Tyrion chapters recently.

You are giving far too much weight to a deer-in-the-headlights response given during a surprise ambush by an attractive reporter.

Nope. You are giving too little credence to the last word on the subject from the author in favour of plucking figures out of thin air.

We know GRRM always counts the finished and edited chapters as done and nothing else. So his assertion that a quarter of the novel is done and your assertion that he only had 168 pages locked is simply incompatible. I agree it was an off-the-cuff remark and there is probably a wide latitude either way (maybe even as low as 300-320 pages done), but clearly he was not saying that only one-tenth of the book was done.

GRRM has also made multiple claims that TWoW and ADoS will be 1500 pages long each in manuscript, as he believes he will need every possible page to wrap the story up. I'd actually agree if it was ADoS (or the last confirmed novel in the series) that it could be less than 1500 pages, either on the basis that the novel doesn't need that length or it will get too long and need to be split in two and the individual volumes will be shorter, but for TWoW George seems pretty adamant it needs the full 1500, and all his assertions are proceeding on that basis. When the book is done the final edit applied, they may indeed conclude that it needs to be shorter, but that is not the case at this time.