A Simpler Varys Theory

[Fisch]

I'm rather new to all the theories swirling around ASoIaF, and I'm sure I haven't read all of them. Of those I've read, some seem plausible, others unlikely and overly convoluted, even for GRRM.

When it comes to Varys, I've read a few - that he's a Blackfyre, that he's a Faceless Man, that he and Illyrio are using each other but each have their own master plans, etc. I'm skipping over Varys' true identity here, but on the matter of his and Illyrio's plans, some of the theories I've read seem way too complicated. Re-reading the relevant Arya chapter from AGoT, I got a theory of my own going, one I think simpler and more plausible than some of the more complex ones. Key to it is assuming that everything Arya heard them discussing was honest, that Varys was sincere when he claimed he wanted to keep Robert alive, and that he's sincere about supporting Aegon.

(If others have hit on the theory I'm about to detail, please let me know - as I said, I haven't read all the theory threads here.)

Their plan was:

1. Sit and wait until the Dothraki were ready to invade, Aegon was of age, and the Golden Company free.

2. Once the Dothraki were ready, destabilize Westeros somehow.

3. Facilitate the Dothraki invasion and let them go to town on the country.

4. Bring in Aegon with the Golden Company to drive out the Dothraki. Aegon would be welcomed as a hero and crowned, and if Dany and Viserys were still alive, they could be used to build a Trinity of Targaryens as of old, or discarded if they were troublesome.

Under this theory, Illyrio is upset about civil war coming too soon to Westeros because Aegon is too young, the Golden Company has contracts, and the Dothraki aren't ready. Varys is desperate to keep Robert alive because, for all his faults as a king, he held the realm together. Once the Dothraki and Aegon were both ready, Robert could be killed, or the truth about "his" children could come out, or some incident could be arranged, but it's crucial to Varys/Illyrio's plans that this not happen too soon. Civil war too soon could also boost the odds of someone competent taking the Iron Throne and ordering the realm in such a way as to deny any path for a Targaryen restoration.

Also under this theory - all of the movements made by Varys and Illyrio from ACoK on are improvisations, not always smart ones, to try and salvage something of their original plan out of less-than-ideal circumstances.

[Archmaester Drew]

I'm rather new to all the theories swirling around ASoIaF, and I'm sure I haven't read all of them. Of those I've read, some seem plausible, others unlikely and overly convoluted, even for GRRM.

When it comes to Varys, I've read a few - that he's a Blackfyre, that he's a Faceless Man, that he and Illyrio are using each other but each have their own master plans, etc. I'm skipping over Varys' true identity here, but on the matter of his and Illyrio's plans, some of the theories I've read seem way too complicated. Re-reading the relevant Arya chapter from AGoT, I got a theory of my own going, one I think simpler and more plausible than some of the more complex ones. Key to it is assuming that everything Arya heard them discussing was honest, that Varys was sincere when he claimed he wanted to keep Robert alive, and that he's sincere about supporting Aegon.

(If others have hit on the theory I'm about to detail, please let me know - as I said, I haven't read all the theory threads here.)

Their plan was:

1. Sit and wait until the Dothraki were ready to invade, Aegon was of age, and the Golden Company free.

2. Once the Dothraki were ready, destabilize Westeros somehow.

3. Facilitate the Dothraki invasion and let them go to town on the country.

4. Bring in Aegon with the Golden Company to drive out the Dothraki. Aegon would be welcomed as a hero and crowned, and if Dany and Viserys were still alive, they could be used to build a Trinity of Targaryens as of old, or discarded if they were troublesome.

Under this theory, Illyrio is upset about civil war coming too soon to Westeros because Aegon is too young, the Golden Company has contracts, and the Dothraki aren't ready. Varys is desperate to keep Robert alive because, for all his faults as a king, he held the realm together. Once the Dothraki and Aegon were both ready, Robert could be killed, or the truth about "his" children could come out, or some incident could be arranged, but it's crucial to Varys/Illyrio's plans that this not happen too soon. Civil war too soon could also boost the odds of someone competent taking the Iron Throne and ordering the realm in such a way as to deny any path for a Targaryen restoration.

Also under this theory - all of the movements made by Varys and Illyrio from ACoK on are improvisations, not always smart ones, to try and salvage something of their original plan out of less-than-ideal circumstances.

Welcome to the forum! :cheers:

This seems reasonable to me. :)

[Lopsang]

Yeah, something that interests me is how Illyrio and Varys were planning to bring Aegon into the pictures. One thing I've always wondered is why Illyrio didn't show Dany and Viserys Aegon when he had the chance, or even told them about his existence. Perhaps they raised Aegon to be under their influence and ultimately dispose of Dany and Viserys once their ends were met.

[Fanless Mace]

(F)Aegon is/was always an ace in the hole. Now that Viserys is dead and Dany has an ego, that ace is needed. Any route to Targ rule will do.

[Justin Amey]

I'm rather new to all the theories swirling around ASoIaF, and I'm sure I haven't read all of them. Of those I've read, some seem plausible, others unlikely and overly convoluted, even for GRRM.

When it comes to Varys, I've read a few - that he's a Blackfyre, that he's a Faceless Man, that he and Illyrio are using each other but each have their own master plans, etc. I'm skipping over Varys' true identity here, but on the matter of his and Illyrio's plans, some of the theories I've read seem way too complicated. Re-reading the relevant Arya chapter from AGoT, I got a theory of my own going, one I think simpler and more plausible than some of the more complex ones. Key to it is assuming that everything Arya heard them discussing was honest, that Varys was sincere when he claimed he wanted to keep Robert alive, and that he's sincere about supporting Aegon.

(If others have hit on the theory I'm about to detail, please let me know - as I said, I haven't read all the theory threads here.)

Their plan was:

1. Sit and wait until the Dothraki were ready to invade, Aegon was of age, and the Golden Company free.

2. Once the Dothraki were ready, destabilize Westeros somehow.

3. Facilitate the Dothraki invasion and let them go to town on the country.

4. Bring in Aegon with the Golden Company to drive out the Dothraki. Aegon would be welcomed as a hero and crowned, and if Dany and Viserys were still alive, they could be used to build a Trinity of Targaryens as of old, or discarded if they were troublesome.

Under this theory, Illyrio is upset about civil war coming too soon to Westeros because Aegon is too young, the Golden Company has contracts, and the Dothraki aren't ready. Varys is desperate to keep Robert alive because, for all his faults as a king, he held the realm together. Once the Dothraki and Aegon were both ready, Robert could be killed, or the truth about "his" children could come out, or some incident could be arranged, but it's crucial to Varys/Illyrio's plans that this not happen too soon. Civil war too soon could also boost the odds of someone competent taking the Iron Throne and ordering the realm in such a way as to deny any path for a Targaryen restoration.

Also under this theory - all of the movements made by Varys and Illyrio from ACoK on are improvisations, not always smart ones, to try and salvage something of their original plan out of less-than-ideal circumstances.

:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: Finally this what i have been waiting for. This is what I've been believing for years, everybody is convinced that Aegon is everything and anything but the real deal, and that such a theory is so simple it's ludicrous. Thank you saying this, I F**ks with you :agree:

Yeah, something that interests me is how Illyrio and Varys were planning to bring Aegon into the pictures. One thing I've always wondered is why Illyrio didn't show Dany and Viserys Aegon when he had the chance, or even told them about his existence. Perhaps they raised Aegon to be under their influence and ultimately dispose of Dany and Viserys once their ends were met.

Jorah Mormont: as soon as he found out Aegon, being word of mouth, seeing him face to face, he would tell the king, and he would flip his lid, and questions would rise, how did he survive? Question like that would eventually point to Varys and his head might be put on a spike. Better to have Everyone to believe him dead so he can train in peace. I mean look at how bitter Viserys ended up after being hunted for over a decade.

[Lopsang]

:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: Finally this what i have been waiting for. This is what I've been believing for years, everybody is convinced that Aegon is everything and anything but the real deal, and that such a theory is so simple it's ludicrous. Thank you saying this, I F**ks with you :agree:

Jorah Mormont: as soon as he found out Aegon, being word of mouth, seeing him face to face, he would tell the king, and he would flip his lid, and questions would rise, how did he survive? Question like that would eventually point to Varys and his head might be put on a spike. Better to have Everyone to believe him dead so he can train in peace. I mean look at how bitter Viserys ended up after being hunted for over a decade.

Yep. Aegon is real, I have no doubt. It doesn't make sense for GRRM to have revealed Aegon as true, and then suddenly renege on it for no reason. What's the point? Glad some other people have sense enough to see that. (I also don't think R+L=J. People are just saying this stuff to kill time, I swear).

About not revealing him to Dany and Viserys; Yeah, I can see that. Viserys and Dany, but especially Viserys, would be too unreliable with said information. I could see it getting to Mormont.

AHA! I AM A SQUIRE NOW! 160 POSTS! WHOO! BOW DOWN BEFORE ME YE OLDE FOOLS!

[Chebyshov]

I have no real problem with this idea, though I'd argue Varys is a far cry from a straight-Targ supporter (destabilizing Aerys's, and by extension Rhaegar's reign). However, there's a few questions:

• Why were Varys and Illyrio okay to let Dany and Viserys wander around with the Dothraki hoard? Safety definitely not guaranteed
  
• Why were they okay marrying Dany off to Drogo, when it seems now that the plan was always for Aegon to marry her (to assert his validity)
  
• Why give Dany the eggs if Aegon is the main prize?
  
• Why does their plan hinge on a Dothraki invasion of Westeros, when the Dothraki are known for not crossing the sea?
  

[Justin Amey]

I have no real problem with this idea, though I'd argue Varys is a far cry from a straight-Targ supporter (destabilizing Aerys's, and by extension Rhaegar's reign). However, there's a few questions:

• Why were Varys and Illyrio okay to let Dany and Viserys wander around with the Dothraki hoard? Safety definitely not guaranteed

Why were they okay marrying Dany off to Drogo, when it seems now that the plan was always for Aegon to marry her (to assert his validity)

Why give Dany the eggs if Aegon is the main prize?

Why does their plan hinge on a Dothraki invasion of Westeros, when the Dothraki are known for not crossing the sea?

• Illyrio wasn't not happy with all the plans, they had to accelerate due to Ned Stark coming to KL, Also he tried to convince Viserys to stay with him in pentos but he didn't listen.

As much as they didn't the idea of marrying Dany off, they need an army, a strong army

They were petrified eggs. Nobody thought they would work, If that was the case, they would have need the Dortharki.

Nobody Essos like the Dorthraki, getting rid of them and making them westeros Ploblem would have been the best day ever.

Hope that helps!

[Chebyshov]

• Illyrio wasn't not happy with all the plans, they had to accelerate due to Ned Stark coming to KL, Also he tried to convince Viserys to stay with him in pentos but he didn't listen.
• As much as they didn't the idea of marrying Dany off, they need an army, a strong army
• They were petrified eggs. Nobody thought they would work, If that was the case, they would have need the Dortharki.
• Nobody Essos like the Dorthraki, getting rid of them and making them westeros Ploblem would have been the best day ever.

Hope that helps!

• plausible
• they had the GC
• they're still incredibly valuable
• the Dothraki are the ones who wouldn't leave Essos...they fear the Narrow Sea.

I'm not saying this is wrong btw; there's just a lot of questions it raises, and I can't think of satisfactory answers. It's why I've been so puzzled by Varys myself.

[Justin Amey]

• plausible
• they had the GC
• they're still incredibly valuable
• the Dothraki are the ones who wouldn't leave Essos...they fear the Narrow Sea.

I'm not saying this is wrong btw; there's just a lot of questions it raises, and I can't think of satisfactory answers. It's why I've been so puzzled by Varys myself.

• more plasible that Varys, or Aegon being blackfyres.
• GC had 10k men, Dorhraki had 100k,
• Shiny eggs appeal to women than men, especally women that gives you a boner.
• That is why they sent a fake assassin ploy to convince them otherwise.

[Chebyshov]

• more plasible that Varys, or Aegon being blackfyres.
• GC had 10k men, Dorhraki had 100k,
• Shiny eggs appeal to women than men, especally women that gives you a boner.
• That is why they sent a fake assassin ploy to convince them otherwise.

Aaand, I'm done here. I don't disagree it's more plausible than the BF stuff, but this raises serious questions, hopefully to which we'll get the answers in TWOW. But I'm not going to engage in misogynistic defenses. Even if meant hyperbolically, it's not useful to the discussion or humorous.

[Born264AL]

GRRM to have revealed Aegon as true,

:blink: :wacko: :lmao:

[Lopsang]

:blink: :wacko: :lmao:

Huh? Are you saying it wasn't ever revealed that Aegon was still around?

[yeye]

I have no real problem with this idea, though I'd argue Varys is a far cry from a straight-Targ supporter (destabilizing Aerys's, and by extension Rhaegar's reign). However, there's a few questions:

• Why were Varys and Illyrio okay to let Dany and Viserys wander around with the Dothraki hoard? Safety definitely not guaranteed
• Why were they okay marrying Dany off to Drogo, when it seems now that the plan was always for Aegon to marry her (to assert his validity)
• Why give Dany the eggs if Aegon is the main prize?
• Why does their plan hinge on a Dothraki invasion of Westeros, when the Dothraki are known for not crossing the sea?

They only want to marry aegon to dany because daenarys has dragons. I don't think it was previously part of the plan

[Veltigar]

:blink: :wacko: :lmao:

:lol: I know right

Huh? Are you saying it wasn't ever revealed that Aegon was still around?

You see GRRM himself has never revealed that Aegon is still around. ASOIAF doesn't use an omniscient narrator (in which case, anything the omniscient narrator says is true for that world), instead it uses a PoV structure. We're in the heads of the character and we get their view on stuff. The thing is, the characters aren't always right. And thus the reveal that "Aegon" is still alive isn't necessarily correct.

When you take all the other clues and oddities spread throughout the ASOIAF universe into account it is quite obvious that Faegon is more than likely a fake, who has something to do with the Blackfyres. That much is for sure (or as sure as you can be without an omniscient narrator spelling it out for us).

[Nozlym]

not bad

[Good Guy Garlan]

Well, it sounds plausible enough, except for this part:

4. Bring in Aegon with the Golden Company to drive out the Dothraki. Aegon would be welcomed as a hero and crowned, and if Dany and Viserys were still alive, they could be used to build a Trinity of Targaryens as of old, or discarded if they were troublesome.

First, you'd have 2 different factions of Targs actually fighting each other. People in the 7K would see Viserys and Dany as the Targs who unleashed an army of uncivilized barbarians on their country, and there's no PR enough to erase that. Aegon would have to fight the Dothraki, and by extension Viserys (he could marry Dany to unite both factions, but Vis has to go, so there's no Targ Trinity on the table)

However, if Trystan Rivers told it true, then the original plan actually was the Trinity of Targs, since Visery's Dothraki were supposed to join the Golden Company:

"Which plan? ... The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back."

And this opens a whole different can of worms, because where do you factor Aegon in the plan Rivers mentioned? Would he be one of the crazy Targs that showed up with horse-smelling savages, or would he be the savior meant to defeat said savages?

[Dr. Pepper]

I mean look at how bitter Viserys ended up after being hunted for over a decade.

Viserys wasn't actually hunted. This is just something Viserys said. They were obviously monitored, but that isn't hard to do when the exile Targaryens show up at every high ranking official's mansion in all the Free Cities. They were the equivalent of Jalabhar Xho, the exile prince from the Summer Islands.

[Lopsang]

Viserys wasn't actually hunted. This is just something Viserys said. They were obviously monitored, but that isn't hard to do when the exile Targaryens show up at every high ranking official's mansion in all the Free Cities. They were the equivalent of Jalabhar Xho, the exile prince from the Summer Islands.

No... Remember when that guy tried to poison Dany with Arbor Gold? Or Robert promising lordship and land to anyone who found/killed the Targaryens? Or Dany recalling her flight from Westeros and Viserys and her avoiding assassins at every turn? They were hunted, yeah...

[Dr. Pepper]

No... Remember when that guy tried to poison Dany with Arbor Gold? Or Robert promising lordship and land to anyone who found/killed the Targaryens? Or Dany recalling her flight from Westeros and Viserys and her avoiding assassins at every turn? They were hunted, yeah...

No...Remember how none of that happened until Dany got married, and the assassin was specifically for Dany, not for Viserys? Also, remember how Dany says she never saw these hired knives and remember also how it's specifically noted that Robert had wanted to make sure they were killed but that Jon Arryn put a stop to that? They weren't hunted, yeah.... They moved a lot. If they were truly hunted, they would have been dead. Their location was never secret. A flight from Westeros isn't the same as being hunted for over a decade. They lived in exile and during that exile, they were hosted by the elite of the Free Cities.