Where will the Iron Born Strike next?

[TallTyrion]

So I've been trying to figure out the next step of Euron's plan in the Reach and am really not sure what HIs next move will be.

The Iron Born have taken the Shield Islands and Large parts of the Arbor capitalizing on the absence of the Redwyne fleet. This puts them in a position to either sail up the Mander and attack Highgarden or to attack Old Town via the Whispering Sound.

It's hard to imagine they would have the force needed to take both. So I'm wondering which is the better option. I can't recall any mention of what kind of defences Highgarden has and there's only brief discussion of Oldtown beefing up their security.

Some options they have:

Option 1) Attack Highgarden thereby taking the main castle of the Reach.

Option 2) Sack Oldtown probably getting a lot of wealth and a large victory over the Tyrell's most powerful banner men.

Both of these options are highly risky. Do they have the strength to pull off either?

Option 3) Land at the mouth of the Mander and march to Brightwater Keep.

Garlan Tyrell took a force there to press his claim. The army Garlan has is the only real opposition to the Iron Born in the Reach outside of Oldtown. Should the Iron Born be victorious there Euron could then take Honeyholt and the other Towns surrounding Oldtown cutting the Hightowers off from any support and setting up a future attack on Oldtown.

Option 4) Conduct minor raids on the smaller Reach settlements and await the Redwyne fleets counterattack.

Euron must know that the Fleet will return to retake the Arbor. If he can defeat them at sea he becomes the uncontested Naval power for the entire West Coast of the Continent. Euron could then wait for Victarion to return with Danny.

So what do you think the Iron Born will do next? And what options am I missing here?

[aryagonnakill#2]

The Redwyn fleet sailed threw the stepstones before Aegon and the Golden company did, they should be sailing along the southern coast of Dorne and not too far from the Arbor. I have to imagine destroying the Redwyn fleet is the first priority. With the Fleet destroyed the Arbor is theirs and any attempt to reclaim the shield islands without the Redwyns will probably prove disastrous.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Without the Iron Fleet, I don't think the Ironborn stand much chance against the Redwyne fleet. If they were smart, they'd conduct raids and bug out.

[Leonardo]

Without the Iron Fleet, I don't think the Ironborn stand much chance against the Redwyne fleet. If they were smart, they'd conduct raids and bug out.

This

All they have are long ships, which are fodder for true warships.

They aren't staying, they're taking all the loot and running to raid somewhere else while Danny arrives, probably the westerlands.

OR

My personal idea is that they sail around the redwyne fleet on the way back by going out of sight of land, then they assault king's landing now that the tyrell forces have all been drawn to the reach and are rooting out the last of the iron born. The iron born sack king's landing and Euron takes his seat on the iron throne, with open arms for Danny, who probably won't take the offer, and rightly so.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

Euron's position is quite precarious. His best fleet is very far away, and the Redwyne fleet is coming.

Assuming that the Redwyne fleet does arrive safely and is not affected by plot weather, Euron would be a fool to face it near the Arbor or in the Whispering Sound. The fleet knows the seas around the Arbor and the Whispering Sound, and the Ironborn do not.

Euron must face the Redwynes eventually. His prestige will be severely diminished if he is chased around the Reach by green landers, and he cannot get the riches he promised the Ironborn with the Redwyne fleet following him.

If I were Euron, I would do the same trick I played before. Send a hundred ships or so up the Mander, then retreat west. The Redwynes will go up the Mander after retaking the Arbor and the Shields (note that Euron intentionally did not leave any of the men most loyal to him on the Shields, meaning that he intends to abandon it) Swoop back down, and conquer the Shields again, and take the mouth of the Mander. The Redwyne fleet will come down the Mander and find the mouth blocked by ships and chains. The Ironborn might win with the advantage of the chain. Then ravage the Reach, and sail up the Whispering Sound and the Mander. Destroy the Hightower fleet, and block the trade into Oldtown. The longboats on the Mander should cross land, then sail onto the Honeywine. Starve Oldtown until Leyton Hightower surrenders.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Euron's position is quite precarious. His best fleet is very far away, and the Redwyne fleet is coming.

Assuming that the Redwyne fleet does arrive safely and is not affected by plot weather, Euron would be a fool to face it near the Arbor or in the Whispering Sound. The fleet knows the seas around the Arbor and the Whispering Sound, and the Ironborn do not.

Euron must face the Redwynes eventually. His prestige will be severely diminished if he is chased around the Reach by green landers, and he cannot get the riches he promised the Ironborn with the Redwyne fleet following him.

If I were Euron, I would do the same trick I played before. Send a hundred ships or so up the Mander, then retreat west. The Redwynes will go up the Mander after retaking the Arbor and the Shields (note that Euron intentionally did not leave any of the men most loyal to him on the Shields, meaning that he intends to abandon it) Swoop back down, and conquer the Shields again, and take the mouth of the Mander. The Redwyne fleet will come down the Mander and find the mouth blocked by ships and chains. The Ironborn might win with the advantage of the chain. Then ravage the Reach, and sail up the Whispering Sound and the Mander. Destroy the Hightower fleet, and block the trade into Oldtown. The longboats on the Mander should cross land, then sail onto the Honeywine. Starve Oldtown until Leyton Hightower surrenders.

Paxter Redwyne isn't going to fall for that trap, especially since it worked against Imry Florent. They are longships. He only needs to send a fraction of his fleet to take them out.

The remainder would stay out of the Mander. He'd send some to the Arbor to defend against IB raids and he'd definitely leave part of his command at the shield islands.

[Pod The Impaler]

Option 2) Sack Oldtown probably getting a lot of wealth and a large victory over the Tyrell's most powerful banner men.

Option 3) Land at the mouth of the Mander and march to Brightwater Keep.

Garlan Tyrell took a force there to press his claim. The army Garlan has is the only real opposition to the Iron Born in the Reach outside of Oldtown. Should the Iron Born be victorious there Euron could then take Honeyholt and the other Towns surrounding Oldtown cutting the Hightowers off from any support and setting up a future attack on Oldtown.

I have a feeling that Oldtown is his objective. However, Euron does not strike me as a fool - is Oldtown not a well-protected city ? Does he not know of the forces available to the Tyrells?

It may be wiser to first shatter any hoped-for defenses first - the Tyrell forces on land, and the incoming Redwyne fleet at sea - rather than besiege Oldtown and get caught between the proverbial hammer and anvil.

[TallTyrion]

I have a feeling that Oldtown is his objective. However, Euron does not strike me as a fool - is Oldtown not a well-protected city ? Does he not know of the forces available to the Tyrells?

It may be wiser to first shatter any hoped-for defenses first - the Tyrell forces on land, and the incoming Redwyne fleet at sea - rather than besiege Oldtown and get caught between the proverbial hammer and anvil.

I got that feeling too. The people of Oldtown also believe the attack is coming so that counts for something.

However, being one of the largest and oldest cities in the Kingdom it must be well defended. More so than Highgarden though?

[Stannis's Lawyer]

Paxter Redwyne isn't going to fall for that trap, especially since it worked against Imry Florent. They are longships. He only needs to send a fraction of his fleet to take them out.

The remainder would stay out of the Mander. He'd send some to the Arbor to defend against IB raids and he'd definitely leave part of his command at the shield islands.

1. Paxter Redwyne is a very cautious commander. I don't think he'd dare risk an Ironborn attack on Highgarden.

2. Longships can take care of Paxter's smaller warships. And there are at least about 20,000 Iromborn left.

[Leonardo]

The iron born don't use siege weapons or cavalry. They have absolutely no chance of taking any of the major targets in the reach

They're leaving, that much is clear, the question is where they go

[Stannis's Lawyer]

However, being one of the largest and oldest cities in the Kingdom it must be well defended. More so than Highgarden though?

However, taking Highgarden isn't really a good idea strategically. The Reach lords on the shore could close the Mander, then Euron is fucked.

[aryagonnakill#2]

While the military might of the Reach does in fact dwarf that of the Ironborn, dismissing Euron seems crazy. Moqorro says he is Danys most dangerous enemy and some think 1 of Danys visions in the house of the undying was him. Just because we don't see what GRRM's angle is, doesn't mean its not there.

[SeanF]

It's very hard to understand Euron's plan. He's sent the better half of his fleet 6,000 miles away. His men can hit and run along the coast of the Reach, but what can they conquer?

Unless Euron has mighty sorcery at his command.

Still, the Slavers outside Meereen are about to experience the Fury of the Northmen.

[TallTyrion]

Interesting that a lot of people think they will abandon the Reach. I had considered that the Reach attack may just be a diversion but Couldn't come up with the next step if that were the case. Raid the gold rich Westerlands? Swing wide around the southern coast and attack Kings Landing?

It's been said that the Iron Born have no siege equipment. Is that accurate? How did Balon plan to take Seaguard during his first rebellion with out Siege tactics?

[aryagonnakill#2]

If the longships can be disassembled and carried overland from the Mander to the Honeywine then they can be disassembled and turned into siege equipment.

[Maid So Fair]

Isn't siege equipment usually made on the spot? Stannis thinks about using the wood from the Wolfswood to build siege engines to assault Winterfell/Dreadfort and Dany uses wood from her ships. But I don't think it would help them much as siege tactics are a suicide for the Ironborn - investing a castle or even a major town by a siege could take months while their enemies, who are pretty much ALL stronger than them assault them from the rear. The only hope the IB have of capturing any significant target is treachery/magic, which might be where Euron steps in with his warlocks.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

Remember that Dagmer took Torrhen's Square. Since Leobald Tallhart is called a very cautious and easily scared man, I doubt that Dagmer took it à la Theon taking Winterfell. They would have besieged the castle. TS isn't as strong as Oldtown, but it's proof that they have siege equipment.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1. Paxter Redwyne is a very cautious commander. I don't think he'd dare risk an Ironborn attack on Highgarden.

2. Longships can take care of Paxter's smaller warships. And there are at least about 20,000 Iromborn left.

Highgarden is a castle. The Ironborn don't use siege weapons and the castle is actually well garrisoned.

Longships might be able to take care of some of them, but the Redwyne fleet is 200 ships that are at least as large as the Iron Fleet.

[aFeastForDragons]

In Sam's POV we find out that a Lyseni ship was captured and with it they planned to get into the city and start a fire so they could open the gates while everyone is distracted. Euron had to know of this plan and he would have had thousands of men waiting close to Oldtown ready to attack at a moments notice. It looks like he is spreading himself thin reaving up and down the Southern coast but I think he's trying to lure the Redwyne fleet to him. We know he has the Warlocks and used them to his advantage already.

If he sails to KL by the time he gets there Aegon could be sitting on the Throne with 20,000 sellswords and a Tyrell host allied with him so there is no way he'd do that unless he had a Dragon.

[Trigger Warning]

Brighton.