Lion Of The Night Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Something has always bugged me about Oberyn's actions while in KL. We know that he wanted revenge for the killing of his sister and her children at the hands of the mountain. However we also know that he would not be satisfied with just Ser Gregor. He wanted the man at the top, he wanted Tywin.Now it seems clear that durring the trial by combat he wanted Ser Gregor not just to confess his crimes, but also to name Tywin as the person who ordered it, in front of the whole court present. But if he got it, what was his plan?Oberyn is a smart guy. He poisoned his spear against Ser Gregor not just because he wanted him to suffer, but because even as cocky as he is, he had to think that he too could die in that fight, and if he did, the mountain would still suffer and die. He had to know that the act of coming to KL to get revenge could very well end in his death.So lets assume he survived the trial, and he did get public confirmation (or not) ov Tywin's involvment. What happens next? If he goes after him to kill him, he would be hunted down and killed. If he demanded Tywin to go back with him to face justice in Dorne, he would be stopped, and probably killed. If he poisoned him (or if the theory is true that he already did) he would be the first suspect, and would probably be killed. Even if all he got was that public confession and left to make further plans, Tywin or Cersei might still have him killed.My theory is that Oberyn planned on dying at KL. He knew that no matter the outcome, the chances of getting killed was high, and the death of Tywin was not enough, he wanted his legacy destroyed. If he was killed at the hands of the Lanisters or the Gold Cloaks or whatever, his death would inflame the people of Dorne, giving them the excuse and desire to go to war against them. His Sand Snakes would seek to revenge him (as the text shows now). His sacrifice would set the entire land back into war, and the Lanisters woukd bear the brunt of it.So, did Oberyn plan on sacrificing himself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TemtnF8 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 If he gets a public confession from Ser Gregor that Tywin ordered Elia's death then the crown would be honor-bound to put him on trial. You didn't happen to recently watch the "Dornish Master Plan" video series, did you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lion Of The Night Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 If he gets a public confession from Ser Gregor that Tywin ordered Elia's death then the crown would be honor-bound to put him on trial. You didn't happen to recently watch the "Dornish Master Plan" video series, did you?Except that the crown is controlled by Tywin. Im sure at the very least it would be a mock trial with him getting off and Oberyn forced to do something drastic to get revenge. More than likely however there would be no trial, discounti g the confession as the ravings of a dying man and we are back to the same thing.I haven't seen them, are they on YouTube? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyBanana Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 If Tywin is already as good as dead, The Mountain dead and has confessed and given up Tywin, why stick around? He can return to Sunspear with Tyrion and wait until Tywin dies. All he'd need to do is somehow make it plainly obvious he wanted to go for Tywin all along and use a poison that kills Tywin very slowly, so he can get away in time. I'm pretty sure he planned it like that. -> war is inevitable without sacrificing his life (not to mention that your Oberyn sacrifice plan didn't work, Dorne didn't go to war) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opinionn Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I'm pretty sure he would rather not die. The poison he used on tywin worked very slowly and he would've had plenty of time to escape kl. The lannisters wouldn't touch oberyn for fear of dorne... and he still died but did Doran do anything? (not outright but he's obviously been planning things for years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Tyrion I Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I don't agree. Oberyn was sloppy during the fight and far too cocky. Don't get me wrong, I like the character Oberyn Martell. He definitely wanted his revenge. And killing the man - the Mountain - who killed his family. That would have been Oberyn's sense of justice. There's no "if Oberyn had survived..." The trial was to prove whether Tyrion was guilty or not of killing Joffrey. Not for Tywin ordering the Mountain to kill Ellia and her kids. So, there are two different cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TemtnF8 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Except that the crown is controlled by Tywin. Im sure at the very least it would be a mock trial with him getting off and Oberyn forced to do something drastic to get revenge. More than likely however there would be no trial, discounti g the confession as the ravings of a dying man and we are back to the same thing.I haven't seen them, are they on YouTube?Yes. Just google "dornish master plan" or search youtube. If the accusation were made privately, sure, the crown would be able to get away with something.. Making the accusation publicly, with a confession from Gregor, changes things.. Granted the crown could STILL get away with not really doing anything about it, but at least that way when Oberyn kills Tywin it'll be justified, and the people would support him should he be tried for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balerion the one eared cat Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I agree with everything you said. I think he did always expect to die in KL, and that the reason they sent Oberyn specifically as representative of Dorne was because he could incite war more easily and more fiercely than any other member of House Martell - from his past with Willas Tyrell causing tension between Dorne and Highgarden (and by extension the crown, due to their families being wed - Oberyn's presence at that union is key), to being able to use words (and poison) to manipulate or form alliances accordingly, to being a fierce warrior when given the chance to fight.Perhaps the original plan was to take down Tywin (widow's blood poison theory seems pretty good to me - "Tywin Lannister may not live forever") and maybe even be accused himself as a master of poison. Then he could demand trial by combat (the Lannisters wouldn't have enough evidence to outright accuse him and execute him without trial), demand Ser Gregor as his opponent, and kill two birds with one stone, fairly literally - take down the power behind House Lannister and get revenge on Elia, or die in the attempt. It's possible... But I agree - Oberyn was sent to KL to spark a war between Dorne and The Iron Throne, just in time for Aegon, Dany and the dragons to come of age and side with Dorne. We all know how carefully Doran Martell plans these things... ETA: however, I don't think getting a confession that Tywin ordered the murder of Elia and the children would change much. I think it's pretty well known in Westeros who was behind all of that even if it isn't discussed openly, and Tywin and Ser Gregor most likely received a royal pardon for services to the crown or something like that: the atrocities of war are acceptable in war-time, and Robert would claim it needed to be done to secure his throne. If it were ever going to be an issue, Tywin and Gregor would have been tried as soon as the event happened, not fifteen years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyBanana Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I'm pretty sure he would rather not die. The poison he used on tywin worked very slowly and he would've had plenty of time to escape kl. The lannisters wouldn't touch oberyn for fear of dorne... and he still died but did Doran do anything? (not outright but he's obviously been planning things for years) That's why it doesn't make sense for Oberyn to sacrifice himself. He knows Doran. But if the Lannisters declare war, his brother would have no choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aryagonnakill#2 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 There are a couple possibilities when it comes to Oberyn. First is that he poisoned himself and Tywin, because there is no realistic way for Oberyn to have poisoned just Tywin. Tywin is no fool, he knows Oberyn hates him and he knows Oberyn is a master of poison, he didn't just take some already opened wine from him, but if Oberyn opened something, drank, and handed some to Tywin, he would probably feel safe. The second possibility is that he planned on killing Tywin in a much more obvious way, and still planned on demanding a trial by combat. The text tells us that a common hedge knight, who assaulted a Targ Prince in front of hundreds of people was still given a trial, and was still able to declare trial by combat, so a Prince of Dorne should get the same treatment. Then he would have planned on killing the Mountain, again using the thickened basilisk venom to ensure the outcome regardless of whether or not he lived. The second possibility was interceded when Joffrey was killed and Oberyn got the opportunity to fight the Mountain that he could not resist. Lets be real about something, if Oberyn won the fight the odds of the Mountain still being able to speak seems pretty low, and that's if Oberyn won, so the odds of him getting a confession at the end of a fight seems to be incredibly low. Obviously I prefer the 2nd theory, and 1 of the main reasons for this is because It is much more likely, if not the only possibility, that Varys poisoned Tywin with widows blood, not Oberyn. Varys controls the servers inside the red keep and even if he didn't he could slip into any room he wanted and do it himself. There is also the fact that Pycelle said that while he was in the dungeons the widows blood was stolen, but Oberyn didn't get the Kings landing until Pycelle had already been free'd. Killing Tywin also benefits Varys plans as we see at the end of Dance when he kills Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lion Of The Night Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 That's why it doesn't make sense for Oberyn to sacrifice himself. He knows Doran. But if the Lannisters declare war, his brother would have no choice.True, but killing Tywin would have caused the Lanisters and even thw crown to go to war, forcing Dorans hand.That said we still don't know what Doran had planned, but at the very least, the Sand Snakes and Darkstar were advocating war... Doran was able to stop it before it got too far, but if he didn't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lion Of The Night Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 There are a couple possibilities when it comes to Oberyn. First is that he poisoned himself and Tywin, because there is no realistic way for Oberyn to have poisoned just Tywin. Tywin is no fool, he knows Oberyn hates him and he knows Oberyn is a master of poison, he didn't just take some already opened wine from him, but if Oberyn opened something, drank, and handed some to Tywin, he would probably feel safe. The second possibility is that he planned on killing Tywin in a much more obvious way, and still planned on demanding a trial by combat. The text tells us that a common hedge knight, who assaulted a Targ Prince in front of hundreds of people was still given a trial, and was still able to declare trial by combat, so a Prince of Dorne should get the same treatment. Then he would have planned on killing the Mountain, again using the thickened basilisk venom to ensure the outcome regardless of whether or not he lived. The second possibility was interceded when Joffrey was killed and Oberyn got the opportunity to fight the Mountain that he could not resist. Lets be real about something, if Oberyn won the fight the odds of the Mountain still being able to speak seems pretty low, and that's if Oberyn won, so the odds of him getting a confession at the end of a fight seems to be incredibly low. Obviously I prefer the 2nd theory, and 1 of the main reasons for this is because It is much more likely, if not the only possibility, that Varys poisoned Tywin with widows blood, not Oberyn. Varys controls the servers inside the red keep and even if he didn't he could slip into any room he wanted and do it himself. There is also the fact that Pycelle said that while he was in the dungeons the widows blood was stolen, but Oberyn didn't get the Kings landing until Pycelle had already been free'd. Killing Tywin also benefits Varys plans as we see at the end of Dance when he kills Kevin.I think you might be right, the trial after the purple wedding was completely unplanned from oberyn's POV and it just provided a way to ser gregor. As for the pre poisoning of Tywin, although I do like the theory, there is far too few facts in the text to prove it, butif it were true, chances are that oberyn would have had to poison himself in the attempt. Though how Mace Tyrell didn't get poisoned as well....Like I said there has to be more to Doran's plan that we are not privy to, but whether Oberyn knew or not, war seems like his end game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dornish Vinegar Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I think a lot of what one thinks of this possibility has to do with whether one thinks Doran and Oberyn worked closer together, or further apart, over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Good Guy Garlan Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I think a lot of what one thinks of this possibility has to do with whether one thinks Doran and Oberyn worked closer together, or further apart, over the years. Exactly. I believe they worked together, the grass and the snake, etc. Oberyn (the snake) was sent to KL to make a fuss and keep the Lannisters busy while Doran's plan (the grass) of sending Quentyn to Dany was underway. And it worked: they even tricked Varys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonCon's Red Beard Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I think a lot of what one thinks of this possibility has to do with whether one thinks Doran and Oberyn worked closer together, or further apart, over the years. They definitely worked together. Otherwise, Oberyn would have acted way earlier. The only think that kept him at bay was that he knew Doran had a bigger plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dornish Vinegar Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 They definitely worked together. Otherwise, Oberyn would have acted way earlier. The only think that kept him at bay was that he knew Doran had a bigger plan. Nah I mean I totally agree, just emphasizing that influence to the rest of the thread :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lion Of The Night Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Exactly. I believe they worked together, the grass and the snake, etc. Oberyn (the snake) was sent to KL to make a fuss and keep the Lannisters busy while Doran's plan (the grass) of sending Quentyn to Dany was underway. And it worked: they even tricked Varys!I agree that Oberyn and Doran were working together or at least communicating with each other what they individually planned. But as for Quentyn going to Essos, no one knew about that. He could have gotten out anyways without all the rigamarole of going to KL and issuing threats and innuendo. No if there was a plan, Quentyn was only a part of it. Oberyn still was out of revenge. They may all be leading to a more complicated endgame. And I believe, like I said before, that endgame was war. And maybe a new Targaryan on the throne, but war nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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