Now for a happy topic - Ebola!

[davos]

While its been mentioned in other threads, the topic of the current Ebola outbreak does not seem to have generated much discussion on these forums (if it has I apologize, forum search didn't find anything). Of all the events going on in the world right now, and its a pretty unsettled place out there, this may actually be the most significant.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29327741

The above article sums up the current situation nicely. Ebola virus disease has been popping up with increasing regularity since its discovery in the mid 70's (76 comes to mind but my memory might be a year or two off). Previously outbreaks have occurred in remote places and were brought under control quickly by rapid intervention from national governments and transnational public health organizations. The current outbreak appears to have index case sometime around the new year. Until recently the international response has almost purely been from charity medical organizations. While their members have shown remarkable courage they are not trained to deal with this type of disease and desperately ill-equipped. Ebola virus seems to have established itself in the populations of several West African nations and is now at a point that it will be extremely difficult to eradicate.

Yes, its killed only 2,800 confirmed at this point, though the real body count is likely significantly higher. In some areas cases continue to expand at an exponential rate, though. Deaths in Sierra Leon and Liberia could hit 20,000 by November and 500k to 1 million by early next year if a way isn't found to arrest current trends. That is a major human disaster.

The nations that were hit first are the poorest of the poor and suffer from severe political dysfunction due to recent civil wars. The health care systems in these areas are abominable and were quickly overwhelmed by the outbreak. Much could be said about the economic, political and social conditions of these nations and the international community failing to take action when this could still have been easily contained.

Ebola is transmitted by bodily fluids. While highly infectious its not all that readily transmissible. Poor health care facilities, customs in the region related to handling the dead, and a high degree of distrust towards governments largely have allowed the disease to propagate. While we are likely to see some cases outside Africa at some point, at least in Western nations, the healthcare system and public health agencies would likely serve as a firewall to prevent an outbreak. Its frightening on two levels, though. The first is that, even if it remains in African, its going to kill an awful lot of people. The fact that Nigeria seems to have kept a lid the disease within its borders suggests that containment is possible, but its going to take a massive effort. Deaths will pile up significantly before any interventions achieve would start to take hold. The other second element that is scary is that viruses mutate. The rate of this increases during an outbreak, when the virus is replicating rapidly and being passed from person to person. If the virus would mutate in such a way as to become more readily transmissible while retaining its lethality and infectiousness, we would be looking at a global catastrophy. We have no good way of knowing what the potential for this occurring is. Seems its somewhere in the range of extremely low to nearly impossible. Its non-zero though, and that fact should be enough to cause the sphincters of everyone on earth to pucker in unison. This thing is currently killing 70% of those who contract it. Basically, while the the international community is finally paying attention, the response is far to small given the risks involved. Its not time to panic. and its not time to start hoarding supplies. But it is time to pay attention. While we are dropping bombs on Syria and trying to figure out what Putin intends in the Ukraine, its time to recognize that something very serious is going on in West Africa that is more dangerous than ISIS can dream of being.

I don't know exactly what to discuss here, but it seemed to me it merited its own thread. Maybe it at least helped jolt a few of you awake this morning (or gave you happy thoughts to send you off to dream time to those of who haven't quite made it to their beds yet).

[Relic]

Yeah I've been following the outbreak for months. The USA recently committed 500 million to fighting this, but how that money will be used is unknow to me. Outside of Africa, the USA, and a few European countries does anyone in the world seem to give a Shit? It doesn't seem so, I have yet to read anything about Russia or China helping in any discernable way. Japan was manufacturing an experimental vaccine but the last time I heard anything about it was a month or so ago.

I agree that the lack of action by the rest world is callous, inhumane, and potentially fatally shortsighted.

[Relic]

There was an Onion article a couple of months ago that read something like "Ebola Vaccine 5 White People Deaths Away". Too Fucking true.

[Jace, Extat]

Acknowledging that I'm going to sound like a cold-hearted bitch, I feel that I must point out that there is very little chance that the Ebola outbreak affects life outside of Africa. Continued Russian aggression and further destabilization of the Middle-East could have serious global consequences.

[Relic]

Edited to useful commentary - That's such a sad and narrow way of thinking about it Jace. If you read the article Ang linked below you will see that if global response to this horrible epidemic is not swiftly escalated Ebola cases will start stacking up at a horrifying pace, over 25k a day. Aside from the sheer mind numbing tragedy of it (if that isn't enough to grab your attention that is) eventually, no matter how safe you think you are, this thing WILL pose a danger to the entire world.

[Angalin]

Great topic, davos. No time for a proper comment right now; leaving a link to this article on the mathematical projections of the Ebola outbreak instead. They need to contain it right now.

[Solmyr]

From what I've heard about the issue, the virus originally comes from fruit bats. Some of the local tribes in the affected regions eat aforementioned bats and have even attacked medical teams that have tried to prevent them from doing so. They've also hidden the bodies of their dead, not allowing medical teams to properly dispose of them.

To me the problem seems to be with education. There are many a deadly viruses that can wipe out third world countries - fighting them one virus at a time is not the way. Developing a vaccine for ebola would surely make many people sleep much more easily, but until the health care systems and basic education about hygiene is improved in these regions, nothing will prevent people from falling victim to any number of outbreaks.

[Fragile Bird]

Glad you started the thread, I was worried the topic was a bit too grim. The idea that in a worst case scenario there could be 1.2 million ebola cases is frightening.

[Crazydog7]

I need to pull my armchair up and quarterback with the rest of you guys hell what else is the internet for?

Really awful way to die. At least thank God its one more mild strains insofar as it only kills 44% of the people who get it. The most leathal strain ever killed close to 80%.

The real danger other then the virus is the strain that such a health crisis puts on already fragile goverments. When that happens you get cheery things like this

http://www.news.com.au/world/bodies-of-eight-aid-workers-found-in-septic-tank-after-they-were-killed-by-villagers-in-guinea/story-fndir2ev-1227064747703

[theprincethatwasntpromised]

There was an Onion article a couple of months ago that read something like "Ebola Vaccine 5 White People Deaths Away". Too Fucking true.

So why is this allowed...? White people are racist because of Ebola? Africa gets the most U.S. aid at around 46%. In the past it was for famine or to fight AIDS. Who knows how much of that was swindled due to corruption. But I guess we have to protect them from Ebola as well. Seems pretty generous for such a racist county of white people! But I wouldn't expect anything less from someone who's getting news from the onion....

Seriously, Ebola is scary as hell. The world should be engaged in containing, treating, then preventing this killer. This is already the largest outbreak ever! Scary stuff

[baxus]

So why is this allowed...? White people are racist because of Ebola? Africa gets the most U.S. aid at around 46%. In the past it was for famine or to fight AIDS. Who knows how much of that was swindled due to corruption. But I guess we have to protect them from Ebola as well. Seems pretty generous for such a racist county of white people! But I wouldn't expect anything less from someone who's getting news from the onion....

Seriously, Ebola is scary as hell. The world should be engaged in containing, treating, then preventing this killer. This is already the largest outbreak ever! Scary stuff

No, white people are not racist because of ebola.

It's just that if ebola was plaguing a country where white people made up majority of the population it would probably spark more interest from pharmaceutical companies and that is a sad fact.

For various historical, social etc. reasons, countries mostly populated by white people are economically much more powerful than countries mostly populated by black people (colonization of "black countries" by "white countries" is definitely a big factor) and as such present much more lucrative markets.

It's a sad truth that pharmaceutical companies are more into finding a solution for male pattern baldness than curing ebola.

Please, let's not get into the whole foreign aid, corruption etc. discussion since it would require a separate thread or two.

[theprincethatwasntpromised]

First of baxus, I was replying to this.

There was an Onion article a couple of months ago that read something like "Ebola Vaccine 5 White People Deaths Away". Too Fucking true.

Ebola doesn't care what ethnicity you are. Having no vaccine is more likely due to the fact that Africa is dirt poor and there has never been an outbreak this severe. Not because the country is predominately black. And I brought up the US aid to show that we've been the leader in helping Africa on many different issues, as I'm sure we'll carry the weight on this one also. It would be nice to see some help from other major counties. Either way, the people there are in big trouble with out more help. It needs to be seriously addressed on a global scale

[Dicer]

It's just that if ebola was plaguing a country where white people made up majority of the population it would probably spark more interest from pharmaceutical companies and that is a sad fact.

Sad, but true. There was a guy working on Malaria who would bemoan the lack of funds for research in Malaria. My lab was a rich one, while that poor guy did not even have the funds to buy gloves for his lab. Malaria being a third world disease does not get as much interest.

In the case of Ebola, there is also the fact that the first people who were treated with ZMapp were all Westerners. Scores of Africans were dying and no one was really interested until two Americans got sick. Even in Africa, a white person had to get sick for the disease to get attention.

As this article details:

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/8/12/ebola-zmapp-ethics.html

So this statement by the Onion, " "Ebola Vaccine 5 White People Deaths Away" is quite literally true.

Also Americans and Canadians were working on ZMapp with a defence grant. Not to help the Africans, but just in case Ebola was used in bio-warfare.

[Relic]

So why is this allowed...? White people are racist because of Ebola? Africa gets the most U.S. aid at around 46%. In the past it was for famine or to fight AIDS. Who knows how much of that was swindled due to corruption. But I guess we have to protect them from Ebola as well. Seems pretty generous for such a racist county of white people! But I wouldn't expect anything less from someone who's getting news from the onion....

Seriously, Ebola is scary as hell. The world should be engaged in containing, treating, then preventing this killer. This is already the largest outbreak ever! Scary stuff

What the fuck are you taking about? The Onion is satire not a news source. No one is getting news from it....

Meh, Know what? Not even going to waste further time justifying this with a response.

[baxus]

Ebola doesn't care what ethnicity you are. Having no vaccine is more likely due to the fact that Africa is dirt poor and there has never been an outbreak this severe. Not because the country is predominately black. And I brought up the US aid to show that we've been the leader in helping Africa on many different issues, as I'm sure we'll carry the weight on this one also. It would be nice to see some help from other major counties. Either way, the people there are in big trouble with out more help. It needs to be seriously addressed on a global scale

Saying things like "ebola doesn't care what ethnicity you are" is very true and no less noble, but for as long as 99.9% of its casualties are dirt poor villagers in a dirt poor countries, pharmaceutical companies won't be bothered with it because there's no money in it. If you don't like it, feel free to reform the economy and get pharmaceutical companies to do it. I will applaud you the loudest after your Nobel prize acceptance speech.

Most of dirt poor countries are in Africa and parts of Asia and, as I said earlier,. There are some in Europe, but "dirt poor" in Europe is MUCH different from "dirt poor" in Africa. Also, if it broke out in Europe, richer countries would probably get in on it out of fear of it spreading.

There have been ebola outbreaks before and I don't see an improvement in the way they're handled.

It would be nice to see rich countries help, but as long as there is no direct threat to those countries, they will not consider this ebola outbreak as a priority.

It does need to be addressed on a global scale, but if you expect the whole world ganging up on this and dealing with it, you're in for a nasty surprise.

[WinterKing]

I need to pull my armchair up and quarterback with the rest of you guys hell what else is the internet for?

Really awful way to die. At least thank God its one more mild strains insofar as it only kills 44% of the people who get it. The most leathal strain ever killed close to 80%.

The real danger other then the virus is the strain that such a health crisis puts on already fragile goverments. When that happens you get cheery things like this

http://www.news.com.au/world/bodies-of-eight-aid-workers-found-in-septic-tank-after-they-were-killed-by-villagers-in-guinea/story-fndir2ev-1227064747703

This outbreak, if you correct mortality by day of infection, has a 70% death rate:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29327741

[Tellus Explorer]

Acknowledging that I'm going to sound like a cold-hearted bitch, I feel that I must point out that there is very little chance that the Ebola outbreak affects life outside of Africa. Continued Russian aggression and further destabilization of the Middle-East could have serious global consequences.

:Bowdown: I hope your reasoning is correct, because I agree with it and truly hope it doesn't spread farther then its own continent.

I rarely get sick, however when I am I could have a common cold for up to three/four weeks :leaving: so this virus bothers me a great deal! I mean what if traveling insects and birds carry said virus, how will we survive?

Also should we prepare for the possibilities? Or is that just paranoia?

I mean we Californians already have a bit to worry about with the lack of free falling rain water. :crying:

[theprincethatwasntpromised]

Saying things like "ebola doesn't care what ethnicity you are" is very true and no less noble, but for as long as 99.9% of its casualties are dirt poor villagers in a dirt poor countries, pharmaceutical companies won't be bothered with it because there's no money in it. If you don't like it, feel free to reform the economy and get pharmaceutical companies to do it. I will applaud you the loudest after your Nobel prize acceptance speech.

Most of dirt poor countries are in Africa and parts of Asia and, as I said earlier,. There are some in Europe, but "dirt poor" in Europe is MUCH different from "dirt poor" in Africa. Also, if it broke out in Europe, richer countries would probably get in on it out of fear of it spreading.

There have been ebola outbreaks before and I don't see an improvement in the way they're handled.

It would be nice to see rich countries help, but as long as there is no direct threat to those countries, they will not consider this ebola outbreak as a priority.

It does need to be addressed on a global scale, but if you expect the whole world ganging up on this and dealing with it, you're in for a nasty surprise.

Yeah that's exactly what I said. The lack of a vaccine is due to the poverty, not ethnicity. The sheer size of this outbreak will at least get the US and European countries working faster for one. I think with previous outbreaks, they have done a good job in quarantining the virus and limiting the damage. They've seemed to have lost control here. And yeah, I def don't believe the whole world is going to tackle this issue. Just America and a few European countries as usual.

[theprincethatwasntpromised]

What the fuck are you taking about? The Onion is satire not a news source. No one is getting news from it....

Meh, Know what? Not even going to waste further time justifying this with a response.

I know it's satire, it's the too fucking true comment that irked me. The onion didn't interject race into this thread, you did.

[straits]

I know it's satire, it's the too fucking true comment that irked me. The onion didn't interject race into this thread, you did.

To be fair, people are deliberately having fun with ebola-related talk on the basis of race:

http://www.nairaland.com/1906849/white-demon-worshippers-trying-spread

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2014/09/22/4chans-latest-terrible-prank-convincing-west-africans-that-ebola-doctors-actually-worship-the-disease/