Examining ADWD: Epilogue and Ser Kevan's assumed death

[The Fourth Head]

Question: What was the purpose of Varys speech to Ser Kevan in the Epilogue to A Dance With Dragons? Why would Varys bother convincing Ser Kevan that Aegon is Rhaegar's son?

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Part 1) Establishing that there is an absence of a canon theory to explain the purpose behind this speech

No satisfactory explanation has been provided yet as to why Varys would provide a lengthy exposition expounding on the virtues of Aegon as a worthy king to a man…Ser Kevan… with no ability to do anything pragmatic with this knowledge. The best attempts to explain the speech usually goes along the lines of this:

1) There was no purpose. Varys wasn't really talking to anyone. He had gone off on a tangent explaining to Ser Kevan why he needed to kill him. He forgot himself like a silly old woman, just as he said, and Ser Kevan was the half-forgotten intended audience. It was a plot device to tell us he was working for Aegon and to whet our appetites for TWOW. It was a slightly illogical grand exposition for us and didn't quite make sense in-universe.

In this case, you would have to consider that Varys allowed his mind to wander over to Aegon's ability to mend nets and swim rivers despite the fact that a shuddering man Varys has already claimed it pained him to shoot, is gasping on the floor trying to call out for help from anyone- guards- his wife- his brother - right in front of him. In terms of lack of empathy and total self indulgence, this is monstrous.

If this was the correct answer, not only does Ser Kevan's suffering fail to ensure Varys keeps his mind on the job (and for an extended length of time) but it involves him forgetting that there are at least 6 children concealed around the room waiting to "make an end of it" and that Varys forgot to spring the "trap" promptly as he indulged himself in reminiscing on the quaint little details of someone else miles away. This would imply that Varys was lying when claiming it pains him to do this, and at no point during the series has Varys ever been proved to tell a lie. If Varys says this pains him, I'm inclined to believe he was telling the truth and that his speech was very important, and that therefore, Varys was disguising his motives when claiming to "go on like a silly woman". Comparing talking at length to sounding like a silly woman is not what you would call, a lie, if what he had to say was important, and the earnestness of his tone during the speech where his voice deepened implied Varys was misrepresenting it with hindsight to give the impression that no planned manipulation was involved.

It would also make this perhaps one of the worst bits of writing of the entire series as the entire speech selling the virtues of Aegon contained details we, the reader already knew about, it was not relevant to the scene and hardly a revelation. We knew Varys and Illyrio were in cahoots, we knew Illyrio was preparing Aegon and by extension, discovering that Varys was (gasp!) working for Aegon is a terrible revelation for the reader. The only person this shocked was Ser Kevan- who is about to die. If you still hold to this straight reading of the text, the final page of the book involves irrelevant and unsurprising ramblings of Varys. Martin's writing is usually at its best and most considered during book-end chapters. This would be a decided drop in quality. He would have reserved his weakest effort for the final page of a book that took him 5 years to write with an irrelevant speech containing facts we already know. This is not a satisfying explanation. It makes Varys a total psychopath, takes said psychopath on face value, then implies he is an outright liar, overlooks his endless manipulations, and worse, takes GRRM's writing on face value. I do not find this explanation very satisfying.

So "there was no reason" really doesn't cut if for me. I believe everything Varys does is for a purpose. He is incredibly self aware and thoughtful. Therefore he must have been communicating to someone, and that this effort must have served a purpose for Varys that fitted his plans. So we need to look for an intended audience, and a purpose.

2) That Varys was talking to the "children".

Two children had already fetched Ser Kevan to a dead man's chambers and left Ser Kevan under the false impression that the Grand Maester was: a ) still alive and b ) that he was the one summoning Ser Kevan. Both are inaccurate. With this in mind, it would appear they were knowingly leading him into peril. When you consider the girls' graveness, I suspect her attitude had more to do with the knowledge of why she was misleading him than any sadness with regards to Pycelle, because the concealment of the children in the chamber implies this was a coordinated plan.

With all this in mind, for Varys, would an eloquent speech expounding on the how dutiful Aegon would be as a king really be necessarily in order to compel the children to stab Ser Kevan to death? Varys had already announced that Ser Kevan was a good man and did not deserve to die alone on a night like that, so as a means of persuasion to stir the blood, I don't think that's likely. Given that they were crouching behind furniture, evading detection from Ser Kevan and each holding one of "the daggers", we can safely assume they had already been persuaded to do this and knew perfectly well in advance what was required of them, and were ready to do it. I don't think these children, seemingly with no blood ties to anyone, have sufficient agency or concern for the worthiness of Aegon for such a speech to make any difference.

Now the counter argument is, didn't Jamie throw an innocent boy, Bran out of a window for the greater benefit, in his mind, of himself, his family, his children, and perhaps even, the realm? Yes. So maybe some eloquence would make a difference in terms of maintaining loyalty? Well- considering the loyalty they had already shown towards Varys at this point- they were the accomplices or even perpetrators of the murder of the Grand Maester mere moments earlier- I doubt it. A second pep talk after that seems irrelevant. I think their loyalty by this stage did not hinge on them knowing whether Aegon can mend fishing nets and what books he's read. Therefore, the speech would be superfluous. These children's consciences do not, it seems, concern Varys. If would go so far as to speculate that if Varys whistled for them to kill Aegon instead, they would.

Therefore, theorising that Varys was persuading the children is not a very satisfactory explanation.

3) The children could report back to Illyrio.

Minus their tongues, wouldn't Varys' eloquence be lost in the translation back to Illyrio? Are we to imagine that Illyrio can see their memories, or that someone is hiding away furiously writing all this down? Even if you allow for this, If Illyrio mistrusted Varys after all these years maintaining his secrets, I do not think an empty, albeit eloquent piece of irrelevant cheerleeding would make a difference and inspire renewed faith, nor that the absence of it would risk losing Illyrio's confidence. They had already committed to invading by this point. The die was cast. It seems very late in the day and very overzealous to be remotely renewing loyalties to Illyrio when actions speak louder.

I do not think this is a very satisfactory explanation.

4) Perhaps other informants were listening in the walls and Varys either wanted them to be listening, or couldn't prevent them from doing so.

This would require you to believe that Varys does not have full control over those in the walls - which is possible, though unsupported by any compelling argument. Weighing against this, he does not seem sufficiently worried to make haste if he suspected a rogue concealed listener was lurking in the walls. He had the time and confidence to kill Pycelle, send a messenger, fetch Ser Kevan, and prattle on. In theory, a rogue spy could have had time to inform Qyburn- the Master of Whisperers- that they had seen Pycelle brutally killed, and Qyburn could have arranged some pretext to send soldiers to Pycelle's study. Instead, Varys prattles on like a silly old woman, talking about windows, fishing nets, and Pycelle's bowel movements. The fact that a rogue agent hadn't already informed on Varys casts grave doubts as to whether any such person existed.

Perhaps, then, he knew the person they served, knew they would not intervene, but wanted to persuade them to change loyalties to Aegon? Perhaps. But who else could be his recipient but Qyburn? As a man with little clear conscience, encouraging Cercei to give him live healthy female test subjects, I hardly think fishing nets would stir Qyburn's heart. Indeed, an idealistic king would be less likely to permit Qyburn to continue his experiments. But what if, (and this is getting desperate) Varys' eloquent speech was for an informer to tell Qyburn who would in turn, tell Cersei?

Again, this would not explain the speech. Cercei will not follow anyone, nor care about Aegons' swimming capacity and purity of heart. In fact, Qyburn claiming he overheard Varys explaining how good Aegon is to anyone: Tarly, Mace, Rowan, even the High Septon, would not be a very convincing way to get the message across. The whispers from the words of a murderous whisperer vouching for the value of a boy they don't want to believe is real?

I think we can bury this one now.

5) He knew Bloodraven was watching- perhaps through the eyes of the Raven on the windowsill.

the best effort so far I think, but still a little off. This speech was not about Aegon's hereditary legitimacy. It was about his suitability. You would think a Targaryan ancestor would care first and foremost that the boy was who Varys was claiming him to be, but Varys doesn't provide an explanation for how he might have managed to extract Aegon from the Red Keep right under Bloodraven's nose without Bloodraven's knowledge. Instead, he goes on about how dutiful a king Aegon would be as if this is what would sway a Targaryan ancestor into believing he was real and backing him. Perhaps but it doesn't sound very compelling. I doubt Varys would assume that for 17 years, Bloodraven had no knowledge of what this boy was doing, or what sort of education he had received on the Rhoyne and that Varys was having to bring him up to speed as Bloodraven's only means of access to this information - a speech to a Raven. The emphasis seems all wrong. Wouldn't he want to sell the idea that the baby swap was possible, and could have been carried out without Bloodraven's knowledge? Pragmatics would be a far better means of persuasion for someone with as much knowledge as Bloodraven. Unlike Ser Kevan, he cannot dodge these pragmatics as easily with Bloodraven so the plausibility would naturally come under more scrutiny and suspicion.

Alternatively, Perhaps Varys suspected BR knows that Aegon was a Blackfyre, and was ok with it, as he too is a Targaryan bastard? So no contrived "how" was provided as he was still maintaing the illusion, for Ser Kevan's sake, that Aegon was the son of Rhaegar. Then that would require Bloodraven, through the white Raven on the window, to overlooking this blatant example of double speak, and assume that Varys double-tongue was his only source of information on this boy.

We know so little about Bloodraven, his scope of power, and his motives. We know of no connection between Varys and Bloodraven. Bloodraven may well have been watching through the Raven on the windowsill, and Varys may well have known this too, but I can't see what difference the speech would make on Bloodraven, so I think this theory too, is unsatisfactory. I would not rule out that Varys and Bloodraven are working together, but I cannot see how the speech would be made relevant as a result of this collusion.

6) Aegon was there, as Varys claims. The speech was a declaration of loyalty to him.

This makes my head hurt. Varys does not lie, it seems. He did claim Aegon was "here" though narrowing it down spatially is impossible - the room? the Red Keep? Westeros? Was he lurking in the walls, letting children and Varys do his dirty work before deciding that Varys could be trusted? But not after Varys killed Pycelle or shot Ser Kevan, but after Varys made a speech? Is there a second Aegon, a fake and a real?? One at storms end, the other hidden in the Keep? That would be hideously convoluted and again, makes poor sense in terms of explaining the practical purpose of the speech.

Now Aegons' bones could well reside within the Keep, so from that interpretation, assuming that the boy at Storms End is fake, Aegon was indeed "here" physically. This interpretation would entail Varys taking a creative licence in order to avoid making a direct lie by having to state that Aegon- Rhaegar's son- was at Storms End. This theory does not, however, explain the purpose of the speech or the intended audience.

Perhaps Varys knows of an afterlife? Could the souls of all Targaryan ancestors live within the Red Keep together with their bones, Aegon, Rhaegar's son, being one of them? If Varys believes in the afterlife, or in gods, or spirits, all concepts it is believed pretty much all of humanity has believed ever since we evolved from ape (and before) then he could be addressing Aegon's soul or speaking to all Targaryan ancestors, but again…why? Surely actions speak louder than words? Why in this context would Varys declare his loyalty? As a sacrifice? Why pretend someone else is a Targaryan and go on about how great they are to the spirits / Targaryan ancestors? Is he trying to fool them? All of these lines of enquiry raise more problems than they solve. Speaking to the dead, and implying to them that Aegon was both in the red keep, and the same person who grew up on the Rhoyne, who learned to fish and swim and mend nets all seems incredibly audacious and virtually impossible to wrap my head around.

In summary, no satisfactory explanation has been provided for what the purpose of this speech was, and therefore, there is value in seeking a solution that would make the speech, and GRRM's writing, coherent. Feel free to comment. I shall examine the text more closely in part 2.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Question: What was the purpose of Varys speech to Ser Kevan in the Epilogue to A Dance With Dragons? Why would Varys bother convincing Ser Kevan that Aegon is Rhaegar's son?

1) There was no purpose. Varys wasn't really talking to anyone. He had gone off on a tangent explaining to Ser Kevan why he needed to kill him. He forgot himself like a silly old woman, just as he said, and Ser Kevan was the half-forgotten intended audience. It was a plot device to tell us he was working for Aegon and to whet our appetites for TWOW. It was a slightly illogical grand exposition for us and didn't quite make sense in-universe.

In this case, you would have to consider that Varys allowed his mind to wander over to Aegon's ability to mend nets and swim rivers despite the fact that a shuddering man Varys has already claimed it pained him to shoot, is gasping on the floor trying to call out for help from anyone- guards- his wife- his brother - right in front of him. In terms of lack of empathy and total self indulgence, this is monstrous.

If this was the correct answer, not only does Ser Kevan's suffering fail to ensure Varys keeps his mind on the job (and for an extended length of time) but it involves him forgetting that there are at least 6 children concealed around the room waiting to "make an end of it" and that Varys forgot to spring the "trap" promptly as he indulged himself in reminiscing on the quaint little details of someone else miles away. This would imply that Varys was lying when claiming it pains him to do this, and at no point during the series has Varys ever been proved to tell a lie. If Varys says this pains him, I'm inclined to believe he was telling the truth and that his speech was very important, and that therefore, Varys was disguising his motives when claiming to "go on like a silly woman". Comparing talking at length to sounding like a silly woman is not what you would call, a lie, if what he had to say was important, and the earnestness of his tone during the speech where his voice deepened implied Varys was misrepresenting it with hindsight to give the impression that no planned manipulation was involved.

It would also make this perhaps one of the worst bits of writing of the entire series as the entire speech selling the virtues of Aegon contained details we, the reader already knew about, it was not relevant to the scene and hardly a revelation. We knew Varys and Illyrio were in cahoots, we knew Illyrio was preparing Aegon and by extension, discovering that Varys was (gasp!) working for Aegon is a terrible revelation for the reader. The only person this shocked was Ser Kevan- who is about to die. If you still hold to this straight reading of the text, the final page of the book involves irrelevant and unsurprising ramblings of Varys. Martin's writing is usually at its best and most considered during book-end chapters. This would be a decided drop in quality. He would have reserved his weakest effort for the final page of a book that took him 5 years to write with an irrelevant speech containing facts we already know.

Yeah, well, that's, like, just your opinion, man...

I believe that Varys was talking to Kevan, yet his speech certainly doesn't strike me as the worst baddest ungood writing ever. A stratagem that Varys had worked on probably for the most part of his life, reached its final stage. He wants to say it out loud. His audience happens to be heretofore Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm. Soon to die, but for now breathing and coherent. He'll do.

(Also, there are certainly better candidates for the coveted title of worst writing evuh. The question "where whores go", repeated fifty times too many, comes to mind, for one.)

[Red Wedding Cake]

I'm with Ferocious. It's the epilogue, it's meant to be exciting and Aegon's story is worth repeating for emphasis.

Maybe Varys just needed Kevan's face to look extra shocked upon his death so he could frame Tyrion and drive Cersei into madness.

[Edmure's Floppy Fish]

Given the amount of time spent talking about Ravens and how ALL ravens are controlled by dead COTF and Varys' "it's all for the Children" comment, makes me think the message was for the Old Gods.

You are right in saying to chalk it up to "bad writing" would be foolish. Maybe Varys and The Children of the Forrest have some history/connection that has yet to be revealed. But I can't help but get the sense that he wanted the raven to hear his rant about Aegon. GRRM could have written that scene without the raven but he chose to put it in there for a reason.

Maybe Varys was trying to feed someone false information. The most informed person on Planetos must know about The Others, The Children, and Greenseers.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Saying that Varys not controlling every spy in kings landing is not supported by the text is not correct. We know LF has spies, we know LF knows many secrets of the Red Keep, as we watched him bring Ned out a secret passage. We also know Doran has an informer in KL, and I assume he was talking to 1 or both of their informants because those people thinking Aegon is real is very important to his plan. If Doran thinks he's real Aegon doesn't need to marry Arrianne, and Aegon can marry Sansa, who Varys obviously knows is with Baelish.

[The Fourth Head]

I believe that Varys was talking to Kevan, yet his speech certainly doesn't strike me as the worst baddest ungood writing ever. A stratagem that Varys had worked on probably for the most part of his life, reached its final stage. He wants to say it out loud. His audience happens to be heretofore Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm. Soon to die, but for now breathing and coherent. He'll do.

I don't subscribe to theory 1, and I think there is more to this than meets the eye.

Of all the details bursting to be said, I think explaining how he fooled the Lannisters and how he intends to take the IT would have been more cathartic than explaining that Aegon knows how to mend fishing nets. IMO, He was convincing Kevan that Aegon would make a better king than Tommen. The question is why?

[The Fourth Head]

Saying that Varys not controlling every spy in kings landing is not supported by the text is not correct. We know LF has spies, we know LF knows many secrets of the Red Keep, as we watched him bring Ned out a secret passage. We also know Doran has an informer in KL, and I assume he was talking to 1 or both of their informants because those people thinking Aegon is real is very important to his plan. If Doran thinks he's real Aegon doesn't need to marry Arrianne, and Aegon can marry Sansa, who Varys obviously knows is with Baelish.

We are to believe LF has his own agents, yes, though we have no evidence that they had free run of Maegors Keep's secret passageways. We know LF could get Ned from the tower of the hand out of the Castle, but I think The tower of the hand is not in Maegors Keep.

Still, allowing for this, I doubt LF would be persuaded to support Aegon on the basis of Aegon's education. This speech had nothing to do with blood-legitimacy or proof. He did not explain the pragmatics of the baby swap. Instead he went to great lengths to explain how "good" Aegon would be - how "deserving" how just he would be and provided humble examples of how decent he was likely to be. This was not a speech for LF's ears.

As for Doran, assuming the overheard comments of Varys would convince Doran that Aegon was real is a long-shot, all it proves is that Varys is saying he's real and it render Arianne's opinion moot. Again, the speech was about what a nice king Aegon would make, not proving his legitimacy, and yes, there is no supportable evidence that the Martells have free run of the Keep's secret passageways. Additionally, I doubt Doran waited 17 years to not marry his daughter to him and to fully commit based on Varys' say-so.

In both these cases, it requires a spy to remember these details and translate them back to either Doran or LF, and so not only is the performance lost, but relies on the quality of the interpreter. A serious case of lost-in translation, i think- a watered down second hand account from an untrustworthy source- Varys- and lacking in proof or facts. Books and net mending is hardly likely to sway LF and Doran into changing their play.

[The Fourth Head]

Part 2) Assessing why Ser Kevan and we, the reader both believe he will die.

An enormous amount of effort has gone in to creating the impression that:

1) Varys intends to take Ser Kevan permanently out of commission through death.

2) that Ser Kevan will die despite Varys going to great pains not to say as much, and without us actually reading of his subsequent death.

Coupled with this is the overwhelming cultural expectation in the west that death is final and nothing after death is relevant to the living- or indeed exists. These are all expectations most of us hold, and GRRM knows we hold.

No word or label is explicitly given to what Varys intends to do with Ser Kevan, so the reader is left to their imagination and the overwhelming impression we get is that Varys will have Ser Kevan stabbed to death by the children and Ser Kevan's role will be finished permanently. Coupled with this is a lack of interest in this character, and therefore, an unwillingness to look too closely at the chapter, in marked contrast to, say, Jon Snow's stabbing and the events surrounding it.

The first theme that is apparent is that throughout Varys dialogue with Ser Kevan, he repeatedly evades using the word "death" and "die" when referring to Ser Kevan. Varys never says exactly what he intends to do with Ser Kevan, yet a powerful expectation is maintained throughout the scene that Ser Kevan will be killed and that this is Varys intent. I should also point out that this is not only Varys / GRRM setting our expectations of what will happen next, this is Varys setting Ser Kevans expectations of what will happen next as well. Such a distinction is very important in establishing the coherence of the scene.

The first indication of his intent is the style in which Varys initially wounds Ser Kevan. Consider Ser Kevan's first thought:

A quarrel was sunk almost to the fletching in his chest. No no, that was how my brother died.

Interrupting the shock of the initial hit comes the terrifying thought that this was exactly how his brother died. Ser Kevan is encouraged, by circumstance, to think of his brother, dead, and accept that he will probably die like he did. if Tywin can die from a quarrel wound, so can he. An arrow, or a knife in the back would not have had the same power of association. Further, that murder, from a quarrel wound, occurred in the same circumstances- in the Red Keep, and the culprit was never proved.

But already there is manipulation involved. Before Varys reveals himself, the reader is baffled because we know that Tyrion shot his father, and Tyrion cannot have fired the quarrel at Ser Kevan. The moment Varys reveals himself, deception is afoot, because Varys was not Tywin's killer, and Ser Kevan assumes he was. An a consequence, Ser Kevan now has cause to suspect Tyrion was innocent of shooting Tywin, a secondary piece of manipulation.

As if Ser Kevan hadn't already figured this out, Varys makes certain the link is established in Ser Kevan's mind.

"I though the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Tywin, why not that?"

Now this is both obvious, and cryptic. We know what he's getting at, but his language is imprecise. He does not say "share the same death" so Ser Kevan is left to fill in that blank for himself- as are we.

After being shot, Ser Kevan's second thought is of being saved- of Pycelle. Luckily, (and remember, Ser Kevan was led here specifically) he is in a Grand Maester's chamber. If anyone can save him, it's Pycelle.

"Pycelle"…he muttered, confused. "Help me"

Traumatically, Ser Kevan has this hope crushed like the skull of the Grand Maester, who's body- with bits of blood and brains everywhere, just happens to be within his line of sight. The Grand Maester cannot save him, and whoever killed him was certainly not bluffing, so why would they let him off the hook?

Varys says:

Ser Kevan, forgive me if you can. I bear you no ill will. This was not done from malice. It was done for the realm. For the children"

Note- once again he avoids explicitly stating "killing you was not done from malice" - he says "this was not done from malice". He also avoids saying "killing you was for the realm" he says "it" Perhaps Varys is being lazy and economical with his words for brevity, to add a little swagger, a little style, or he was being tactful and discreet out of compassion? Maybe, but strictly speaking all he has done so far is shoot Ser Kevan in the chest with a quarrel, and the past tenses he is adopting would imply the firing of the crossbow was all Varys was asking forgiveness for.

Indeed, if Varys was talking about Ser Kevan's death in the past tense, then Varys' tenses are all over the place. Logically, he is asking for forgiveness from a dead man, and bearing this dead man no ill will, yet Ser Kevan is still talking, thinking, moving etc. He really aught to be talking in the future, or at worst, the present tense if he was referring to death. He wasn't.

A final point i'd like to make on this section of text is that Varys doesn't state exactly what Ser Kevan is supposed to forgive him for. So once again, Ser Kevan is left to fill in the gap and assume he means forgiveness for causing his death, and not simply shooting him with a quarrel.

Then we get the only time Varys explicitly mentions Ser Kevan's death.

"This pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to die alone on such a cold night, but you were threatening to undo all the Queen's good work {snip} So…"

Now in the whole scene, the only explicit reference to Ser Kevan's death is Varys telling him that he does not deserve to die alone tonight, and then after presumably providing his motives for why he is doing "this" anyway, he fails to finish the point. So…what? "your death is necessary for the realm"? He doesn't even go that far. He tails off and leaves Ser Kevan to fill in the blank.

So he still hasn't confirmed he will have him killed, and by the same measure, he hasn't confirm this is why he is killing him. It's just a list of possible future events- undoing all the Queen's good work, reconciling Highgarden, binding the faith etc, etc. But really, as obvious as it all seems as motives for killing him, Varys does not explicitly say as much.

Now there is always the chance that Varys may simply be softening the blow- not being too brutally literal. Perhaps this is a sign of genuine compassion? He did say how much it pains him, and he does seem to affect a delicate temperament. If that's true though, Varys' delicate temperament, he had no such qualms being candid and immodest talking about about another man he seems to have brutally murdered, (or presided over the brutal killing of) Pycelle:

"the Grand Maester befouled himself in dying"

I doubt therefore, that Varys really is a delicate flower, and I see little reason to maintain that illusion.

Now clearly, Ser Kevan's suffering is not paining Varys. If it were, he would not waste time pointing out windows, Pycelle, or launch into a monologue about Aegon's fishing abilities, not when Ser Kevan is bleeding from the mouth, begging for help, and shuddering. Therefore, avoiding using the word "death" seems to be for reasons other than a terribly inconsistent display of sensitivity designed for Ser Kevan's benefit, or out of genuine compassion. On both counts, it fails.

Personally, I believe Varys led Ser Kevan to Pycelle's chamber and pointed him out to Ser Kevan explicitly to discourage Ser Kevan from hoping he would survive. It was to force Ser Kevan to give into despair and to focus on Varys and not of survival or escape, but it only partially worked. I accept this is simply conjecture.

There is always the chance mentioning Pycelle's stink was an elaborate device to throw Ser Kevan - and us "off the scent", that is, that Varys deliberately opened the window and this entire scene then took place witnessed by a giant white raven. Providing a pragmatic excuse and fussing over how cold a man is who is stuck with a crossbow and whom he intends to kill seems to me like yet more incongruous behaviour and leads me to suspect deliberate misdirection.

Then Varys proceeds to talk about the future, about how Cersei will suspect the Tyrells of having him murdered.

Now I do not doubt his is what Varys expects- that Cersei will see Ser Kevan and then suspect the Tyrells of having him murdered. But consider these passages:

Jon knew that face. Othor. He thought, reeling back. Gods he's dead, he's dead, I saw him dead. GOT

When she lowered her hood, something tightened inside Merrett's chest, and for a moment he could not breathe. No. No, I saw her die. ASOS

"That cannot be" she said. "She's dead". "Death and guest right" muttered Long Jeyne Heddle "They don't mean so much as they used to" ASOS

"I thought the Hound had killed you but…" "A wound" Said Lem Lemoncloak. "A grievous wound aye, but Thoros healed it. There's never been no better healer" Lord Beric gazed at Lem with a queer look. "Even brave men blind themselves sometimes, when they are afraid to see" ASOS

I shall expand on this later, but for now, the point is simply that Cersei accusing the Tyrells' of having him murdered doesn't mean Ser Kevan will experience a clean permanent death. death don't mean what it used to.

So then Varys gets' onto the topic of Aegon, which, coincidentally provokes Ser Kevan to utter the word Varys has been dancing around this entire scene

"Dead. He's dead."

"No" The Eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here"

So Varys has essentially brought Aegon back to life in Ser Kevan's mind. Not only has Varys stated that Ser Kevan does not deserve to die, but he has denied that someone else- assumed dead for 17 years- is actually dead. Ser Kevan has spent the whole scene assuming he will die. He has spent the last 17 years assuming Aegon was dead. Varys denies Aegon is dead. Further, he has made Ser Kevan feel foolish to have thought that Aegon was dead. There is a clear theme this chapter- that of death, and life, and Varys is toying with both.

It is now that Varys launches into an eloquent speech which makes Aegon sound like a wonderful king. Idealised, dutiful, humble, clever, everything a loyal Lord could wish for in a King. In this context, with Ser Kevans' dying so likely, Ser Kevan must assume lying would serve no purpose to Varys, and that therefore, what he is saying is the truth. Varys has acted respectfully, acknowledged Ser Kevan is a good man who doesn't deserve to die alone, and told him about the wonderful king Westeros could have, a boy Ser Kevan was already, prior to this scene, allowing could be the son of Rhaegar, presumably.

As Varys seemed very absent minded towards the end- Pycelle, the window, the extraneous details about Aegon, this speech must have felt to Kevan highly incidental on Varys part. He was prattling on like a silly old woman, so whether Ser Kevan believed him or not was seemingly of no concern to Varys.

Finally, Varys issues something which apparently serves as a death sentence

"I'm sorry, Varys wrung his hands, you are suffering I know. Time to finish it"

Once again, there is nothing nothing literal. What is the "it" Varys has resolved to finish? We are left to assume "it" means finishing Ser Kevan's suffering, and that finishing Ser Kevan's suffering means killing him. Once again it maintains the effect that Varys is having Ser Kevan killed without quite committing Varys to doing so. it could mean Kevan's autonomy as an independent living entity before entering an undead state. "it" could refer to a trial of the soul that had now finished. This is speculation, but as Varys didn't say "time to finish you off" we cannot assume to know precisely what "it" means.

Another clue that there is manipulation at play here is the following detail

"I am sorry" Varys wrung his hands "you are suffering"

Hand wringing is widely considered by psychologists to be a subconscious indication of stress, or anxiety. It perhaps indicates a subconscious twisting and manipulating of expectations. Now Ser Kevan is in a bad place, and Varys has already presided over Pycelle's skull-pop and shot Ser Kevan, so a pique of angst doesn't quite fit - a final crossbow bolt to the head would be a very easy task.

His anxiety could be because he doesn't trust his children, but as we already established in part 1, that seems unlikely, and even if that had been the case, why not end the dying man's suffering himself rather than get all anxious over asking the children to do it? I struggle to empathise and explain this hand-wringing moment of anxiety from Varys. The task at hand does not seem to warrant a sudden increase in tension unless of course something else was about to happen other than the easily performed task of stabbing him to death, of which the risk of that simple goal backfiring seem virtually nil?

Varys wrings his hands, and then he does this:

the Eunuch pursed his lips and gave a little whistle

What form of communication is this, where he can signal to his children to carry out a preconceived plan with a whistle? Are they like trained dogs? This is not the sort of communication you would expect a man to have with six children. Further, it again disguises what he is actually asking them to do. This is not a form of communication we can understand. The children knew what was expected of them in advance of the signal. All we can do is assume what they will do, and guess the motives.

[The Fourth Head]

Another example where a form of mysterious communication is given, where we are allowed to see what happens after the signal is given is in the PROLOGUE to AGOT.

When the blades touched the steel shattered. A scream echoes through the forest night. The watchers moved forward together, as if some signal had been given. Swords rose and fell, all in a deathly silence. It was cold butchery. the pale blades sliced through ringmail as if it were silk

Now there there are a myriad of similarities between these two scenes, which I shall point out in a moment, but for now, we have a scream and a whistle that prompts approximately 6 blade wielders and an other to advance towards a fallen man. In this instance, they stab Ser Waymar, his natural life ends, and Waymar Royce rises as a wight after a period of time to strangle Will.

So we get to the last lines of the book before the Winds of Winter.

They were all around him, half a dozen of them, white faced children with dark eyes, boys and girls together.

And in their hands, the daggers

The book closes with the impression that Ser Kevan is about to be stabbed to death by the white faced dark eyed children around him with the daggers.

Again though, some details are off. This is overkill. Why does it take six children and Varys- (the sound of his feet indicate he is moving towards Ser Kevan too), to end the suffering of one defenceless man? Why can't he just nod at one to rush out and stab him in the heart, or why can't he just fire another quarrel into Ser Kevan like Tyrion did? Does it truly take seven people to stab a man to death? This seems premeditated and ritualistic, just like with Waymar.

Finally, they are not just daggers. These are "the" daggers. From Ser Kevan's POV, I'm assuming that unless he recognised them from somewhere else ( Ser Kevan slapped a hand to his forehead, "but of course, it's, those daggers") he must have been able to see something visually significant and unique about these daggers which separated them from normal daggers, yet did not necessarily understand their significance. Otherwise, they would just be children holding daggers.

So if we are talking about visually unique daggers, what could have been visually unique about them? Well the largest part of a dagger is the blade.

Once again, all this reminds me strongly of the PROLOGUE scene in GOT. Those blades too were unique, they were pale, which sounds very similar in description to the sword the leader was carrying.

No human metal had gone into the forging of that blade. It was alive with moonlight, translucent, a shard of crystal so thin that it seemed almost to vanish when seen edge-on. There was a faint blue shimmer to the thing, a ghost light that played around it's edges, and somehow Will knew that it was sharper than any razor"

Note the blade looking like a shard of crystal and it looking alive with the moonlight.

The rest was shrouded in shadow….except beneath the open window, where a spray of ice crystals glittered in the moonlight

I'm not going to go far as to commit to the idea that these ice crystals were the blades the children wielded, but the opening of the window to let the cold in as winter falls allows yet more parallels.

[The Fourth Head]

Now in fairness, there are differences too. Will described the Watcher's blades as pale, and "swords rose and fell". So those were swords and not daggers. But those wielding the blades were not describes as children-sized. They were Watchers, presumably adult sized intercepting an adult sized able man. However, Arya's needle was a sword length for her, but a little blade for an adult, and equally a long dagger could serve a child in the same way as a sword would for a man. It's a case of ergonomics.

Note also the emergence of the leader of the group.

He stood in a pool of shadow by a bookcase, ADWD EPILOGUE

A shadow emerged from the dark of the wood. GOT PROLOGUE

Ok- suspenseful stylistic horror writing, what of it?

Varys and the Other are described as having pale skin.

pale faced, ADWD EPILOGUE

with flesh pale as milk. GOT PROLOGUE

But it's cold in the solar. People look pale when they are cold and that thing is made of ice. Two coincidences.

silk slippers swaddled his feet, ADWD EPILOGUE

the Other slid forward on silent feet GOT PROLOGUE

One is an Ice Demon that moves lightly on ice, the other wears silk slippers and makes a noise- albeit a very quiet one.

another coincidence.

A child emerged from a pool of darkness, a pale boy in a ragged robe. They were all around him, half a dozen of them ADWD EPILOGUE

They emerged silently from the shadows, twins to the first. Three of them…four..five.GOT PROLOGUE

[The Fourth Head]

Then there is the constant reminder throughout both chapters of how much colder it is.

Ser Kevan had always found (Pycelle's chamber) uncomfortably hot. Not tonight. Once past the chamber door the chill was palpable, (later after Varys whistles) Ser Kevan was cold as ice ADWD EPILOGUE

So we are left to assuming out of habit, that this is a similie- that Ser Kevan wasn't literally as cold as ice. But what if it was a metaphor? Ser Kevan and ice- a connection has now been established. Ice preserves.

So if you follow me so far and appreciate there are many parallels here, does GOT Prologue give us any clues as to what may happen next?

Will Rose. Ser Waymar Royce stood over him. The right eye was open. The pupil burned blue. It saw.

As of now, I'll look at why Varys' speech was potentially intended for Ser Kevan after all.

[Deep Like Davos]

Are you saying Kevan isn't dead? Its an epilogue. The POV always dies in the epilogue.

[Bonifer Tasty]

There is another possible audience for Varys' speech...the Archmaesters of the Citadel, via Archmaester Walgrave (= warg raven) who is thought by some to spend all of his time warging the birds and gaining information.

Not that I definitely have decided that the ravens are Wargrave rather than Bloodraven, but if so, it would make sense that Varys would signal the citadal of the arrival of a new Targaryen, one with a supposedly legit claim to the throne...

Just a thought

[The Fourth Head]

Are you saying Kevan isn't dead? Its an epilogue. The POV always dies in the epilogue.

im suggesting death isn't what it used to be. Will was assumed dead in GOT PROLOGUE but we have no idea- likely he is a wight. Chett lived on beyond the Prologue of ASOS to become 'undead' and continue to participate with Sam's story, and the Frey was lifted in the air by a rope like Brienne. Declaring death is black and white and an unbending rule is clearly not what GRRM is going for, but a transformation away from a pure living state is not something i would argue against.

[Deep Like Davos]

im suggesting death isn't what it used to be. Will was assumed dead in GOT PROLOGUE but we have no idea- likely he is a wight. Chett lived on beyond the Prologue of ASOS to become 'undead' and continue to participate with Sam's story, and the Frey was lifted in the air by a rope like Brienne. Declaring death is black and white and an unbending rule is clearly not what GRRM is going for, but a transformation away from a pure living state is not something i would argue against.

I don't mean to nitpick, really... but we get confirmation of Merritt's death by his daughter, at Castle Darry, in Jaime's POV.

Also- I think if one becomes a wight we can classify them as dead. We're not talking about Beric/LS where they continue on with their old lives (relatively). We have never even heard a wight talk. What would this knowledge avail UnKevan? Not like he could communicate it.

[The Fourth Head]

There is another possible audience for Varys' speech...the Archmaesters of the Citadel, via Archmaester Walgrave (= warg raven) who is thought by some to spend all of his time warging the birds and gaining information.

Not that I definitely have decided that the ravens are Wargrave rather than Bloodraven, but if so, it would make sense that Varys would signal the citadal of the arrival of a new Targaryen, one with a supposedly legit claim to the throne...

Just a thought

an interesting avenue, though Walgrave as yet doesn't seem an obviously relevant target audience, as he doesn't have any status in the citadel. things can change and will a lot im sure, but i'm erring more towards Ser Kevan being the target, and that this was a trial of the soul. He was left pretty convinced that Aegon was genuine and would be good to serve and as we know from Dondarrion, Chett and Catelyn, last impressions count.

[The Fourth Head]

I don't mean to nitpick, really... but we get confirmation of Merritt's death by his daughter, at Castle Darry, in Jaime's POV.

Also- I think if one becomes a wight we can classify them as dead. We're not talking about Beric/LS where they continue on with their old lives (relatively). We have never even heard a wight talk. What would this knowledge avail UnKevan? Not like he could communicate it.

Yes, i suppose i'm claiming Ser Kevan will die but wont stay dead. Are they dead when they are animated? you could claim Beric was alive when animated, and dead when not. How much agency a person reanimated by ice as opposed to fire possesses is a constantly shifting game of rules. As Winter has arrived, and this was a highly ritualised occasion, i wouldn't presume to know what isn't possible. He could be a fully animated willing thrall.

[Deep Like Davos]

an interesting avenue, though Walgrave as yet doesn't seem an obviously relevant target audience, as he doesn't have any status in the citadel. things can change and will a lot im sure, but i'm erring more towards Ser Kevan being the target, and that this was a trial of the soul. He was left pretty convinced that Aegon was genuine and would be good to serve and as we know from Dondarrion, Chett and Catelyn, last impressions count.

Chett was just a normal wightified wight. Nothing special going on there (like Beric, LS, maybe coldhands)

[The Fourth Head]

Chett was just a normal wightified wight. Nothing special going on there (like Beric, LS, maybe coldhands)

Chett pursuing Sam could be construed as a continuation of his malgnant attitude towards Sam, without any intervening "God" required, but that is conjecture.

The question im asking is, what is "normal"? Jon theorised that the wights still retained a degree of memory- ie, a sense of self. How much agency they are granted by whoever controls them is unclear, but I don't think anyone would assume that one person can control multiple puppets right down to the moving of their legs- they aren't warged, they are...co-occupied you might say, just like Bran co-occupies Hodor and Summer, and just like Coldhands was coocupied perhaps by BR. He had agency and cooperated willingly. There is no proof that BR used ice-magic, and it' possible the wielders of ice-magic thralls simply don't have the power to restore fully functional talking people, but equally, we don't know if they want their thralls to hold their silence, nor whether growing magic and the coming of winter- a massive event - wont extend their reanimating abilities to be every inch the match for fire.

[oopeed]

maybe he was just telling Kevan why he had to die... you know, just for the lulz of knowing that his whole life had amounted to absolutely nothing now that shit would drop altogether with his death.

I know it sounds absolutely mental. But who knows.