UK Politics: Crisis For Doomed [Insert Name]

[Recovering forum addict]

“This is as much about (1) making statements about politics as it is about (2) doing good things,” he told a local TV news station.

“I (1) welcome one, I’m (2) not convinced about the other.”

That's an interesting order.

[Alex.]

Innit

[A wilding]

Translation of what the Tory MP is saying:

Look, much of our electoral base is misguided middle age + people who have not yet noticed that Maggie Thatcher turned us into the nasty party acting only for the benefit of the 1%. Stop doing things that make it harder for them to close their eyes to what we are doing to the bottom 25%!

[The Iceman of the North]

A poll by Ipsos Pori have SNP at 52% in Scotland, giving them 54 MPs, up by 48 from the current Parliament. Scottish Labour are plummeting to just 23%, while the Tories are barely larger than the LibDems and the Scottish Greens (10, 6, and 6, respectively).

[ljkeane]

Great. Labour losing seats is just what we need. :frown5:

ETA: Although in fairness I doubt it'll actually be quite that bad for Labour in Scotland come General Election time. The current circumstances are pretty good for SNP polling results but a little further down the wanting to vote for the biggest party who aren't the Tories will probably result in an increase in Labour support.

[paddington]

Great. Labour losing seats is just what we need. :frown5:

Was watching newsnight a few nights ago, and one expert predicted labour would win the most seats, the Tories would get the most votes. With no 2 parties able to form a majority. Anyway its a long time untill May.

[Chaircat Meow]

Great. Labour losing seats is just what we need. :frown5:

It sure is. Just not to the SNP.

Anyway, we all know the SNP are not going to win 54 seats or anything like it at the next election, so I'd discount that Mori poll.

[mormont]

The poll is almost certainly influenced by the current stramash over the Scottish Labour leadership, since it was taken during the worst period of that story: the period where first Johann Lamont resigned and launched an attack on her colleagues at Westminster, then for a few days it looked as if nobody was particularly keen to take over from her. The contrast with the smooth handover of power in the SNP was marked: the public generally hate infighting in political parties. Once the dust settles and Jim Murphy takes over, Labour should bounce back a bit.

[Maltaran]

So you think Murphy will win?

[williamjm]

A poll by Ipsos Pori have SNP at 52% in Scotland, giving them 54 MPs, up by 48 from the current Parliament. Scottish Labour are plummeting to just 23%, while the Tories are barely larger than the LibDems and the Scottish Greens (10, 6, and 6, respectively).

There was another poll today showing the SNP on 43% and Labour on 27% so it isn't just one rogue poll showing them with a big lead. While I don't expect them to get a number anywhere near as high as that in the actual General Election it is a reminder that the SNP could make a big difference to the composition of the next parliament, picking up another dozen seats (which doesn't seem too implausible) could well be enough to deny Labour a majority.

[The Marquis de Leech]

I have wondered if the Tories might actually do surprisingly well in Scotland in 2015 - perhaps get another seat or two. The collapse of the Lib Dem vote is going to go everywhere, after all.

[mormont]

So you think Murphy will win?

Everyone thinks Murphy will win. He's odds-on favourite and has the most support. Neil Findlay admits himself that he's standing only so there will be a token left-wing candidate, and Findlay's still listed as more likely to win than Sarah Boyack, whose main claim to the leadership is that she was in Donald Dewar's cabinet over a decade ago.

[SeanF]

I have wondered if the Tories might actually do surprisingly well in Scotland in 2015 - perhaps get another seat or two. The collapse of the Lib Dem vote is going to go everywhere, after all.

The Tories would have a good chance of winning West Aberdeenshire and Roxburgh from the Lib Dems, if they can hold onto their vote share of 16% or so.

Current polling is dire for Labour in Scotland, and pretty bad in England and Wales. If they were to lose 20 or so seats to the SNP , they'd have to win almost 90 in England and Wales for a majority, which looks far out of reach.

[Maltaran]

Labour plans to replace the House of Lords with an elected Senate. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29857849

[paddington]

Wouldn't an elected senate become a rubber stamp/brickwall for the ruling party in the commons?

A non party politicised 2nd house would be okay, not sure how that would happen with it being elected,

[ljkeane]

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of that. An elected upper house will probably want more power which isn't a good thing, just going with a unicameral parliament would be better.

I really don't want the Tories to win the next election but Labour aren't doing a particularly good job of making me enthusiastic about voting for them.

[The Marquis de Leech]

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of that. An elected upper house will probably want more power which isn't a good thing, just going with a unicameral parliament would be better.

Agree entirely. Upper Houses have a habit of either being roadblocks (US Senate or Australian Senate) or useless exercises in patronage (Canada Senate or current House of Lords). Just axing it altogether makes more sense.

[The Iceman of the North]

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of that. An elected upper house will probably want more power which isn't a good thing, just going with a unicameral parliament would be better.

In a system where the government is supposed to actually work, I never understood what the point of a bicameral parliament was. I can understand it in a system like the US where the government isn't supposed to work, but surely that's not the case for the UK?

[Alex.]

On the other hand the Lords have been the only roadblock for some horrible stuff the Commons has put through the east ffew years

[The Marquis de Leech]

In a system where the government is supposed to actually work, I never understood what the point of a bicameral parliament was. I can understand it in a system like the US where the government isn't supposed to work, but surely that's not the case for the UK?

Bicameralism evolved in the UK (or England, anyway) for a very simple reason: there was insufficient space to put all the representatives in the same room. So the Lords and Commons met separately.