Protests in Hong Kong

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

Here's a more eloquent post describing what I was trying to say:

Right, it’s not the GDP share that’s the issue. It’s that Hong Kong acts as an airlock for Chinese capital markets. It allows the CCP to maintain capital controls, but still access global financial markets. China feels that there’s much more stability and sense o control in this arrangement. For their, part Western counter-parties are much more comfortable going through Hong Kong intermediaries where the rule of law is excellent. Many more international players would be hesitant to touch anything if they weren’t insulated from Chinese corruption. The arrangement also allows party members to freely launder their embezzled funds in banks that are out of reach of Mainland authorities.

In that sense even though Hong Kong’s a smaller share of Chinese GDP, it’s much more secure. Mainland China is way more economically intertwined with it than it was immediately after the handover. Consider the unthinkable, what if the CCP announced the end of one country two systems tomorrow? Total financial panic. Chinese equity indices would collapse by more than 50%. Real estate would tumble by almost the same. Banks would fail across the mainland. Most of the corrupt officials (which is probably near all of them) would be at risk of being exposed and executed. Blood in the streets, inter-party coups. If you’re a party bureaucrat in 2014, this is exactly the kind of scenario that you’ve been indoctrinated to stay as far away from at all costs. That’s why touching Hong Kong is unthinkable.

[Horza]

Oh, so they're actually paranoid about the cookies:

Diplomats in Hong Kong have spoken of their shock at receiving a letter from the Chinese foreign ministry instructing them to avoid the ongoing pro-democracy protests that have swept the city.

The letter, sent from the Office of the Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on September 28, was addressed to all foreign consulates in Hong Kong. It was first reported by the website Harbour Times and confirmed by the South China Morning Post.

“At present, some radical groups in Hong Kong are staging illegal activities of assembly and "Occupy Central", some acts of violence and legal offenses have occurred as a result,” the letter read. “The Hong Kong Police is dealing with them in accordance with the law.”

“To ensure the safety of all consular personnel and foreign nationals living in Hong Kong, we hope all Consulates-General in Hong Kong will strictly abide by the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and relevant local laws and regulations of Hong Kong, restrain the behaviors of its consular staffs, and advise its nationals living in Hong Kong to stay away from the sites of assembly and "Occupy Central", so as to avoid violating the law and affecting their own safety and interests.”

[TerraPrime]

The Vox piece is a good starter, but it is still missing a few components, imo.

This began in 1997, when the United Kingdom handed over Hong Kong, one of its last imperial possessions, to the Chinese government. Hong Kong had spent over 150 years under British rule; it had become a fabulously wealthy center of commerce and had enjoyed, while not full democracy, far more freedom and democracy than the rest of China. So, as part of the handover, the Chinese government in Beijing promised to let Hong Kong keep its special rights and its autonomy — a deal known as "one country, two systems."

A big part of that deal was China's promise that, in 2017, Hong Kong's citizens would be allowed to democratically elect their top leader for the first time ever. That leader, known as the Hong Kong chief executive, is currently appointed by a pro-Beijing committee. In 2007, the Chinese government reaffirmed its promise to give Hong Kong this right in 2017, which in Hong Kong is referred to as universal suffrage — a sign of how much value people assign to it.

The story began further back than that.

It began with, oh, I don't know, probably the British colonial rule.

The negotiation in returning HK to mainland between the UK and China involved many horse-trading aspects, but one showman piece was the democratization of HK. The UK successfully used it as a bludgeon against the Chinese government. During the UK's tenure of HK, there had never been a Governor (the chief political executive of HK government) that was elected. They were all appointed by the Parliament via the Royal Crown. Not only that, but the politicians were also largely hand-picked. The upper house of the legislature used to be all handpicked. Elections didn't really take hold until the 80s, and even then it was not full election for all seats.

In other words, universal suffrage was never a thing in HK during colonial rule, and the UK used the threat of fully democratizing HK against China during negotiations, as in, "well, I suppose if we don't get X, we might just have to implement full election before 1997 and then, oh dear, the HK citizens might come to expect that once the transitio takes place and that would just be a terrible headache for you, I fear. On dear." And to make good the threat, the UK began implementing elections in the early 80s and slowly ramping it up towards the 90s.

Then, in August, Beijing announced its plan for Hong Kong's 2017 elections. While citizens would be allowed to vote for the chief executive, the candidates for the election would have to be approved by a special committee just like the pro-Beijing committee that currently appoints the chief executive. This lets Beijing hand-pick candidates for the job, which is anti-democratic in itself, but also feels to many in Hong Kong like a first step toward eroding their promised democratic rights.

The freedom and democracy in HK have already been slowly eroded prior to this, most notably a couple years ago with the enactment of a law that says that if you hear seditious talk you are obligated to report it to the government. The freedom of the press has also been tightened up post 1997.

The other thing you have to understand is that the memory of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, in which the Chinese military mowed down 2,600 peaceful pro-democracy protesters in Beijing and other cities, looms awfully large in Hong Kong. While Hong Kong was unaffected by the massacre (it was under British rule at the time), the city holds an annual vigil in memory of the event, which has been so heavily censored in China itself that many young people have never heard of it.

The white-washing and suppression of the June 4 memorial has ebbed and flowed in the level of antagonism. HK people had always had organized, though underground, demonstrations and the government had always tried to disperse, disrupt, and then suppress the event. But yes, this has remained a sensitive spot that reminds HK citizens, once a year, how un-free they are.

In a more general sense, HK people had been very politically apathetic. Apart from a brief period of civil unrest in the 60s, in part fomented by the CCCP, HK people were less interested in politics than they were in the stock market. Money is king and all else takes second place. The people agitiating for more direct democracy in the early 80s were seen as wide-eyed idealists who probably flunked out of law school and had nothing better to do.

Until 1989.

It was a turning-point in HK politics, for a good reason. People first panicked, with waves of immigration (Toronto, Vancouver, Brisbane, Melbourne, Seattle, etc., can all attest to this). Following the panic came a galvinization of grass root activism. Political parties now actually had names and platforms. People thought about voting. The idea has actually taken roots.

Even still, the majority of HK people are "allergic to politics" and they're more likely to get upset at financial regulations than regulations on other aspects of their lives. The influx of mainland transplants post 1997 also brought a different attitude of political defeatism, i.e., "it's the CCCP man, what are you going to do that will make a difference?"

As for the prognosis, I can't say. The occupied district (Central and Admiralty) is the heart of the financial district in HK. I don't think the protests can last much longer without the big money stepping in to say "go protest somewhere else because we got money to make here." The logevity of the movement will also depend on whether they can gain support. The first protest on Sunday night was 60K, and the second protest Monday night was 80K. That's out of about 7.2 million people. So as a percentage, it is not that high. Given the SOP of CCCP, I am guessing some sort of violent ending is inevitableif the movement doesn't dissipate on its own (and I don't think it will - it may peter out but I don't think it will disappear on its own). They are now just figuring out what is a good pretext and how to minimize PR damage.

What would really blow up this powder keg would be for the former student leaders of June4, who have dispersed over the world, to come out and lend support. That would be a spit on the face of the CCCP and would most likely force them into a hard line response.

[TerraPrime]

Some news from Apple Daily, the liberal and anti-CCCP newspaper in HK:

- Police officials said 86 cannisters of tear gas had been used on the Sunday night protest

- video clips showed some the tear gas cannisters hitting marked first aid stations

- when asked why the police are using pepper sprays and tear gas against protesters, some answered that the plastic wrap that the protestors brought is a type of weapon (they brought it as defense against pepper sprays to the face)

- the riot control protocol in HK: first level, batons and pepper spray; second level, tear gas; third level, rubber bullet.

- the pepper spray being used are pumped from 5-gallon tanks, not your key-chain pepper spray

- it seems like the most active time is night and evening, possibly to minimize the disruption to the business activities of the day time

- students are participating, mostly college students but some high school students as well, but this was not like the June4 student movement

- no fatalities had been reported yet

[Ulthosian Stark]

This goes to show the type of communism practiced in China doesn't work very well in favor of the people, works quite well for the rich elite and corporations though

[TerraPrime]

China hasn't practiced communism since the early 80s. But, sure.

[Horza]

Works better if you think of Communism (aka Marxism-Leninism) not as an economic system but as a method of ordering the state.

[snake]

Student leaders are threatening to take over government buildings if Chun-ying doesn't resign. That could escalate things dramatically I think.

[TerraPrime]

The movement leaders need to escalate the events before the public stops showing up. The mainland government is actually quite restrained in response so far. Occupying government buildings will certainly make them readjust their tactics.

On a personal level, I see no hope of the Chinese government yielding. The issue is what the movement leaders will accept as "success." I think they are already signalling a way out for the government by demanding that CY resigns. This is an irrelevant demand in the grand scheme of universal suffrage since he's just the mouthpiece for mainland anyway. Changing a mouthpiece is not going to change the message. Everyone in HK knows this. So when we hear the demand of CY's resignation it is a gift to mainland so that they can "meet the demands" without losing control.

[The Notorious]

I respect the shit out of these HK protestors. They were organized (great job at cleaning up the protest sites and trash and recycle them even), determined (against a regime who used tanks and live ammunition against protestors before), respectful of law enforcement (there's a great pic of them holding umbrellas over a line of polices while both sides were facing off in the rain ..... seriously, this is the shit epic movies are made of), and respectful of other citizes (no looting or burning of properties).

The local government are promising to hold limited talk, most likely at the prodding of beijing, but I think their strategy is to wait the protestors out:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/world/asia/hong-kong-protests.html?_r=0

[snake]

I respect the shit out of these HK protestors. They were organized (great job at cleaning up the protest sites and trash and recycle them even), determined (against a regime who used tanks and live ammunition against protestors before), respectful of law enforcement (there's a great pic of them holding umbrellas over a line of polices while both sides were facing off in the rain ..... seriously, this is the shit epic movies are made of), and respectful of other citizes (no looting or burning of properties).

The local government are promising to hold limited talk, most likely at the prodding of beijing, but I think their strategy is to wait the protestors out:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/world/asia/hong-kong-protests.html?_r=0

That seems to be the plan. And with the announcement that talks will be held, quite a few of the protesters have departed. Also, CY has said he will not resign as he is busy getting ready for elections.

[Shryke]

I respect the shit out of these HK protestors. They were organized (great job at cleaning up the protest sites and trash and recycle them even), determined (against a regime who used tanks and live ammunition against protestors before), respectful of law enforcement (there's a great pic of them holding umbrellas over a line of polices while both sides were facing off in the rain ..... seriously, this is the shit epic movies are made of), and respectful of other citizes (no looting or burning of properties).

The local government are promising to hold limited talk, most likely at the prodding of beijing, but I think their strategy is to wait the protestors out:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/world/asia/hong-kong-protests.html?_r=0

Part of this, I think, is that the protesters are trying to keep up a good image so as not to turn the business interests in HK against them.

[Horza]

Doubt that's going to work for much longer -- business' tolerance of democracy is strained at the best of times.

Stating their intentions to seize buildings if CY Leung wasn't sacked doesn't look like a great gambit at the moment, it's given the police time to reinforce them and tied protestors to a course of action.

Not that there's a dizzying array of good options in front of these guys.

[Shryke]

Doubt that's going to work for much longer -- business' tolerance of democracy is strained at the best of times.

Stating their intentions to seize buildings if CY Leung wasn't sacked doesn't look like a great gambit at the moment, it's given the police time to reinforce them and tied protestors to a course of action.

Not that there's a dizzying array of good options in front of these guys.

Yeah, but business tolerance of Chinese interference is even more strained.

[Horza]

Yeah, but business tolerance of Chinese interference is even more strained.

Citation needed.

[Horza]

HKFS agrees to talk with the Hong Kong Government

Given that the talk offer was a pretty basic divide-and-rule play as it excluded Occupy Central and the building occupation threat looks to be scotched I suspect we're looking at a demarche.

[Horza]

News: counter-protestors getting pushy and shouty at Mongkok

Analysis: Hong Kong represents another form of Chineseness that sits uneasily with the mainland.

[Dinsdale!]

News: counter-protestors getting pushy and shouty at Mongkok

Analysis: Hong Kong represents another form of Chineseness that sits uneasily with the mainland.

From my friend (American) in Hong Kong:

Check the news. I'm at work watching live coverage of fighting between pro-democracy locals and thugs (who were probably sent from the mainland; they're being coordinated by a mandarin-speaking woman with a loudspeaker).

People stormed the protests earlier today. They tore apart protest camps. They attacked simultaneously.

Umbrellas are opening up. I don't know if it is because it is raining or not.

This feels like a scene from Mao II.

I have no idea what will happen in the next week. This could go in any direction.

China is going to use every tactic that can't be tied directly to them. They've sent violent provocateurs from the mainland. They released the first-ever iOS Trojan horse last week and used it to target protestors' phones. Chinese propaganda about foreign involvement is being repeated by Hongkongers.

Pro-democracy protestors still outnumber the provocateurs.

[The Iceman of the North]

So the talks between HKFS and the government have been cancelled.

[TerraPrime]

News on the ground, all unconfirmed, is that there is false flag operations going on. Agents believed to be from mainland and HK Police are dressing up like protesters and causing problems at Mongkok. It's difficult to confirm these allegations since the police aren't really investigating this. But it has been confirmed that some of the protesters arrested for causing troubles have triad backgrounds. Whether they were hired to false flag or not, remains controversial.