Trial by Folly: The Arianne Martell Reread Project [TWOW Arianne I spoilers]

[SeanF]

Thank you once again, Chebyshov, for an excellent reread. Prior to this, I'd subscribed to the majority view of Arianne being charismatic, charming, and completely irresponsible. Clearly, there's a good deal more to her than that,

Nonetheless, I do remain of the view that the original plot, to crown Myrcella in order to secure her birthright, was fraught with danger, and that she was lucky it ended as it did.

One thing that's readily apparent in this series, (and in real life) is that coups that are intended to be surgical strikes can rapidly turn into bloodbaths. Carsei and LF's coup in Kings Landing ought to have finished with Ned Stark being allowed to take the Black, in return for Robb and Catelyn swearing fealty to Joffrey. In fact, it resulted in the War of the Five Kngs. Tywin thought that Robb and his bodyguards would be killed at the Twins. The Red Wedding ended with the slaughter of 3,000 people, leaving the North thirsting for revenge. Theon's seizure of Winterfell finished up with the slaughter or enslavement of its inhabitants. None of these outcomes were intended, but once you resort to violence, it easily runs out of control.

It is just possible that crowning Myrcella could have resulted in Arianne ultimately being Princess of an independent Dorne. But, that would be a very very lucky outcome. Alternatives would be:-

1. No one important rallies to Arianne. The plot is stillborn. Doran is hugely embarrassed, and has to send Arianne to Kings Landing to be tried for treason.

2. Dorne is split. A civil war is fought between lords who rally to Arianne, and lords loyal to her father.

3. A Tyrell/Lannister army invades Dorne. Despite the Dornish skill in guerrilla warfare, previous invasions have led to massive loss of Dornish lives.

4. Arianne wins. Her more hot-headed partisans (say Obara, or Nymeria) think that Arianne's position is best secured by killing her father and brothers.

[Chebyshov]

Nonetheless, I do remain of the view that the original plot, to crown Myrcella in order to secure her birthright, was fraught with danger, and that she was lucky it ended as it did.

I don't disagree. We've talked a bit about this before (ya know...just a bit ;)), and I certainly don't view its outcome as a sure thing. I am, however, more optimistic than Doran or Illyrio about it.

What's more is that this was Arianne's best bet. Keep in mind what the risk of not acting would have been for Arianne (as she saw it): being replaced as heir to Dorne. And she had no reason to think to the contrary. The reason I'm such a...what did I call myself? "vociferous defender" of the QM plot is because not only was it a plot that played to the passions of the Dornish, but it was by far Arianne's best option. And even knowing that, even seeing how much opportunity there was with Myrcella, Arianne did not carry this out flippantly or hastily. Look what had to happen first, before she did anything:

• Joffrey's death, allowing for the ambiguity of succession given Myrcella's presence in Dorne: Oberyn tells his daughter(s) this would be kind of cool, gets passed on to Arianne, who sits on the information and waits
• Quentyn's trip to Essos: Arianne sees a very real and immediate threat to her position in Dorne; there's little else for her to do. She begins her seduction of Arys
• Oberyn's death: Dorne is inflamed, her cousins are pissed. Arianne, who by now has Arys in her pocket...arranges a feast for Doran. The crowd was so riled up she could have stuck a crown on Myrcella's head right there. But she didn't, she waited
• Sand Snakes arrested: Arianne now realizes Doran is willing to act against his own family. He can't arrest her for not having done anything yet, but if her cousins can be imprisoned, so can she
• Doran tells Arys he's taking Myrcella to the Water Gardens soon: this is when Arianne acts. When her only source of leverage is being taken away, and she realizes she's never going to have a better chance

Had it come to war, could it have been disastrous? Of course. At the least, it's highly likely some Dorishmen would have lost their lives, something Doran vehemently opposed. Yet in reflection on how his own plotting went, he's not so sure his inaction was the best call:

“Until the Mountain crushed my brother’s skull, no Dornishmen had died in this War of the Five Kings,” the prince murmured softly, as Hotah pulled a blanket over him. “Tell me, Captain, is that my shame or my glory?”

“That is not for me to say, my prince.”

“Every battle is a gamble, Snow. The man who does nothing also takes a risk.” No matter how fraught with danger the QM plot may have been, to not carry it out would have been a far greater risk from Arianne's perspective, given what she stood to lose. Now if only she and her father communicated over the years...

ETA: Out of curiosity, what would you guys have done in Arianne's position?

[SeanF]

“Every battle is a gamble, Snow. The man who does nothing also takes a risk.” No matter how fraught with danger the QM plot may have been, to not carry it out would have been a far greater risk from Arianne's perspective, given what she stood to lose. Now if only she and her father communicated over the years...

ETA: Out of curiosity, what would you guys have done in Arianne's position?

A fair question. From my comfortable, middle class, 21st century perspective, it seems selfish to run the risk of civil war, invasion, the deaths of hundreds if not thousands of people, simply in order to secure one's place on the Throne. Running such risks would be legitimate if the goal was to save Dorne from invasion, or Westeros from the Others.

However, the people we're dealing with have a different mindset. Arianne is being no more selfish in her actions than Stannis, Renly, Dany, Tyrion, or any other player of the Game of Thrones.

I think I would have tried to have it out with my father before planning a coup, however.

[Julia Martell]

I think I would have tried to have it out with my father before planning a coup, however.

Ideally yes. :wideeyed: But that's what makes it a Shakespearean flaw, they just COULDN'T communicate with each other.

I don't see how anyone can argue that Arianne should have been willing to just roll over and let herself be disinherited, especially not when there would be so many legal and cultural implications associated with it.

Yes, the whole thing was fraught with risk, and I don't believe for a second that there was a moment that she wasn't aware of that, but it had a good chance of achieving its objective, which was to force some kind of action from Doran.

And I still put most of the blame on him for letting her labour under her mistaken assumptions for so long, she's his child, even if she is an adult, and he has a responsibility to look after her and support her emotionally as well as physically. He should have done something about the obvious pain she was in for a decade other than shoving her in a preverbal corner.

[Chebyshov]

A fair question. From my comfortable, middle class, 21st century perspective, it seems selfish to run the risk of civil war, invasion, the deaths of hundreds if not thousands of people, simply in order to secure one's place on the Throne.

Keep in mind too, there were the elements of "justice for Oberyn" (something that was quite literally being screamed in the streets) as well as freeing her cousins, who she very much believed could be sentenced to execution. As Doran puts it to Obara, (paraphrasing) "what Arianne did she did as much for you as for herself. I would not be so quick to judge."

You're right that we have a very comfortable vantage point, and we can smartly say "the cost of revenge is high." But look at what the Lannisters did to his sister and her children....and Doran kind of sat on his hands for 17 years. And now his brother is dead too and the people are hollering for a fight. Had Arianne known "Doran's actually planning something less risky that is going to serve up the vengeance everyone wants," I doubt she would have acted. But again, MCDS™.

I don't see how anyone can argue that Arianne should have been willing to just roll over and let herself be disinherited, especially not when there would be so many legal and cultural implications associated with it.

Yeah, good point. She's worried about a Criston Cole campaign literally coming again. Plus she's seen what her dad had in mind for her "future": Walder Frey. Not only does she think that Doran wants her to be supplanted, but it's obvious to her that he doesn't even give a shit about her happiness. And what does Arianne think to do with him? "Let him live out his days in peace in his favorite spot in Dorne with no slights spoken against his person or honor." Of the many charges you can lay at Arianne's feet, "selfish" is not one of them.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Yeah, good point. She's worried about a Criston Cole campaign literally coming again. Plus she's seen what her dad had in mind for her "future": Walder Frey. Not only does she think that Doran wants her to be supplanted, but it's obvious to her that he doesn't even give a shit about her happiness. And what does Arianne think to do with him? "Let him live out his days in peace in his favorite spot in Dorne with no slights spoken against his person or honor." Of the many charges you can lay at Arianne's feet, "selfish" is not one of them.

Kinda "paralellish" to Rhaegar.

Aerys didn't trust him (allegedly), and instead of going and saying "fuck him. He's nuts. Make me King", he tries to make the change as subtle and peaceful as possible, even telling Jaime, "yes, I know my dad is mad as a march hare, but he's terrified to die, so, stay here to make him feel less scared".

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Kinda "paralellish" to Rhaegar.

Aerys didn't trust him (allegedly), and instead of going and saying "fuck him. He's nuts. Make me King", he tries to make the change as subtle and peaceful as possible, even telling Jaime, "yes, I know my dad is mad as a march hare, but he's terrified to die, so, stay here to make him feel less scared".

The parallel goes further. Rhaegar wasn't trusted by his father, as Arianne wasn't trusted by her father (the reasons of mistrust was quite different, though). Yet eventually, Aerys gave Rhaegar the command of his army, as Arianne receives the final say on Dorne's army in Winds.

(And the funny thing is, both Arianne and Rhaegar were plotting against their fathers, though again, for different reasons).

[JonCon's Red Beard]

(And the funny thing is, both Arianne and Rhaegar were plotting against their fathers, though again, for different reasons).

Not so different. Despite I think Aerys's mistrust of Rhaegar is a biiiiit exaggerated in TWOIAF, there is a chance they both suffered from the Martell Communication Deficiency Syndrome™ (they're part Martell, after all*) and Rhaegar could have believed his father was indeed ready to put him aside and he needed to be King to "save the world". Arianne has also believed her father to be weak, which she considers to be detrimental for Dorne. Rhaegar eventually realised his father's state was going to kill them all.

*He locked himself in a tower for almost one whole year... he definitely does.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Not so different. Despite I think Aerys's mistrust of Rhaegar is a biiiiit exaggerated in TWOIAF, there is a chance they both suffered from the Martell Communication Deficiency Syndrome™ (they're part Martell, after all*) and Rhaegar could have believed his father was indeed ready to put him aside and he needed to be King to "save the world". Arianne has also believed her father to be weak, which she considers to be detrimental for Dorne. Rhaegar eventually realised his father's state was going to kill them all.

*He locked himself in a tower for almost one whole year... he definitely does.

Hmm, true.. It would depend on how much Aerys was expressing leaning towards naming Viserys his heir, instead of Rhaegar..

[SeanF]

The comparison with Rhaegar is an interesting one. Aerys, unlike Doran, was a paranoid schizophrenic, whose lickspittles were constantly working on him. I think there's a good chance that Aerys would have just snapped, and burned Rhaegar before his court, at some point. At the same time, many of the nobility wanted Rhaegar to overthrow his father. But, I suspect some were sick of the Targaryens, and intended to take down Rhaegar with his father. I imagine Rhaegar must have been increasingly desperate as the 280s wore on.

Arianne doesn't fear that her father will kill her (until she's held prisoner). But, she certainly fears disinheritance (which could result in a ruthless sibling killing her). So, I accept there's a considerable element of self-defence in her plot. But why can't she and her father argue? Doran isn't Aerys.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Well, in Arianne's case, there was some plotting involved, although that didn't involved disinherit Arianne. Let's say Doran and Oberyn were actually working for Dorne, and in a way, they were also involving Arianne in the plan, even though they didn't tell her (she was going to be the Queen).

In Aerys' case, there was some plotting, but not for the good of the Realm. We have Tywin on one side (who wanted to make Rhaegar king), and on the other, Aerys' council whose only concern was -apparently- themselves. They wanted Viserys as King because a young Viserys could be easily manipulable. Tywin wanted Rhaegar because he probably thought he could have influenced him, and there is no hints on Rhaegar having him under a bad light (although the whole "let's Aerys die, who cares?" and bringing Cersei to court could have make him change his mind about him). Yet, there is no way to know how much of that division in the Council was caused by Tywin. Whether Rhaegar was crowned, or Viserys, Tywin knew (or hoped) he would be called as King. And, I doubt Tywin was not involved. As the saying goes, "shaken river, gain for the fishers".

Let's say that here, their parallels kinda cross each other. Arianne thought her father wished her wrong, when he wanted to make her a Queen. Rhaegar thought Tywin was harmless, when in fact, he was waiting for his wife to die to give him another one, or make him King so he could use it.

[Chebyshov]

Random thought, but I was wondering what you guys thought of Doran's "I dare more than you dream... but leave that for the nonce."

Doran says this when he still thinks Arianne rebelled just for vengeance (and maybe for her cousins). Do you think he would have come clean about everything without her confession about the letter?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Random thought, but I was wondering what you guys thought of Doran's "I dare more than you dream... but leave that for the nonce."

Doran says this when he still thinks Arianne rebelled just for vengeance (and maybe for her cousins). Do you think he would have come clean about everything without her confession about the letter?

Not until he had reason to trust her.. it's quite the secret he's got...

But that sentence is indeed interesting.

Prince Lewyn had been a confidant of Rhaegar, and while I still dislike the idea that Elia was aware of Rhaegars plans with Lyanna, or even supported it (I really still can't believe that), I do think it might be possible that Doran was in on the plans of overthrowing Aerys.

Indeed, his anger following the tourney at Harrenhal might therefore not only have been because of Elia's treatment, but because before the tourney, there was a promise of Elia becoming queen, while during/after the tourney, Elia was slighted, and you could argue that Doran believed her position to be in danger.

Doran plotted against Robert I/Joffrey I/Tommen I, it isn't so difficult to think he might have been in on the plotting against Aerys..

[Mal Malenkirk]

Possible questions for discussion:

-Why did Martin set “The Soiled Knight” from Arys’s POV? What did it serve other than providing us with the male-gaze for that scene?

Way late to the party, but my answer to this question is simple: The author wanted a greater impact on the reader from Arianne's failed coup.

Arys and his charge are the only direct victims of Arianne's coup. Arys dies and the girl he was sworn to protect is mutilated.

Doesn't that hit harder because we've seen a sympathetic POV from Arys? It'd be much easier to sweep under the rug for the readerwithout it. That chapter prevented Arys from being just a red shirt. No one cares if Kirk gets a red shirt killed, but if he gets Scotty killed, that gets readers thinking and questioning.

[Chebyshov]

Doesn't that hit harder because we've seen a sympathetic POV from Arys? It'd be much easier to sweep under the rug for the reader if it wasn't. That chapter prevented him from being just a red shirt. No one cares if Kirk gets a red shirt killed, but if he gets Scotty killed, that gets readers thinking and questioning.

Más vale tarde que nunca. That's a good point about unknown vs. known and its impact. It's weird, in a way I hate that Arys introduced us to Arianne with his sort of...voyeuristic yet moralizing lens. But in another way I'm happy, because think of the conspiracies it saved us from. If he had been more opaque to us I can only guess the reasons everyone would come up with for his suicide charge.

Not until he had reason to trust her.. it's quite the secret he's got...

But that sentence is indeed interesting.

Prince Lewyn had been a confidant of Rhaegar, and while I still dislike the idea that Elia was aware of Rhaegars plans with Lyanna, or even supported it (I really still can't believe that), I do think it might be possible that Doran was in on the plans of overthrowing Aerys.

Indeed, his anger following the tourney at Harrenhal might therefore not only have been because of Elia's treatment, but because before the tourney, there was a promise of Elia becoming queen, while during/after the tourney, Elia was slighted, and you could argue that Doran believed her position to be in danger.

Doran plotted against Robert I/Joffrey I/Tommen I, it isn't so difficult to think he might have been in on the plotting against Aerys..

I'd buy it. Especially because of Doran's concern being for the lives of all, not the needs of a few.

And I think it's pretty clear Rhaegar was going to be much better for the realm, especially if Doran was getting reports from his uncle saying as much (likley).

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I wouldn't consider Rhaegar taking the throne as "plotting": I mean, it is, but.. it's not like he's some random nobody trying to usurp Aerys. He was the next in line, the throne was meant to be his by right at any moment. It's simply "moving forward the succession"...

Also, everyone with a brain knew that Aerys was not fit to rule. And Doran has a brain.

[Mal Malenkirk]

Más vale tarde que nunca.

Mieux vaut tard que jamais.

Funny, I didn't know spanish had a word for word translation for that expression.

And I think it's pretty clear Rhaegar was going to be much better for the realm, especially if Doran was getting reports from his uncle saying as much (likley).

Meh. Better relative to a paranoid madman, maybe.

Whatever Rhaegar's exact motivations were for handling the Lyanna elopement the way he did, it was not the for good of the realm. I doubt the kind of man who takes that kind of decision is truly ruler material. Who knows what other disjuncted notions he could cook up over the years if he ruled?

But I can buy that other Lord Paramounts saw Rhaegar's as some kind of lifejacket in the coming storm that was Aerys' growing madness and made some plans accordingly. Especially someone as methodical as Doran. How disappointed they must have been to see Rhaegar suddenly pull a stunt as mad as anything his father could have dreamed!

[Mal Malenkirk]

ETA: Out of curiosity, what would you guys have done in Arianne's position?

I would have talked to my father! Years ago!

If she was so damn insecure of her position, she could have waited until she was getting known and popular around Sunspear and therefore gained some political capital or her own but she should have talked to her father at least three or four years ago.

Her plot had a high likelyhood of costing the life of a little girl that was looking up to her which I find apalling. It doesn't make her a villain by the standards set in that serie (Though it would it many Soap Opera!), but it's still awful. And it had a high likelyhood of snowballing into unforeseen conflicts, beyond the obvious.

The Seven Kingdom were not suddenly changing their rules of succession just to humor Dorne so every non-Donish family who had a eldest daughter married to a dornish Lord would now be worried that the lord would make claim on their lands on the basis that they married their 'heir'. Conversely, any noble family outisde Dorne who had brought in a Dornish woman who then had a daughter as firstborn would be nervous. Knowing human nature, with Arianne's example leading the way, I bet some lords and ladies would start pressing claims left and right based on her precedent. Who knows what that could lead to.

IIRC, the hundred years war started when the King of England claimed he was now the ruler of France through his french mother who was the eldest daughter of a previous French king. The then current french king (Charles) was named following rules that disqualified women from the line of succession. The King of England (Edward III) said 'sure women count in the line of succession, that means I'm king of France!'

And fun times for all. For over a hundred years. That's what happens when you mix and match succession rules in a time and place where people take those rights dead serious.

[Chebyshov]

I would have talked to my father! Years ago!

And what if she was right about his wish to replace her (which she had no reason to think the contrary)? Not only does she have to verbalize something incredibly painful and face the ultimate rejection, but her telling him puts her in the incredibly vulnerable position where he knows what she knows and now she’ll have no chance to defend herself.

If she was so damn insecure of her position, she could have waited until she was getting known and popular around Sunspear and therefore gained some political capital or her own but she should have talked to her father at least three or four years ago.

She was known and popular around Sunspear and was incredibly popular, which is why she acted when she did and felt that many would rally to her cause. Even Hotah had a similar appraisal of the political situation. Plus the surrounding circumstances that forced her hand into acting. As for “she should have talked to him,” see my comment from before. Also, I think it’s very emotionally real to respond to hurt like this, especially from someone you love. Say what you will about the Doran/Arianne relationship, but it’s not lacking in its realism. I think it’s probably the most fleshed out parent/child relationship in the story.

Her plot had a high likelyhood of costing the life of a little girl that was looking up to her which I find apalling. It doesn't make her a villain by the standards set in that serie (Though it would it many Soap Opera!), but it's still awful. And it had a high likelyhood of snowballing into unforeseen conflicts, beyond the obvious.

See, the problem with unforeseen conflicts is that they were just that. In Arianne’s view, which was probably a touch quixotic, Myrcella would not be harmed. She saw this as having a high probability of working, and frankly I find Illyrio and Doran’s appraisals of the situation to be overly pessimistic.

There’s not much more I can say that hasn’t been said, so I’ll leave you with my defense of the QM plot in general:

Arianne’s Queenmaker plot is highly criticized by herself, Doran, and the fandom, along with other characters who criticize aspects of it (except Obara who thought it was nifty). As one of the QM’s most vociferous defenders, I’d like to take this moment to explain why it was actually a very smart and careful plan.

As I hope I’ve hammered home by now, Arianne learned of Doran’s “intentions” nine years ago:

I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten… My father’s words, written in his own hand. They burned themselves into my memory. I cried myself to sleep that night, and many nights thereafter.

It’s not clear at what point she began formulating her plan, but we do see Arianne attempt to seduce Renly when she is “half a girl,” suggesting around 16 (given Westerosi coming-of-age standards):

One year King Robert’s brother came to visit and she did her best to seduce him, but she was half a girl and Lord Renly seemed more bemused than inflamed by her overtures.

We also made note of her attempt to sneak into The Reach to meet Willas. After she was caught, “that same year,” Doran tried to betroth her to Ben Beesbury, a blind, toothless, octogenarian.

Arianne’s plan is unique in that the first few years of it, she was still trying to figure out where she fell and if she was correct in her concerns. It’s clear that at as time elapsed, Arianne became more and more sure of her father’s intentions to set her aside. Yet she didn’t act. Even two years prior to the events of AFFC, when Doran left for the Water Gardens and her official charge was feasts and frolics, she did nothing.

In fact, her first proactive move in the QM plot-proper (rather than Operation Sneak Into Highgarden) came when Myrcella and Arys were sent to Dorne, much in advance of Oberyn and Joffrey’s deaths. Arianne worked to get Ser Arys in her pocket:

Her seduction of Ser Arys had required half a year.

This post from the reread by Rhaenys_Targaryen suggests that the start of Arianne’s seduction coincided with her receiving news about Quentyn’s departure. Even if the seduction was slightly before the Planky Town report, Arianne seeing the potential value in Arys for her own cause shows incredibly foresight and resourcefulness.

Joffrey’s death allowed for the political ambiguity of inheritance, given Myrcella’s presence in Dorne. Myrcella inheriting over Tommen is a concept that we first hear Oberyn float to Tyrion, and later reiterated as originating with the Red Viper from Tyene:

“War,” said Tyene, “though not my sister’s war. Dornishmen fight best at home, so I say let us hone our spears and wait. When the Lannisters and the Tyrells come down on us, we shall bleed them in the passes and bury them beneath the blowing sands, as we have a hundred times before.”

“If they should come down on us.”

“Oh, but they must, or see the realm riven once more, as it was before we wed the dragons. Father told me so. He said we had the Imp to thank, for sending us Princess Myrcella. She is so pretty, don’t you think? I wish that I had curls like hers. She was made to be a queen, just like her mother.” Dimples bloomed in Tyene’s cheeks. “I would be honored to arrange the wedding, and to see to the making of the crowns as well. Trystane and Myrcella are so innocent, I thought perhaps white gold... with emeralds, to match Myrcella’s eyes. Oh, diamonds and pearls would serve as well, so long as the children are wed and crowned. Then we need only hail Myrcella as the First of Her Name, Queen of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and lawful heir to the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros, and wait for the lions to come.”

It’s not a leap to suggest that Tyene shared this idea with Arianne, seeing as Arianne stuck her in the Doran’s solar to tell it to the prince at the beginning of AFFC.

Arianne doesn’t set out to crown Myrcella right after Joffrey’s death, or even after Oberyn’s, which results in an inflamed Dorne that is ready for a fight:

The Red Viper’s death had inflamed the Dornish even more, though the streets had quieted a bit since Prince Doran had confined the Sand Snakes to a tower.

__

“The prince is dead!” a woman shrilled behind him.

“To spears!” a man bellowed from a balcony.

“Doran!” called some highborn voice. “To the spears!”

Hotah gave up looking for the speakers; the press was too thick, and a third of them were shouting. “To spears! Vengeance for the Viper!” By the time they reached the third gate, the guards were shoving people aside to clear a path for the prince’s litter, and the crowd was throwing things. One ragged boy darted past the spearmen with a half-rotten pomegranate in one hand, but when he saw Areo Hotah in his path, with longaxe at the ready, he let the fruit fall unthrown and beat a quick retreat. Others farther back let fly with lemons, limes, and oranges, crying “War! War! To the spears!” One of the guards was hit in the eye with a lemon, and the captain himself had an orange splatter off his foot.

No, despite things Arianne does not act until two more very specific things happened:

• The Sand Snakes were imprisoned, demonstrating Doran’s willingness to lock-up family members who dare oppose him
• Doran tells Arys (who then passes it along to Arianne) about his plans to take Myrcella and Arys back to the Water Gardens in a fortnight, taking away any leverage Arianne might have had

  “My apologies, ser,” Prince Doran said. “I am frail and failing, and sometimes... Sunspear wearies me, with its noise and dirt and smells. As soon as my duty allows, I mean to return to the Water Gardens. When I do I shall take Princess Myrcella with me.”

If it were not for those two events, as well as Oberyn’s death inciting Dorne and Quentyn sneaking to Essos, which Arianne interprets as the beginning of the campaign to remove her, she would not have set out to crown Myrcella. So not only do we see Arianne strategizing for 9 years, but even once a very good opportunity presents itself (Myrcella in Dorne after Joffrey’s death), Arianne is careful and reluctant to act until she feels she has to. Her use of Dorne’s newly revived bellicosity also demonstrates her resourcefulness.

I also want to make the quick point that the outcome of crowning Myrcella may not have been as disastrous as Doran (or Illyrio) felt. Here’s what Doran says to Arianne about how he felt the plan would go:

“... you would have crowned Myrcella queen, to raise a rebellion against her brother. Instead of an ear, she would have lost her life.”

“Only if we lost.”

“If? The word is when. Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms. It pleased the Young Dragon to make all our armies larger when he wrote that book of his, so as to make his conquest that much more glorious, and it has pleased us to water the seed he planted and let our foes think us more powerful than we are, but a princess ought to know the truth. Valor is a poor substitute for numbers. Dorne cannot hope to win a war against the Iron Throne, not alone. And yet that may well be what you have given us. Are you proud?”

First of all, I want to quickly point out that Doran never gets into the specifics of Dornish troop numbers. In fact, Rhaenys_Targaryen suggests]http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/118253-dornish-debates-iii-of-kings-and-courts/?p=6328235]suggests that Dorne could have 50,000 spears. Secondly, Doran is assuming that the fight would be Dorne against the rest of the Seven Kingdoms, which we know is hardly a united force at the moment. Thirdly, I think Doran is being a touch pessimistic about Dorne’s odds here. Their use of guerrilla warfare allowed Dorne to withstand dragons in their past. If all of Dorne rallied to Myrcella’s cause, I think they at the very least would be able to negotiate peace-terms with the Iron Throne, such as Dornish Independence in exchange for returning Myrcella. Arianne’s group of co-conspirators included two knights, who probably talked to her about the military angle of the campaign. She even thinks to herself about how she may utilize Darkstar:

Once I crown Myrcella and free the Sand Snakes, all Dorne will rally to my banners. The Yronwoods might declare for Quentyn, but alone they were no threat. If they went over to Tommen and the Lannisters, she would have Darkstar destroy them root and branch.

This suggests that Arianne gave the military logistics some thought, though likely would defer to experienced warriors to lead the cause once the banners were called. Also keep in mind that Doran never taught Arianne any of this. His “a princess should know better,” is just as much a reflection on him as it is on her.

Maybe Arianne was too optimistic (though I assert that Doran is too pessimistic) about the outcome, but the point is I don’t think disaster was certain for Dorne here, not with the current political climate. The other thing is, if Arianne hadn’t acted, what was her alternative? To be set aside? Yes, her assumptions proved to be incorrect, but given the information she had at the time, along with the lack of communication Doran offered, there was nothing else for Arianne to think. The QM was a risk, though it was a surer bet than some campaigns we’ve seen in ASOIAF. And doing nothing was an even greater risk for her (and coincidentally a risk Doran took that almost cost him everything). The QM plot demonstrates Arianne’s strategic thinking, long-term planning, and overall pragmatism, acting only when she felt she had to.

Plus, as Julia Martell said a few posts ago, "I don't see how anyone can argue that Arianne should have been willing to just roll over and let herself be disinherited, especially not when there would be so many legal and cultural implications associated with it."

[Mal Malenkirk]

And what if she was right about his wish to replace her (which she had no reason to think the contrary)? Not only does she have to verbalize something incredibly painful and face the ultimate rejection, but her telling him puts her in the incredibly vulnerable position where he knows what she knows and now she’ll have no chance to defend herself.

Actually, in the fiction she had built in her head, if she confronts her father, she corners him. He wasn't ready to disinherit her or else he would have done it already. Quentyn is but a young teen when Arianne is 19 or 20. She has started to garner support from various noble at that point. The longer she waits, the more this supposed scheme is garnering support and becomes dangerous.

She corners her father and tell him she saw the letter and tell him she wants him to confirm her publicly as her heir. What did she think Doran could do if pressed? Declare there and then to Sunspear that he, one of the less charismatic prince in recent memory, was breaking tradition and naming as heir a young man that the other nobles barely knew? If so, the game is on and it's a race for support, one Doran is far from certain of winning, especially if Arianne already laid out the ground work.

She could get Oberyn support first if she's that scared of confronting her father because it hurts.

But by the way, if you plan to rule, you better be ready for some difficult discussions where hurt feelings are sometime the best possible outcome. The history of dynasties is full of ruler who had to make decisions that harmed the interests of their relatives. I'm sure Louis the XIV wasn't thrilled when he had to pretty much put his mother under house arrest (for all intent and purposes) to keep her out of politics, for example. Can't have been a super fun discussion. But to rule, you need to need to be able to do these things.

I notice how you didn't touch my argument that mixing and matching succession laws has a high risk of invoking a clusterfuck similar to the hundred years war... I wouldn't call these unforeseen, it's a nigh certainty some ambitious nobles will use this precedent to further their interest, it's just human nature. If we start claiming Myrcella is the true ruler of the 7K based on Dornish law, who knows how many dornish lords are married to a woman from a family outside of Dorne that could now claim their wife is the heir of some juicy piece of real estate. This alone was going to turn into a mess, not even accounting for the specific Lannister-Martell conflict.