Ebola part 3: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON'T PANIC!

[TerraPrime]

This lack of urgency in getting enough people on the ground makes me wonder if they've actually throw in the towel in getting control through traditional means, like quarantine, contact tracing, and proper burial.

That's my impression. I think last week it was that some of the stations had stopped taking in patients and instead had started issuing protective gears to the families who bring in patients and sending them away. I think the disease has already sapped the resources of these countries and I am not surpised, given that it had started circa Dec of last year. I am not sure where the critical tipping point is but I am skeptical that even the infusion of U.S. aid to build temp field stations for housing patients will be sufficient to contain.

[Fragile Bird]

.... given that it had started circa Dec of last year.

Sorry, nit-picking here, but I do want to point out again that while the first, traced, case was in December last year, they didn't get a diagnosis of Ebola until the end of March.

If the spread of the disease can be restricted to Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, and so far other countries have stopped the spread, I'd say that was pretty good. Pretty shitty for those in the three countries, of course, but very important to stop things at their borders.

[Mudguard]

Sorry, nit-picking here, but I do want to point out again that while the first, traced, case was in December last year, they didn't get a diagnosis of Ebola until the end of March.

If the spread of the disease can be restricted to Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, and so far other countries have stopped the spread, I'd say that was pretty good. Pretty shitty for those in the three countries, of course, but very important to stop things at their borders.

If the international community fails to send in the necessary personnel and lets the number of infected reach the hundreds of thousands, which will likely happen if we don't step things up in a big way very, very soon, then I'd say we did a terrible, disgraceful job. Really, it's a disgrace that the personnel isn't already there, even after months of knowing that things were out of control and would require international intervention. Everyone knows that each week of delay makes things exponentially harder, yet the response appears to remain woefully inadequate.

And how long can ebola be contained within those three countries if the number of infected rises from 10,000, where it currently stands, to 100,000 or 1,000,000? It's in the world's best interest to get this controlled well before it reaches 100,000 or 1,000,000.

[Zar Lannister]

Well, my home-turf joined the list of countries restricting travel.

We aren't exactly a connecting flight hub.

My best guess is that, given the drama caused by the guy who decided to pull make the worst joke ever claiming he was sick in an arriving flight from Philly two weeks ago, it's is probably a measure lobbied by the hospitality sector.

[Fragile Bird]

So far the neighboring countries have all controlled any Ebola outbreak. And as has been discussed up thread, it's unliky Ebola will reach those stratospheric levels because it will kill off the locals and stop, which has beeN the pattern in the past.

[Zar Lannister]

Oh, and Bentley is ebola free. So that's good news too.

edit: he needs to be tested again on Nov 1st to confirm, though.

[Mudguard]

So far the neighboring countries have all controlled any Ebola outbreak. And as has been discussed up thread, it's unliky Ebola will reach those stratospheric levels because it will kill off the locals and stop, which has beeN the pattern in the past.

The population of the three countries is around 20 million. Left unchecked, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that infection of 10% of the population is possible, which would mean 2 million infected. I don't see any reasonable basis for the assumption that this outbreak is going to just die out by itself.

[Pendergraft]

Fear-bola just hit my city http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?_r=0 lets see if they handle this in an efficient way. Hopefully with all the preparation, drills and protocols no one gets infected.

[Fragile Bird]

Ebola is still difficult to catch. Go look up the comments of the doctor who was the co-discoverer of Ebola, who said the WHO got the first numbers wrong, underestimated, and likely have the future numbers greatly overestimated. There's a link somewhere...

Posting because I just heard Paul Allen, one of the founders of Microsoft, has decided to bump up his donation to the Ebola campaign up from $25 M to $100M, which is just fantastic.

[Mudguard]

Ebola is still difficult to catch. Go look up the comments of the doctor who was the co-discoverer of Ebola, who said the WHO got the first numbers wrong, underestimated, and likely have the future numbers greatly overestimated. There's a link somewhere...

Posting because I just heard Paul Allen, one of the founders of Microsoft, has decided to bump up his donation to the Ebola campaign up from $25 M to $100M, which is just fantastic.

I think 1 million by January is very unlikely, even if we continue to do nothing, unless there is currently massive underreporting and the number of infected is actually much greater than 10,000. The higher estimates also assume that we don't do anything more than what we were already doing, that is we don't increase the number of workers and don't increase the amount of supplies. A couple months ago, I wouldn't believe that we'd still be so far behind. My guess is that the people who asserted that the higher end number were unlikely were assuming that we'd actually mount a serious response, and not just wait it out.

[Commodore]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?smid=tw-bna

@nytimes

Breaking News: Patient in New York City Tests Positive for Ebola

[Mudguard]

First case of ebola reported in Mali, which borders Guinea.

The first case of Ebola in Mali has been confirmed, the West African country's health minister said Thursday evening. The announcement made on Malian state television by Ousmane Kone said that the patient was a 2-year-old girl who had come from neighboring Guinea. The child was brought to a hospital in the Malian town of Kayes on Wednesday, and her blood sample tested positive for the virus.

Transmission of ebola outside of the three main countries is only going to increase if we don't increase our efforts in West Africa.

[The Fallen]

Fear-bola just hit my city http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?_r=0 lets see if they handle this in an efficient way. Hopefully with all the preparation, drills and protocols no one gets infected.

Yeah. There was an article last week that made NYC a likely place for Ebola to show up because of it's large W. African population and doctors returning from the region.

It will be interesting to see how Mayor De Blasio's administration handles this.

[Altherion]

New York City is a really bad place for this to happen because it's extremely dense and there are many, many people using public transportation. It makes any sort of tracing virtually impossible. I do not understand why they didn't quaranteen or at least extensively test somebody who came from West Africa and most definitely had contact with infected people and needed to wait for symptoms to show up.

[Relic]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?smid=tw-bna

He was at The Gutter, which is 10 blocks from my apartment. Thank God he didn't go to the other bowling alley which is also a music venue and can hold up to like a thousand people.

[TerraPrime]

This part:

Dr. Spencer began to feel sluggish on Tuesday but did not develop a fever until Thursday morning, he told the authorities. At 11 a.m., the doctor found that he had a 103-degree temperature and alerted the staff of Doctors Without Borders, according to the official.

Makes me want to scream.

You're a doctor. You knew the risk and the symptoms. When you feel sluggish and fatiqued, while in the midst of possible incubation period, why, oh why, did you not start self-imposed quarantine? And unless the doctor told me that he had been taking twice-a-day temperature monitoring, I absolutely do not believe that he had no fever Wednesday night.

Good grief.

I hope whichever hospital took him in at NYC will do a much better job than they did at Dallas Health Presbyterian.

[kairparavel]

This part:

Makes me want to scream.

You're a doctor. You knew the risk and the symptoms. When you feel sluggish and fatiqued, while in the midst of possible incubation period, why, oh why, did you not start self-imposed quarantine? And unless the doctor told me that he had been taking twice-a-day temperature monitoring, I absolutely do not believe that he had no fever Wednesday night.

Good grief.

I hope whichever hospital took him in at NYC will do a much better job than they did at Dallas Health Presbyterian.

Thank you.

I had much of the same reaction.

[Fragile Bird]

Well, doctors are God, are they not? Even if they work for MSF. Or maybe especially if they work for MSF. (a group I love and donate to, btw)

[TerraPrime]

Let me clarify:

I absolutely admire Dr. Spencer's dedication to go over to Guinea and help with the Ebola outbreak. I think it's noble and praise-worthy.

I also think that given his expertise and his experience and his first-hand witness of the possible outcome, it seems monumentally imcomprehensible that he would ignore the signs of sluggishness and fatique that started on Tuesday, which would be 8 days past his departure from Guinea. Maybe he had been away from the frontline a few weeks prior to his departure and then thought that he's out of the incubation period? That's possible. I am not suggesting that he should have turned himself in to the hospital on Tues or even Wed, but I think erring on the side of caution would have dictated that he stayed home, monitor his temperature regularly (every 6 hrs), and limit his contact with the outside world until the fatique rides itself out.

[Mudguard]

This initial response has looked good so far, so I'm pretty sure that they'll handle things properly. I wonder though if they are planning on treating him in NY, or will transfer him to one of the four specialist hospitals. Unless they have highly trained staff on hand, I would feel better if they transferred him.

I think this might be the new normal, a case popping up in the US periodically, until the situation in West Africa is resolved. Actually, as things rapidly get worse in Africa, we should expect even more cases to pop up and with greater frequency, in the US and other countries.