Jon and Mance's relationship is completely ridiculous

[Mithras]

Castle Black was the safest place that Mance could have hoped to pass 100k people and their animals/stuff south of the Wall. Other ends of the Wall would be too risky.

[sj4iy]

This is a very unfortunate post for a person who claims to be a Jon fan. Seriously. I see such posts from irrational Jon haters. You need to read more.

Oh, jesus. In other threads, I've been called a Jon-sympathizer...now I'm being called a Jon-hater. I'll never understand why people can't have an intelligent debate about something without resorting to insults and name-calling if they truly want their position to be taken seriously.

And I do need to read more...I'm very behind on my reading list. Good thing I've already read ASOIAF several times and have marked it off that list, though :P

1. Mance did not have 100k men. All the people he brought back amounted to 100k but his fighting force was significantly smaller than that number.

...did I say all of them were fighters? No. But that doesn't mean they can't throw everything they have at the wall with what they do have. Because they all will die otherwise. Let me repeat that. All of them will die if they don't get beyond the Wall. If Mance needs children, the elderly and infirm to fight, then that's what he should do...the NW is. If Mance has several different plans of attack (which he clearly says that he does), then he should be implementing them all at the same time. It's stupid to do one at a time while giving your enemy the time to build up their defenses. Had Mance attacked East Watch, the Shadow Tower, and Castle Black all at the same time that his southern raiders attacked Castle Black, all the while digging out the gates of abandoned castles along the Wall, then the NW would have fallen in just a few days...long before Stannis made it. He claims that he doesn't do it because the NW will 'bleed him'. Well, the Others will destroy ALL of them, so worrying about casualties at the hands of the NW is just plain stupid when you could throw everything you have at them all at once. Even if it's only 40k people who can fight (which is a likely number), then that still outnumbers the NW by a lot.

2. Jon didnot take the charge of the Wall until Donal Noye died. Aemon gave the charge to Jon after Donal's death and all Jon did was to inspire courage and lead the men. That didnot require him to be at full health.

Jon did an excellent job after he was given command, despite his injury. That doesn't mean I think it's believable that Noye gave him the command, though. Why? Because he was 16 (or 17) years old, injured, had absolutely no leadership experience at all, and many of the men still believed that he was a turncloak. He has just returned from the Wildlings...why would they trust him?

Take this quote:

A couple of them saw Jon looking down from atop the King’s Tower and waved up at him. Others turned away. They still think me a turncloak. That was a bitter draft to drink, but Jon could not blame them. He was a bastard, after all. Everyone knew that bastards were wanton and treacherous by nature, having been born of lust and deceit. And he had made as many enemies as friends at Castle Black...

Now, take this quote:

For a moment Jon thought he had misheard. It had sounded as if Noye were leaving him in command. “My lord?”

“Lord? I’m a blacksmith. I said, the Wall is yours.”

There are older men, Jon wanted to say, better men. I am still as green as summer grass. I’m wounded, and I stand accused of desertion.

Even Jon himself is SHOCKED that Noye would put him in charge. There are older men and better men, he even admits, but Noye picks him. It's not realistic, imo.

Really, the problem is that Jon isn't cleared of desertion before all of this happens. In the show, they do that in episode 1, so that by the time you get to episode 9, Jon has already led a successful ranging, trained new recruits and helped shore up Castle Black against the upcoming battle. He has time to become a real leader- he's not thrown into it for plot convenience.

3. Only Janos and Thorne thought that Jon is a traitor and that can tell you something.

Your timing is off. See above- when Noye put Jon in charge, Jon had just returned from being with the Wildlings. Other than his friends, the rest would have no reason to trust him at that point. And he admits that he's made a lot of enemies there, as well, so I seriously doubt it's "only Janos and Thorne". Bowen Marsh isn't even Jon's enemy at that point, and he takes him off duty for fear he's a turncloak when he returns.

4. The election is not unbelievable. It is perfect. They were all walking on a thin sheet of ice and Aemon had to intervene to give the job to Jon so that they are all saved.

The election is unbelievable because I see no way that Jon gets 2/3rds of a popular vote when there are older and more qualified men without any questions about their loyalty running against him.

Also, Aemon does nothing at all- Sam is the one who pulls strings...and even then, it takes a deus ex machina (Mormont's raven) to sway the election.

About Mance's so called "idiocy". That is BS. Mance's plan was very good and he was going to succeed if not for Stannis. Mance also could have never anticipated that Jon could escape from the Thenns alive and warn the NW. That is where George used his authority to save Jon.

Mance's plan would have succeeded if he had implemented all of the different ones at once and overwhelmed the NW quickly before Stannis had a chance to get there.

And if Mance didn't 'anticipate' Jon trying to escape to warn the NW, then he truly is a fool...especially since he decides to send him over the Wall right after he finds out that Jon has lied to him about the NW's ranging.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Even Jon himself is SHOCKED that Noye would put him in charge. There are older men and better men, he even admits, but Noye picks him. It's not realistic, imo.

Do you mean the Alzheimer guy, the deaf guy or the retard?

Please name those older and better men. They are not at Castle Black.

[sj4iy]

Do you mean the Alzheimer guy, the deaf guy or the retard?

Please name those older and better men. They are not at Castle Black.

Jon must know them, since HE was the one who said so.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Jon must know them, since HE was the one who said so.

That's called a low self-esteem.

Because we witness these guys later. There are none. After Noye's death, Grenn and Pip are basically the best leadership material apart from Jon.

[sj4iy]

That's called a low self-esteem.

No, it's call 'honesty'.

Because we witness these guys later. There are none. After Noye's death, Grenn and Pip are basically the best leadership material apart from Jon.

What about Red Alyn of the Rosewood? Or Mully? There are definitely other men there that could have taken command in Noye's absence.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Leadership material? No. They're worse than Grenn or Pip in that regard. Because we know who Jon put in charge.

[sj4iy]

Leadership material? No. They're worse than Grenn or Pip in that regard. Because we know who Jon put in charge.

How exactly do you know that either of those two can't lead?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

How exactly do you know that either of those two can't lead?

Because Jon didn't put them in charge, he put Pyp and Grenn in charge. Obviously, he rates the leadership qualities of either one higher than those of Red Alyn or Mully.

So, either Jon had just an emotional reaction when Noye put him in charge - or he put subpar commanders in charge later despite better knowledge. I consider the first option way more likely.

[KingofSothoryos]

Neither does Jon since that never happened to him and he never claimed so when he talked to Mance.

Well one, no one forced him, if he was at the party he would have saw Jon making a big whinny roar to his uncle wanting to join.

I know Jon was not forced to join the Night's Watch as in he was compelled at sword point, but due to this bastard birth, he felt he had very few options and he had heard all his life that a bastard could earn honor in the Night's Watch. But would Jon have chosen the Night's Watch if he wasn't a bastard? No, it was circumstances which forced Jon into the Night's Watch or forced him into thinking that was the best choice. And so it would be quite believable that Jon when facing certain death would turn his back on the Night's Watch.

And Mance, observing at the feast at Winterfell wouldn't have known why Jon stormed out angry since he was not privy to their conversation. All Mance would have had to go on was Jon was the bastard who wasn't treated like the rest of the Starks since he was seated on the benches. he would have seen Jon speaking to Benjen, the First Ranger of the Night's Watch and then getting upset and storming out. Then he sees Jon about a year later in the Night's Watch up in the Frostfangs and he just killed the Half-Hand, which would seemingly preclude any chance that Jon could go back to the Night's Watch. With Mance's knowledge of what its like in the Night's Watch even for bastard and those other facts, the simplest explanation would be that Jon wasn't happy in the Night's Watch, probably never wanted to be in the Night's Watch and now will be happy to be free of the Night's Watch.

[Cheesedude]

The only person at Castle Black during the attacks that seemed to think Jon wasn't a suitable commander....was Jon.

Noye puts him in charge, and Aemon keeps him there, insisting that there is no one else. The mean trust Aemon, that would have went a long way for anyone who had doubts. The Wall was undermanned to begin with. With Marsh pulling most of the bloody garrison on a chasedown of the Weeper, very few were left.

What rangers didn't go with Mormont to begin with probably went off with Marsh.

Command is not easy. Most of the peasants that join the Night's Watch aren't suited to it. Most of the Watch's high command is highborn. Being raised in a castle, by a lord, gives one a huge advantage over others, and not even just in an egotistical way. Based on who was left, Jon was the logical choice. Worth noting that Giant is shocked when Jon gives him a command in ADWD, citing him being a common-born bastard as an argument against it. Even a seasoned ranger like Ulmer of the Kingswood can have no aptitude for command. It takes a different sort of person.

Had Marsh still been there, the men likely would have deferred to him. Had anyone else been there, they would have deferred to them. The bottom line is that there was no one else.

As to the original topic, I didn't like Jon's explanation to Mance, but I sort of see how Mance would believe it, I guess.

[Wmarshal]

I know Jon was not forced to join the Night's Watch as in he was compelled at sword point, but due to this bastard birth, he felt he had very few options and he had heard all his life that a bastard could earn honor in the Night's Watch. But would Jon have chosen the Night's Watch if he wasn't a bastard? No, it was circumstances which forced Jon into the Night's Watch or forced him into thinking that was the best choice. And so it would be quite believable that Jon when facing certain death would turn his back on the Night's Watch.

That is hardly a defense of force, he wanted to join the watch. Probably, his uncle joined, as well as other starks. It isn't, a Stark bastard would have had a comfortable place in the Watch, a man like Mance should know that. Jon didn't even mention any form of deep push because he was a bastard, Mance had to go on him whining wanting to join and the Stark treatment in the Watch.

And Mance, observing at the feast at Winterfell wouldn't have known why Jon stormed out angry since he was not privy to their conversation. All Mance would have had to go on was Jon was the bastard who wasn't treated like the rest of the Starks since he was seated on the benches. he would have seen Jon speaking to Benjen, the First Ranger of the Night's Watch and then getting upset and storming out. Then he sees Jon about a year later in the Night's Watch up in the Frostfangs and he just killed the Half-Hand, which would seemingly preclude any chance that Jon could go back to the Night's Watch. With Mance's knowledge of what its like in the Night's Watch even for bastard and those other facts, the simplest explanation would be that Jon wasn't happy in the Night's Watch, probably never wanted to be in the Night's Watch and now will be happy to be free of the Night's Watch.

Jon screamed at his uncle and made a scene of it. And how he treated among the Starks means nothing in the Watch. Jon Snow had reason so high he would be with the half hand at all in a ranging. It really isn't, for all he knows he just killed him as a way to trick the wildlings for not killing him on the spot. Why would he? Being of any noble blood gives you better footing than anyone, a specially if you have Stark blood. He clearly wanted to join, else he would not be in the Watch.

[Jasta11]

This is one part the show did best. Jon quitting the NW because ''whaaaa I'm a bastard'' makes no sense given that his bastard status is nearly meaningless at the Wall beyond Thorne's barbs, and as a veteran Mance knows this. Yet he accepts that for this flimsy reason alone, Jon would take many risks to desert, up to and including fighting the NW equivalent of Rambo one on one? Plus, carrying the Lord Commander's Valyrian Steel sword as well as accompanying Quorin Halfhand himself on a mission, it's obvious Jon is not scrubbing chamber pots at Castle Black either, but is given a lot of respect. It makes no sense for him to desert based on that alone, or anyone who deserts for this reason is petty as fuck and is not to be trusted at all. The show version was much better.

[KingofSothoryos]

That is hardly a defense of force, he wanted to join the watch. Probably, his uncle joined, as well as other starks. It isn't, a Stark bastard would have had a comfortable place in the Watch, a man like Mance should know that. Jon didn't even mention any form of deep push because he was a bastard, Mance had to go on him whining wanting to join and the Stark treatment in the Watch.

Jon screamed at his uncle and made a scene of it. And how he treated among the Starks means nothing in the Watch. Jon Snow had reason so high he would be with the half hand at all in a ranging. It really isn't, for all he knows he just killed him as a way to trick the wildlings for not killing him on the spot. Why would he? Being of any noble blood gives you better footing than anyone, a specially if you have Stark blood. He clearly wanted to join, else he would not be in the Watch.

Here are Jon's thoughts about his decision to join the Night's Watch:

"He had thought on it long and hard, lying abed at night while his brothers slept around him. Robb would someday inherit Winterfell, would command great armies as the Warden of the North. Bran and Rickon would be Robb’s bannermen and rule holdfasts in his name. His sisters Arya and Sansa would marry the heirs of other great houses and go south as mistress of castles of their own. But what place could a bastard hope to earn?"

Mance doesn't know Jon chose to join the Night's Watch and my point was that Jon only chose to join the Night's Watch because he was a bastard and so it makes sense that no matter how high Jon could rise in the Night's Watch, it is still a horrible existence compared to the life of his trueborn siblings. Jon could have been a pampered Lordling who beds smallfolk women all he wants, ruled a holdfast and basically lived a very privilege life as the son of a Great Lord, but instead he's living with rapists and criminals up on the Wall in the cold. No one would chose that life (other than Benjen, though why he joined the Watch is unknown) over the one Jon would have had if he wasn't a bastard and so Mance presupposes that Jon should be happy to be free of all of that.

Here is Jon's conversation with Benjen at the feast starting from when they start to make a scene which Mance would take notice of:

"“You are a boy of fourteen,” Benjen said. “Not a man, not yet. Until you have known a woman, you cannot understand what you would be giving up.”

“I don’t care about that!” Jon said hotly.

“You might, if you knew what it meant,” Benjen said. “If you knew what the oath would cost you, you might be less eager to pay the price, son.”

Jon felt anger rise inside him. “I’m not your son!”

Benjen Stark stood up. “More’s the pity.” He put a hand on Jon’s shoulder. “Come back to me after you’ve fathered a few bastards of your own, and we’ll see how you feel.”

Jon trembled. “I will never father a bastard,” he said carefully. “Never!” He spat it out like venom.

Suddenly he realized that the table had fallen silent, and they were all looking at him. He felt the tears begin to well behind his eyes. He pushed himself to his feet.

“I must be excused,” he said with the last of his dignity. He whirled and bolted before they could see him cry. He must have drunk more wine than he had realized. His feet got tangled under him as he tried to leave, and he lurched sideways into a serving girl and sent a flagon of spiced wine crashing to the floor. Laughter boomed all around him, and Jon felt hot tears on his

cheeks. Someone tried to steady him. He wrenched free of their grip and ran, half-blind, for the door. Ghost followed close at his heels, out into the night."

All Mance would have heard of the interchange is probably after Jon says "I don't care about that!" and "I'm not your son!" which added to the fact that Jon is in the Night's Watch a year later, its an easy assumption that Jon was more than likely balking at joining the Night's Watch rather than he was angry that he couldn't join. So taking those few bits from what he observed at the feast and knowing that Jon killed the Half-hand so he couldn't go back to the Watch, all he needed to hear was that Jon was resentful of his lot in life because it was all predestined by him being a bastard. So though Jon was a turncloak, it wasn't just because he wasn't honorable, its because circumstances forced him into the Watch, but it wouldn't have been Jon's choice if he wasn't a bastard so it wasn't a completely dishonorable desertion just like Mance's desertion.

[Mithras]

Oh, jesus. In other threads, I've been called a Jon-sympathizer...now I'm being called a Jon-hater. I'll never understand why people can't have an intelligent debate about something without resorting to insults and name-calling if they truly want their position to be taken seriously.

And I do need to read more...I'm very behind on my reading list. Good thing I've already read ASOIAF several times and have marked it off that list, though :P

You blame George for making Jon's dealings with Mance “unbelievable” and giving him “plot gifts”. This is the main idea of the majority of the irrational Jon-hate posts I have seen and it is obviously wrong.

“Ygritte said you never found the horn.”

“Did you think only crows could lie? I liked you well enough, for a bastard . . . but I never trusted you. A man needs to earn my trust.”

This is where Mance proves again why he did not trust Jon until he earned it.

...did I say all of them were fighters? No. But that doesn't mean they can't throw everything they have at the wall with what they do have. Because they all will die otherwise. Let me repeat that. All of them will die if they don't get beyond the Wall. If Mance needs children, the elderly and infirm to fight, then that's what he should do...the NW is. If Mance has several different plans of attack (which he clearly says that he does), then he should be implementing them all at the same time. It's stupid to do one at a time while giving your enemy the time to build up their defenses. Had Mance attacked East Watch, the Shadow Tower, and Castle Black all at the same time that his southern raiders attacked Castle Black, all the while digging out the gates of abandoned castles along the Wall, then the NW would have fallen in just a few days...long before Stannis made it. He claims that he doesn't do it because the NW will 'bleed him'. Well, the Others will destroy ALL of them, so worrying about casualties at the hands of the NW is just plain stupid when you could throw everything you have at them all at once. Even if it's only 40k people who can fight (which is a likely number), then that still outnumbers the NW by a lot.

You left it ambiguous but it is an important point because “a man atop the Wall is worth a hundred men below”. This is the reason why Mance wanted to spend as few men as possible in taking the Wall. That is also what he told to Jon.

Jon faced him. “If you’ve had the Horn of Joramun all along, why haven’t you used it? Why bother building turtles and sending Thenns to kill us in our beds? If this horn is all the songs say, why not just sound it and be done?”

It was Dalla who answered him, Dalla great with child, lying on her pile of furs beside the brazier. “We free folk know things you kneelers have forgotten. Sometimes the short road is not the safest, Jon Snow. The Horned Lord once said that sorcery is a sword without a hilt. There is no safe way to grasp it.”

Mance ran a hand along the curve of the great horn. “No man goes hunting with only one arrow in his quiver,” he said. “I had hoped that Styr and Jarl would take your brothers unawares, and open the gate for us. I drew your garrison away with feints and raids and secondary attacks. Bowen Marsh swallowed that lure as I knew he would, but your band of cripples and orphans proved to be more stubborn than anticipated. Don’t think you’ve stopped us, though. The truth is, you are too few and we are too many. I could continue the attack here and still send ten thousand men to cross the Bay of Seals on rafts and take Eastwatch from the rear. I could storm the Shadow Tower too, I know the approaches as well as any man alive. I could send men and mammoths to dig out the gates at the castles you’ve abandoned, all of them at once.”

“Why don’t you, then?” Jon could have drawn Longclaw then, but he wanted to hear what the wildling had to say.

“Blood,” said Mance Rayder. “I’d win in the end, yes, but you’d bleed me, and my people have bled enough.”

The bolded part is where Mance explained why he wanted to spare his men as much as he could. The things Mance did not say are also important. Mance could have done all the things he said and taken the Wall by storm but he would lose thousands of fighting men. In the end, a relatively small army assembled in the North could have easily swept them off with such depleted military resources. There is no “idiocy” in his plans. The only thing not clear is how he hoped to deal with the Northmen after he takes the Wall. Perhaps he wanted to install a new NW like Jon too. Or perhaps he thought that it is better to die by the swords of the Northmen than being killed by the Others. In the case of the Northmen, some of the wildlings could be expected to survive while Others cannot be expected to show mercy.

Jon did an excellent job after he was given command, despite his injury. That doesn't mean I think it's believable that Noye gave him the command, though. Why? Because he was 16 (or 17) years old, injured, had absolutely no leadership experience at all, and many of the men still believed that he was a turncloak. He has just returned from the Wildlings...why would they trust him?

Take this quote:

A couple of them saw Jon looking down from atop the King’s Tower and waved up at him. Others turned away. They still think me a turncloak. That was a bitter draft to drink, but Jon could not blame them. He was a bastard, after all. Everyone knew that bastards were wanton and treacherous by nature, having been born of lust and deceit. And he had made as many enemies as friends at Castle Black...

Now, take this quote:

For a moment Jon thought he had misheard. It had sounded as if Noye were leaving him in command. “My lord?”

“Lord? I’m a blacksmith. I said, the Wall is yours.”

There are older men, Jon wanted to say, better men. I am still as green as summer grass. I’m wounded, and I stand accused of desertion.

Even Jon himself is SHOCKED that Noye would put him in charge. There are older men and better men, he even admits, but Noye picks him. It's not realistic, imo.

Really, the problem is that Jon isn't cleared of desertion before all of this happens. In the show, they do that in episode 1, so that by the time you get to episode 9, Jon has already led a successful ranging, trained new recruits and helped shore up Castle Black against the upcoming battle. He has time to become a real leader- he's not thrown into it for plot convenience.

Bright Blue Eyes perfectly explained why you cannot take that quote as a fact. Even Janos Slynt could be expected to have the charge after Donal Noye’s death merely because of his past position of command and being a lord, if he was present. You cannot name a single person who was at the Wall at that time and better suited to take the charge than Jon.

Jon shrugged. “What else is there for me to do? Marsh has removed me from duty, for fear that I’m still a turncloak.”

“It’s only a few who believe that,” Sam assured him. “Ser Alliser and his friends. Most of the brothers know better. King Stannis knows as well, I’ll wager. You brought him the Horn of Winter and captured Mance Rayder’s son.”

“All I did was protect Val and the babe against looters when the wildlings fled, and keep them there until the rangers found us. I never captured anyone. King Stannis keeps his men well in hand, that’s plain. He lets them plunder some, but I’ve only heard of three wildling women being raped, and the men who did it have all been gelded. I suppose I should have been killing the free folk as they ran. Ser Alliser has been putting it about that the only time I bared my sword was to defend our foes. I failed to kill Mance Rayder because I was in league with him, he says.”

“That’s only Ser Alliser,” said Sam. “Everyone knows the sort of man he is.” With his noble birth, his knighthood, and his long years in the Watch, Ser Alliser Thorne might have been a strong challenger for the Lord Commander’s title, but almost all the men he’d trained during his years as master-at-arms despised him. His name had been offered, of course, but after running a weak sixth on the first day and actually losing votes on the second, Thorne had withdrawn to support Lord Janos Slynt

Jon was practically cleared of desertion when he explained everything to Aemon/Donal and they believed him. He also earned it by proving useful against the Thenns and later against Mance. Only few people with irrational Jon hate believed that he was guilty of treason (like Thorne, Slynt, possibly Septon Cellador etc.).

Your timing is off. See above- when Noye put Jon in charge, Jon had just returned from being with the Wildlings. Other than his friends, the rest would have no reason to trust him at that point. And he admits that he's made a lot of enemies there, as well, so I seriously doubt it's "only Janos and Thorne". Bowen Marsh isn't even Jon's enemy at that point, and he takes him off duty for fear he's a turncloak when he returns.

Maester Aemon spoke up then. “My lord [slynt], Donal Noye and I discussed these issues when Jon Snow first returned to us, and were satisfied by Jon’s explanations.”

See above. The matter was already settled by the time Thorne and Slynt appeared. Bowen Marsh was being manipulated by Thorne just like Slynt. You cannot take the cronies of Thorne seriously, nor I think they were as numeous as people think.

The election is unbelievable because I see no way that Jon gets 2/3rds of a popular vote when there are older and more qualified men without any questions about their loyalty running against him.

Also, Aemon does nothing at all- Sam is the one who pulls strings...and even then, it takes a deus ex machina (Mormont's raven) to sway the election.

“The choosing . . . Maester, isn’t there something you could do? What the king said of Lord Janos . . .”

“I recall,” Maester Aemon said, “but Sam, I am a maester, chained and sworn. My duty is to counsel the Lord Commander, whoever he might be. It would not be proper for me to be seen to favor one contender over another.”

“I’m not a maester,” said Sam. “Could I do something?”

Aemon turned his blind white eyes toward Sam’s face, and smiled softy. “Why, I don’t know, Samwell. Could you?”

This is a very simple “fill in the blanks” type question. Aemon manipulated Sam into “doing something”. It is not surprising that both Denys Mallister and Cotter Pyke immediately assumed that Sam came with Aemon’s terms. In fact, the words of Denys Mallister imply that Aemon was secretly influential in some past elections too.

Aemon also seems to be the only one to place Mormont's Raven into the kettle. This is not deux ex machina. This is Aemon giving the office to Jon.

Sam, you’re a sweet fool, he could hear Jon saying, all the way back to the maester’s keep. Open your eyes. It’s been happening for days. Could he be right? A man needed the votes of two-thirds of the Sworn Brothers to become the Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch, and after nine days and nine votes no one was even close to that. Lord Janos had been gaining, true, creeping up past first Bowen Marsh and then Othell Yarwyck, but he was still well behind Ser Denys Mallister of the Shadow Tower and Cotter Pyke of Eastwatch-by-the-Sea. One of them will be the new Lord Commander, surely, Sam told himself.

You can also see that Cotter Pyke and Denys Mallister had the most votes and when Sam united them under Jon’s name, Jon became the top contender for the office.

I have further speculations that Aemon wanted Jon to be the LC not only because he was the best man for the job but also he was the only one Aemon could manipulate into sending him to Oldtown. The main reason why Jon sent Aemon comes from Aemon himself. Supposedly, Aemon overheard that queen’s men desired to burn Mance’s baby too and in due time, Aemon and his kingsblood could feed the nightfires as well. The most reasonable explanation is that Aemon wanted to leave the Wall for some reason (especially after being sure that Stannis was not tPtwP and his sword was fake).

Mance's plan would have succeeded if he had implemented all of the different ones at once and overwhelmed the NW quickly before Stannis had a chance to get there.

And if Mance didn't 'anticipate' Jon trying to escape to warn the NW, then he truly is a fool...especially since he decides to send him over the Wall right after he finds out that Jon has lied to him about the NW's ranging.

I already explained why Mance needed to take the Wall with as few casualties as possible and sending dozens of attacks to different places would hurt them severely. I also explained in my previous posts that as far as Mance was concerned, Jon had no chance to escape the Thenns alive. Magnar hated Jon and never trusted him. His eyes were on Jon all the time. Do you think Mance didn’t know that? As I said, the only plot gift about the whole Mance-Jon thing was the intervention of Summer/Shaggydog but hey, can anybody really expect that George was supposed to kill Jon while trying to escape the Thenns?

[sj4iy]

Oh, Jesus. I don't "irrationally hate" Jon Snow's storyline. Never have. Doesn't mean I can't point out the flaws I see in it. Someone who can't criticize something they like has no place criticizing anything else.

Martin isn't infallible, either. He has weaknesses in his writing just like everyone else. That doesn't mean I don't like and enjoy his books- it simply means he's human and makes mistakes.

My simple opinion is that he rushed Jon's ascent to Lord Commander. It's not believable given Jon's circumstances, age, and inexperience. Had he brought Jon back sooner or given Jon experience leading, I would completely understand...but he didn't. Jon had never even led a ranging at that point. Jon is clearly a natural-born leader, but talent doesn't automatically give one the ability to lead an entire military organization when one has no experience to back it up.

It was a plot convenience in Jon's favor. I don't see what's so "wrong" about me pointing that out when he's my favorite character.

[butterbumps!]

hmm. I think this is fairly simple actually.

1. Mance pretty obviously wants something (yet unknown to us) from Jon. Hence, why he wanted to keep a "son of Winterfell" around.

2. Mance pretty clearly never trusted Jon's desertion, nor bought Jon's rationale for deserting.

3. Both Mance and Jon gave bullshit reasons for deserting the Watch.

4. Mance wasn't truly wanting to destroy the Watch. If you look at all of Mance's post-Watch actions, he's actually been doing Watch business this whole time. He was planning to fight the Others himself, for gods sake.

[Brightstar_]

hmm. I think this is fairly simple actually.

1. Mance pretty obviously wants something (yet unknown to us) from Jon. Hence, why he wanted to keep a "son of Winterfell" around.

2. Mance pretty clearly never trusted Jon's desertion, nor bought Jon's rationale for deserting.

3. Both Mance and Jon gave bullshit reasons for deserting the Watch.

4. Mance wasn't truly wanting to destroy the Watch. If you look at all of Mance's post-Watch actions, he's actually been doing Watch business this whole time. He was planning to fight the Others himself, for gods sake.

So you think Mance never REALLY turned his cloak either? That he was on a self appointed mission? I find that hard to believe. Sure maybe he didn't want to destroy the watch - they were once his brothers, But I don't think there's more to it than that.

[butterbumps!]

So you think Mance never REALLY turned his cloak either? That he was on a self appointed mission? I find that hard to believe. Sure maybe he didn't want to destroy the watch - they were once his brothers, But I don't think there's more to it than that.

I'm not going to go so far as to say that Mance isn't an oathbreaker or anything like that.

But look at everything Mance has done since that red silk incident. He left the Watch, rallied the wildlings, initially intended to fight the Others, and upon failing that, basically arranged for an exodus.

Adjacently, look at how lost the Watch had been in its purpose. The Watch completely forgot the reason it was started in the first place, thought the Others were a stupid fairy tale, thought the wildlings were enemy, etc.

I tend to think something like this happened, based on these factors and Mance's character:

Mance was out on a ranging, and became aware of the Others' return. He tries explaining this to the LC at the time (LC Qorgyle), who doesn't believe him. Worse, in light of how the Watch and wildlings are enemies, Mance knows that these people will have no hope for protection by the Watch , and the wildlings themselves are too scattered and ununified to make a stand on their own. They're condemned to die.

So Mance leaves the Watch to unite the wildlings. I'm going to bet he ran on a platform of standing against the common enemy. I think he was initially hoping to defeat the Others (as per Osha in aGoT), and then hoped to get his people over for safety.

Also, as per Osha's band in aGoT, it was noted that Mance wanted a Stark. Between first ranger Benjen and the fact that the Starks controlled the North, Mance wanted a Stark negotiation tool to aid in this. Jon's potentially politically useful to that end (and at this point in time, Robb's still the KitN, so the potential for negotiation still exists).

[Brightstar_]

I'm not going to go so far as to say that Mance isn't an oathbreaker or anything like that.

But look at everything Mance has done since that red silk incident. He left the Watch, rallied the wildlings, initially intended to fight the Others, and upon failing that, basically arranged for an exodus.

Adjacently, look at how lost the Watch had been in its purpose. The Watch completely forgot the reason it was started in the first place, thought the Others were a stupid fairy tale, thought the wildlings were enemy, etc.

I tend to think something like this happened, based on these factors and Mance's character:

Mance was out on a ranging, and became aware of the Others' return. He tries explaining this to the LC at the time (LC Qorgyle), who doesn't believe him. Worse, in light of how the Watch and wildlings are enemies, Mance knows that these people will have no hope for protection by the Watch , and the wildlings themselves are too scattered and ununified to make a stand on their own. They're condemned to die.

So Mance leaves the Watch to unite the wildlings. I'm going to bet he ran on a platform of standing against the common enemy. I think he was initially hoping to defeat the Others (as per Osha in aGoT), and then hoped to get his people over for safety.

Also, as per Osha's band in aGoT, it was noted that Mance wanted a Stark. Between first ranger Benjen and the fact that the Starks controlled the North, Mance wanted a Stark negotiation tool to aid in this. Jon's potentially politically useful to that end (and at this point in time, Robb's still the KitN, so the potential for negotiation still exists).

Well perhaps that's how it happened, perhaps he really just turned his cloak, lived with the wildlings, and THEN the Others started to appear, he tried to fight them, lost and decided that the only thing they could do was run, and for that they had to get through the Wall, so he united the Wildlings as best he could.