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What are the chances that Margery lives?


Seaworth'sShipmate

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Is it at all possible that Margarey will live in The winds of winter?



I know both are having their trials coming up, but Marge doesn't say if she'll have a trial by combat or not.



I mean if Robert Strong wins Cersei's trial, all that means is she is not guilty of what she was accused.



I have a bad feeling about Marge though. She is clearly modeled after Anne Boleyn, another pretty charming queen who won the people's heart, but lost her head after 1000 days.



Could Margarey survive? If she dies, she will be the first character in a while whose death will trouble me.



The last death I felt sad about was Robb and Cat's, and they died 13 years ago. Almost noone I am emotionally invested in at all has died in AFFC or ADWD.


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Anne actually didn't win the peoples' heart. She was blamed for a lot of things (most of which could not possibly have been her fault) and rather hated by the people, who very much still loved Catherine. But yes, Anne's railroading was the inspiration for Margaery's trial, so it doesn't look good for the rose of Highgarden.



The thing about Margaery's chances is that even if she wins her trial, Cersei will still find a way to get rid of her because she thinks Marg is the Younger, More Beautiful Queen or Maggy's fortune. Makes me think Marg is NOT the YMBQ, but Cersei won't take the chance. She'll get rid of her.


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Even if she were found Guilty of adultery, I suspect Tyrell influence would prevent her from being executed.

But, if evidence were to emerge that she was a party to Joffrey's murder, then I think she'd be executed.

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Even if she were found Guilty of adultery, I suspect Tyrell influence would prevent her from being executed.

But, if evidence were to emerge that she was a party to Joffrey's murder, then I think she'd be executed.

Tyrell influence is facing serious threats. If JonCon defeats Mace and Euron defeats Garlan, then no one can save Marg.

Marg's fate is very much depended on the success of the Tyrells in the field.

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Slim to none would be my guess.



Even if she gets found innocent of the charges against her (both the murder and adultery charges) and makes it out of her trial in one piece, Cersei, or someone acting as her proxy, would find some way of ensuring she met with an 'accident'.


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I think her chances might be at least even.



Tommen loves her, Highgarden has the best army left (right?), and I don't think anyone realy wants her dead besides Cersei.



In Daenerys fictional revisionist history the Tyrells were not one of, "the usurpers dogs" so I doubt Marge has much to fear from her until she goes full mad queen mode.



I doubt the northmen would kill her. She is just a woman and she obviously isn't carrying Tommen Jr. so she isn't a threat.



Cat liked her so I don't think TBwB would kill her out of hand.



So yeah, really only Cersei actively wants her dead and several factions either like her or would only touch her and do her no harm.


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She should be clear of the trial, since the witnesses against her are all now dead or useless.



But then again ...





Slim to none.



She is most probably innocent and Cersei is definitely guilty. Therefore, she will be found guilty and executed.





... who says life in ASOIAF turns out as predicted ?



(Poor Margaery - she's one of the useful Tyrells.)

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Her chances a slim at best. She is not only in danger from Cersei but Varys too. The Lannister/Tyrell alliance is probably the biggest obstacle to fAegon. Varys needs to find a way to dissolve that alliance and Marg may be just the 'tool' to get that done.


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I think her survival is tied to how Cersei's story develops. Cersei is not done yet (the prophecy.. the jars of wildfire..), and if she needs to be around some more, doing shit, that means she survives the trial. Given everything that's gone down between them, it will be tough to have Cersei and Marge both back in their full force at court (Marge knows Cersei is behind it all; Cersei may rightly/wrongly blame the Tyrells for a conspiracy). This might suggest Marge will be the one who dies.

BUT Varys might actually want them both back at court and at each other's throats , because they would be distracted from Aegon - and that might, perversely, ensure Marge's survival, for now.

I can't wait for Cersei's first POV chapter.

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Just curious: If Cersei has Marg killed, would the Tyrells decide that anything is better than the Lannisters, and ally with Aegon?

The Tyrells may be rendered irrelevant by what the Hightowers do (if, say, Aegon saves Oldtown from the Ironborn) and what Tarly does (he's a little too loyal; a little too quiet about Mace shamelessly claiming his military feats).

It may be that the Tyrells end up being abandoned by their main bannermen for Aegon, and Cersei then strikes to kill Marge and get her "revenge".

Further speculation / fan fiction:

KL then erupts in a riot (they love their Marge), Cersei sets off the wildfire plot 2.0, Tommen burns to death, news of Myrcella's death reaches them, Jaime is there and he kills Cersei (in a parallel with how he killed Aerys over the first wildfire plot; the first time made Jaime a kingslayer, the second a kinslayer. All for that shithole city, and no one will ever thank him).

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Why does everyone think that Margaery will by executed by the faith? The High Septon actually admitted to Randyll Tarly that the case against her was rather weak, and I don't think that the High Septon is very eager to do anything that Cersei wants.



If she dies, its either going to be a riot, or unGregor, or maybe she decides to pull an Alicent Hightower.


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