[TWOIAF spoilers] How the Dance and the Trident predict Boltons' fate

[The Dragon Demands]

One of the things that always angered me the most about Roose Bolton in particular is that he betrayed all of the men under his command, the non-Bolton ones, cynically sending them on suicide missions at Duskendale and Ruby Ford. Just time and again, the same betrayals: send soldiers from other Northern Houses on suicide missions to bleed off Stark supporters, while keeping his own Bolton forces undamaged and intact to later enforce Bolton rule over the defeated North after their remaining forces were slaughtered at the Red Wedding.

But the histories give us some prominent examples which strongly hint at how the Boltons (and Freys) will lose: by keeping his men out of any real battles but sending others to fight and die, Bolton may have a larger army, but they're mostly green and unbled, inexperienced.

We already saw this at the Battle of the Trident: Robert's rebel army was slightly smaller, but battle-hardened from a full year of fighting, while Rhaegar's new army from the Crownlands and Dorne was technically larger...but green, not veterans. (Rhaegar had 40,000; Robert had 35,000)

The Dance of the Dragons took this up to eleven, and you see it even in the printed parts of the Princess and the Queen: the Riverlands Houses under the Tullys and Blackwoods lost A LOT of men, fighting most of the campaign, at the Battle by the LakeShore (destroying the Lannisters), the Butcher's Ball (battle by the lake-shore, killing Criston Cole), at First Tumbleton, and even Second Tumbleton.

By the end you see...at First Tumbleton, blooded Stark veterans in the Winter Wolves dealing serious damage to a fresh Hightower army ten times their size (even managing to kill their commander). Addam Velaryon managing to rally up the survivors and other Riverlands contingents, with maybe 1,000 men left, could still smash the greens at Second Tumbleton with the element of surprise.

So it's even more drastic than the Trident: when a kingdom's armies go to war, if 90% die...the remaining 10% become battle-hardened veterans, disproportionately worth more than their numerical number.

The Boltons in the War of the Five Kings are basically the Baratheons in the Dance of the Dragons:

The Stormlands, and mostly, the Vale, were allied to the greens and blacks respectively, but were the only regions not yet totally exhausted by the point Rhaenyra died. The Vale was because winter had come and the mountain passes froze - though they did *try* to send what support they could by sea.

Borros Baratheon on the other hand, was an opportunistic backstabber who got what was coming to him. By ties of blood he *should* have sided with Rhaenyra, but cynically said he wouldn't without a new marriage-alliance, and so technically "sided" with the greens....but, he was slow to gather his army. Indeed, when Aemond took the Crownlands armies north to Harrenhal (which were later slaughtered at the Butcher's Ball), his advisors begged him to wait until reinforcements form the Stormlands eventually entered the war.

So with *no* participation in the war up until that point, the full, fresh, and undamaged army of the Stormlands finally came after Rhaenyra died, and successfully retook King's Landing from the month of mob rule it had endured, restoring Aegon II to the Iron Throne itself.

....but the other Black armies rallied. The Riverlands army that survived from Second Tumbleton was what, 1,000 men? MAYBE supported by a few reinforcements from the Vale? (the main wave of Starks came weeks later, after the war ended).

These guys had fought through virtually *every* major land battle of the war, certainly all of the biggest (save for the fighting out by Rook's Rest - which weren't big battles, and the Honeywine)....certainly all of the biggest battles.

So they were drastically outnumbered yet again, now facing a fresh Stormlands army numbering in the tens of thousands....but they were veterans. Borros had patted himself on the back and called himself cunning for staying out of the war until now and not getting his own men killed...meaning that they were all green and with no real combat experience.

In the Battle of the Kingsroad, the Tullys slaughtered Borros's army and killed him. He was also so arrogant that he rode out to crush them, allowing himself to be lured into unfavorable muddy terrain....shades of Stannis and the frozen lakes? And that decided the whole war; with the Tully army advancing on a now largely defenseless King's Landing, and the main Stark army reserves coming down the Kingsroad weeks to days away, Aegon II refused to surrender so his advisors poisoned him, ending the war.

This might seem obvious now, but it just hit me like a ton of bricks because I never put 2 and 2 together before: Roose Bolton thinks it's cunning that he "preserved" his Bolton forces while sending Stark-loyal Northerners to do the dirty work...but the result is that his large army is *green and unbled*.

I mean, what actual combat experience did the eastern army group have?

They were in the Battle of the Green Fork....but that was one battle, and only a *feint*, at the very beginning of the war. Afterwards they were raiding and skirmishing in the Riverlands by way of Harrenhal, yes, but....not pitched battles. The Red Wedding was more a slaughter than a real battle. Same with the Fall of Moat Cailin.

So I ask....do the Bolton forces really have any combat experience other than the Green Fork, and how much does the Green Fork count for?

Does anyone have a specific quote about how the Northern forces were arrayed at Green Fork?

I strongly suspect/half-remember that Roose Bolton once again held back his own Bolton forces in reserve...and even then, he retreated his men at the first opportunity rather than really committing them in a major fight to the death, retreating in good order, because all he needed to do was feint.

At the beginning of ADWD Stannis boasts that he may only have ~1,500 men left, but they're knights who got blooded in the massive Battle of the Blackwater, and who then fought at the Battle of Castle Black, and they're veterans by now. This seemed half an idle boast but...yeah, comparatively, the Boltons have done little.

Heck, even the FREYS technically did more than the Boltons did, at least they participated in Whispering Wood and Oxcross.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

One of the things that always angered me the most about Roose Bolton in particular is that he betrayed all of the men under his command, the non-Bolton ones, cynically sending them on suicide missions at Duskendale and Ruby Ford. Just time and again, the same betrayals: send soldiers from other Northern Houses on suicide missions to bleed off Stark supporters, while keeping his own Bolton forces undamaged and intact to later enforce Bolton rule over the defeated North after their remaining forces were slaughtered at the Red Wedding.

But the histories give us some prominent examples which strongly hint at how the Boltons (and Freys) will lose: by keeping his men out of any real battles but sending others to fight and die, Bolton may have a larger army, but they're mostly green and unbled, inexperienced.

We already saw this at the Battle of the Trident: Robert's rebel army was slightly smaller, but battle-hardened from a full year of fighting, while Rhaegar's new army from the Crownlands and Dorne was technically larger...but green, not veterans. (Rhaegar had 40,000; Robert had 35,000)

The Dance of the Dragons took this up to eleven, and you see it even in the printed parts of the Princess and the Queen: the Riverlands Houses under the Tullys and Blackwoods lost A LOT of men, fighting most of the campaign, at the Battle by the LakeShore (destroying the Lannisters), the Butcher's Ball (battle by the lake-shore, killing Criston Cole), at First Tumbleton, and even Second Tumbleton.

By the end you see...at First Tumbleton, blooded Stark veterans in the Winter Wolves dealing serious damage to a fresh Hightower army ten times their size (even managing to kill their commander). Addam Velaryon managing to rally up the survivors and other Riverlands contingents, with maybe 1,000 men left, could still smash the greens at Second Tumbleton with the element of surprise.

So it's even more drastic than the Trident: when a kingdom's armies go to war, if 90% die...the remaining 10% become battle-hardened veterans, disproportionately worth more than their numerical number.

The Boltons in the War of the Five Kings are basically the Baratheons in the Dance of the Dragons:

The Stormlands, and mostly, the Vale, were allied to the greens and blacks respectively, but were the only regions not yet totally exhausted by the point Rhaenyra died. The Vale was because winter had come and the mountain passes froze - though they did *try* to send what support they could by sea.

Borros Baratheon on the other hand, was an opportunistic backstabber who got what was coming to him. By ties of blood he *should* have sided with Rhaenyra, but cynically said he wouldn't without a new marriage-alliance, and so technically "sided" with the greens....but, he was slow to gather his army. Indeed, when Aemond took the Crownlands armies north to Harrenhal (which were later slaughtered at the Butcher's Ball), his advisors begged him to wait until reinforcements form the Stormlands eventually entered the war.

So with *no* participation in the war up until that point, the full, fresh, and undamaged army of the Stormlands finally came after Rhaenyra died, and successfully retook King's Landing from the month of mob rule it had endured, restoring Aegon II to the Iron Throne itself.

....but the other Black armies rallied. The Riverlands army that survived from Second Tumbleton was what, 1,000 men? MAYBE supported by a few reinforcements from the Vale? (the main wave of Starks came weeks later, after the war ended).

These guys had fought through virtually *every* major land battle of the war, certainly all of the biggest (save for the fighting out by Rook's Rest - which weren't big battles, and the Honeywine)....certainly all of the biggest battles.

So they were drastically outnumbered yet again, now facing a fresh Stormlands army numbering in the tens of thousands....but they were veterans. Borros had patted himself on the back and called himself cunning for staying out of the war until now and not getting his own men killed...meaning that they were all green and with no real combat experience.

In the Battle of the Kingsroad, the Tullys slaughtered Borros's army and killed him. He was also so arrogant that he rode out to crush them, allowing himself to be lured into unfavorable muddy terrain....shades of Stannis and the frozen lakes? And that decided the whole war; with the Tully army advancing on a now largely defenseless King's Landing, and the main Stark army reserves coming down the Kingsroad weeks to days away, Aegon II refused to surrender so his advisors poisoned him, ending the war.

This might seem obvious now, but it just hit me like a ton of bricks because I never put 2 and 2 together before: Roose Bolton thinks it's cunning that he "preserved" his Bolton forces while sending Stark-loyal Northerners to do the dirty work...but the result is that his large army is *green and unbled*.

I mean, what actual combat experience did the eastern army group have?

They were in the Battle of the Green Fork....but that was one battle, and only a *feint*, at the very beginning of the war. Afterwards they were raiding and skirmishing in the Riverlands by way of Harrenhal, yes, but....not pitched battles. The Red Wedding was more a slaughter than a real battle. Same with the Fall of Moat Cailin.

So I ask....do the Bolton forces really have any combat experience other than the Green Fork, and how much does the Green Fork count for?

Does anyone have a specific quote about how the Northern forces were arrayed at Green Fork?

I strongly suspect/half-remember that Roose Bolton once again held back his own Bolton forces in reserve...and even then, he retreated his men at the first opportunity rather than really committing them in a major fight to the death, retreating in good order, because all he needed to do was feint.

At the beginning of ADWD Stannis boasts that he may only have ~1,500 men left, but they're knights who got blooded in the massive Battle of the Blackwater, and who then fought at the Battle of Castle Black, and they're veterans by now. This seemed half an idle boast but...yeah, comparatively, the Boltons have done little.

Heck, even the FREYS technically did more than the Boltons did, at least they participated in Whispering Wood and Oxcross.

The banners of the Freys and other northern houses were all seen by Tyrion on the Green Fork, no Bolton Banners though. Had Roose known he could forge a marriage alliance with the Freys he would likely have kept them out of harms way, but at the time they had no more loyalty to him than the Northmen.

I agree that Stannis' men are probably some of the toughest, most battle hardened soldiers in westeros at this point though this advantage will probably be offset by the starvation and such: though the Freys, lacking northern assistance (Stannis has the clansmen and the guides of the Wolfswood to help him), will probably be worse off, due to the cold if not the lack of supplies.

[Tyrion's Wife]

if he means to rule by fear, this does not apply to anything. But otherwise, good point!

[Shrek]

Ramsays 600 men fougth before the sack of Winterfell and deafeted an army numbering about 2000, but apart from that the Boltons have not had their men tested. Interesting point.

[Mithras]

The banners of the Freys and other northern houses were all seen by Tyrion on the Green Fork, no Bolton Banners though. Had Roose known he could forge a marriage alliance with the Freys he would likely have kept them out of harms way, but at the time they had no more loyalty to him than the Northmen.

I agree that Stannis' men are probably some of the toughest, most battle hardened soldiers in westeros at this point though this advantage will probably be offset by the starvation and such: though the Freys, lacking northern assistance (Stannis has the clansmen and the guides of the Wolfswood to help him), will probably be worse off, due to the cold if not the lack of supplies.

I think that deadly march made Stannis' men even tougher.

Ramsays 600 men fougth before the sack of Winterfell and deafeted an army numbering about 2000, but apart from that the Boltons have not had their men tested. Interesting point.

I agree that Ramsay's men are more dangerous.

Some people might think that the wildlings are joke against Bolton forces but those wildlings are the survivors of the harshest conditions, something even the Northmen could not easily imagine. They certainly do not lack bravery or ferocity. With the element of surprise, Jon and his wildlings could descend on the Boltons like a pack of wolves and defeat them. Even if they lose, they could manage to kill Roose/Ramsay, which is worth it.

[Chaircat Meow]

Some people might think that the wildlings are joke against Bolton forces but those wildlings are the survivors of the harshest conditions, something even the Northmen could not easily imagine. They certainly do not lack bravery or ferocity. With the element of surprise, Jon and his wildlings could descend on the Boltons like a pack of wolves and defeat them. Even if they lose, they could manage to kill Roose/Ramsay, which is worth it.

No, it's the lack of discipline and poor weapons/armour that set the wildlings back.

[Mithras]

No, it's the lack of discipline and poor weapons/armour that set the wildlings back.

Jon didnot let Stannis loot the arsenal of the NW.

[Lord Varys]

Actually, the estimation that Vale did not fight all that much in Dance is wrong. Ran has said that Jeyne Arryn sent 10,000 men to fight for Rhaenyra in the war, and the fact that they apparently don't show up in KL during TPatQ is a pretty strong hint that we still don't know a lot about that war...