Aegon Blackfyre, so what ?

[voltron]

Why Varys and Illyrio haven't tried to claim Aegon as a Blackfyre pretender instead as a Targaryen. Blackfyre are Targaryens, and Aegon have a claim to the Throne. Right now, the Iron Throne is divided between many contenders, it wouldn't change a damn thing for the lords and the smallfolk, i think all they wanted right now is peace and stability. If Aegon can bring them that, who care who is real Targaryen or not ? Him being a Targaryen will not guarantee a victory, he must win the It with an army, the same thing for Dany. For example, Renly had no claim to the IT (third child) but he almost win the Throne with the Tyrells support just by vanity.

I'm agree that this would've been almost impossible if Robert was still alive, but same thing for Dany and Viserys. The whole Kingdom would've been behind Robert against Dany or Viserys, Dragons or not, the battle would've been almost impossible for her to win. Victory is more of a matter of political stability than anything else, right now the Kingdom is unstable, Aegon Blackfyre's chance to win the IT is the same than Dany Targaryen. Dany had no advantage in term of Family name compare to Aegon right now, her only real advantage is her dragon, but if Aegon steal one of her dragon, there would be no advantage for Dany.

I think Varys strategy is a big mistake in the long run.

[voltron]

Just remind you that people laughed at Viserys when he tried to gain supports for his claim of the Throne, so the Targaryens name doesn't guarantee you anything, people don't automatically take you seriously just because you're a Targaryen.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Daemon Blackfyre and all of his descendants are legally barred from inheriting the Iron Throne. So if Aegon is a Blackfyre he does not have a legal claim. Dany at least can argue that the throne was forcibly and wrongly taken from her line before she was born (and while Viserys was passed over, we don't know that anyone else in Aerys' line was).

Aegon can take over Westeros and be king by right of conquest, but his bloodline was deliberately excluded from the succession. What Aegon IV may or may not have wanted becomes moot after the Blackfyres are excluded through a legal process, which they were.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I agree with what LB states but would also add the following. Varys has a pretty good idea of what types of appeals might get support in Westeros. For example, Dorne is more likely to support Doran's grandson than a Blackfyre. There are other Targ loyalists who have kept quiet during Robert's reign. But there are no Blackfyre loyalists left in Westeros. Varys knows what he is doing.

[Jaak]

Laws don´t matter. Tradition does. Blackfyre supporters have had 104 years to dissipate, Targaryen loyalists only 17 years. And Daemon´s claim was much less plausible at Redgrass Field than Aerys´ was at Trident.

[yomi]

"I'm Rhaergar Targaryen's son" is a better story than "I'm a female line Blackfyre" to make people in Westeros follow you. To make the GC follow you, the second might have been better, but apparently "I'm a Targaryen, but hey, red or black, a dragon is still a dragon, right, and I'm gonna take you home to Westeros" sufficed for that, too. Or maybe "He's a female line Blackfyre, but don't tell anyone, claiming to be Rhaegar's son will improve his chances to take you home to Westeros".

[The Bittersteel]

Aside from the Blackfyre's presumably being barred from the Iron throne there are likely other houses with closer blood relations to the Targaryens, such as the Martells (Prince Maron's marriage to Daenerys).

By the time of the series the Blackfyre claim alone is not particularly strong.

Edit: Just to clarify Renly does have a claim being the brother of the former king. He could use a number of reasons as to why Stannis should be excluded in his favor (false religion for example). Claim is important to people to justify a dynasty's rule. The Blackfyre one is just too weak.

[Blackfyre Gateau]

"I'm Rhaergar Targaryen's son" is a better story than "I'm a female line Blackfyre" to make people in Westeros follow you.

This!

Also, we forget that legitimised or not by Aegon IV, to many the Blackfyre line is still;

1 A line of Bastards

2 A line of traitors

3 A historic scourge to stability and order in the Seven Kingdoms - War of Ninepenny Kings, etc. Making common cause with unsavoury types + "Maegor the Monstorous" himself being in bloodlines.

Spoiler

I'm loving the reveal that Bloodraven offed "Aenys Blackfyre" and was sentenced to death only to be pardoned and sent to the Wall by Egg.

[voltron]

There's no real succession law on Westeros, that's what i'm trying to argue. Renly show exactly the Hypocrisy of the succession laws, it's just a matter of political stability and circumstances. The Blackfyre are barred from the succession under the Targaryens rule, but the Targaryens are barred from the succession under the Baratheon rule, it depends on who have the power at the moment. Dorne could have supported Aegon if he can give them something in return, like revenge on the Lannisters and marriage to Arianne. I'm sure some riverlands and Stormlands lords will support Aegon too, the Vale have no strong leader, so some lords can support Aegon, maybe the reach can throw their support, nothing is guarantee. I think Varys take this decision thinking Robert would be alive when Aegon will invade Westeros, he never thought the situation would've been so chaotic.

If claim based on family name was that important, Stannis would've been king right now. Aegon's successful attack on Storm's end put him as a serious leader and contender to the Throne, Blackfyre or not doesn't change a thing to the fact that he has the Golden company and probably some lords on his side right now and he can challenge openly the IT. Dany is far behind, and if she let Aegon sit on the IT as a Blackfyre King, she would be considered as a invader and she has to prove that she's leader if she want the IT, non one is going to give her the red carpet without a fight.

[voltron]

The IT was stable for 14 years because Robert was a strong leader and people feared him, and he got the North, the Riverlands, the Vale, the Westerland on his side, and probably the Reach with Renly-Margery's marriage alliance. The Baratheon name didn't helped him much. Who would have challenged prime Robert ? the guy was a beast and a strong leader. His name was just an excuse.

[A spoon of knife and fork]

I think Varys and Illyrio want Daenerys to marry Aegon. She would not agree to marry a Blackfyre but she might (probably would) agree to marry another Targ.

[yomi]

Calling himself Targaryen is not sufficient to win Aegon the throne. It helps, though. Maybe he could win over Dorne as a Blackfyre by marrying Arianne. But being considered Elia's son might be enough to win over Dorne without marrying her, leaving him free to marry someone else and getting that bride's family's support in addition to the support of Dorne.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

1. There's no real succession law on Westeros, that's what i'm trying to argue.

2. Renly show exactly the Hypocrisy of the succession laws, it's just a matter of political stability and circumstances.

3. The Blackfyre are barred from the succession under the Targaryens rule, but the Targaryens are barred from the succession under the Baratheon rule, it depends on who have the power at the moment.

4. Dorne could have supported Aegon if he can give them something in return, like revenge on the Lannisters and marriage to Arianne. I'm sure some riverlands and Stormlands lords will support Aegon too,

5. the Vale have no strong leader, so some lords can support Aegon, maybe the reach can throw their support, nothing is guarantee.

6. I think Varys take this decision thinking Robert would be alive when Aegon will invade Westeros, he never thought the situation would've been so chaotic.

7. If claim based on family name was that important, Stannis would've been king right now.

8. Aegon's successful attack on Storm's end put him as a serious leader and contender to the Throne, Blackfyre or not doesn't change a thing to the fact that he has the Golden company and probably some lords on his side right now and he can challenge openly the IT.

9. Dany is far behind, and if she let Aegon sit on the IT as a Blackfyre King, she would be considered as a invader and she has to prove that she's leader if she want the IT, non one is going to give her the red carpet without a fight.

1. Yes, there is. The Targaryens wrote certain things into the law such as: male claimants come before female claimants, regardless of degree of relation to the last reigning monarch; legitimized bastards go to the end of the line behind ALL trueborns male and female.

2. Renly's claim was entirely illegal and unjustifiable. NO ONE in the series argued that Renly had a good claim. The only reason he got as far as he did was because he was popular. He was probably going to play the "false religion" card to knock Stannis out of the running, but since he hadn't done that yet it remains that Renly was a traitor to his big brother as well as to his "nephew."

3. Uh, no. Viserys was passed over. We do not have any indication that he was legally barred from ascending the throne, or that any children he might have were barred, or that any other Targaryens are barred. Dany wasn't even born yet at the time to decision was made so she likely was not included in the ruling.

4. The Lannister they wanted revenge on is dead already. So are the men who perpetrated the brutal crimes against Elia and Rhaenys. They should support Aegon because he is Elia's son. Marrying Arianne would sweeten the deal but it's not necessary if he is THE Aegon.

5. Littlefinger is currently in charge there. He's a rat but no one can say he can't lead.

6. Actually there's a good chance he and Illyrio were planning on utter chaos. Have Dany and Viserys invade with the Dothraki, everything goes to hell, have Aegon come in as the savior figure. Rhaegar Targaryen's son returns to take back his homeland and rescue his people from those Essosi savages. That would have played pretty well with the smallfolk. What they didn't count on was Dany hatching those eggs.

7. No. Because he hasn't proven that Cersei's children aren't Baratheons. Tommen is known as King Tommen Baratheon. Same last name as Stannis.

8. True, but...the people will not support him if they think he's a Blackfyre. They want Rhaegar's son, not some descendant of the man who plunged the country into years of civil war and enmity between friends and families.

9. Agreed. She'll be an invader anyway. At the head of a foreign army no less. She will have to fight for it, but luckily she'll have lots of experience doing just that by the time she shows up.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

The IT was stable for 14 years because Robert was a strong leader and people feared him, and he got the North, the Riverlands, the Vale, the Westerland on his side, and probably the Reach with Renly-Margery's marriage alliance. The Baratheon name didn't helped him much. Who would have challenged prime Robert ? the guy was a beast and a strong leader. His name was just an excuse.

Renly didn't even think of marrying Margaery until after Robert was dead. The plan was to get Robert to divorce Cersei and take Margaery as his bride.

The Baratheon name is tied to the Targaryen name. Robert's paternal grandmother was Rhaelle Targaryen. This makes him a cousin to the royal family, and in line for the throne by law if the Targaryens are gone.

He was a great warrior and quite charming, but he sucked as a leader. The IT was stable for 14 years because there was no one else around to claim it and because Jon Arryn kept Robert from wrecking things.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

'Cause the grandson of Aerys II, who sat on the throne no more that twenty years ago, is way better a brand than the great-grandson (or something like that) of the loser claimant who challenged Aerys' pre-pre-pre-pre-predecessor.

[FC_Lymond]

I can definitely see the OP's perspective. I think that the only reason to put a BF on the throne as a Targ is if it simply impossible to get a BF on the throne. And I do think it's possible.

Don't fake JonCon's death. Raise BFAegon among the GC. Wait for your best chance (right now it seems) and organize the numerous BF families in Westeros. In addition you have Illyrio's money and Varys causing havoc among your enemies. You have a great chance at doing it.

Otherwise, it's just confusion. Half your army is fighting for one thing. the other half another. You have to keep a secret or the whole thing falls apart. Once you have succeeded, then what? The popular fAegon theory does not make logical sense.

[Sword of the Morgan]

Targs still have support throughout the realm, though.

[Trogdor Targaryen]

They're not the Blackfyre Pretenders for nothing

[Lord Lannister]

So who would you follow?

The grandson of the rightful king come to take back his own from the incestuous usurpers.

Or the descendant of a female line of bastards marching to war under the battle cry "Fifth time is a charm!"

[Kienn]

It is pretty weird how these books get people thinking back in the medieval mindset... As if anyone is a "rightful" king just due to who their father was.

And every other "blood" implication. Sometimes it's actually pretty scary when it seems like people still think that way nowadays.