Serial Season 2: Deserter Storm

[JonArryn]

Luck is a vague concept, I guess. But, ok, so say the circumstances happened to fall into place in such a way that permit Jay to commit this crime and pin it on Adnan, or he discovers the facts afterwards and uses them. Either way it's an unlikely set of circumstances stacking up in such a way that Jay is permitted to do this- we can call this taking advantage of the opportunities presented to him, but we're still talking about a pretty unlikely set of circumstances all stacking up in such a way that they permit Jay to take advantage of them.

Each on their own maybe we shrug, but putting a just purchased cell phone immediately lent out, a car lent, a ride asked for, a Nisha butt dial, a complete lack of alibi... this is a pretty unlikely set of circumstances to all come together in this way, whether we want to frame it as Jay taking advantage of these circumstances is not really relevant. What's relevant is that it's the perfect storm for a frame up. It isn't picking and choosing just the opportune facts to construct a convenient narrative, these are more or less the only facts, and none of them contradict the heart of Jay's story (or frame up, in this version).

Your second paragraph I think hits it on the nail with my opinion too. I haven't listened to the last episode but I'll do it later today, but there is just too many things going against Adnan for me to believe he is innocent. One, two or three things maybe you can look past. But there are several pretty big things that are against him, and he can't explain any of them, he just has conveniently forgotten everything about that day. Even asking Hae for a ride which he did in his initial statement he changed.

And another interesting thing to me is that Adnan challenged Sarah to see if she could drive from the high school to the best buy and "commit" a murder in the specific time frame. He said it wasn't possible, and indeed it was barely doable, when Sarah tried. But if the murder was commited at another time and maybe even another place, Adnan isn't saying he is innocent there, he's just saying that the prosecution's story is incorrect, which seem a bit weird to me. The real murderer probably would know the murder wasn't commited like that, and the real murder probably is Adnan. This last part is a bit crackpot I guess, but if you look at it from my point, and I believe he is guilty, then it looks pretty manipulating and that he does know some things he don't want to share.

[john]

Luck is a vague concept, I guess. But, ok, so say the circumstances happened to fall into place in such a way that permit Jay to commit this crime and pin it on Adnan, or he discovers the facts afterwards and uses them. Either way it's an unlikely set of circumstances stacking up in such a way that Jay is permitted to do this- we can call this taking advantage of the opportunities presented to him, but we're still talking about a pretty unlikely set of circumstances all stacking up in such a way that they permit Jay to take advantage of them.

I don't think it is a particularly unlikely set of circumstances. The connections are all there. The only thing that would be lucky (or unlucky depending on your perspective) is the Nisha butt dial discrediting Adnan's statement. The rest is just stuff that happened.

I'm not trying to make a case for Adnan's innocence by the way. I agree the most likely scenario is that he did it. I just don't really agree with the logic Dana used that circumstances conspired against him to an unbelievable degree because it's perfectly believable if somebody is using those circumstances to their own advantage.

[Prosesskrift]

I agree with Ser Scott on this, but perhaps it is a lawyer thing. I haven't speculated that much as to whether Adnan is guilty or not. I never expected to be convinced one way or the other. What I do know, and I'd argue there can be little doubt of this from a legal standpoint (though others here might disagree), is that Adnan should never have been convicted based on the evidence presented. It is more than a little frightening that a seventeen year old boy can be put in prison for life based on such a weak case.

I found the actions of the prosecutors appalling, especially the racism involved, and the statement by the juror that Adnan's unwillingness to testify was a sign of guilt made me genuinely angry.

[Northernmonkey]

I've just finished the series and my head's spinning at the moment. On balance I tend to think Adnan is guilty, but I'm not convinced that it was premeditated.

I'm also a bit confused about all the timing. Why are they so convinced that it happened at 2.40 (or was it 3.40?)? Is there any reason why it couldn't have happened later, which would make the phone call to Adnan's new girlfriend less significant? I also wonder if there's any evidence that Adnan's phone was ever in Leakin Park - I think I'm right in saying that in one of the early episodes they said that their friend Patrick's house was also in the same cell phone area as Leakin Park.

I also wonder whether there was a third party involved. Maybe the dead serial killer or maybe someone dodgy who Jay got involved with.

[Turinqui-Calima]

I started listening to this on Thursday, finished yesterday afternoon and then spent all evening thinking about it. Amazing show! However, as much as I didn't expect it I really wish the last episode had had a bigger reveal or at least some suggested timelines that fit with the cell phone record. Instead I feel as I have as many questions now as I did after episode one.

I don't really know what to think yet. Maybe Adnan and Jay did it together, but for an unknown motive. Maybe Jay did it. With Jay knowing exactly where the car was I really have trouble imagining a third person doing it, unless it's someone connected to Jay... Read the Roy Davis theory and it does make sense. *sigh*

Jenn really seems like she is a big piece of the puzzle to me as she's also lying and adjusting her story. If the phone is in downtown Baltimore during the day, why are both Jay and Jenn saying he was at her house? This is before the murder so if they are covering something it doesn't seem like it has anything directly to do with the murder?

Does anyone know what Jenn's brother Mark says? Jay and Jenn both include him in their stories for the day, when Jay is supposedly at the mall with him and then hanging out with him, but the cell record shows the phone was downtown. Does Mark corroborate their stories?

Also, I don't really understand the relationship between Jay and Adnan. Adnan talks as if they barley knew each other, but he lends him his car and phone, and Adnan's track buddy states that it was common for Jay to drop him off and pick him up. I understand they smoked together but it does seem to me like they were more than acquaintances. 'I'm the criminal element' really does not sound like the actual explanation to why Jay is involved.

And the Patapsco Park sunset really bothers me. Why did Jay include that if there isn't some truth to it. That part of the story is so detailed.

I've been wondering about this too. What is it about his voice / how he talks that makes you think he's lying? I've read other people commenting that the way Adnan speaks to Sarah is off and I feel slightly stupid that I can't hear what other people are obviously hearing. I think he sounds a bit unnaturally chipper sometimes, but I never really knew what to make of that so didn't really manage to form much of a judgment about that in the end.

Yeah, I didn't hear it either. I was thinking to myself that this is how someone who has been innocently convicted would probably talk as well; weighing everything he says, taking pauses, making an effort to stay calm. This is a man who has been in prison for 15 years, I'm sure speaking to Sarah is a nice distraction and I think he does like Sarah, but it's also bringing up all the things that he has been trying to get over for the last 15 years.

Someone mentioned upthread that it's odd that Adnan isn't pointing fingers at Jay if he is innocent, and although he doesn't do that officially I think he very strongly implies it on a few occasions. I got the impression his lawyer is advising against making an official 'guess'.

Again, I think Adnan is hiding something, perhaps that he is the murderer, based on the evidence/testimony etc., but I just didn't get that vibe from the interviews.

[Northernmonkey]

Also, I don't really understand the relationship between Jay and Adnan. Adnan talks as if they barley knew each other, but he lends him his car and phone, and Adnan's track buddy states that it was common for Jay to drop him off and pick him up. I understand they smoked together but it does seem to me like they were more than acquaintances. 'I'm the criminal element' really does not sound like the actual explanation to why Jay is involved.

And the Patapsco Park sunset really bothers me. Why did Jay include that if there isn't some truth to it. That part of the story is so detailed.

I think they might have been selling weed together, or at least Jay was. That explains all the phone calls and driving back and forth around Baltimore.

As for the Patapsco Park story, I think it might have happened in the few days after the murder. We know that Jay and Adnan were still hanging out after the murder, and maybe Jay lost track of what day it happened.

[Eddard Stark is online]

I think they might have been selling weed together, or at least Jay was. That explains all the phone calls and driving back and forth around Baltimore.

As for the Patapsco Park story, I think it might have happened in the few days after the murder. We know that Jay and Adnan were still hanging out after the murder, and maybe Jay lost track of what day it happened.

If Adnan and Jay were selling weed together, wouldn't you just admit to that? Admitting to selling class B drugs but then having an alibi would surely make more sense than withholding the fact from the police. I guess of course Jay would deny it himself if he's pinning all the blame on Adnan, but I don't think Adnan would have anything to lose by admitting to selling drugs with Jay.

Yeah, I didn't hear it either. I was thinking to myself that this is how someone who has been innocently convicted would probably talk as well; weighing everything he says, taking pauses, making an effort to stay calm. This is a man who has been in prison for 15 years, I'm sure speaking to Sarah is a nice distraction and I think he does like Sarah, but it's also bringing up all the things that he has been trying to get over for the last 15 years.

Someone mentioned upthread that it's odd that Adnan isn't pointing fingers at Jay if he is innocent, and although he doesn't do that officially I think he very strongly implies it on a few occasions. I got the impression his lawyer is advising against making an official 'guess'.

Again, I think Adnan is hiding something, perhaps that he is the murderer, based on the evidence/testimony etc., but I just didn't get that vibe from the interviews.

I guess it's something that could be read both ways: He sounds earnest and unnaturally chipper at all times because he's an innocent man trying desperately to convince Sarah of his innocence; Or his cheerful tone is all fake and the long pauses (yet always coming back with that cheerful tone) are an attempt to manipulate, thinking to come up with a convincing explanation for whatever hole in his story she's uncovered, and overcompensating for his anger / feeling threatened with an overly cheerful tone. My feeling is that, unless you know the individual particularly well and already knew all their genuine mannerisms, etc. that it's futile to try and read too much into something like this, as it's so subjective.

I don't really know what to think yet. Maybe Adnan and Jay did it together, but for an unknown motive. Maybe Jay did it. With Jay knowing exactly where the car was I really have trouble imagining a third person doing it, unless it's someone connected to Jay... Read the Roy Davis theory and it does make sense. *sigh*

Jenn really seems like she is a big piece of the puzzle to me as she's also lying and adjusting her story. If the phone is in downtown Baltimore during the day, why are both Jay and Jenn saying he was at her house? This is before the murder so if they are covering something it doesn't seem like it has anything directly to do with the murder?

Does anyone know what Jenn's brother Mark says? Jay and Jenn both include him in their stories for the day, when Jay is supposedly at the mall with him and then hanging out with him, but the cell record shows the phone was downtown. Does Mark corroborate their stories?

Also, I don't really understand the relationship between Jay and Adnan. Adnan talks as if they barley knew each other, but he lends him his car and phone, and Adnan's track buddy states that it was common for Jay to drop him off and pick him up. I understand they smoked together but it does seem to me like they were more than acquaintances. 'I'm the criminal element' really does not sound like the actual explanation to why Jay is involved.

And the Patapsco Park sunset really bothers me. Why did Jay include that if there isn't some truth to it. That part of the story is so detailed.

I've seen the Roy Davies theory on Reddit as well. In fact I've read a number of detailed theories posited on there: Most seem to score around 5-70 or so. The two highest scoring I've seen are The Roy Davies theory and the theory that Jay killed Hae and framed Adnan. It doesn't necessarily mean Jay killed Hae as it garnered the highest score (833), but I guess it shows that it's the most popular theory among listeners / Reddit readers. From what I can see, most people in the Adnan or Jay did it corners believe it was a crime of passion rather than pre-meditated.

I don't remember hearing anything about Jenn's brother. Was he interviewed by police? Agree it does sound fishy that Adnan is keen to (I think) let Koenig infer that he barely knew Jay, yet lends the guy his phone and his car. Weird. What are the laws in the US about driving someone else's car anyway? In the UK you have to have insurance to let a named individual drive your car. Surely teens aren't gonna have that kind of insurance, and certainly not with their mates / acquaintances named on there.

I've read in the Reddit comments that a lot of people (who think Jay did it) thought the conversation at Patapsco state park with the sunset sounded too much like Jay was projecting his own thoughts and putting them into Adnan's mouth. From what I can recall the trip to Patapsco didn't fit in with Jay's timeline of what happened, although he did keep changing his story, so not sure if it did fit in one of them. I got the impression from listening that there wasn't time to get to Patapsco and incriminate Adnan in that particular story.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

SNL did a kind of funny Serial parody.

The Christina Guitierrez part near the end really got me.

[Eddard Stark is online]

I've just finished the series and my head's spinning at the moment. On balance I tend to think Adnan is guilty, but I'm not convinced that it was premeditated.

I'm also a bit confused about all the timing. Why are they so convinced that it happened at 2.40 (or was it 3.40?)? Is there any reason why it couldn't have happened later, which would make the phone call to Adnan's new girlfriend less significant? I also wonder if there's any evidence that Adnan's phone was ever in Leakin Park - I think I'm right in saying that in one of the early episodes they said that their friend Patrick's house was also in the same cell phone area as Leakin Park.

I also wonder whether there was a third party involved. Maybe the dead serial killer or maybe someone dodgy who Jay got involved with.

Basically because the police used the cell records to corroborate Jay's story. Because Jay stated there was a "The bitch is dead, come get me" call, and the state fitted the cell records around Jay's story, they concluded the killing had to happen at this time. I think in one of the later episodes (maybe 8 or 9?) Sarah finally rules out this call as something she doesn't think ever happened.

There's a diagram on the Serial website showing the cell records, Adnan's story and all of Jay's stories side by side, which apparently show that most of Jay's story is about 2 hours out from what the cell records show (which could account for the Nisha call). Except Adnan states he was without his phone and car all afternoon. His own story says he wasn't with his phone at the time of the Nisha call.

The Roy Davis theory argues Davis was the killer, who forced Jay to lie. Listening to episode 12, when Josh talks of how Jay was totally shitting himself that Adnan's family were gonna come and get him, I found it hard to swallow that Adnan could frighten Jay that much. If you go with the Roy Davies theory, I guess it could be that the person Jay was really so scared of was Davis, but being so scared of Davis, was too frightened to say it was him?

I don't know who the 'dead serial killer' is. Apparently Roy Davis is alive and currently serving life in prison.

[Commodore]

only through episode 7, but my guess is the reason Jay's story doesn't add up is he was more of an accomplice than he wants to admit

he and Adnan were both complicit, and he ratted out Adnan first, but he had to change around the parts of the story that implicated him, which is why some things are wrong and some things are right

here is the best theory I have seen:

Like most of you I want Adnan to be innocent. However I can’t shake the gut feeling I’ve always had, he and Jay were in cahoots. Jay clearly had some involvement, and Adnans phone and car were heavily wrapped up in it. The clincher for me is that he had the best chance of gaining access to Hae’s car. So I've fit a time line to this theory (also using some dramatic licence), and since I've spent too many hours digging around and obsessing about this, I'm going to add it to the pile for what it's worth. It's something of a cleansing exercise for me; the intention now is to go back to my normal life. Obviously speculation, frustratingly I don’t think we’ll ever know. Also, you can make the call log fit almost any theory if you try hard enough. Have a go, it’s fun.

Assumptions:

• Adnan was the murderer, Jay an accomplice
• The murder was not premeditated
• Cell tower pings are not 100% reliable, but being routed through the closest tower has the greatest probability
• Jay, Jenns and Adnans version of events are all completely unreliable; each player has different motives for distorting or withholding the truth
• The murder takes place between 2.36 - 3.40
• Jay was not at Jenns house until after the murder
• Burial takes place between 7 - 8pm
• I haven't tried to speculate on each call, just the ones central to this narrative

Adnan goes to school as normal on the morning of the 13th.
At 10.45, at the start of lunch break, he calls Jays house, and tells him to get out of bed cause he's coming over

He picks Jay up and the two hang out for a couple of hours, smoke some weed and hit the mall to pick up a present for Stephanie
Adnan discusses his feelings regarding Hae, their breakup, her new boyfriend, he becomes indignant and emotional and eventually decides to confront her to talk things out.

This needs to be in private, and feeling Hae will be unwilling to give him a hearing, Adnan leaves his car with Jay so he can get some time alone with her on the pretence of needing a lift.

Knowing this may not work, he prearranges with Jay to pick him up at the library as a fall back
Having originally intended to skip psychology class, Adnan arrives over an hour late so that he has a chance to catch Hae afterwards.

Meanwhile, Jay cruises around the area of Woodlawn, waiting for word
Adnan speaks with Hae after class but she refuses to give him a lift citing her busy schedule, which includes picking up her cousin, an appointment at Randlestown followed by a work shift.

And before all that she needs to run an errand to Best Buy
Frustrated and unsuccessful, Adnan calls Jay at 2.36 "Hey it's me, come get me" "Ok I'll be there in 5" "Cool"

After being spurned by Hae, Adnan is feeling increasingly desperate and decides to intercept her at Best Buy. The two drive over there, spot her car and wait for her to show up

Eventually she returns, and is angry to see Adnan waiting. To get him off her back she agrees to give him five minutes. The two get into her car and Jay waits in Adnans car alongside, killing time with his phone

A heated discussion turns into a full blown argument and in a fit of rage Adnan strangles Hae

After a while Jay realises something is not right and checks it out, he finds a panicked and frenzied Adnan... "what the **** did you do?!". Andan pleads for Jay to help him move the body to the trunk, and in a spur of the moment decision, Jay agrees and becomes an accomplice

Adnan is immobile with shock, not knowing what to do, Jay calls Phil and Patrick, two members of the "criminal element" who he believes can offer some candid advice

Snapping back to reality, the two quickly agree they should get rid of the body in the infamous Leakin Park, but not during daylight so for the time being they plan to stash the car at the Park n Ride and return after dark. In the mean time they need to go about their days as usual

Right now it’s important to have alibis, so on the way to leave Adnan at track, Jay calls Jenn's house to make sure she's home so he can hang out there for a couple of hours

At Jenns, Jay is clearly out of sorts, and is anxiously waiting for a phone call from Adnan

Adnan calls after track and Jay picks him up and they drive around for a while, planning their next move. They decide to bury the body that night after mosque, and stop by Home Depot to pick up some equipment

Once their plan is in place; they decide to call to Cathy's for a further alibi. Smoking weed has the opposite of the intended calming effect and the two's behaviour is notably strange. While there Adnan gets a call from the police enquiring after Hae. Jay and Adnan are spooked and promptly leave to discuss

Rattled by the call they decide they must get rid of the body straight away. Adnan is worried about showing up late for prayers and arousing suspicion, so he calls Yasser to cover for him

Thinking ahead for Jays alibi, they call Jenn to arrange a pick up at Westview Mall, but to sit tight until she gets a page

After the burial, they ditch Haes car on Edondson avenue, page Jenn and drive in the direction of the Mosque stopping at Westview on the way

Adnan leaves the equipment with Jay to dispose of and they part ways

[Eddard Stark is online]

only through episode 7, but my guess is the reason Jay's story doesn't add up is he was more of an accomplice than he wants to admit

he and Adnan were both complicit, and he ratted out Adnan first, but he had to change around the parts of the story that implicated him, which is why some things are wrong and some things are right

here is the best theory I have seen:

Like most of you I want Adnan to be innocent. However I can’t shake the gut feeling I’ve always had, he and Jay were in cahoots. Jay clearly had some involvement, and Adnans phone and car were heavily wrapped up in it. The clincher for me is that he had the best chance of gaining access to Hae’s car. So I've fit a time line to this theory (also using some dramatic licence), and since I've spent too many hours digging around and obsessing about this, I'm going to add it to the pile for what it's worth. It's something of a cleansing exercise for me; the intention now is to go back to my normal life. Obviously speculation, frustratingly I don’t think we’ll ever know. Also, you can make the call log fit almost any theory if you try hard enough. Have a go, it’s fun.

Assumptions:

• Adnan was the murderer, Jay an accomplice
• The murder was not premeditated
• Cell tower pings are not 100% reliable, but being routed through the closest tower has the greatest probability
• Jay, Jenns and Adnans version of events are all completely unreliable; each player has different motives for distorting or withholding the truth
• The murder takes place between 2.36 - 3.40
• Jay was not at Jenns house until after the murder
• Burial takes place between 7 - 8pm
• I haven't tried to speculate on each call, just the ones central to this narrative

Adnan goes to school as normal on the morning of the 13th.

At 10.45, at the start of lunch break, he calls Jays house, and tells him to get out of bed cause he's coming over

He picks Jay up and the two hang out for a couple of hours, smoke some weed and hit the mall to pick up a present for Stephanie

Adnan discusses his feelings regarding Hae, their breakup, her new boyfriend, he becomes indignant and emotional and eventually decides to confront her to talk things out.

This needs to be in private, and feeling Hae will be unwilling to give him a hearing, Adnan leaves his car with Jay so he can get some time alone with her on the pretence of needing a lift.

Knowing this may not work, he prearranges with Jay to pick him up at the library as a fall back

Having originally intended to skip psychology class, Adnan arrives over an hour late so that he has a chance to catch Hae afterwards.

Meanwhile, Jay cruises around the area of Woodlawn, waiting for word

Adnan speaks with Hae after class but she refuses to give him a lift citing her busy schedule, which includes picking up her cousin, an appointment at Randlestown followed by a work shift.

And before all that she needs to run an errand to Best Buy

Frustrated and unsuccessful, Adnan calls Jay at 2.36 "Hey it's me, come get me" "Ok I'll be there in 5" "Cool"

After being spurned by Hae, Adnan is feeling increasingly desperate and decides to intercept her at Best Buy. The two drive over there, spot her car and wait for her to show up

Eventually she returns, and is angry to see Adnan waiting. To get him off her back she agrees to give him five minutes. The two get into her car and Jay waits in Adnans car alongside, killing time with his phone

A heated discussion turns into a full blown argument and in a fit of rage Adnan strangles Hae

After a while Jay realises something is not right and checks it out, he finds a panicked and frenzied Adnan... "what the **** did you do?!". Andan pleads for Jay to help him move the body to the trunk, and in a spur of the moment decision, Jay agrees and becomes an accomplice

Adnan is immobile with shock, not knowing what to do, Jay calls Phil and Patrick, two members of the "criminal element" who he believes can offer some candid advice

Snapping back to reality, the two quickly agree they should get rid of the body in the infamous Leakin Park, but not during daylight so for the time being they plan to stash the car at the Park n Ride and return after dark. In the mean time they need to go about their days as usual

Right now it’s important to have alibis, so on the way to leave Adnan at track, Jay calls Jenn's house to make sure she's home so he can hang out there for a couple of hours

At Jenns, Jay is clearly out of sorts, and is anxiously waiting for a phone call from Adnan

Adnan calls after track and Jay picks him up and they drive around for a while, planning their next move. They decide to bury the body that night after mosque, and stop by Home Depot to pick up some equipment

Once their plan is in place; they decide to call to Cathy's for a further alibi. Smoking weed has the opposite of the intended calming effect and the two's behaviour is notably strange. While there Adnan gets a call from the police enquiring after Hae. Jay and Adnan are spooked and promptly leave to discuss

Rattled by the call they decide they must get rid of the body straight away. Adnan is worried about showing up late for prayers and arousing suspicion, so he calls Yasser to cover for him

Thinking ahead for Jays alibi, they call Jenn to arrange a pick up at Westview Mall, but to sit tight until she gets a page

After the burial, they ditch Haes car on Edondson avenue, page Jenn and drive in the direction of the Mosque stopping at Westview on the way

Adnan leaves the equipment with Jay to dispose of and they part ways

Where did you find this theory? Was it on Reddit? I'd be curious to see the original post, mostly so I can read the comments and find out what other readers think of it.

If you're only up to episode 7, you'll enjoy episode 8. That's the one that's all about Jay.

[JonArryn]

only through episode 7, but my guess is the reason Jay's story doesn't add up is he was more of an accomplice than he wants to admit

he and Adnan were both complicit, and he ratted out Adnan first, but he had to change around the parts of the story that implicated him, which is why some things are wrong and some things are right

here is the best theory I have seen:

Like most of you I want Adnan to be innocent. However I can’t shake the gut feeling I’ve always had, he and Jay were in cahoots. Jay clearly had some involvement, and Adnans phone and car were heavily wrapped up in it. The clincher for me is that he had the best chance of gaining access to Hae’s car. So I've fit a time line to this theory (also using some dramatic licence), and since I've spent too many hours digging around and obsessing about this, I'm going to add it to the pile for what it's worth. It's something of a cleansing exercise for me; the intention now is to go back to my normal life. Obviously speculation, frustratingly I don’t think we’ll ever know. Also, you can make the call log fit almost any theory if you try hard enough. Have a go, it’s fun.

Assumptions:

• Adnan was the murderer, Jay an accomplice
• The murder was not premeditated
• Cell tower pings are not 100% reliable, but being routed through the closest tower has the greatest probability
• Jay, Jenns and Adnans version of events are all completely unreliable; each player has different motives for distorting or withholding the truth
• The murder takes place between 2.36 - 3.40
• Jay was not at Jenns house until after the murder
• Burial takes place between 7 - 8pm
• I haven't tried to speculate on each call, just the ones central to this narrative

Adnan goes to school as normal on the morning of the 13th.

At 10.45, at the start of lunch break, he calls Jays house, and tells him to get out of bed cause he's coming over

He picks Jay up and the two hang out for a couple of hours, smoke some weed and hit the mall to pick up a present for Stephanie

Adnan discusses his feelings regarding Hae, their breakup, her new boyfriend, he becomes indignant and emotional and eventually decides to confront her to talk things out.

This needs to be in private, and feeling Hae will be unwilling to give him a hearing, Adnan leaves his car with Jay so he can get some time alone with her on the pretence of needing a lift.

Knowing this may not work, he prearranges with Jay to pick him up at the library as a fall back

Having originally intended to skip psychology class, Adnan arrives over an hour late so that he has a chance to catch Hae afterwards.

Meanwhile, Jay cruises around the area of Woodlawn, waiting for word

Adnan speaks with Hae after class but she refuses to give him a lift citing her busy schedule, which includes picking up her cousin, an appointment at Randlestown followed by a work shift.

And before all that she needs to run an errand to Best Buy

Frustrated and unsuccessful, Adnan calls Jay at 2.36 "Hey it's me, come get me" "Ok I'll be there in 5" "Cool"

After being spurned by Hae, Adnan is feeling increasingly desperate and decides to intercept her at Best Buy. The two drive over there, spot her car and wait for her to show up

Eventually she returns, and is angry to see Adnan waiting. To get him off her back she agrees to give him five minutes. The two get into her car and Jay waits in Adnans car alongside, killing time with his phone

A heated discussion turns into a full blown argument and in a fit of rage Adnan strangles Hae

After a while Jay realises something is not right and checks it out, he finds a panicked and frenzied Adnan... "what the **** did you do?!". Andan pleads for Jay to help him move the body to the trunk, and in a spur of the moment decision, Jay agrees and becomes an accomplice

Adnan is immobile with shock, not knowing what to do, Jay calls Phil and Patrick, two members of the "criminal element" who he believes can offer some candid advice

Snapping back to reality, the two quickly agree they should get rid of the body in the infamous Leakin Park, but not during daylight so for the time being they plan to stash the car at the Park n Ride and return after dark. In the mean time they need to go about their days as usual

Right now it’s important to have alibis, so on the way to leave Adnan at track, Jay calls Jenn's house to make sure she's home so he can hang out there for a couple of hours

At Jenns, Jay is clearly out of sorts, and is anxiously waiting for a phone call from Adnan

Adnan calls after track and Jay picks him up and they drive around for a while, planning their next move. They decide to bury the body that night after mosque, and stop by Home Depot to pick up some equipment

Once their plan is in place; they decide to call to Cathy's for a further alibi. Smoking weed has the opposite of the intended calming effect and the two's behaviour is notably strange. While there Adnan gets a call from the police enquiring after Hae. Jay and Adnan are spooked and promptly leave to discuss

Rattled by the call they decide they must get rid of the body straight away. Adnan is worried about showing up late for prayers and arousing suspicion, so he calls Yasser to cover for him

Thinking ahead for Jays alibi, they call Jenn to arrange a pick up at Westview Mall, but to sit tight until she gets a page

After the burial, they ditch Haes car on Edondson avenue, page Jenn and drive in the direction of the Mosque stopping at Westview on the way

Adnan leaves the equipment with Jay to dispose of and they part ways

I do like this theory, although I'm not completely certain that it wasn't premeditated. I think it could be, although that's one thing we'll never know and only can speculate about.

Having Jay wait in a car close to Hae's car does make a lot of sense though, since it makes Jay a lot more involved. I do think there is a lot of truth to the trunk-scene, where he sees Hae's dead body in the trunk. If that was the first time he saw the body, or if he and Adnan moved it there together, doesn't really matter to me.

One thing that I guess could have happened is. We have a couple of 17 year old kids, and as we all know rumor and appearance is very important during that age. You want to be cool, you want to be tough. And here we have Jay, who has that reputation and in his own words is the "criminal element" of Woodlawn. He is smoking weed a lot with his friend Adnan, and one day when they're both high Adnan says he wants to kill his ex-girlfriend. Adnan's rage has been built a long time, but he has kept it hidden from others. But he can share it with Jay. Jay is "criminal" himself and would never snitch. Adnan is very good at keeping his facade and let no one see he's actually sad about the break-up. Jay, who doesn't take the murder-talk serious, and just think Adnan is talking, agrees and spurs him. Says "yeah, you should kill that bitch. She deserves it". One day they both decide to kill her and Jay hasn't yet really realised what he has gotten himself into. He still thinks it's cool and still doesn't really take it seriously, and it can be a cool story to tell in the future.

He sits by when Adnan commits the murder, and now he sees the body. He realises that Adnan was capable of it. It sinks in. This is more than he bargained for and he is now an accomplice too. After that, the day does go by, and then I think your theory about them having the body in the car while visiting Cathy is spot on. The reason they both storm out is because the police just called and they need to get rid of the body, fast.

Now Jay makes up a story with as little involvement as possible from himself, and Adnan just doesn't "remember" anything noteworthy about the day. One thing that was interesting is when they visit Jay and ask him stuff. He's upset about the whole thing and after a lot of questions, asks if it wasn't Adnan who killed Hae then was it? He was there, and saw the body with his own eyes. That's an approach towards a murder case involving yourself that is much more realistic than anything Adnan has said in the phone calls. Adnan isn't mad, he's not mad at anyone, because he didn't "do" anything that day.

Anyway, this post got a bit long but basically there is only two possibilities here in my view. Adnan did it or Jay did it. And I'm probably 99 to 1 percent sure that Adnan is the one who carried out the murder, gathered from the evidence and what I've heard. It's a bit far-fetched to speculate about a third party having a hold on Jay by some kind. If that was the case, I think the police would see that in some way. People said these were two skilled detectives. And him being manipulated by a third party to frame Adnan or him doing it to clear the guilt from him and a third party, seriously, I don't see that happening. Of course, it's possible. But the most reasonable thing to think here is that Jay and Adnan are the ones involved. It would be so many things not fitting if a third party was involved all the time.

[Turinqui-Calima]

If Adnan and Jay were selling weed together, wouldn't you just admit to that? Admitting to selling class B drugs but then having an alibi would surely make more sense than withholding the fact from the police. I guess of course Jay would deny it himself if he's pinning all the blame on Adnan, but I don't think Adnan would have anything to lose by admitting to selling drugs with Jay.

The time when the phone record shows that the phone is in downtown Baltimore is when Jay is supposedly hanging out at Jenn's house, so it wouldn't provide an alibi. At this time the phone is showing a call to Jenn's house, so it's pretty obvious that Jay is in fact NOT at Jenn's house, if he was the one with the phone. It's just so odd to me that Jay would lie about a time when everyone know's Hae was alive.

I don't remember hearing anything about Jenn's brother. Was he interviewed by police?

Jay says he hung out with Mark, Jenn's brother, during the time when the phone was in downtown Baltimore. The Serial blog mentioned it here.

I've read in the Reddit comments that a lot of people (who think Jay did it) thought the conversation at Patapsco state park with the sunset sounded too much like Jay was projecting his own thoughts and putting them into Adnan's mouth. From what I can recall the trip to Patapsco didn't fit in with Jay's timeline of what happened, although he did keep changing his story, so not sure if it did fit in one of them. I got the impression from listening that there wasn't time to get to Patapsco and incriminate Adnan in that particular story.

I got the same feeling about the Patapsco Park story. To me it fits that Jay, someone who is known to not be believed when he tells stories and who likes to think of himself as a criminal element, would say the things he claims Adnan said in Patapsco Park.

Anyway, this post got a bit long but basically there is only two possibilities here in my view. Adnan did it or Jay did it. And I'm probably 99 to 1 percent sure that Adnan is the one who carried out the murder, gathered from the evidence and what I've heard. It's a bit far-fetched to speculate about a third party having a hold on Jay by some kind. If that was the case, I think the police would see that in some way. People said these were two skilled detectives. And him being manipulated by a third party to frame Adnan or him doing it to clear the guilt from him and a third party, seriously, I don't see that happening. Of course, it's possible. But the most reasonable thing to think here is that Jay and Adnan are the ones involved. It would be so many things not fitting if a third party was involved all the time.

I think you are giving the cops way too much credit. The story they did come up with just doesn't fit the evidence, such as assuming the 2.36pm call is the 'come get me' call. I think they felt that Adnan did it and wanted Jay's story to fit. I just feel that there weren't enough investigation made into the inconsistencies in Jay/Jenn/Adnan's stories and too many threads left hanging for me to feel comfortable with their ability to spot something like that.

[Eddard Stark is online]

Thanks for that 'Stragglers' blog link. Damn, I really wish you could create a poll on this forum. Like, you can get a feel on Reddit as to which theories are most popular with Redditors by the number of points they have. I'd still be interested to see how opinion was spread on this forum in a quantifiable way as to who did it or what happened.

[Commodore]

http://thefederalist.com/2014/12/23/serial-has-one-of-those-big-flapping-in-the-breeze-red-flags-of-journalism/

And after more than a year of investigating, fact is, Koenig was unable to unearth any useable exculpatory evidence. (Though Deirdre Enright, the head of the Innocence Project Clinic at University of Virginia Law School, who dropped a mysterious serial killer into the mix at the end of the series, is on the case.) And as the end of the project neared, Koenig pleaded for Adnan to recover a memory to help her exonerate him – “I still want to know what you were doing that afternoon.” He has nothing for her.

As a journalistic moment it’s not pretty. Koenig clearly nurses an affection for Adnan. I don’t mean it in an unseemly romantic way. Yet, listen to those friendly phone conversations she has with a man convicted of the premeditated murder his girlfriend and subsequent dumping of her body into a shallow grave in a city park. She has doubts? Some of these conversations went on before Koenig came to the realization that Jay’s timeline might be off or that “Nisha call” might be a butt dial. On those rare occasions that an unpleasant question crops up in their friendly exchanges, Koenig is almost apologetic for making Adnan uncomfortable. She gives him the space and time to get back to her with a tidy story later on...

...

You’re a really nice guy? Not to dismiss all the excellent questions she brings up or any of her superb journalistic follow-up, but Koenig spends an inordinate amount of time pondering various preposterous reasons nice-guy Adnan might not be guilty. For instance:

1 – He was too courteous and nice. You can’t fake it.

2 – His friends say he wasn’t the type of guy to do it.

3 – He loves his parents.

4 – He’s probably not a sociopath.

5 – No one lies for 15 years.

6 – He almost cries sometimes when they’re on the phone.

7- “Why on earth” would a guilty man cooperate with her in this type of investigative journalism?

I’d answer most of these like this: It takes a special conceit to believe your emotional IQ is so high you can’t be manipulated. Then again, the one way to avoid being exploited is by vigilantly nursing skepticism – and even then, you can’t always escape being duped. I’d answer number six like so: If someone going to advocate for my cause, why wouldn’t I cooperate? If I’m serving a life sentence for murder, and someone has intimated that they can prove I didn’t strangle my ex-girlfriend, why wouldn’t I obliged them? What do I have to lose?

And speaking of Hae … well, Serial doesn’t.

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

http://thefederalist.com/2014/12/23/serial-has-one-of-those-big-flapping-in-the-breeze-red-flags-of-journalism/

In general, I agree with that article. My opinion on Serial is that it started out strong, and somewhere around the Jay episode, ended up fizzling. Eventually it became clear that Koenig wasn't going to uncover anything particularly new or useful and Serial ultimately wasn't going to have much new to say about the case. And that, I think, makes it an interesting failure.

It's funny, Commodore. In The Fall thread, you said there are two ways to approach a crime/killer show - the police procedural vs. the "mind of the killer" stuff. Serial started out as a police procedural, ran through whatever material they had, and ended up as a "mind of the killer" story. And I don't think Koenig has the credentials or the insight into human character necessary to pull off the latter (if it's even something that can be pulled off in real life, which I kind of doubt).

As for Hae, Koenig did devote an entire episode to her, and would have done more, if not for the family's understandable disinterest in the show. So I'm not sure how terribly fair a criticism it is.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

And after more than a year of investigating, fact is, Koenig was unable to unearth any useable exculpatory evidence. (Though Deirdre Enright, the head of the Innocence Project Clinic at University of Virginia Law School, who dropped a mysterious serial killer into the mix at the end of the series, is on the case.) And as the end of the project neared, Koenig pleaded for Adnan to recover a memory to help her exonerate him – “I still want to know what you were doing that afternoon.” He has nothing for her.

Not necessarily exculpatory evidence in the strictest sense, but Koenig contacts two witnesses who contradict the prosecution's narrative of the crime- Asia and the woman whose name I completely forget who co-managed the wrestling team with Hae and said she spoke where her after the prosecution claimed Hae was dead (after 2:36). She manages to cast serious doubt on the prosecution's timeline, and with it serious doubts about the competence of Adnan's defense. That's not insignificant.

You’re a really nice guy? Not to dismiss all the excellent questions she brings up or any of her superb journalistic follow-up, but Koenig spends an inordinate amount of time pondering various preposterous reasons nice-guy Adnan might not be guilty. For instance:

1 – He was too courteous and nice. You can’t fake it.

2 – His friends say he wasn’t the type of guy to do it.

3 – He loves his parents.

4 – He’s probably not a sociopath.

5 – No one lies for 15 years.

6 – He almost cries sometimes when they’re on the phone.

7- “Why on earth” would a guilty man cooperate with her in this type of investigative journalism?

I disagreed with Koenig's apparent appeal to these things as reasons she believes Adnan is innocent. But I think they're perfectly interesting observations on their own, it's worthwhile to get at the questions of what it takes to be a killer, and whether it doesn't, in fact, take much and killers can and do mostly pass as (and are) average people in the rest of their lives- all of these points were made in the episode which focused on this subject.

Serial also made sure to insert the Adnan is guilty argument into the final episode through Dana. Koenig may have concluded he was probably innocent, but they didn't ignore the things pointing to his guilt, they gave them a platform.

And speaking of Hae … well, Serial doesn’t. Not in a way that offers us a real insight into the pain her family went through or the sort of young woman she was. Though Koenig spends many hours painting a vibrant, fully-realized picture of a good-natured and intelligent Adnan, what we learn about Hae is largely superficial. She is “smart” and “stubborn.” There are a few hasty words from her other ex-boyfriend (they only dated for 13 days, but she changed his life) and lines from her diary entries (lines that, incidentally, undermine Adnan’s narrative of their post-breakup relationship.) Obviously there are barriers to telling Hae’s story. But had she been fully realized, listeners may have had a better moral awareness of what Adnan was accused and been more dubious. Who knows? The reporter might have, as well.

For not having the family's cooperation, they did the best they could. I thought the account of Hae's mother at the trial was particularly moving.

[Raja]

So, Jay's given an interview here. It's fairly detailed, and has a bunch of stuff we haven't been privy to yet.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Was just coming here to link that. At first I was excited to finally hear from him, but after getting through it it was just another version of the same story he told 15 years ago. The basic story is the same, but the timeline and details change again. Hopefully the rest of the interview gets into some more interesting areas.

[Commodore]

pre-taped interviews and selective quotations are a huge red flag. The journalist decides what the listener gets to hear (Koenig may have posted complete transcripts of all her interviews, I haven't searched). They can leave out things that don't fit a particular narrative, and claim constraints of time if questioned about it.

Jay's interview is quite convincing.

Koenig comes off as a naive liberal reporter hoping to find a Muslim man who was wrongly convicted by a racist society (she even looks the part). In the end, she found nothing.

You can imagine the grizzled detectives rolling their eyes. They probably have inconsistencies in testimony and timelines for every single case they work on.