Your Strategy to Conquer this Region: The North

[Barty]

1. I am not talking about sending them a postcard with the exact time and place I would attack. I would not allow Roose time to marshall his forces (closer to 4,000 after a year of training a new garrison, but beside the point). Think Rodrik at Winterfell. I won't waste time with a siege, because I don't havew the time. I would use ropes and ladders and storm it the same day I arrive.

2. I can still use the Broken Branch to ship supply and men most of the way.

3. So? They would have more time than any of the other first targets, but it's still not enough to actually raise thier banners. Even what they can raise is minor compared with the other targets, and my host outnumbers them greatly.

4. I did. 15,000 take it from the garrison, 10,000 men march north. About 5,000 men (minus minor losses) are still there untapped even after step 8. The Boltons are out of the game, the Umbers and the Karstarks are farther away than my forces, and there are now 20,000 men poised to attack Winterfell.

In peace time Lords tend to maintain a garrison of a couple of hundred - if you think you can take any major castle in the North(DreadFort, WF, Karhold, Last Hearth) with only 8-10k men while they have a garrison of 200 each then you are sadly mistaken. And do you really think no one is going to notice a foreign fleet floating up the river? There have to be a few dozen villages along the way. Lord Bolton will never hear of the unknown fleet coming up his own river? Dont you think he might have a few river galleys always keeping watch?

And the dreadfort has never fallen - not even in the worldbook is there a mention of the dreadfort ever falling to storm(though winterfell was stormed and burned twice - thats before it got a second wall). The whole strength of the North couldnt storm it and was forced to starve it out. And you think you can take it with 10k men? Did you hear Jon's description of the dreadfort? He flat out told Stannis its impossible to take the dreadfort by surprise(They apparently have beacon fires to warn of approaching armies and I presume fleets as well) and to have any hope of taking the castle he needs siege engines, towers and battering rams. And that was against a garrison of 50, half of whom were servants and the remaining were greybeards and infirms.

[The Wolves]

There is no reason to go conquer the North it's really useless and doesn't have any worth I would just leave it to the Starks and their men.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

There is no reason to go conquer the North it's really useless and doesn't have any worth I would just leave it to the Starks and their men.

Well, nobody except Paxter Redwyne was a fan of letting Balon have the North.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Is anyone familiar with any major pitched battles in which southron forces defeated a Northern army on Northern soil in the history of Westeros?

I'm sure the Ironborn have experienced some limited successes, having tried to invade the North so many times over the centuries. But they are not really inclined to large scale land battles, having no cavalry, and limited numbers of archers. So most of their victories were likely surprise attacks, or else achieved fairly close to the shore.

Are there any records of any major victories over Northern forces on their home turf? Ever?

[Ramsay Gimp]

Is anyone familiar with any major pitched battles in which southron forces defeated a Northern army on Northern soil in the history of Westeros?

I'm sure the Ironborn have experienced some limited successes, having tried to invade the North so many times over the centuries. But they are not really inclined to large scale land battles, having no cavalry, and limited numbers of archers. So most of their victories were likely surprise attacks, or else achieved fairly close to the shore.

Are there any records of any major victories over Northern forces on their home turf? Ever?

Nope.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

snip

Are you going to lose 20,000 men per castle to build a ramp of corpses? Or are you going to sit before their walls for up to two years, giving the North ample time to prepare?

And how many men are you prepared per mile of marching? One? Two? Ten? There are thousands of miles per army.

Uhm, this is really hard. I need more men.

With this numbers my best hope is to land on the other side of the wall and try to plot something with the wildings. Promise everything they want and use my westerosi knowldge to assault the wall, or ship them to the other side. Of course, they wont listen to me and probably the Starks will crash me before I can do anything. If it works use them as fodder as much as I can. Of course I would give them as much armor and weapons as I can.

The second posibility is to try to plot with Boltons and arrange with them a quick assault together either on WH or LH, in order to low the Stark forces by making one of the big houses to switch sides, and an other being crushed. Not an easy task anyway, and I lack of a step 2 anyway. Without Boltons I probably would do the same on WH, but probably fail.

The mighty wildlings getting utterly curbstomped by Stannis, who commanded about two percent the strength of the North? Who've got less males than the North got soldiers, toddlers and old men included?

I swear your estimates of the North's numbers go up every time. 70,000 men? Seriously?

If you look at them every four years only, after I got some new information and updated my estimations accordingly.

Good strategy and it could work with more men. But after Storming White harbour, the Dreadfort, and Karhold you wouldn't have any men left to hold the North. I don't now if 7500 men could even take the Dreadfort. If they could you would probably lose more than half when taking the castle.

No, they can't. Not even if they take two years to do so.

I am not talking about throwing lives away at a fully garrisoned fortress, I am talking about smashing peace-time garrison of a couple hundred men total from the castle and the area around it with several thousand men, with surprise on my side. Think Golden Company in the Stormlands. Manderly has the most at White Harbor, but it's still a hell of alot fewer men than KL's 2,000 men. More like 200-500 men tops. Take the seats of power, capture noble hostages, destroy any opposition, and move on.

KL is a freaking city. Compared even to pretty lousy castles, it's a stroll in the park.

Is anyone familiar with any major pitched battles in which southron forces defeated a Northern army on Northern soil in the history of Westeros?

I'm sure the Ironborn have experienced some limited successes, having tried to invade the North so many times over the centuries. But they are not really inclined to large scale land battles, having no cavalry, and limited numbers of archers. So most of their victories were likely surprise attacks, or else achieved fairly close to the shore.

Are there any records of any major victories over Northern forces on their home turf? Ever?

Yes, the Wolf's Den, a couple of times. Wait, those forays never led anywhere even remotely constant or in-land, the Starks always threw the attackers out.

[TallTyrion]

Is anyone familiar with any major pitched battles in which southron forces defeated a Northern army on Northern soil in the history of Westeros?

I'm sure the Ironborn have experienced some limited successes, having tried to invade the North so many times over the centuries. But they are not really inclined to large scale land battles, having no cavalry, and limited numbers of archers. So most of their victories were likely surprise attacks, or else achieved fairly close to the shore.

Are there any records of any major victories over Northern forces on their home turf? Ever?

There's numerous references to Moat Callin throwing back hosts and never falling but nothing specific. So no southorn host has even entered the North as fas as we know.

[Pod The Impaler]

30000 is not enough men.

However, in general, if we're going to give it a go, here's an unusual strategy...

Start time for plotting / infiltration: Winter

Onset of open hostilities: It must be spring, because winter arriving = game over.

1 - At the earliest stage, I make overtures of food and steel to the wildlings. The watch will not be happy, but among my select wildling allies, there are to be no clashes with the Night's Watch, or else they get no help (and this will be on their honour). I will promise them a great invasion south of the Wall, better land and the chance for "wives". I will also fatten my treasury by hacking down some trees on the wildling coast to bring to Braavos (no weirwoods, obviously). The money will be important later. As well, I will make inroads into Skaagos, to take it over - be it by patronage, marriage, force, assasination. I must secure the ability to use Skaagos as a base.

- Wildling warriors shall be brought in great numbers (with Skaagos as a waypoint) to be turned loose in the North, and do what they will - form raiding parties, well-trained by my men and armed with real steel. We are talking about thousands of them. Once dumped south of the wall, they can go reaving throughout the North. Since it is spring, they should be able to last a long time, fighting and foraging. Essentially the purpose here is to eat up the manpower of the North, in a guerilla war, roughly in the northeast regions. They should avoid taking on any large forts, but run the northmen around in circles by attacking isolated villages, and avoiding conflict with large armies. Take plunder, disrupt supply and communications, , steal wives, father children, etc. More and more wildlings will be brought in the longer it goes on - men, women, beasts. (Eventually this force will be large enough to act as a reserve for my army, and also colonial in nature.)

- The north may rally thinking something is wrong on Skaagos, and I can arrange things so they think Skaagos has gone rogue again, perhaps allied with the wildlings. If they respond and send a force, this is when I can destroy their fleet with my 20 ships, and annihilate their army if it lands on Skaagosi soil. Once White Harbour's fleet is destroyed, I make sure the North does not raise another.

- With all that nice gold, from before, I will send an envoy to hire some sellswords and Unsullied. If Braavos objects, I will tell them that the Unsullid are not to live as slaves, and will be freed at war's end.

2 - Once the North's forces are either cut off an wiped out on Skaagos, or are scattered all over the place fighting Wildlings, this is when shift to the overt campaign. The defenders of White Harbour will be drawn out and then ambushed, followed by storming of the fortress. If the Wildlings have the means, they can help, but it may be necessary to get some sellswords in there, just to take and hold the city itself. Once White Harbour is taken, the Unsullied will garrison it; they will make the most tenacious of defenders. Any sellswords that live can thereafter be sent to take Moat Cailin from the North, and then threaten the Kingsroad.

- Wait for the inevitable response, as the North should call out its banners and march in force, now that a major city his been taken. In fact, the march of those hosts out of their home fortresses is exactly the desired effect. Major siege by major siege, we cannot win this thing - only mess the North up for many years in a stalemate, until winter comes and we starve.

- At this point, it is time to use my real army - the 30000. As each of the major bannermen call out their forces, we strike them with all our host, defeating their smaller hosts one by one before they can link up into a force larger than we are able to handle. Widow's Watch, Ramsgate, Oldcastle, etc. may fall, but we will avoid getting into any sieges of major fortresses until we have depleted any troops which would be used to guard it. Basically, I am counting on my 30000 being better than the smaller hosts they face, repeated over and over. Warfare in the open is our friend, and laying siege our enemy. Once each fort has no significant men left to defend it, nor means to supply it, hopefully they will be induced to surrender or at least militarily negated - a fortress cannot follow and engage you, merely the men stationed there.

- Mind you, if they contemplate not engaging you, and walling up for a siege, remember that the wildling irregulars are ravaging the countryside; every unfortified town and village is in need of help, so they cannot simply wait it out. The threat to the countryside is the threat to their own supply of food and men. That means riding out of their fortresses to fight, at some point.

3 - Hostages - Hostages are important, for this war will last probably several years. Each of the highborn bannermen taken are weapons to coax their houses into submission or at least inaction.

If the hostage is male of fighting age, they may bend the knee and live, but must take some wildling woman to wife, and father children upon her before being freed and trusted as a bannerman of mine. Male children will be kept close under guard, as wards, to preserve the threat of the end of the family line, should the family resist. Any male too old to fight / breed will be sent to the Wall as a recruit.

If the hostage is female and unmarried (including widows), she can willingly take one of my own bannermen to husband, or a wildling chieftain (she will have a choice of whom), and then bear them children, in order to be freed. Marriages will be consecrated under weirwoods, according to northern custom and honour. Married women's husbands can voluntarily give up, and live with their wives and their children by voluntarily submitting to captivity (and not in their own lands, until war's end); this takes them out of the game. Otherwise, the women and girls may be ransomed off for either gold or to secure her family's submission.

- Obviously, those who are captive will be in some peril of death, but the main point is that hostages can be used to sever the northern lines of family interconnection, where northern allegiances are replaced by wildling marriages, or marriages bringing them into my allegiance.

- As for Starks, well... Stark hostages are more valuable than all others. Ideally, any female hostages are candidates for intermarriage to my own clan. Male hostages are the currency of war, only to be considered in exchange for my own blood. So long as any are around and active, they will fight, because they have no choice, really.

4 - The End Game: If all goes well enough, my army and allies can march up the White Knife and take Winterfell. This would involve inflicting several key military defeats on them first, but the whole point is that by the time we take on the big bosses and their main host, all those other bannermen's hosts which would have helped them are already defeated. They will not be able to mobilize a host of comparable size, and we have the advantage in every engagement, that's the plan anyway. A "final battle" may be necessary, but on our terms. Our terms will depend on a lot of things - supplies, hostages, the lateness of the season, and so on. Winterfell can probably withstand years of siege, and the approach of winter is the starks' advantage, but hopefully in the preceding years of war, we have made it clear that time is not on the Starks' side, because:

- The eastern port of White Harbour is ours, and by itself enough to keep our side in the game with fresh supplies and men.

- The wildlings are living off their land, eating their food, breeding with their men and women in ever greater numbers. Their bannermen want to get back to ruling their own lands, to have their families reunited, to bring order to the chaos I have created. That must take place while they can still harvest food, or else the upcoming winter coming will destroy them at the same time as it destroys us.

- By the next spring, many highborn families in the realm will have family ties with either my own forces, or the wildling irregulars; meanwhile, the ties between the northern houses are diminishing, including between the Starks and their bannermen.

So, hopefully by this means, the Starks can be defeated, before the arrival of winter. Not destroyed, for continuing legitimacy may demand that I marry into House Stark anyway.

The large infusion of wildling blood may prove a challenge socially, but the North may be the better for it in the end. The old ways may experience something of a resurgence south of the wall. Merit and leal service will matter more than blood in a lot of cases. Wildlings too may eventually learn to bend the knee.

Hard to say where this invasion would even originate - much of it is dependent on actually preserving the Old Gods, and fighting the old way.

Oh, and the Unsullied I hired for garrison duty get to live out their lives, first as slave soldiers, then just as city guards who can otherwise do as they please at war's end. Perhaps I shall start a program where freed Unsullied get to live their lives out in the Night's Watch.

So ... sound strategy or nonsensical pipe dream?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

So ... sound strategy or nonsensical pipe dream?

Nonsensical pipe dream.

The wildlings can't do jack shit. They got barely 1% of the Northern's populace and it's worse on the military front. They'll tell you to shove your commands anyway, they'll do as they please.

And the whole marching and victory en detail doesn't work in the North. The distances are far too large and you'll be the one who'll loose men to guerrillas wherever you go.

[Chaircat Meow]

The idea of raiding the White Knife region until it forces the Starks to meet you in battle utterly ignores the fact that the Northern forces would have the same advantage that the Umber forces had over Stannis's troops up in the Umber territory. Only now you would be talking about 30,000 prime northern elite soldiers, instead of a couple of thousand Umber leftovers.

30,000 Northern first choice soldiers would smash armies 100,000 strong on their home turf. Because they would bleed the enemy dry long before the main engagement. They would wear them down, and pick the ground of their battles according to their local knowledge of the terrain, and 8000 years of smashing all invaders that tried to conquer them.

Soldiers don't magically become superhuman just because they are fighting on their own territory. If the southron commander used his scouts well and chose a good position in which to offer battle any such advantage would be negated.

I don't see why northerners can bleed dry invading armies on their soil to such an extent that those forces can no longer constitute a threat when no one else seems to have this ability.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

BBE:

Altough its true what you said about wildings and stannis, those are the same kind that with far fewer numbers than mance, made a lot of trouble for Umbers and Starks with Red Beard who went far enough to kill himself a Lord of Winterfell in battle. Im not saying it will work, probably not. But Im talking about more men than Red Beard, better armed and with a westerosi force as an ally.

WOIAF has only made that point stronger.

Raymun’s host numbered in the thousands , by all accounts, and they fought their way as far south as Long Lake. There, Lord Willam Stark and the Drunken Giant, Lord Harmond of House Umber, brought their armies against them. With two hosts surrounding him, and the lake to his back, Redbeard fought and died, but not before slaying Lord Willam.

[Nyrhex]

Yeah the Stormland castles seems pretty weak and lightly garrisoned though. Jon says that even with 200 men the Dreadfort is still formidable. I think Stannis had about 3000 men at that point and attacking the Dreadfort would be a suicide mission.

Also the Stormlands in tiny compared to the North. The march from Widows watch to the Dreadfort would probably take as much time as marching across the whole of the Stormlands. After your initial strike on White harbour the element of surprise is lost. Soon as Manderly gets attacked he sends Ravens to Winterfell. The Starks would inform all other major castles and they would no longer have peace time garrisons.

The Stormland castles are the same as any other. The surprise is the main reason why JonCon had it so well in his opening moves. With 200 men the Dreadfort is a bitch. That is why I send 7,500 men to take it by storm.

I am not marching from Widow's Watch to the Dreadfort, a part of my fleet lands the northern host directly at the Weeping River, which is a spitting distance from the Dreadfort. I have 30,000 men, of those only 15,000 land at White Harbor.

But the problem is that in peace times (not alike the SL now) the Lord has 1000 men that can be called at arms in the sourrandings in a few hours. Add the ravens factor, and everybody will know from you after the first strike.

Is the better plan we can do anyway, with the amount of men given.

Hours? More like days. And 1,000 men, sure, but not soldiers.

Storming Castle costs your army a lot of men. That's why most armies prefer a siege. Even with 200 men garrisoned at the Dreadfort your army would lose thousands storming the walls of the castle.

You are waaaay over-estimating the losses from assaults. They are costly, but not to the level of 10 of yours for every 1 of the enemy's level. And people don't usually fight to the last man.

Stannis has probably the most battle hardened force of southron knights that exists in Westeros, and yet Jon said that his entire force would be cut to pieces if they tried to march a hundred leagues down the kingsroad next to the Umber lands, because the Umbers know every rock and every tree along the way.

Note that this is not even a march across difficult terrain. It is down the Kingsroad. Note too that this is not a first choice Umber army at full strength. It is the dregs of the Umber forces, those left behind after the Greatjon took his prime forces south with Robb. And Jon says they would cut Stannis's veteran 1300 knights to pieces before they ever reach the Dreadfort.

The distances involved in moving large armies across the North mean that familiarity with the terrain becomes a much greater advantage, as armies are exposed to the terrain for much longer periods while on the march.

Now, if the leftover Umber dregs can do that to Stannis's hardened forces, what could the full Umber strength achieve on their home territory? What could the Bolton, Manderly, Dustin, Karstark etc. forces achieve on their home territory?

The idea of raiding the White Knife region until it forces the Starks to meet you in battle utterly ignores the fact that the Northern forces would have the same advantage that the Umber forces had over Stannis's troops up in the Umber territory. Only now you would be talking about 30,000 prime northern elite soldiers, instead of a couple of thousand Umber leftovers.

30,000 Northern first choice soldiers would smash armies 100,000 strong on their home turf. Because they would bleed the enemy dry long before the main engagement. They would wear them down, and pick the ground of their battles according to their local knowledge of the terrain, and 8000 years of smashing all invaders that tried to conquer them.

Based on the hints in the World Book, the North has been dealing with invaders for most of their history - when not fighting wars of consolidation in their own territory. There is likely not an area of any significant size that has not seen a battle of some kind take place in its immediate surroundings over the course of 8000 years. A well educated Northern lord likely knows the history, details and outcome of every major battle that has taken place in his territory in recorded history. So they know which hill and which river or canyon has which tactical or strategic advantage.

You could not take the North with 100,000 troops. Even if you could get the 100,000 troops there in the first place.

The problem here is that you actually take Jon as a credible source. Jon is talking shit.

A force of 20 green boys is not going to cut anything to pieces. Intel was 50 men garrison, servants and the old. That was'ntt going to hold anything. The distance from the Wall to Deepwood Motte is greater than to the Dreadfort. Stannis marches, slowly, builds a ram, and takes the castle, prepares to march on Winterfell, and by the time a raven with news of all this arrives to Roose he is still at Barrowton. It's a way to give Jon the Wildlings and for Stannis and Roose to meet at Winterfell for the Battle of the Ice.

The numbers you give for the North, for a short notice call up, is ridiculous. If Roob Stark could raise more than 18,000 men for his trip south, he would. Then you go with Northern master race who can use 30,000 men to smash 100,000 men in a field battle and conveniently forget how ~17,000 Northmen had thier asses handed to them by 20,000 Lannisters. Hell, Karstark Spearmen got thier asses handed to them by the enemy's feint.

1. Roose mustered about 3,000 during the Wot5K to go south on short notice, and there were additionally hundreds left at the Dreadfort, meaning about 4,500 Bolton men that can be mustered quickly. It takes time to reach the Dreadfort, meaning Lord Bolton would be forewarned from WH and WW. So let's say he musters the amount Roose did when he went south, which is 3,000. 3,000 men on top of a castle can delay 7,500 men below it long enough for the 5,500 Umber and Karstark men to arrive.

2. The Hornwood is actually probably pretty far from the Branch.

3. The Hornwoods have more than enough time. When WH falls that means Ramsgate and WW will be warned, so you'll probably lose lots taking these two castles. And by the time you reach the Hornwood the full Hornwood army of about 2,000 will face your army, which should be about 6,000 now if we account for the losses taking WW and RG. You'll win, but it won't be a very easy fight.

4. So about 9,000 from WH plus about 4,000 from Hornwood, besieging a castle that borders the Starks and the Dustins. 5,000 Dustins + Some Tallharts will be marching northeast and the Starks southwest. The Bolton-Karstark-Umber army should also be arriving. And the siege of Cerwyn should take some time.

5. Okay, so Bolton + Karstark + Umber + Dustin + Tallhart + Stark v. Approximately 12,000 soldiers. Not much of a fight.

Most of the Stormlander soldiers perished at the BW. I doubt the GC could take, say, Griffin's Roost as it was in 150 AC.

1. Let's make the distinction between short notice = a couple of weeks to get his men ready and set out to meet Robb at Winterfell, and short notice = there are men at the gate at 3 a.m.

2. Oh come on now. It's between Manderly and Bolton, the Broken Branch goes directly there. Any more to the west and we are at Cerwyn's lands.

3. Ramsgate, Widow's Watch, and White Harbor, are at the same time. The Dreadfort as well. Hornwood is the only one with some notice, but it's about the same notice Estermont had before it was taken by the GC.

And How do figure those numbers? 1,500 men lost on two minor castles? 2,000 men show up within a couple of days?

4. Cerwyn Castle is not worth a siege. It's a meeting point before taking on Winterfell and the main Stark host. Bolton is not going anywhere since he is one of the first targets. Umber and Karstark are too far away. The Starks have a host far smaller than mine, and they can't link up in time with the rest of thier bannermen.

5. Wll over 75% of the Stormlords survived the Blackwater. The castles have the same garrisons as before, they did not need to send the garrisons, and most of the army came back after the nobles provided hostages to the crown.

In peace time Lords tend to maintain a garrison of a couple of hundred - if you think you can take any major castle in the North(DreadFort, WF, Karhold, Last Hearth) with only 8-10k men while they have a garrison of 200 each then you are sadly mistaken. And do you really think no one is going to notice a foreign fleet floating up the river? There have to be a few dozen villages along the way. Lord Bolton will never hear of the unknown fleet coming up his own river? Dont you think he might have a few river galleys always keeping watch?

And the dreadfort has never fallen - not even in the worldbook is there a mention of the dreadfort ever falling to storm(though winterfell was stormed and burned twice - thats before it got a second wall). The whole strength of the North couldnt storm it and was forced to starve it out. And you think you can take it with 10k men? Did you hear Jon's description of the dreadfort? He flat out told Stannis its impossible to take the dreadfort by surprise(They apparently have beacon fires to warn of approaching armies and I presume fleets as well) and to have any hope of taking the castle he needs siege engines, towers and battering rams. And that was against a garrison of 50, half of whom were servants and the remaining were greybeards and infirms.

Surprise is to mean that I have until I reach the coast. I expect the North to know that something is up by the time I arrive. In the books Torrhen's Square was reached before Winterfell had any idea who the fuck was invading them, and that is as far from the coast as Hornwood, even if we shove Hornwood as far as the White Knife. If the map I linked is any good, it's about 250 miles upriver from the Narrow Sea, while Torrhen's Square is about 300 miles upriver from the Sunset Sea. I expect to have the same surprise Dagmer had. Especially since he was raiding the coast a bit before going there, and then also along the Saltspear.

And people need to stop cite the world book to me. From the little I've seen of it, it's bullshit. I don't care what it says. Dagmer did it after a worse start. No reason I can't do it as well. Likewise with Jon Snow the armchair general who does'nt even know how Daeron took Dorne.

1. Are you going to lose 20,000 men per castle to build a ramp of corpses? Or are you going to sit before their walls for up to two years, giving the North ample time to prepare?

2. And how many men are you prepared per mile of marching? One? Two? Ten? There are thousands of miles per army.

3. KL is a freaking city. Compared even to pretty lousy castles, it's a stroll in the park.

1. No, I am going to attack the 200 men garrison from 200 directions with several thousand men at arms and put the castle to the sword if not enough surrender on the spot. The scenario calls for me to avoid sieges at that point like the plague.

2. 250 miles, with boats carrying supplies, should prove less than dramatic, attrition-wise.

3. A city with walls that have never been breached, 2,000 soldiers, several hundred scorpions and spitfires planned for siege, and trebuchets that can change firing positions, an inner keep with another garrison of over a hundred. Better than most castles on the continent. Tywin Lannister entered as a friend for a reason.

[Trickrs]

The North has 70,000?

What those 50,000 were doing while Theon held Winterfell?

[Irish]

I'd have to choose the Iron Islands.

With 30,000 men, and the Ironborn's naval might, you can negate Moat Cailin and not be in trouble of a Stark counter-invasion (lmaonofleet).

Since we're not trying to stop reinforcements coming from the south, Moat Cailin is practically useless. Send the Iron Fleet with 5000 men around the south and up the eastern coast of Westeros. Once you receive word that they're in position, send out 2500 men in groups of 100-250 Ironborn to burn whatever they can get their hands on and try to draw the Starks out peace-meal.

Send out another 2500 to take Bear Island, and order the Iron Fleet, to cut off White Harbour's trade lane.

The Starks will probably muster at Winterfell, and while they're mustering, I'll burn the western coast, taking as many lords/ladies captive as possible, and putting everything else to the torch. When the Starks march west to confront me, have the Ironborn burn the east coast.

Then it's just a war of attrition, really. I could hit anywhere with impunity and use a raid-style war to just grind the Northern host down. The North can't really sustain a large host anyway, thanks to its climate, so me having smaller forces moving around will be able to sustain a long campaign, while the northmen can't. If the Northmen don't muster their full strength, I'll bloody them to the point of having no men. If they do, they'll starve.

Once the Northmen are sufficiently weakened (bring their numbers down to 10-15,000 or so), I'd deploy whatever forces I have to just north of Moat Cailin, since it would allow the Eastern and Western forces to meet within a couple of days of landing.

Try to take White Harbour as soon as possible, and try to keep the rivers between our hosts. If Stark does try to cross, we will have a definite advantage. If he doesn't, send out men to besiege every holding on the east coast.

==================

With 45,000 men my odds of success increase drastically. Send out 2-3000 men to harry like previously, but I'd march the rest straight to wherever Stark was mustering (assuming Winterfell). Worst comes to worst, I lose the battle and my force is reduced drastically. In which case, I adopt the previous strategy of burning and grinding until Stark is forced to capitulate.

[Nyrhex]

The North has 70,000?

What those 50,000 were doing while Theon held Winterfell?

50,000 Northmen when Robb marches south, when Wildlings attack the Wall, when Roose returns North.

[Trickrs]

Since we're not trying to stop reinforcements coming from the south, Moat Cailin is practically useless. Send the Iron Fleet with 5000 men around the south and up the eastern coast of Westeros. Once you receive word that they're in position, send out 2500 men in groups of 100-250 Ironborn to burn whatever they can get their hands on and try to draw the Starks out peace-meal.

The logistics on this one makes my head hurts.

[Ramsay Gimp]

50,000 Northmen when Robb marches south, when Wildlings attack the Wall, when Roose returns North.

:bowdown: :lol:

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Soldiers don't magically become superhuman just because they are fighting on their own territory. If the southron commander used his scouts well and chose a good position in which to offer battle any such advantage would be negated.

I don't see why northerners can bleed dry invading armies on their soil to such an extent that those forces can no longer constitute a threat when no one else seems to have this ability.

The distances. In the North it's always the distances. Ten times the distance is basically a thousand times as difficult for an invader.

BB

Altough its true what you said about wildings and stannis, those are the same kind that with far fewer numbers than mance, made a lot of trouble for Umbers and Starks with Red Beard who went far enough to kill himself a Lord of Winterfell in battle. Im not saying it will work, probably not. But Im talking about more men than Red Beard, better armed and with a westerosi force as an ally.

WOIAF has only made that point stronger.

Raymun’s host numbered in the thousands , by all accounts, and they fought their way as far south as Long Lake. There, Lord Willam Stark and the Drunken Giant, Lord Harmond of House Umber, brought their armies against them. With two hosts surrounding him, and the lake to his back, Redbeard fought and died, but not before slaying Lord Willam.

Yes, but Willam Stark and Harmond Umber raised their armies in very short time, basically only bringing what they had available on the spot. Probably 500 and 200, just to give some numbers.

The Stormland castles are the same as any other. The surprise is the main reason why JonCon had it so well in his opening moves. With 200 men the Dreadfort is a bitch. That is why I send 7,500 men to take it by storm.

The friggin door was open at Griffin's Roost!

With 200 men, the Dreadfort is impossible. With 7,500, it's still impossible or why do you assume that long-dead Stark didn't manage to take it during two years with all the might of the North at his back?

I am not marching from Widow's Watch to the Dreadfort, a part of my fleet lands the northern host directly at the Weeping River, which is a spitting distance from the Dreadfort. I have 30,000 men, of those only 15,000 land at White Harbor.

Spitting distances in the North are damn long. If you can sail up the Weeping Water at all.

Hours? More like days. And 1,000 men, sure, but not soldiers.

The same days you need marching towards.

You are waaaay over-estimating the losses from assaults. They are costly, but not to the level of 10 of yours for every 1 of the enemy's level. And people don't usually fight to the last man.

If you got sufficient siege engines and stuff. Building those takes months.

The problem here is that you actually take Jon as a credible source. Jon is talking shit.

Your assumption.

A force of 20 green boys is not going to cut anything to pieces. Intel was 50 men garrison, servants and the old. That was'ntt going to hold anything. The distance from the Wall to Deepwood Motte is greater than to the Dreadfort. Stannis marches, slowly, builds a ram, and takes the castle, prepares to march on Winterfell, and by the time a raven with news of all this arrives to Roose he is still at Barrowton. It's a way to give Jon the Wildlings and for Stannis and Roose to meet at Winterfell for the Battle of the Ice.

And is covered the entire way by the Northmen.

The numbers you give for the North, for a short notice call up, is ridiculous. If Roob Stark could raise more than 18,000 men for his trip south, he would. Then you go with Northern master race who can use 30,000 men to smash 100,000 men in a field battle and conveniently forget how ~17,000 Northmen had thier asses handed to them by 20,000 Lannisters. Hell, Karstark Spearmen got thier asses handed to them by the enemy's feint.

Let's avoid that style of discussion please.

1. Let's make the distinction between short notice = a couple of weeks to get his men ready and set out to meet Robb at Winterfell, and short notice = there are men at the gate at 3 a.m.

2. Oh come on now. It's between Manderly and Bolton, the Broken Branch goes directly there. Any more to the west and we are at Cerwyn's lands.

3. Ramsgate, Widow's Watch, and White Harbor, are at the same time. The Dreadfort as well. Hornwood is the only one with some notice, but it's about the same notice Estermont had before it was taken by the GC.

And How do figure those numbers? 1,500 men lost on two minor castles? 2,000 men show up within a couple of days?

4. Cerwyn Castle is not worth a siege. It's a meeting point before taking on Winterfell and the main Stark host. Bolton is not going anywhere since he is one of the first targets. Umber and Karstark are too far away. The Starks have a host far smaller than mine, and they can't link up in time with the rest of thier bannermen.

5. Wll over 75% of the Stormlords survived the Blackwater. The castles have the same garrisons as before, they did not need to send the garrisons, and most of the army came back after the nobles provided hostages to the crown.

Surprise is to mean that I have until I reach the coast. I expect the North to know that something is up by the time I arrive. In the books Torrhen's Square was reached before Winterfell had any idea who the fuck was invading them, and that is as far from the coast as Hornwood, even if we shove Hornwood as far as the White Knife. If the map I linked is any good, it's about 250 miles upriver from the Narrow Sea, while Torrhen's Square is about 300 miles upriver from the Sunset Sea. I expect to have the same surprise Dagmer had. Especially since he was raiding the coast a bit before going there, and then also along the Saltspear.

And people need to stop cite the world book to me. From the little I've seen of it, it's bullshit. I don't care what it says. Dagmer did it after a worse start. No reason I can't do it as well. Likewise with Jon Snow the armchair general who does'nt even know how Daeron took Dorne.

1. No, I am going to attack the 200 men garrison from 200 directions with several thousand men at arms and put the castle to the sword if not enough surrender on the spot. The scenario calls for me to avoid sieges at that point like the plague.

Which 200 directions? There is only so much space around a castle, or do you plan a four-dimensional battle?

2. 250 miles, with boats carrying supplies, should prove less than dramatic, attrition-wise.

250 miles whereto? To the Dreadfort? That's about three weeks. Attrition should be manageable. And afterwards?

3. A city with walls that have never been breached, 2,000 soldiers, several hundred scorpions and spitfires planned for siege, and trebuchets that can change firing positions, an inner keep with another garrison of over a hundred. Better than most castles on the continent. Tywin Lannister entered as a friend for a reason.

A city that has never been attacked. Undermanned, understaffed and a damn small inner castle garrison, taking it's importance into account.

For comparison, Constantinople 1453 was defended by 7,000 men and had a tenth the size of KL. And despite the Turks using heavy cannons, it took them seven weeks. Stannis was almost in the city after seven hours.

The North has 70,000?

What those 50,000 were doing while Theon held Winterfell?

The distances again. Nobody told them and they couldn't march to Winterfell in time anyway.

[Free Northman Reborn]

The problem here is that you actually take Jon as a credible source. Jon is talking shit.

And people need to stop cite the world book to me. From the little I've seen of it, it's bullshit. I don't care what it says. Dagmer did it after a worse start. No reason I can't do it as well. Likewise with Jon Snow the armchair general who does'nt even know how Daeron took Dorne.

Ah. So. Jon is talking shit, the World Book is talking shit, but Nyrhex knows what he's talking about. Gotcha.

[Chaircat Meow]

The distances. In the North it's always the distances. Ten times the distance is basically a thousand times as difficult for an invader.

Well that's fair enough. Invading Russia doesn't end well, unless you can secure objectives by making them come to you, like the UK and France did in the Crimea in 1854-56.

It is also why I'm proposing to stay near WH and the White Knife and goad the Stark to come to me. Only after inflicting a crippling moral blow on the Starks would I try and send forces anywhere else. I'd also secure WH and Moat Cailin.