Your Strategy to Conquer this Region: The North

[kimim]

I'm wondering about the way the seasons would work. The long summer would help the invaders. It's not like they're trying to conquer Russia; they have years. However, then they face years of winter in this huge, unfriendly terrain. Would the long summer give the invaders enough time to conquer the North, control its people, and arrange their own logistics for surviving the winter?

[Ser Greenseer]

They were already next to Moat Cailin. If nothing else they might have been able to move around it anyway, they are allies of the Crannogmen after all. Who know secret paths through the swamp.

You answer it yourself. They had nothing to lose by doing it, since they thought they were going to lose the war anyway.

Lets also not forget that until Tywin got killed, Cersei started fucking up the realm at an incredible pace (Littlefinger had counted on it taking several years for her to "destroy herself", as he tells Sansa) and Stannis arrived and started raising hell, the North was pacified. Even in ADWD Roose still has the support of many of the Northern nobles, as can be seen from how many attended his wedding.

Moat Cailin isn't really that close to the twins and it still takes time to set up an attack and get through the bogs with thousands of men.

They were just looking for any excuse to turn on Robb to get themselves more power not because they thought Robb was going to lose, they might have done the red wedding even if the Lannister's didn't get the Tyrell's on their side.

[Pod The Impaler]

That is not going to work. The Wildlings can't send these numbers without their families starving. The only reason Mance assembled such a host is because he set a migration of the entire people and risked starving them all.

No, the Starks will sort it out. And without submarines and sonar, your fleet will not be awaiting them without being discovered months earlier.

It's a city and a castle. It's always ready to withstand a siege. Maybe not for two years, but for weeks or months.

The problem is that you use logistics and communication lines difficult for an army of the 21st century, while attributing the North the communication skills of chimpanzees.

- False assumption. How else did the wildlings ever mount any raids or even wars against the North before ? And yeah, they did - read the text if you don't believe it.

- False assumption. How did Stannis manage to trap the Ironborn off Fair Isle ? How did the Three Daughters catch the Blacks' fleet ? No sonar or subs or attenpted sarcasm here. The Skagosi are not known to have warships of any kind. The Manderly fleet would not be expecting 20 warships lurking abround Skagos, unless they were tipped off beforehand. The only other ships that pass by that area come and go from either Eastwatch (not involved) or Skagos (already on-side).

- Since when? I assume no better communications than the North has itself. The difference was already pointed out, by someone who mentioned only the major centres have maesters and ravens. (And ravens, as is well known, can be shot down by skilled archers.) The rest must be by ship or by rider. Beacon fires are mentioned, but those can communicate only very limited information. The lack of communications works both ways - the northmen are assumed to become fully aware of the invasion after White Harbour falls. Skagos ? That's likely by ship only, and the starting assumption here to start is that Skagos' 3 ruling clans have been co-opted to treachery with all kinds of incentives. Out in the bush, there's only what men and horses can tell - even more vulnerable to being stopped. (After all, Robb found his way unseen to Oxcross, and that's through a part of Westeros much more densely populated.)

- You have to prepare for a siege, to have any hope of repelling it.That depends on having warning in advance. White Harbour's men would only be those in the town itself, not the banners that the Manderly's might hope to call upon if they had more warning. If White Harbor's fleet was sunk off Skagos, who would they be expecting? They would not even know that's happenned until enemy ships arrive at White Harbour instead of their own. At best, Oldcastle might get off a warning as they pass there, but if you're smart you neutralize Oldcastle so it doesn't happen. There is no reason that they should be any more prepared than the men at Griffin's Roost were for Jon Connington's return with the Golden Company, or the Shield Islands were from the Ironborn attack.

- Few people know the results of battles unless they hear tell of it from survivors who escape. (Witness the sack of Winterfell by the Boltons. They suppressed knowledge of the fact that they were the ones who killed the defenders and burned it. Civilians ? Few lived to tell of it, and those that did were marched off to captivity.) Even after the North wises up, it takes time to ride out and call the banners, and coordinate where to send them. Time which your own force can spend marching, with plan in mind, with outriders watching your foes' movements and screening your march.

The big problem I see is, what if a Wildling is captured during phase 1 and spills the beans? Even if all he knows is who supplied the arms/armor, and not why, the Boltons/Karstarks/Umbers will probably be able to see that something fishy is going on

I would not imagine they'd know much. Someone came from the south offering the good life, to bold men willing to raid. They got caught up, much the same as they have many times before. You would not tell them much, and they're not so smart as to know one sort of kneeler lord from another. Lie to them.

If the Wildlings never mounted any attacks or wars before this idea would have more merit; but they've been done so lots of times, so it's not so unusual.

Their own chieftains might know you helped them to it, but not necessarily why.

[TheNinjaDC]

With only 30,000?

:lol:

[Free Northman Reborn]

I think the problem that unnecessarily sustains the tenuous argument of the "North is conquerable" crowd, is that Martin makes it clear from history, the views of knowledgeable individuals and geographical factors that the North is un-conquerable, but he suspends logic in this respect for plot convenience during the current books.

The current plot requires the Starks to suffer great losses during the early series, and thus the Ironborn are shown to make huge gains relatively easily while Robb is away. And the Northmen are either shown to be strategic morons again and again, or rather average, poorly armored fighters when he needs them to be for plot convenience (Ser Rodrik, I'm talking about you).

All of this while he wants to retain the fact that the North was unconquered for 8000 years, that a host like that of Stannis would be cut to pieces if they dared march over the Umbers territory, even with the main Umber army away etc.

In short, Martin wants the best of both worlds. The wildlings and Ironborn need to remain a credible threat to the North for plot reasons, but at the same time the North could not be conquered and held by any outside force in history.

And the geography and its logistical implications for an invading medieval army strongly supports the latter.

If you think about it, with no cavalry and almost no archers, how could the Ironborn ever achieve consistent success against a regular medieval army of the type that the North can deploy if properly mobilized? They cannot. Nor can they conduct sieges to capture major strongholds in any way that does not involve subterfuge or surprise attack.

Same with the wildlings, who really should be nothing more than a nuisance, rather than this supposed existential threat which never quite seems to materialize.

To conclude, Martin twisted the rules of his own worldbuilding about as far as he possibly could to weaken the North in the current series, but this is not a situation that is realistic given the facts he himself established in creating the North.

[Pod The Impaler]

The current plot requires the Starks to suffer great losses during the early series, and thus the Ironborn are shown to make huge gains relatively easily while Robb is away. And the Northmen are either shown to be strategic morons again and again, or rather average, poorly armored fighters when he needs them to be for plot convenience (Ser Rodrik, I'm talking about you).

In short, Martin wants the best of both worlds. The wildlings and Ironborn need to remain a credible threat to the North for plot reasons, but at the same time the North could not be conquered and held by any outside force in history.

And the geography and its logistical implications for an invading medieval army strongly supports the latter.

If you think about it, with no cavalry and almost no archers, how could the Ironborn ever achieve consistent success against a regular medieval army of the type that the North can deploy if properly mobilized? They cannot. Nor can they conduct sieges to capture major strongholds in any way that does not involve subterfuge or surprise attack.

The Ironborn once had the Riverlands under their heel, all the way to Harrenhal. And they do have archers (or else how was Theon so skilled?). Yet that being said, their "Old Way" reaver mentality inhibits any tactics that would serve them in good stead. Basically, all you have to do is have a well-manned inland fortress, and they'll just try to storm it and die by the thousands. No, truly they had no chance to hold all the North, not the way they tried to. Theon was basically right where Balon was wrong. Oddly enough, what few advantages they briefly gained were mostly thanks to Theon doing things he was never supposed to do.

[Free Northman Reborn]

The Ironborn once had the Riverlands under their heel, all the way to Harrenhal. And they do have archers (or else how was Theon so skilled?). Yet that being said, their "Old Way" reaver mentality inhibits any tactics that would serve them in good stead. Basically, all you have to do is have a well-manned inland fortress, and they'll just try to storm it and die by the thousands. No, truly they had no chance to hold all the North, not the way they tried to. Theon was basically right where Balon was wrong. Oddly enough, what few advantages they briefly gained were mostly thanks to Theon doing things he was never supposed to do.

You make an interesting point about the Ironborn once ruling the Riverlands. It is interesting because it raises the question of whether the Ironborn forces consisted of more diversified units back then, similar to your standard mainland army. Which would imply a different type of warfare against Ironborn armies in those days. In any case, that actually strengthens my point, because even when the Ironborn had the resources of the Riverlands behind them, they still could not conquer the North. So how much more improbable does it then become that they could succeed in this day and age, when all they have are naval reavers, and no cavalry.

Regarding archers - Theon lived his entire life in the North. That's where he learned the bow. I do not recall any Ironborn archer beign referred to in all the rest of the series. Only hand to hand fighters. I'm not saying they have not a single archer in the entire Iron Isles. But they do not seem to make up any significant portion of the Ironborn armies, and thus cannot match the archers of a regular army like that of the North.

[Pod The Impaler]

Regarding archers - Theon lived his entire life in the North. That's where he learned the bow. I do not recall any Ironborn archer beign referred to in all the rest of the series. Only hand to hand fighters. I'm not saying they have not a single archer in the entire Iron Isles. But they do not seem to make up any significant portion of the Ironborn armies, and thus cannot match the archers of a regular army like that of the North.

I just figured that shipborne archery was actually of importance - given the fact that there are no cannons, so when ships clash at range, they likely do so with archery of some sort, before coming together for a clash of steel on steel. It is not without precedent.

[Hodor the Articulate]

I'm pretty sure there's a mention of IB being skilled archers in the book, but I don't remember where.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

1. Let's make the distinction between short notice = a couple of weeks to get his men ready and set out to meet Robb at Winterfell, and short notice = there are men at the gate at 3 a.m.

Yeah, I'm sure the Dreadfort won't hear of a huge fleet coming north from the Sisters, White Harbor, or its own villages downriver. More than enough time to marshall at least a thousand.

2. Oh come on now. It's between Manderly and Bolton, the Broken Branch goes directly there. Any more to the west and we are at Cerwyn's lands.

The Hornwood is between the White Knife and the Branch

3. Ramsgate, Widow's Watch, and White Harbor, are at the same time. The Dreadfort as well. Hornwood is the only one with some notice, but it's about the same notice Estermont had before it was taken by the GC.

Impossible.

And How do figure those numbers? 1,500 men lost on two minor castles? 2,000 men show up within a couple of days?

WW will be forewarned, and Ramsgate more so. Than means casualties, and time to raise the Hornwood men-at-arms.

4. Cerwyn Castle is not worth a siege. It's a meeting point before taking on Winterfell and the main Stark host. Bolton is not going anywhere since he is one of the first targets. Umber and Karstark are too far away. The Starks have a host far smaller than mine, and they can't link up in time with the rest of thier bannermen.

First, Dustin? Tallhart? And for God's sake, it's a castle. You need to take it.

5. Wll over 75% of the Stormlords survived the Blackwater. The castles have the same garrisons as before, they did not need to send the garrisons, and most of the army came back after the nobles provided hostages to the crown.

Roughly 20,000 men at the BW. Most were Stormlanders. At least half of the Stormlander force perished.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

I'd have to choose the Iron Islands.

With 30,000 men, and the Ironborn's naval might, you can negate Moat Cailin and not be in trouble of a Stark counter-invasion (lmaonofleet).

Since we're not trying to stop reinforcements coming from the south, Moat Cailin is practically useless. Send the Iron Fleet with 5000 men around the south and up the eastern coast of Westeros. Once you receive word that they're in position, send out 2500 men in groups of 100-250 Ironborn to burn whatever they can get their hands on and try to draw the Starks out peace-meal.

Send out another 2500 to take Bear Island, and order the Iron Fleet, to cut off White Harbour's trade lane.

The Starks will probably muster at Winterfell, and while they're mustering, I'll burn the western coast, taking as many lords/ladies captive as possible, and putting everything else to the torch. When the Starks march west to confront me, have the Ironborn burn the east coast.

Then it's just a war of attrition, really. I could hit anywhere with impunity and use a raid-style war to just grind the Northern host down. The North can't really sustain a large host anyway, thanks to its climate, so me having smaller forces moving around will be able to sustain a long campaign, while the northmen can't. If the Northmen don't muster their full strength, I'll bloody them to the point of having no men. If they do, they'll starve.

Once the Northmen are sufficiently weakened (bring their numbers down to 10-15,000 or so), I'd deploy whatever forces I have to just north of Moat Cailin, since it would allow the Eastern and Western forces to meet within a couple of days of landing.

Try to take White Harbour as soon as possible, and try to keep the rivers between our hosts. If Stark does try to cross, we will have a definite advantage. If he doesn't, send out men to besiege every holding on the east coast.

==================

With 45,000 men my odds of success increase drastically. Send out 2-3000 men to harry like previously, but I'd march the rest straight to wherever Stark was mustering (assuming Winterfell). Worst comes to worst, I lose the battle and my force is reduced drastically. In which case, I adopt the previous strategy of burning and grinding until Stark is forced to capitulate.

You don't have the Iron Fleet. You have 20 gigantic warships that can't do shit except transportation.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

Obviously, trying to invade the North during Winter would be suicide. You would have to invade while the weather was good. For one, your army is going to need to find forage.

I think your basic problems are:

1. Your not going to get an army past Moat Cailan by doing a frontal attack.

2. And your probably not going to have enough naval resources to simply land enough men in the North.

3. Even if you can push an army through the Neck, the Crannogmen can make life very difficult for you. They can attack both supplies and reinforcements that come up through the Neck. The only effective tactic against the Crannogmen is to probably bring up forces in strength to deter their attacks. They would probably have an easy time destroying any supply trains that were not heavily guarded.

Accordingly, I would probably:

1. Seize control of the three sisters. And build supplies and perhaps use as a base for reinforcements.

2. Form the bulk of the main army at the neck.

3. With naval forces, land some troops on the west bank of the White Knife. Their job would to be to take Moat Cailan in the rear. And to link up with the main army coming through the neck.

4. After link up, turn the army east to take White Harbor.

5. If White Harbor falls, then take Old Castle to protect my rear.

6. And probably take Ramsgate to protect my eastern flank.

7. At this point, it's kind of hard to say. I think I would want to know where the main enemy force was massing.

1. If you take Moat Cailin at the rear, you'll soon be crushed by about 17,000 Dustins, Lockes, Hornwoods and Manderlys.

2. You have to take the Kingsroad then, and when the Reeds destroy the causeway, you're doomed.

3. Impossible, because both your armies are completely destroyed.

[OldGimletEye]

1. If you take Moat Cailin at the rear, you'll soon be crushed by about 17,000 Dustins, Lockes, Hornwoods and Manderlys.

2. You have to take the Kingsroad then, and when the Reeds destroy the causeway, you're doomed.

3. Impossible, because both your armies are completely destroyed.

Then there is no way of taking the North unless you have very large naval forces.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

Then there is no way of taking the North unless you have very large naval forces.

That's the answer, really. You can't take the North without Northern aid.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

I think the problem that unnecessarily sustains the tenuous argument of the "North is conquerable" crowd, is that Martin makes it clear from history, the views of knowledgeable individuals and geographical factors that the North is un-conquerable, but he suspends logic in this respect for plot convenience during the current books.

The current plot requires the Starks to suffer great losses during the early series, and thus the Ironborn are shown to make huge gains relatively easily while Robb is away. And the Northmen are either shown to be strategic morons again and again, or rather average, poorly armored fighters when he needs them to be for plot convenience (Ser Rodrik, I'm talking about you).

All of this while he wants to retain the fact that the North was unconquered for 8000 years, that a host like that of Stannis would be cut to pieces if they dared march over the Umbers territory, even with the main Umber army away etc.

In short, Martin wants the best of both worlds. The wildlings and Ironborn need to remain a credible threat to the North for plot reasons, but at the same time the North could not be conquered and held by any outside force in history.

And the geography and its logistical implications for an invading medieval army strongly supports the latter.

If you think about it, with no cavalry and almost no archers, how could the Ironborn ever achieve consistent success against a regular medieval army of the type that the North can deploy if properly mobilized? They cannot. Nor can they conduct sieges to capture major strongholds in any way that does not involve subterfuge or surprise attack.

Same with the wildlings, who really should be nothing more than a nuisance, rather than this supposed existential threat which never quite seems to materialize.

To conclude, Martin twisted the rules of his own worldbuilding about as far as he possibly could to weaken the North in the current series, but this is not a situation that is realistic given the facts he himself established in creating the North.

Aside from the Iron Islands and the Riverlands, no kingdom in the south has been conquered either*.

Are the Reach, the Vale, the Westerlands, the Stormlands, and Dorne impossible to conquer too?

*Without dragons (though that applies to the North too), and the Andals invaded while there were still a hundred different warring states down in the South rather than the unified kingdoms of today.

[Irish]

The North believes itself to be "unconquerable", since they've repelled Andal invasions at Moat Cailin, but they've never had to fight an army that is of equatable quality on their home turf. They relied heavily upon Moat Cailin and don't have any real fleet, but if an army of 30-45,000 landed in the North, they would be hard pressed to actually defeat it.

[Darksnider05]

The North believes itself to be "unconquerable", since they've repelled Andal invasions at Moat Cailin, but they've never had to fight an army that is of equatable quality on their home turf. They relied heavily upon Moat Cailin and don't have any real fleet, but if an army of 30-45,000 landed in the North, they would be hard pressed to actually defeat it.

Except for said army starving to death long before anyone had to deal with them.

[Ingelheim]

With 30,000 men, it's imposible. Not even 50,000.

[Talleyrand]

With 30,000 men, it's imposible. Not even 50,000.

I wouldn't say impossible but you would have to rely on everything going to plan and the Northerners fucking up at almost every opportunity

[Free Northman Reborn]

The North believes itself to be "unconquerable", since they've repelled Andal invasions at Moat Cailin, but they've never had to fight an army that is of equatable quality on their home turf. They relied heavily upon Moat Cailin and don't have any real fleet, but if an army of 30-45,000 landed in the North, they would be hard pressed to actually defeat it.

Incorrect.

We've always known that is not the case, from an SSM by Martin, where he was asked why no one had tried to circumvent Moat Cailin before to land troops directly in the North via sea. To which he replied: "Who says they haven't? The North has a very long history and so far I've told a very small part of it."

And now, in the World of Ice and Fire we have learned a bit more of that history, showing that there were indeed many battles fought against invaders in the North itself. We still don't know a fraction of it, but with the growing body of evidence we do have it is clear that all foreign invaders have been utterly defeated over the millenia.

What's more, the brief foreign victories we DO know about, have happened almost exclusively in proximity to the coast, with almost no sustainable gains being made further inland. And here I talk about the Wolf's Den that was burned by the Arryn known as the "Talon", the slavers that have captured the Wolf's Den at another time, the periodic Ironborn annxations of Bear Island and Cape Kraken etc.

It is clear that the size of the North and its geography and climate have played a very large role in ensuring that any brief coastal victories have never translated into long term gains further inland.