Assessing the possibility of tyrion taking the Vale

[varunpats18]

OK, so in the beginning of the series, tyrion lannister promised to give the Vale to the mountain clans of return for their aid. This, for me was one of the OMFG, end of the chapter, kick-ass moments which made me punch the air several times! It would be disheartening if there was not even a tiny mention of this in the future books. So, below I have listed the reasons why tyrion might or might not conquer the Vale for the mountain clans.

Why this is NOT possible:-

-we all love tyrion but he is not the most honorable man out there. He is not one who would always stay true to his words. What he said to the mountain clans might have been just an excuse to get out of the vale safe.

-also, tyrion might not live that long.

-of tyrion does survive, he can't take the Vale on his own. He would need some troops. So, we have to basically assume he convinces the second sons to attack the Vale or he sides with Dany and she lets him use her troops to give away the Vale to a few wild, crazy and weird tribesmen or he takes casterly rock and uses the remainder of the Westerlands troops. All three have thin possibility.

-if he sides with Dany, the Vale might turn out to be their ally!

-which mountain clan would rule the vale? There are several clans and they don't have much love or respect for each other. So would they settle for one overlord?

Why this IS possible(assuming he had the troops somehow) :-

-tyrion has been to the Vale before. Given how smart he is, he might work out a strategy to actually conquer it.

-assuming Sansa becomes lady of the Vale, tyrion might play a political game by saying that he, by marriage is the Lord of the vale(a few lords of the vale might flock to his cause then)

-if Dany agrees to aid him, she might repeat what her ancestor did to conquer the Vale. One of aegon the conqueror' s sisters simply flew her dragon to the eyrie to conquer it. Dany has three dragons, she can do that.

What are your views here?

[Ramsay's Penguins]

No one in the Vale likes Tyrion.

No one in the Vale likes Lannisters.

I'd say low.

[TallTyrion]

I can't imagine any scenario where the mountain clans would be able to take an actual castle.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Zero.

You've forgotten that the knights of the Vale outnumber the Mountain Clans about 40 to one, just by the way. Taking total population into account, it's more like 400 to one.

[TallTyrion]

Mountain clans are essentially just a nuisance. Similar to what the far Northern lords would normally deal with in terms of wildlings. They can raid unprotected villages and ambush travellers but they aren't a military threat.

The new arms and armour Tyrion's clansmen got from the Lannisters makes them harder to deal with but it's not a game changer.

[Ser Charles of Rosehaven]

He wont. But the eyrie is frozen, there is no need to take it. The vale in the other hand has too much people who may protect it. Why would the Vale side with Dany?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

A dragon flying to the Eyrie is something I think will happen again but not quite in the same way. Visenya was able to take the Eyrie by flying a dragon up to it when it was inhabited. But the Eyrie is now empty for the winter, meaning that anyone trying to fly a dragon up to it going to find an empty castle that is also uninhabitable.

As for Sansa, she would only be the lady of the Vale if she married either Robin or Harry (if Robin dies and Harry becomes the new Lord Arryn). She has no right to the Vale on her own. So Tyrion can't make a play for the Vale lordship by virtue of being her husband when the only reason she'd have power in the Vale is through her being someone else's wife.

[addicted to snow]

Yes, Tyrion will take the Vale...

- It is accessible via dragon

- The Turnkey, Maude is forever loyal to Tyrion after Tyrion gave him his bag of gold, so Tyrion has a friend on the inside...

- Tyrion has an army already scattered throughout the Mountains of the Moon

- Tyrion promised the Mountain Clans that he would give them the Vale. He has yet to fulfill this promise...

He will also take Casterly Rock...

--

I'm sure that we will also see a Siege at the Eyrie, Just guessing from the detail GRRM gave the reader about the castle (grainary being as large as Winterfell's for example)...

[TallTyrion]

Yes, Tyrion will take the Vale...

- It is accessible via dragon

- The Turnkey, Maude is forever loyal to Tyrion after Tyrion gave him his bag of gold, so Tyrion has a friend on the inside...

- Tyrion has an army already scattered throughout the Mountains of the Moon

- Tyrion promised the Mountain Clans that he would give them the Vale. He has yet to fulfill this promise...

He will also take Casterly Rock...

--

I'm sure that we will also see a Siege at the Eyrie, Just guessing from the detail GRRM gave the reader about the caste (granary being as large as Winterfell's for example)...

We already saw one. Lord's Declarant besieged Littlefinger. It was over pretty fast but I don't imagine we will see another since the Eyrie is closed for the winter.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm sure that we will also see a Siege at the Eyrie, Just guessing from the detail GRRM gave the reader about the castle (grainary being as large as Winterfell's for example)...

You do know that the Eyrie is empty now, right? Everyone left because it's uninhabitable in the winter. So it's not even like Tyrion can fly up and squat in a sweet-ass empty castle. It's too cold to live in.

[addicted to snow]

You do know that the Eyrie is empty now, right? Everyone left because it's uninhabitable in the winter. So it's not even like Tyrion can fly up and squat in a sweet-ass empty castle. It's too cold to live in.

I am quit aware of this...

I think that we will see a lot of the Eyrie in the coming novels...

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I am quit aware of this...

I think that we will see a lot of the Eyrie in the coming novels...

Empty and inaccessible. Sure, why not? After all, we know some guys and galls able to watch through bird eyes...

[Trigger Warning]

I'd like to hope that Tyrion's arc doesn't actually lead to him flying a dragon around subduing regions.

Haha, look upon me now tall men for you are now the dwarfs.

<_<

Tyrion's mountain clan conquest of the Vale thing was just sabre rattling because he was bitter.

[chrisdaw]

Inevitable, when LF dies the lid will be blown on the Vale and a Royce vs Royce civil war or civil stand off will follow. SR and Sansa will be chased back up the Eyrie, Tyrion will turn up to deal fire and blood but end up taking the Vale by rescuing them, subduing their pursuers by threat or dragon's fire. Sansa will know what to do by then, win Robert over with a ride and name a lord protector who will do as he's told and remember who he owes his place to. Have him swear allegiance to whichever monarch Tyrion purportedly serves at the time and it's off to KL for Sansa.

[Barrick Eddon]

Inevitable, when LF dies the lid will be blown on the Vale and a Royce vs Royce civil war or civil stand off will follow. SR and Sansa will be chased back up the Eyrie, Tyrion will turn up to deal fire and blood but end up taking the Vale by rescuing them, subduing their pursuers by threat or dragon's fire. Sansa will know what to do by then, win Robert over with a ride and name a lord protector who will do as he's told and remember who he owes his place to. Have him swear allegiance to whichever monarch Tyrion purportedly serves at the time and it's off to KL for Sansa.

I doubt that there will be a Royce vs Royce civil war .

There is a great theory from tze what could happen in Vale .

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/81892-littlefingers-downfall/page-3#entry4161694

[chrisdaw]

Why would you doubt that when the animosity between Royces has been so carefully carved, and LF the only thing keeping it on lock. When LF dies Bronze naturally demands custody of SR to assume his place as Lord Protector, but custody of SR will be the only bargaining chip Nestor will have to keep the Gates of the Moon. What are the chances Bronze accepts the terms of the Royce cadet branch who sided with LF against him? Fortunately for Nestor he's in a very defendable position, especially if he seizes the bloody gate, and the allegedly inaccessible Eyrie is always at his back. Holding out until Bronze allows him to keep the Gates of the Moon would seem entirely possible.

But then he's probably not aware of the goat track that leads around back to the Giant's Lance which was the undoing of Robar Royce.

[Hos the Hostage]

I don't care if Tyrion takes the Vale or not, but I very much want to see Sweetrobin watching Tyrion fly. On a dragon.

[Lost Melnibonean]

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/99159-timett-son-of-timett-lost-heir-to-the-vale/

Little boyman, Shagga roared, will you mock my axe after I chop off your manhood and feed it to the goats?

But Gunthor raised a hand. No. I would hear his words. The mothers go hungry, and steel fills more mouths than gold. What would you give us for your lives, Tyrion son of Tywin? Swords? Lances? Mail?

All that, and more, Gunthor son of Gurn, Tyrion Lannister replied, smiling. I will give you the Vale of Arryn.

Tyrion VI, Game

A Lannister always pays his debts.

Tyrion VI, Game

Gunthor son of Gurn was raising the other clans even now.

Tyrion VII, Game

So, Tyrion still needs to help the Mountain Clans claim the Vale of Arryn, which Timett and Gunthor seem nearly ready to do

His dream of selling Arya to Lady Arryn died there in the hills, though. Theres frost above us and snow in the high passes, the village elder said. If you dont freeze or starve, the shadowcats will get you, or the cave bears. Theres the clans as well. The Burned Men are fearless since Timett One-Eye came back from the war. And half a year ago, Gunthor son of Gurn led the Stone Crows down on a village not eight miles from here. They took every woman and every scrap of grain, and killed half the men. They have steel now, good swords and mail hauberks, and they watch the high road--the Stone Crows, the Milk Snakes, the Sons of the Mist, all of them. Might be youd take a few with you, but in the end theyd kill you and make off with your daughter.

Arya XII, Storm

They just need a strong ally and maybe a legal claim.

Eventually, Daenerys will come to Westeros. I suspect she will ally with and possibly wed Aegon before the dance begins, but that Aegon will betray her. Petyr may treat with Daenerys but when its time to dance, he will side with Aegon, and Daenerys, probably influenced by Tyrion, is likely to push him in that direction...

Thank you, but no. Littlefinger flashed his mocking smile. Drink with the dwarf, its said, and you wake up walking the Wall. Black brings out my unhealthy pallor.

Tyrion IV, Clash

The next three quotes, considered together, foreshadow Petyr taking Sansa to the Vale...

The Arryns are descended from the Kings of Mountain and Vale, one of the oldest and purest lines of Andal nobility. Their sigil is the moon-and-falcon, white upon a sky blue field.

Appendix, Game

Petyr had been a small boy, and he had grown into a small man, an inch or two shorter than Catelyn, slender and quick, with the sharp features she remembered and the same laughing grey-green eyes. He had a little pointed chin beard now, and threads of silver in his dark hair, though he was still shy of thirty. They went well with the silver mockingbird that fastened his cloak. Even as a child, he had always loved his silver.

Catelyn IV, Game

His eldest daughter stepped forward hesitantly. [sansa] was dressed in blue velvets trimmed with white, a silver chain around her neck.

Eddard III, Game

Now compare that bit with this bit...

A dream delayed, no more. Danys tight silver collar was chafing against her throat. She unfastened it and flung it aside.

Daenerys III, Clash, after being rejected by the Pureborn

So Petyr will be rejected by, or reject, Daenerys and throw in with Aegon...

Daenerys could become the Mountain Clans strong ally, and Tyrion could provide a legal claim for Timett.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

I'm pretty sure people are reading way too much from the "the Vale of Arryn" line. That was a figure of speech. Tyrion gave them Lannister steel, that's it, business concluded. Nobody takes it literally. Never is it implied that Tyrion still owes the mountain clans anything, and needs to accomplish some Vale conquering to settle the tab. Not in dialogue, not in Tyrion's thoughts. The issue of Tyrion owing anything to the clans exists only on this forum, not in-universe.

[kimim]

I'm pretty sure people are reading way too much from the "the Vale of Arryn" line. That was a figure of speech. Tyrion gave them Lannister steel, that's it, business concluded. Nobody takes it literally. Never is it implied that Tyrion still owes the mountain clans anything, and needs to accomplish some Vale conquering to settle the tab. Not in dialogue, not in Tyrion's thoughts. The issue of Tyrion owing anything to the clans exists only on this forum, not in-universe.

I agree, but, still, Tyrion promised, and Tyrion pays his debts. idk. Something will happen at the Eyrie. The place is begging for a dragon attack, and guess who is now associated with dragons.