Dorne will NOT join Aegon or Daenerys, but potentially with the North

[David C. Hunter]

*Some TWOIAF spoilers*

It was stated by Archmaester Brude that Dorne and the North have more in common with each other thn either does with the realms that lie between them.

Similarities between the 2 kingdoms:

-Both locations are the most inhospitable territories in Westeros

-Both have the least amount of people in Westeros

-Both cultures are the least influenced by Andal/southron culture

-Neither territory has truly ever been conquered, not by an outsider.

-Both are usually considered savages by the people of the other 5 Kingdoms

Similarities between the actual peoples:

-Short tempered

-Very honor/valor bound

-Stubborn

-Merciless and sadistic to those who threaten them

Similarities between history: Symbolism

-Neither Dorne nor the North were violently conquered by Aegon

-There are no Dornish or Northern swords on the Iron throne

-Mutual hatred and history with the Lannisters

-Oberyn Martell's death is doing for Dorne more or less what Ned Stark's death did for the North

-Jon Snow was born by Rhaegar and Lyanna and smuggled out of Dorne; Aegon was born by Elia and Rhaegar and smuggled out of King's Landing (presumably)

There are a few connections as well:

-Lyanna Stark hid in the Tower of Joy in Dorne in order to presumably have a baby,

-Jon Snow was born there (May have a little symbolism in here)

-She was being guarded by the Sword of the Morning, Sir Arthur of House Dayne of Dorne

-Ned Stark was in love with Ashara Dayne and returned Arthur's sword to her (Afterwards she presumably killed herself)

-The sword Dawn....

At first it seems obvious that the Dornish will join Team Aegon or Team Dany right? Sure, Dornish literally have no love for the Reach Lords, Stormlords, Rock Lords or the Crownlords, generally speaking and joining the Blood of Valyria would almost gurantee their revenge. And yes, Arianne Martell may actually marry Aegon....for a moment.(I dont think they will ever make it to the wedding). But there is an issue. Daenerys Stormborn. Daenerys is damn near prophesized to clash with Aegon and defeat him. The Mummers Dragon. It should be mutually understood that Aegon is at least NOT a Targaryan. But that isnt the point. Real or not, Dany is not going to team up with Aegon for long. Tyrion basically says this on the boat. The Iron Throne only has room for one and believe me, Daenerys is not going to play second fiddle to King Aegon especially if she finds out that he is a fake. There is also another matter, Arianne Martell is basically the leader of House Martell for all intents and purposes. If she says yay or nay, Dorne (mostly) will follow her to war, BUT, if she is planning on marrying Aegon....then what kind of power will Dany have? Will Aegon marry them both like his ancestor did? Somehow I doubt it, though it is possible.

But, truly, it still goes back to sharing power. There is only one Iron Throne, and bitterness will follow. Dany is not going to sit behind anyone, Aegon isnt going to sit behinf anyone and neither is Arianne. Not with Dorne basically fed up with weak leaders at this point. So, I expect tension and I expect that any kind of alliance will not last.

1.) Aegon might be a fake, in which case Dany will slay him. She is receiving messages from Quaithe about the mummer's Dragon, she will have Moqorro with her who will tell her the same, she will probably have Marwin with her who will tell her the same, and she will find out from Tyrion or logic that Illyrio probably sent her and her brother to the Khal to basically die (or whatever), Im pretty sure she wont be thrilled to find out that most of her suffering was designed as to make room for Aegon.

So factor that all in and realize that only Dany is a Dragon rider and come to the logical conclusion that Dany will either have Aegon arrested or she will clash with him, which will 99% probably end with Dany burning him alive, giving him to the flames (Moqorro), throwing him in prison and comandeering his army, while threatning anyone who dares leave. Period.

So this leads to the conclusion that most likely Dany and Aegon will clash, which will end in Aegon losing his power. You maybe asking, what does this have to do with Dorne not joining Dany as well?

1. -Well for starters, if Arianne does marry Aegon, and Dany kills him, then she will look at Arianne as a threat and expect her to bend the knee, along with the rest of Dorne or face Fire Blood. So that can happen.

2. -Whether Arianne is married to Aegon or not, where is Quentyn Martell, her brother and Prince of Sunspear? Thats right, he went before Dany only for her to reject him, thus Dorne, and he was burned alive by her Dragon. I wonder how Arianne, Doran, the Sand Snakes and overall Dorne will feel about that? Arianne probably wasnt too fond of her brother, but he is still a Martell. House Martell as well as Dorne in general is very honor bound, like the North. Dont brush that aside as if that wont cause tension, especially if Aegon dies, which leads me to my third point.

3. -Who is Aegon Targaryan VI supposedly the son of? We all know who is father was, but who was his mother? Thats right, Elia Martell! The one Rhaegar cast aside for the She-Wolf. In other words, Aegon is (supposedly) Arianne's cousion for he is the son of her aunt, the one that the Martells have been trying to get revenge for the last decade. So what happens when Dany gives Aegon, the son of Elia Martell, to the flames? How will Dorne react then?? I'll answer it for you, think of how Oberyn Martell will act and multiply that by the number of soldiers currently stationed at the Boneway and Sunspear.

There is no way in the 7 hells that the Dornish will 'willingly' ally themsleves with the woman who caused the death of two princes of Dorne.

Dornish don't seem to be forgiving people. Look up the Sand Snakes. Nor do Dornish people really feel the need to bow down to anyone. Unbent, unbowed, unbroken, right? They never wavered in the sight Dragons and they faced way more than 3. Dany expects loyalty and for others to bend the knee. Doran Martell will probbaly want to do that, but neither Arianne Martell, nor the Sand Snakes will want that. They want to end House Lannister (preferably the Houses of the Reach as well) To do that they need to take King's Landing, Castle Rock as well as Lannisport. I do not think they will stop until the accomplish this. They may join Aegon for a moment in time to do this, but eventually they will fight the Dragon as they have done (sucessfully) time and time again throughout history.

It is almost destiny for Dorne to fight the Dragon. Their Rhyonish ancestors clashed with the Valyrians, their Dornish ancestors fought against the Targaryans for nearly 200 years and soon they will clash again for dominance in the South, but Dorne alone will lose...because eventually the Lords of the Reach, Stormalnds, Crownlands and the Rock will join Dany and they will fight the Dornish (They all hate the Dornish)

Where does the North come in? Well like I listed above, in terms of honor, valor, tempers, revenge, outsider mentality, and desire to destroy the Lannisters, the North and Dorne are very similar.

The way the story is unfolding, it seems like Wildings (Jon SNow),The North (Rickon), The Vale (Sansa) and the Riverlands(Brotherhood once they red wedding 2 Devon's ass at Riverrun - Cmon Tom!) will form an alliance. There is just too much foreshadowing on this. (Iron Islands are the wildcards). So, if they turn south and bring the North (which the will) the only Southrin kingdom that they probbaly respect will be Dorne. Anyone associated with the Lannisters is an enemy to the North and Castle Rock will indeed burn. But the only Southron Kingdom that hates them middle 5 kingdoms just as much as the Northmen is Dorne. The only issue is logistics, but Im sure something will be worked out with this. Imagine Dorne flanking the Southron lords from the South, with the Northmen fighting up top.

I believe Arianne is becoming more and more mature and that she will become a good leader. I also have this fantasy of her and Jon Snow meeting as allys. Hah!

There is also this issue with Dawn the sword. Is it Lightbringer? Is it special? If so, then the Daynes are probably caretakers of it and if they are supposed to give this weapon to Azor Ahai or whatever, then someone needs to get it to Jon Snow (If that is the way this story is going)

Also, when you think about it, this is the song of Ice and Fire, but who ever said that the Targaryans were the ones that represented fire? Could be incredible misdirection. Maybe it is the Martells/Dorne who the Northerners are meant to dance with. ;)

[farm_ecology]

To be honest, I don't think Dorne matters at all. They are by far the most incompetent players in the entire series. I don't know how they'e survived this long.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

To be honest, I don't think Dorne matters at all. They are by far the most incompetent players in the entire series. I don't know how they'e survived this long.

Because they know how to play it, hence they aren't incompetent at all.

[Mokymok]

-Ned Stark was in love with Alysanne Ashara Dayne and returned Arthur's sword to her (Afterwards she presumably killed herself)

[shadow282]

Because they know how to play it, hence they aren't incompetent at all.

How? All they've managed to do so far is get Oberyn killed, get Quentyn killed, and mutilate Myrcella. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of their political prowess.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

How? All they've managed to do so far is get Oberyn killed, get Quentyn killed, and mutilate Myrcella. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of their political prowess.

Oberyn and Quentyn are the only Dornishmen who have died. And, at the end, those are Doran's loses, not Dorne's: the rest of the dornish haven't lost people like, for instance, the Riverlands, whose men have been killed and their women, raped. The North, the Lannisters, the Stormlands and the Reach have all lost men, lands (some of them), and definitely some money and resources. And their people might end up starving during the Winter.

Dorne, otoh, chose to remain aside during the war, which was wise. The War of the 5K was nothing but a lot of Lords trying to compare the size of their dicks to each other. Dorne now is waiting for the mayor card of the game: the dragons. And even if they dont' have it, the rest of Westeros is in terrible condition while they aren't. Their chances might not be good, but they are definitely better.

[Hype_Train_Conductor]

Oberyn and Quentyn are the only Dornishmen who have died. And, at the end, those are Doran's loses, not Dorne's: the rest of the dornish haven't lost people like, for instance, the Riverlands, whose men have been killed and their women, raped. The North, the Lannisters, the Stormlands and the Reach have all lost men, lands (some of them), and definitely some money and resources. And their people might end up starving during the Winter.

Dorne, otoh, chose to remain aside during the war, which was wise. The War of the 5K was nothing but a lot of Lords trying to compare the size of their dicks to each other. Dorne now is waiting for the mayor card of the game: the dragons. And even if they dont' have it, the rest of Westeros is in terrible condition while they aren't. Their chances might not be good, but they are definitely better.

Dorne seems to be the only nation aware of the massive forces in Essos that were planning on coming to Westeros and conquer. That is the main play that shows competence on Dorne's part.

[Cubarey]

"Dorne seems to be the only nation aware of the massive forces in Essos that were planning on coming to Westeros and conquer. That is the main play that shows competence on Dorne's part."

Actually, what shows Dorne's competence is that they have not been involved in the fighting up to now. The rest of Westeros have seen their armies killed, noble houses destroyed and children slain. the Dornish have seen two men die and both died because of their own stupidity. The Dornish Prince will side with Danny or Aegeon based on whom he deems the most likely to win.

[Whitering]

Dorne seems to be the only nation aware of the massive forces in Essos that were planning on coming to Westeros and conquer. That is the main play that shows competence on Dorne's part.

You mean 10,000 men of the GC? or the Dothraki early in the series that were unlikely to ever come across the Ocean. If Robert had made the decision to spare Dany then Drogo never would have invaded Westeros and Doran certainly couldn't know how Robert would react if Dany ever got herself pregnant.

[Trickrs]

*Some TWOIAF spoilers*

It was stated by Archmaester Brude that Dorne and the North have more in common with each other thn either does with the realms that lie between them.

Similarities between the 2 kingdoms:

-Both locations are the most inhospitable territories in Westeros

'kay

-Both have the least amount of people in Westeros

The population of the North is on par with the Vale and the Riverlands, the only reigion comparable to Dorne are the Iron Islands.

-Both cultures are the least influenced by Andal/southron culture.

The North is a lot more alien in this aspect, a good load of Stony Dornishmen are Andal and they in general follow the Seven.

-Neither territory has truly ever been conquered, not by an outsider.

Dorne was conquered the the Andals and the Rhoynar

-Both are usually considered savages by the people of the other 5 Kingdoms

So does the Ironborn (a lot more actually), it's in no way a Dorne-North exclussive.

Similarities between the actual peoples:

-Short tempered

-Very honor/valor bound

The northerns? Where? Ned's values comes from Jon Arryn, you know, an Andal. Also, the Dornish are know to be have chronical backstabbing disorder (see Daeron), hardly honorable.

-Stubborn

-Merciless and sadistic to those who threaten them

So is Tywin and a shitload of people.

Similarities between history: Symbolism

-Neither Dorne nor the North were violently conquered by Aegon

Didn't Visenya get the Vale without bloodshed?

-There are no Dornish or Northern swords on the Iron throne

-Mutual hatred and history with the Lannisters

So does half of the Realm.

-Oberyn Martell's death is doing for Dorne more or less what Ned Stark's death did for the North

-Jon Snow was born by Rhaegar and Lyanna and smuggled out of Dorne; Aegon was born by Elia and Rhaegar and smuggled out of King's Landing (presumably)

Rhaegar cuckolding Elia is hardly a go for Dorne and the North to be BFF.

Also, Aegon is destined for more than "pew pew death" at the hands of Dany.

[David C. Hunter]

Damn, my fault. Thanks! Fixing now

[David C. Hunter]

Also, Aegon is destined for more than "pew pew death" at the hands of Dany.

I see absoluetly no reason to believe that. Not when Dany is prophesized to stop him. True, he may sucessfuly capture King's Landing. He may even unit the Reach and Stormlands beneath him, but he isnt going to be the one marching against the Northerners in the Battle for the Dawn. He will be dead long before that. You dont intoduce a character in Act 5 and have him/her take over the story. Especially, since hes a fake

As far as your other changes, the material I was spewing out was coming directly from the The World of Ice and Fire. Like word for word. So, you changing it to theoretical facts that you personally believe isnt helping your argument.

[The Reckoner]

Aegon won't do anything that would set off the High Sparrow. That guy seems like he's becoming a major player.

[Trickrs]

I see absoluetly no reason to believe that. Not when Dany is prophesized to stop him. True, he may sucessfuly capture King's Landing. He may even unit the Reach and Stormlands beneath him, but he isnt going to be the one marching against the Northerners in the Battle for the Dawn. He will be dead long before that. You dont intoduce a character in Act 5 and have him/her take over the story. Especially, since hes a fake

As far as your other changes, the material I was spewing out was coming directly from the The World of Ice and Fire. Like word for word. So, you changing it to theoretical facts that you personally believe isnt helping your argument.

It'll a total waste if he's just an brief episode, there is a great build-up for him and Dany's clash to be more than a one-side slaughter.

And I have AWOIAF and read a lot of it, can you point the things I "personally believe", please? I'm admit being wrong about the Conquest of the Vale (forgot the Gulltown clash) and the culture, but else, what?

It says it's lands aren't as fetile as the South, comparing to Dorne, the least populated of the Seven Kingdoms (which include II + Riverlands) is a big stretch.

It also mention the Andal invasion in Dorne, albeit it's impact was smaller than in the other kingdoms, also, the Rhoynar pretty much invaded and conquered Dorne, the North is the only #neverconquered.

The Ironborn are pretty much seen as savages by the greenlanders, it's not even up to debate.

Can't find nothing about "Northern honor" too.

[Table8]

I will bet money that Dorne will go all in on fAegon. There are very few predictions that I will say that about. "fire and blood".

[The Night's Prince]

Dorne has been the most intelligent Houses in the game by not playing it until all the cards or most of the cards fell into place.

[Sword of the Morgan]

To be honest, I don't think Dorne matters at all. They are by far the most incompetent players in the entire series. I don't know how they'e survived this long.

GRRM said Doran plays to win, so I'm pretty sure that statement will look foolish by the end of the series.

[TheHouseHB]

I have a crackpot that Dorne well provide shelter to people from the North in the upcoming Long Night, Sarella may play a part due to Sam. I think it will turn interesting once Doran learns that Ned Starks bastard is the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna the girl Rhaegar crowned "the queen of love and beauty" over Elia though.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I sorta kinda agree. I think Dorne and the Starks will end up on the same side for a while (Aegon's), considering Dany might join their enemies, Tyrion and the Ironborn

[Led]

How? All they've managed to do so far is get Oberyn killed, get Quentyn killed, and mutilate Myrcella. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of their political prowess.

Oberyn and Quentyn are the only Dornishmen who have died. And, at the end, those are Doran's loses, not Dorne's:

Also, to be fair, Oberyn and Quentyn both died because of their own stupid decisions... Myrcella was mutilated because of Arianne and her plans.

Doran Martell is the main Dornish player and his biggest problem does not seem to be incompetence, but rather that he is playing with much more unpredictable pieces (Oberyn, Quentyn, Arianne) than most other players.