Renly's plan for The Blackwater

[TallTyrion]

So I was thinking about what would have happened had Stannis not killed Renly and something struck me as a bit odd.

When Stannis attacks King's Landing he has to camp on the south side of the Blackwater Rush and wait for his navy to sail up from Storm's End so his force can be ferried across.

So my question is this, what was Renly's plan to get across the river?

Cersei was holding the Redwyne twins hostage and that kept Paxter's fleet out of the war until Renly's death. Even if it hadn't, Stannis is the dominant naval power in Blackwater Bay and it's hard to imagine he would allow the Redwynes to sail past Dragonstone unmolested.

Even when the Tyrell's join with Tywin their main force never crosses the river. Tywin leads the right on the north side of the River while the centre, van, and left attack Stannis' main force camped on the south.

So does anyone have any ideas about what Renly's plan was? Crossing the river was the critical element of the battle and the only reason why Stannis didn't take the city almost immediately.

[Chaircat Meow]

Presumably he meant to strike west from Bitterbridge and cross near Tumbler's Falls, where there were barges/a crossing and so approach on the north side of the river. Or he could have meant to bring the barges downriver and cross somewhere closer to king's landing, to shorten his march and keep a river between himself and Tywin.

[Chaircat Meow]

Also, Stannis didn't almost take the city. There was a panic when Joff left the walls (at Cersei's request) and Tyrion and the Hound were presumed lost. Stannis's men had got no further than they had when Tyrion went down though.

[TallTyrion]

Also, Stannis didn't almost take the city. There was a panic when Joff left the walls (at Cersei's request) and Tyrion and the Hound were presumed lost. Stannis's men had got no further than they had when Tyrion went down though.

Yeah but if there wasn't a burning river between Stannis' host and the city it would have fallen in no time.

Presumably he meant to strike west from Bitterbridge and cross near Tumbler's Falls, where there were barges/a crossing and so approach on the north side of the river. Or he could have meant to bring the barges downriver and cross somewhere closer to king's landing, to shorten his march and keep a river between himself and Tywin.

Where would you get barges to move that many people though? His host was tens of thousands of men.

Look at the damage Tyrion's sorties did on Stannis when he was crossing the Blackwater Rush or what Edmure did at the battle of the fords. Tywin had scouts all over the Riverlands so there's no way a host that size slips under the radar.

[Chaircat Meow]

Where would you get barges to move that many people though? His host was tens of thousands of men.

The Tyrells did move about 70,000 men down the river after they linked up with Tywin, no? So the barges were there. I guess there is a heck of a lot of river traffic ...

Look at the damage Tyrion's sorties did on Stannis when he was crossing the Blackwater Rush or what Edmure did at the battle of the fords. Tywin had scouts all over the Riverlands so there's no way a host that size slips under the radar.

Sure, the Lannisters would know about it, but Harrenhal is hundreds of miles from the headwaters of the Rush.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Sure, the Lannisters would know about it, but Harrenhal is hundreds of miles from the headwaters of the Rush.

And Renly can curbstomp Tywin right then and there if he shows up.

[TallTyrion]

The Tyrells did move about 70,000 men down the river after they linked up with Tywin, no? So the barges were there. I guess there is a heck of a lot of river traffic ...

I assumed they marched the majority of that force. Why go all the way North to sail down the Blackwater Rush when you can just move your main force from Bitterbridge up the mander and march near the Kingswood.

[Chaircat Meow]

And Renly can curbstomp Tywin right then and there if he shows up.

I think TallTyrion is thinking of Renly having to cross narrow fords and the Lannister army positioning itself on the other side. So, like a Battle of the Fords scenario or something. Of course, that means going very near Riverrun.

[TallTyrion]

I think TallTyrion is thinking of Renly having to cross narrow fords and the Lannister army positioning itself on the other side. So, like a Battle of the Fords scenario or something. Of course, that means going very near Riverrun.

Yeah pretty much. Not the exact same as the Battle of the Fords since the landscape would be different. But presumably there isn't an easy place to cross the river that quickly or else why didn't Stannis use it with his much smaller force?

[Chaircat Meow]

I assumed they marched the majority of that force. Why go all the way North to sail down the Blackwater Rush when you can just move your main force from Bitterbridge up the mander and march near the Kingswood.

It wasn't super clear.

The BF mentions barges, but there is another comment that gave me the impression much of the force marched up the Rose Road.

As to why go so far up river, well, they didn't know which side of the river Stannis would be on until they got there.

[Chaircat Meow]

Yeah pretty much. Not the exact same as the Battle of the Fords since the landscape would be different. But presumably there isn't an easy place to cross the river that quickly or else why didn't Stannis use it with his much smaller force?

I think it is clear you can't cross the river within hundreds of miles of KL. Some maps show the Goldroad crossing the river further up. I guess that way could be blocked but it would easier for Tywin to do if he disposed of Robb first.

This is interesting. It makes the relative lack of concern displayed in KL about Renly marginally less baffling.

[TallTyrion]

It wasn't super clear.

The BF mentions barges, but there is another comment that gave me the impression much of the force marched up the Rose Road.

As to why go so far up river, well, they didn't know which side of the river Stannis would be on until they got there.

Yeah I remember the line about coming down on barges. However, I assumed that would have been a small force with the Reach leadership. Presumably Mace and the other Reach Lords would have met up with Tywin before the battle.

That would mean a party of probably a few thousand men leaving from Bitterbridge to organize the attack with Tywin somewhere in the Riverlands. But Tywin leads the right from the North side of the river while the Reach men attacked Stannis on the south. So I'm thinking the majority of Tyrell forces never crossed the Blackwater Rush until the conclusion of the battle.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I think TallTyrion is thinking of Renly having to cross narrow fords and the Lannister army positioning itself on the other side. So, like a Battle of the Fords scenario or something. Of course, that means going very near Riverrun.

At the Battle of the Fords, Tywin faced Edmure with prepared defenses having him at 3 to 2 only. Renly would have Tywin 7 to 1 and Tywin wouldn't have any defenses prepared and would need to be at any possible crossing in time, starting from Harrenhal, or he'd face Renly's full might without any fords to hide behind.

Yeah pretty much. Not the exact same as the Battle of the Fords since the landscape would be different. But presumably there isn't an easy place to cross the river that quickly or else why didn't Stannis use it with his much smaller force?

Because Stannis doesn't need to. He has the ships.

[Chaircat Meow]

At the Battle of the Fords, Tywin faced Edmure with prepared defenses having him at 3 to 2 only. Renly would have Tywin 7 to 1 and Tywin wouldn't have any defenses prepared and would need to be at any possible crossing in time, starting from Harrenhal, or he'd face Renly's full might without any fords to hide behind.

I'd never considered this scenario before and was thinking out loud. Edmure vs Tywin was 11,000 vs 20,000, Renly vs Tywin would be 80,000 (max) vs 20,000. Tywin would presumably shift to a position next to the river if Renly looked to be going to cross that way. Tywin isn't super far away from the Goldroad and the west there. I don't know how feasible this is, as we know nothing about ease of crossing upriver.

[juanml82]

I think he planned to starve the city into submission and fight no battle at all

[TallTyrion]

At the Battle of the Fords, Tywin faced Edmure with prepared defenses having him at 3 to 2 only. Renly would have Tywin 7 to 1 and Tywin wouldn't have any defenses prepared and would need to be at any possible crossing in time, starting from Harrenhal, or he'd face Renly's full might without any fords to hide behind.

Tough to say because we don't know the nature of the crossing but I don't see why Tywin wouldn't have been able to prepare defences. Edmure got word of Tywin marching and fortified the river. Presumably Tywin would have a similar amount of time to prepare.

Because Stannis doesn't need to. He has the ships.

Isn't that an unnecessary risk though? Why fight a naval battle in the River and expose your soldiers to sorties when you can easily cross the river to the North, form up and hit King's Landing with everything you have?

He didn't know the Wildfire would make it that difficult but it's still not an easy task ferrying 20 000 men in the middle of a battle.

[Talleyrand]

I think he planned to starve the city into submission and fight no battle at all

Yeah wasn't that the entire point of the slow march according to Tyrion's appraisal. Renly gets to spend as long as possible within his own supply zone display his power while King's Landing is starved and Tywin and Robb bleed each other.

To be honest as strategies go its the best one we've seen in the series

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I'd never considered this scenario before and was thinking out loud. Edmure vs Tywin was 11,000 vs 20,000, Renly vs Tywin would be 80,000 (max) vs 20,000. Tywin would presumably shift to a position next to the river if Renly looked to be going to cross that way. Tywin isn't super far away from the Goldroad and the west there. I don't know how feasible this is, as we know nothing about ease of crossing upriver.

11,000 against 15,000-17,000 at the fords. Renly vs. Tywin would be 100,000 against 15,000-17,000.

Furthermore, Harrenhal is as far from the Goldroad crossing the Blackwater as Bitterbridge. Even if some traitor would send a raven the same day Renly leaves Bitterbridge, Tywin would have to run for the fords to make it in time. Through the Riverlands, enemy teritory, while Renly would face no opposition.

Actual scouts would get the message way later.

Tough to say because we don't know the nature of the crossing but I don't see why Tywin wouldn't have been able to prepare defences. Edmure got word of Tywin marching and fortified the river. Presumably Tywin would have a similar amount of time to prepare.

See above.

Isn't that an unnecessary risk though? Why fight a naval battle in the River and expose your soldiers to sorties when you can easily cross the river to the North, form up and hit King's Landing with everything you have?

He didn't know the Wildfire would make it that difficult but it's still not an easy task ferrying 20 000 men in the middle of a battle.

He could have them ferried across the bay instead of the river just as well.

On the other hand, crossing way upstream costs him time and momentum. As he had only recently taken Renly's army, keeping up the momentum with a couple victories could get him better morale and loyalty.

[The Fallen]

Too Tall,

Mace marched his entire host to Tumbler's Falls and then sent messengers to Tywin. Tywin then marches his host to Tumbler's Falls where Mace is waiting with barges. They take the barges down to within half a day's ride from King's Landing, disembark, and march the rest of the way.

[Maid So Fair]

The Goldroad crosses the tributaries of Blackwater Rush so there must be some sort of a crossing possible. It is not very much of a detour at all if you are starting from Bitterbridge, as Renly was before he was forced to deal with Stannis's attack on SE. It involves crossing into the Riverlands and passing about relatively close to Harrenhall, but that's not necessarily a problem as they would need to face Tywin anyway. It should also be remembered that Tywin is very much in a hostile territory and vulnerable if away from a strong fortress like Harrenhall. Trying to hold the forts for any period of time makes him open to a rear attack from the Riverlands, which is very different from Edmure's position since he can always fall back to Riverrun and can't be ambushed because the only army to the west of him is Robb's.

Because Stannis doesn't need to. He has the ships.

It's always bothered me that Stannis hasn't ferried his land troops to Rosby/somewhere north of KL before starting his attack. That way he could use his ships to actually fight instead of serving as barges.