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The Watcher


yankee211

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I recommend you take a look at skinchangingsweetrobin's videos on youtube. They are very good and you will get answers to the many questions you have started threads about, the pink letter included.



The Dornish masterplan:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TBfdd_xNVo


The Pink letter:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwcuRwod0Xg



Enjoy.


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Varys has been supporting the Targaryen plotters (including Doran and Oberyn) all along thanks to what we could see in the end of the book, and on his help on keeping Dany and Viserys alive... he is indeed one of his friends on KL.



The other one is Sarella, the Viper's daughter who is studying magic at the citadel using a fake name, Alleras... who might as well be acting as a spy while getting stronger for Doran's plans as well.



The High Septon has nothing to do with this, Doran even says on the book something along the lines of 'We need to watch him close, he's not easy to manipulate as the last High Septon' :)


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Varys has been supporting the Targaryen plotters (including Doran and Oberyn) all along thanks to what we could see in the end of the book, and on his help on keeping Dany and Viserys alive... he is indeed one of his friends on KL.

The other one is Sarella, the Viper's daughter who is studying magic at the citadel using a fake name, Alleras... who might as well be acting as a spy while getting stronger for Doran's plans as well.

The High Septon has nothing to do with this, Doran even says on the book something along the lines of 'We need to watch him close, he's not easy to manipulate as the last High Septon' :)

Oh yeah, I forgot about that quote. Do you really think Doran's plans will work, because Quentyn has failed his mission, he didn't expect Viserys being dead, and from reading the chapter, I don't think he fells confident entrusting the sand snakes with these tasks. And I like the sand snakes.

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Oh yeah, I forgot about that quote. Do you really think Doran's plans will work, because Quentyn has failed his mission, he didn't expect Viserys being dead, and from reading the chapter, I don't think he fells confident entrusting the sand snakes with these tasks. And I like the sand snakes.

Doran is known for being a very cautious man and it has been probed that he has a strategy in mind. Since Kevan's death was archived by Varys that makes me belive that Doran knew it was going to happend (or he may have planned it as well)... without Kevan, the Lannister house is more weak than ever and I belive that Doran will support Aegon. I have the feeling that something will happen between Aegon and Arianne, who is known to be traveling by the order of his father to discover the truth about Aegon Tagaryen (in the next book). With the sand snakes inside KL and Aegon with Arianne, Doran's plans would follow the same course.

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Oh yeah, I forgot about that quote. Do you really think Doran's plans will work, because Quentyn has failed his mission, he didn't expect Viserys being dead, and from reading the chapter, I don't think he fells confident entrusting the sand snakes with these tasks. And I like the sand snakes.

Whether Quentyn's mission failed or not all depends on what Doran was trying to achieve. We're asked to believe he sent his dumpy frogboy of a son to woo the beautiful Dragon Queen. Did Doran really think Quent was going to sweep Dany off her feet? I doubt it.

A proposal in Westeros is strategic. Dany has an army that represents a major threat to Dorne. They know she's making for Westeros sooner or later, and they also know Dorne is in the way. Dorne has a track record of dealing with dragons better than most but it's fair to say not dealing with dragons at all is preferable to dealing with dragons, and also there's the huge army as well.

This failed proposal to Dany has some significant advantages for Dorne. There's a reason the proposal frequently mentioned the ties House Martell have to Daenerys' family. They wanted to remind her they are not a threat, that she can pass through Dorne without resorting to unpleasantness. Logically, that means she has bigger priorities. Most likely the Lannisters, who the Dornish hate but don't have the manpower to confront directly. (He probably didn't expect Quent to go dragon hunting, or he'd have given him access to the books Arianne could have read when imprisoned.

If we look at Viserys, it would have been different if Doran publicly backed him. Viserys became a joke, the beggar king, which is an indicator he was receiving no help from his Dornish allies. He did however have a claim. It is possible he could gather forces around him and make a bid for the Iron Throne. If that's the case the marriage pact would be good for Dorne, if he dies they lose nothing. Another advantage is that years later he can send his dumpy frog boy Quent to remind Viserys' sister of their historic allegiances and thereby postpone dragon invasion.

Normally in Westeros we see people 'saving' their children for marriage match ups that are as beneficial as possible to their house (with one exception being the Freys who have kids to spare to be fair.) That requires rejecting proposals from less beneficial houses and incurring enmities along the way.

I think Doran has realised a failed marriage proposal is as good as an accepted one, better even, since normally you'd have a spare kid who can propose again and incur further benefits. I suspect Arianne's proposal doesn't need to be accepted either to incur a lot of benefits for Dorne. Doran still hasn't publicly backed anybody, but the two biggest threats to the status quo in Westeros (aside from the Others who can't be factoring into Doran's plans) have essentially been neutered as a threat to Dorne.

Re - the Sand Snakes. They are like their father. Doran actually did a remarkable job of controlling them even if it was difficult. They are prone to recklessness and as 'the grass that hides the viper' Doran sees it as his job to rein them in, At present Doran has a Sand Snake on the council of Kings Landing. He has one in the Sept. He has one in Oldtown (I will argue to the death Sarella is there on Doran's orders). These places are key to what will unfold in the future, and Dorne seem to be the only people aware of this. Given the ability of the Sand Snakes to murder stealthily, you might suspect they're there to assassinate, and that's possible, but the intelligence they can provide is arguably more valuable.

Not that I think Dorne will necessarily triumph. There are threats (like the Others) Doran isn't even aware of. Things could go wrong. But Dorne appear to be preparing for every eventuality, as opposed to the most immediate threats, and they seem to be the only house in Westeros doing that. When they strike, they'll strike surgically.

So yeah, sorry for the ramble, Dornish are one of my favourite houses.

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Whether Quentyn's mission failed or not all depends on what Doran was trying to achieve. We're asked to believe he sent his dumpy frogboy of a son to woo the beautiful Dragon Queen. Did Doran really think Quent was going to sweep Dany off her feet? I doubt it.

A proposal in Westeros is strategic. Dany has an army that represents a major threat to Dorne. They know she's making for Westeros sooner or later, and they also know Dorne is in the way. Dorne has a track record of dealing with dragons better than most but it's fair to say not dealing with dragons at all is preferable to dealing with dragons, and also there's the huge army as well.

This failed proposal to Dany has some significant advantages for Dorne. There's a reason the proposal frequently mentioned the ties House Martell have to Daenerys' family. They wanted to remind her they are not a threat, that she can pass through Dorne without resorting to unpleasantness. Logically, that means she has bigger priorities. Most likely the Lannisters, who the Dornish hate but don't have the manpower to confront directly. (He probably didn't expect Quent to go dragon hunting, or he'd have given him access to the books Arianne could have read when imprisoned.

If we look at Viserys, it would have been different if Doran publicly backed him. Viserys became a joke, the beggar king, which is an indicator he was receiving no help from his Dornish allies. He did however have a claim. It is possible he could gather forces around him and make a bid for the Iron Throne. If that's the case the marriage pact would be good for Dorne, if he dies they lose nothing. Another advantage is that years later he can send his dumpy frog boy Quent to remind Viserys' sister of their historic allegiances and thereby postpone dragon invasion.

Normally in Westeros we see people 'saving' their children for marriage match ups that are as beneficial as possible to their house (with one exception being the Freys who have kids to spare to be fair.) That requires rejecting proposals from less beneficial houses and incurring enmities along the way.

I think Doran has realised a failed marriage proposal is as good as an accepted one, better even, since normally you'd have a spare kid who can propose again and incur further benefits. I suspect Arianne's proposal doesn't need to be accepted either to incur a lot of benefits for Dorne. Doran still hasn't publicly backed anybody, but the two biggest threats to the status quo in Westeros (aside from the Others who can't be factoring into Doran's plans) have essentially been neutered as a threat to Dorne.

Re - the Sand Snakes. They are like their father. Doran actually did a remarkable job of controlling them even if it was difficult. They are prone to recklessness and as 'the grass that hides the viper' Doran sees it as his job to rein them in, At present Doran has a Sand Snake on the council of Kings Landing. He has one in the Sept. He has one in Oldtown (I will argue to the death Sarella is there on Doran's orders). These places are key to what will unfold in the future, and Dorne seem to be the only people aware of this. Given the ability of the Sand Snakes to murder stealthily, you might suspect they're there to assassinate, and that's possible, but the intelligence they can provide is arguably more valuable.

Not that I think Dorne will necessarily triumph. There are threats (like the Others) Doran isn't even aware of. Things could go wrong. But Dorne appear to be preparing for every eventuality, as opposed to the most immediate threats, and they seem to be the only house in Westeros doing that. When they strike, they'll strike surgically.

So yeah, sorry for the ramble, Dornish are one of my favourite houses.

Maybe it's just me, but everything seems to be going smoothly with his plans so far. I think Tyene will do well in her role as a septa, I think Nym will be watched closely by some of the members of the council, but Obara is the one we worried about, because for all we know Darkstar could be unpredictable and I know Obara is a very good fighter, but Balon is not to be underestimated.

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I always thought the lady ??? ( drawing a blank) the one cercei was making out with from essos. I thought with Dorans wife being in Essos that might be a connection.

There's no indication at all she's got anything to do with Dorne. It seems more likely she was Tyrell. The Dornish are not the only house making moves. I was referring to Nymeria the Sand Snake as the presence on the council. There isn't really anything to go on to let us know where Doran's wife is but she's almost certainly not in Kings Landing. It's an interesting question but impossible to debate with anything but guesses.

yankee211 - "Maybe it's just me, but everything seems to be going smoothly with his plans so far. I think Tyene will do well in her role as a septa, I think Nym will be watched closely by some of the members of the council, but Obara is the one we worried about, because for all we know Darkstar could be unpredictable and I know Obara is a very good fighter, but Balon is not to be underestimated."

True, but it hasn't gone perfectly. Quent probably wasn't supposed to be charbroiled. You bring up Obara and she's a great example of where it could go wrong. Honestly I'd be a little disappointed if the 'most dangerous man in Dorne' was taken out easily. I think Doran may be the best planner, and I think he's probably got the most sensible plan.

A sensible plan isn't always an effective plan. By always waiting for the perfect time to strike he might never find the perfect moment. Robert Baratheon's plan wasn't sensible. It was 'hit people with hammer till there's no one left to hit.' It was a successful plan though, whereas Doran is spinning a hell of a lot of plates. They all seem like important plates, and I think it only takes a couple of them to fall. At the end Dorne is small and vulnerable if he gets it wrong.

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Doran once had Lewyn and Elia in KL, as part of Rhaegars group, but they were not the only ones. And some of these people most likely still reside in KL..

That being said, it could also have been Varys.

We have a Dornish Debates thread, where discussions in everything Dorne are welcome :)

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/118253-dornish-debates-iii-of-kings-and-courts

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Doran once had Lewyn and Elia in KL, as part of Rhaegars group, but they were not the only ones. And some of these people most likely still reside in KL..

That being said, it could also have been Varys.

We have a Dornish Debates thread, where discussions in everything Dorne are welcome :)

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/118253-dornish-debates-iii-of-kings-and-courts

It is interesting to me that Varys may have effectively covered up the murder of Tywin (if you believe Oberyn poisoned him). Nice one for the link, I will check it out. The Dornish storylines are becoming the most interesting for me.

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It is interesting to me that Varys may have effectively covered up the murder of Tywin (if you believe Oberyn poisoned him). Nice one for the link, I will check it out. The Dornish storylines are becoming the most interesting for me.

I'm not entirely certain on the "Oberyn poisoned Gregor" theory myself..

If you like the dornish storylines, I would also recommend this re-read of Arianne Martell.. :) We've discussed it in rather big detail ;)

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Honestly thanks for this. I've just been getting up to date with your last link and there's just so much good stuff there. I've had a couple of attempts at trying to work out what's going on with Doran, but there was always a gap. (Had Darkstar down as the mole at one stage.) The Noone told and Vulture King theories feel like the missing pieces. I'll definitely try and contribute in the future (though not sure what I have to add, you guys really know your stuff.) I will devour anything you can point me to gratefully, cheers again!

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