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Southern Ambitions theory, is it valid or not?


King Jon Targaryen I

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I think it is. The Westerosi system works (well, it doesn't, but let's roll with it) by dividing the vassals, specially so since the King is rather weak compared to the more powerful Lords - at least since the dragons died. So, suddenly, in a single generation we have:


Starks marrying to the Tullys and Baratheons.


Lord Baratheon being warded together with the next Lord Stark's younger brother by the Lord of the Vale


Tywin Lannister wanting in, but unable to do so because Jaime is Cerseisexual, Cersei is Kingsexual, Tyrion is a dwarf and Aerys preempted him



What we have is the intentional creation of a power block which, if united, would be more powerful than the rest of the realm, let alone the Targaryen, together. This, in a nutshell, are the Southern Ambitions.



And, now that the world book has been released, we may have precedents as to why it happened, maesters conspiracy non withstanding:


Spoiler


Aegon V reign. He tried to use his sons to do precisely what the leaders of the Southern Ambitions attempted and failed. And he tried to do it to cut privileges from the nobles. So all this Lords (Stark, Tully, Arryn) who were raised by High Lords who were resisting monarchy policies that prejudiced them, might have decided to prevent any future monarch from attempting the same, by using the same tools Aegon V tried to use.


Forcing the Mad King to abdicate in favor of Rhaegar seems, if it was part of the conspiracy, accessory. The important thing is to join ranks and create a powerful block to preserve their interests.



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was it debunked by elio and linda?




Twoiaf says this:




When the Stark line was nearly obliterated by Mad King Aerys after Rhaegar’s abduction of Lyanna, some misguided men laid the blame at the feet of the late Lord Rickard, whose alliances by blood and friendship tied the great houses together and ensured that they would act together in response to the Mad King’s crimes



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If a Maester says the SA are BS, then they must be true right? after all the maesters were allegedly behind the move against the targaryens..



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Southern Ambitions as in Rickard Stark wanted the North more integrated with the South and more power in the court that was dominated by Lannisters and Targaryen stooges? Sure.

Southern Ambitions as in Rickard Stark was conspiring to overthrow the Targaryen dynasty? That's non-sense.

Because the race of angels that are the Starks can do no wrong, right?

He married his daughter to the next in line if Aerys's own family were set aside. That's got to be at least suspicious. And the maesters, who were angry about Summerhall, were putting him up to it ...

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Because the race of angels that are the Starks can do no wrong, right?

Because why would he? The Targaryens were being pretty friendly with the North until the local man (Aerys) ruins everything.

Cregan fought for Rhaenyra, Rickon Stark fought and died in Dorne and Egg relieved the North during the harsh winter. Why would Rickard suddenly want to destroy the Dynasty?

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SA are real. People take them too far in assuming they mean that Rickard Stark was a player.. that he wanted to overthrow the Targaryen dynasty..



in fact he wasn´t a player, he was a pawn.. being played by the true plotters:



That was how it was with Lord Rickard Stark. Maester Walys was his grey rat’s name. And isn’t it clever how the maesters go by only one name, even those who had two when they first arrived at the Citadel? That way we cannot know who they truly are or where they come from … but if you are dogged enough, you can still find out. Before he forged his chain, Maester Walys had been known as Walys Flowers. Flowers, Hill, Rivers, Snow … we give such names to baseborn children to mark them for what they are, but they are always quick to shed them. Walys Flowers had a Hightower girl for a mother … and an archmaester of the Citadel for a father, it was rumored. The grey rats are not as chaste as they would have us believe. Oldtown maesters are the worst of all. Once he forged his chain, his secret father and his friends wasted no time dispatching him to Winterfell to fill Lord Rickard’s ears with poisoned words as sweet as honey. The Tully marriage was his notion, never doubt it, he—”




Walys (and for all intents and purpose, the Archmaesters), wanted the Targaryens gone, so they filled his ear with notions of Southron ambitions, to ensure, that in the event of a civil war, a big coalition of great houses would defeat the targaryens..



It was never the intent of Rickard Stark to do so.. he just wanted to build good relations with other great houses

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You know, the Seven kingdoms post dragons were structured like a protection racket where the victims were also acting as muscle to the mobster against their own interests...



The king was collecting taxes and hommage and providing no services in exchange beside a modicum of refereeing. And if a Lord paramount was unruly, the king could only put him down with the support of the other lord paramounts because he has less armies than just about anyone!



'You pay up, Stark, or else Lannister and the others will break your legs! And hurry up, because then I need you to Threaten Lannister with the same. He's getting uppity too.' :lol:



It can barely work as long as the Lord Paramounts have limited communications with each other. This is a study in Game Theory.



But at some points, it's inevitable that the lord paramounts would look at each other, talk things through and think: 'This situation is moronic! Either we want more say in the governing of the seven kingdom, or we want to pay less taxes.'



With Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully and Robert Baratheon being friendly and Tywin Lannister at least being a war comrade of three of these during the Penny king Rebellions, it's possible that this may have been what was starting to happen. That's a lot of Lord Paramounts having comminucation channels... At any rate, if they start to heavily inter-marry (as was happening pre-rebellion), such discussions were becoming more and more likely to take place. This a case of 'divide to conquer' as the Targaryens could only rule as long as the Lord Paramounts were divided and more or less antagonistic to each other's interests.


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SA are real. People take them too far in assuming they mean that Rickard Stark was a player.. that he wanted to overthrow the Targaryen dynasty..

in fact he wasn´t a player, he was a pawn.. being played by the true plotters:

Walys (and for all intents and purpose, the Archmaesters), wanted the Targaryens gone, so they filled his ear with notions of Southron ambitions, to ensure, that in the event of a civil war, a big coalition of great houses would defeat the targaryens..

It was never the intent of Rickard Stark to do so.. he just wanted to build good relations with other great houses

And how is that Barbey Dustin is aware of this secret citadel plot to overthrow the Targs?

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Because why would he? The Targaryens were being pretty friendly with the North until the local man (Aerys) ruins everything.

Cregan fought for Rhaenyra, Rickon Stark fought and died in Dorne and Egg relieved the North during the harsh winter. Why would Rickard suddenly want to destroy the Dynasty?

The Targaryen were taxing them and providing nothing in return. That always has a way of irritating people, no matter how friendly the tax collector.

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Well we have this situation


Rickard arranging a marriage between Brandon and Cat ( Stark + Tully ) , Lyanna and Robert ( Stark + Baratheon ) , giving Ned to Jon Arryn for fostering and Robert joining Ned ( Stark + Arryn + Baratheon ) , and the last we have Tywin attempting to arrange a marriage between Jaime and Lysa ( Lannister + Tully ) but of course are Sweet Cersei had to fuck up things . This can not be a coincidence that all of the sudden 5 great houses are joining each other in marriage and fostering .


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"Southron ambitions" a throwaway mention in ADwD has become the most overly studied and trumped up phrase in the entire series.


My question with every single one of these hack theories is this: How does it get revealed in a convincing and satisfactory way and not disrupt the main story?


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"Southron ambitions" a throwaway mention in ADwD has become the most overly studied and trumped up phrase in the entire series.

Yeah, suddenly the words of a bitter woman from a relatively minor that quite possibly is simply playing Roose and using Theon to say what he wants to hear are undeniable proof of a conspiracy involving all the major lords of Westeros.

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And how is that Barbey Dustin is aware of this secret citadel plot to overthrow the Targs?

Brandon Stark shared his suspicions with her

She later got the truth out of her maester, with whom she was having an affair

She intercepted top secret communications between her maester and the citadel

She had Maester Wallis tortured for information

A good friend or kin of her became a maester and told her

Etc, etc. We just don't know, but since we know so little of Barbrey Dustin, there might be plenty of ways for her to find out.

The Targaryen were taxing them and providing nothing in return. That always has a way of irritating people, no matter how friendly the tax collector.

Well, Westeros is less prone to wars than before the Conquest. OTOH, when those war happen, they tend to engulf a larger portion of Westeros. To a point, it works - say regarding the Greyjoys: The Starks and Lannisters know they are likely to count on the Vale or the Stormlands for help against them, which would otherwise be unavailable, or those regiones will seize the opportunity to strike on their own if the Ironborn raid their lands.

But that doesn't mean the King's powers can't be kept on check, somehow.

"Southron ambitions" a throwaway mention in ADwD has become the most overly studied and trumped up phrase in the entire series.

My question with every single one of these hack theories is this: How does it get revealed in a convincing and satisfactory way and not disrupt the main story?

It pretty much was already. I don't think we'll get too much information on this.

SA are real. People take them too far in assuming they mean that Rickard Stark was a player.. that he wanted to overthrow the Targaryen dynasty..

in fact he wasn´t a player, he was a pawn.. being played by the true plotters:

Walys (and for all intents and purpose, the Archmaesters), wanted the Targaryens gone, so they filled his ear with notions of Southron ambitions, to ensure, that in the event of a civil war, a big coalition of great houses would defeat the targaryens..

It was never the intent of Rickard Stark to do so.. he just wanted to build good relations with other great houses

I don't think Rickard initially wanted to overthrow the Targaryen, and the Citadel might have not had that as their main goal. But I don't think Rickard wanted merely friendly relationships. He wanted to improve his position regarding the Iron Throne, and to do that, they've started the STABL alliance, which worked relatively well until Lysa sent one letter to Winterfell.

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The Targaryen were taxing them and providing nothing in return. That always has a way of irritating people, no matter how friendly the tax collector.

Who says they were providing nothing?

People don't expect social services from a medieval government. They want the government to maintain order, punish criminals, and protect the realm from foreign enemies. Throughout most of the Third Century, the Targaryen Kings seem to have done a reasonable job in these areas.

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Who says they were providing nothing?

People don't expect social services from a medieval government. They want the government to maintain order, punish criminals, and protect the realm from foreign enemies. Throughout most of the Third Century, the Targaryen Kings seem to have done a reasonable job in these areas.

The Local lords are the ones keeping justice and punishing criminals. And the Lord paramounts provides the armies to defend against threats, not the king. They might as well have an alliance and not pay taxes, they'll get the same result.

Without getting into social services, a central power worthy of the name could maintain a real standing army to protects area that are weathier in commerce than manpower, create various academies (military, science, arts...) to drive progress, build a road network, create a postal service, establish trade treatise, maintain a merchant fleet, codify laws and create a magistrature, support the development of little populated areas with ressources worth exploiting...

What did the Targaryen even do with the tax they collected?! 300 years and all the development they have to their name is the King's road, which is a glorified dirt road that is not even paved near the capital!

The government of the 7 kingdom was a farce. As I put it in my first post, it was a protection racket using the victims as the muscle against their own interest. 300 years of stagnation.

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