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How vulnerable are the Tyrells?


Stannatic

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It seems to me that outside of House Stark, House Tyrell is in the most precarious position of the Great Houses. The loyalty of some of their banner men is questionable, they are all in on the current poisonous regime it seems, their patriarch is an idiot and the Reach is in serious trouble. And unlike some of the other Great Houses, the Tyrell's don't have thousands of years of good will from their people to fall back on. Is the Tyrell position the most dangerous one in the game?


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Yes they have some very powerful bannermen, more than most houses and this can be a problem. They also have very capable male heirs in Garlan and Willas, however. It all turns on how they handle Euron. If Hightower is abandoned he will be bitter. But, if the GTC is true, they are safe until Dany arrives, I think.

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It seems to me that outside of House Stark, House Tyrell is in the most precarious position of the Great Houses. The loyalty of some of their banner men is questionable, they are all in on the current poisonous regime it seems, their patriarch is an idiot and the Reach is in serious trouble. And unlike some of the other Great Houses, the Tyrell's don't have thousands of years of good will from their people to fall back on. Is the Tyrell position the most dangerous one in the game?

Which ones? With textual references please.

The Tyrells are going to go down hard because the plot demands it, but they are nowhere near the peril the Starks, Lannisters, Arryns, Tullys and Baratheons face.

The Reach isn't in serious trouble - the Ironborn are about to face the Redwyne Fleet with only longboats and will never make it deep inland anyway. The Golden Company has less than ten thousand men. The Faith will be a very tough urban guerrilla if they decide to kill Margery, but the Tyrells can cut her free from the Faith and kill every sparrow in sight in King's Landing if they so desire. I think their only important risks are:

GRRM decides the Ironborn must win, a storm lay waste to the Redwyne Fleet while in transit

Dorne joins Aegon while all other fronts are still open

Dany arrives with dragons under her control and the Tyrells oppose her.

But with the situation as it is by the end of ADWD? They should get weakened, but not defeated.

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the Tyrells always had the support of the Targs as they are basically upjumped Castle butlers and maids over much greater houses. the Tyrells have married well into th other great houses of the Reach but the fact remain that they are still an upjumped house led by a complete idot in Mace Tyrell. Also, the have attached themselves to the most despised family in Lannister and to widely known or believed to be Bastards masquerading as Baratheons. This, along with an inevitable resurgeance of Targs in Dany or Faegon and they are poised to be left out when the throne changes hands again. Yes, I say they are vulnerable politically and with the Iron Born seemingly invading the Reach itself, militarily as well.


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Yes they have some very powerful bannermen, more than most houses and this can be a problem. They also have very capable male heirs in Garlan and Willas, however. It all turns on how they handle Euron. If Hightower is abandoned he will be bitter. But, if the GTC is true, they are safe until Dany arrives, I think.

Just so. The problem with the Tyrells is that they are a relatively new Lord Paramount House, and unlike many LPs their banner men's talents and power often outstrip their own.

Tarly is the best field commander, Redwyne has powerful ships and wines, HighTower=in a league of its own etc. etc. Mace is seems like a goof off figure head.

However, the Tyrells have one trump card: the small folks love. However the small folk can be quite fickle, and Margarey likely will be killed soon...

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Damn vulnerable. If they lose, they'll lose hard.

Rowan despises them. Hightower and Redwyne are dissatisfied. Florent wants them dead. The Shield Islands feel betrayed. Tarly is insulted left and right. They live as long as they have success, and not a second longer.

Where's the proof of this? Rowan despises the Lannisters, Hightower and Redwyne know Cersei was the one holding back the Fleet, the Shield Islands' sole hope is Garlan's army, and Tarly's "insult" was being appointed Master of Laws/Justiciar

That said, their bannermen are all in a perfect position to switch sides, but it'll likely be a chain reaction starting from the fall of Storm's End.

And I don't think they'll get necessarily obliterated. Sure, I could see some (Mace) dying, but the rest are clever enough to know when to quit.

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Damn vulnerable. If they lose, they'll lose hard.

Rowan despises them.

Where are you getting this from? Mathis Rowan is clearly doing fine under Mace, so much so that he was on Renly's and Tywin's councils.

Hightower and Redwyne are dissatisfied.

Again, where are you getting this from? Mace's mother is a Redwyne and his wife is a Hightower. Mace is Hand, likely to be Regent, and Margaery is Queen, so what more could they want?

Florent wants them dead.

Yes but so what? They are currently freezing in the North and their de facto lord's best marriage prospect is a wildling "princess." Their actual lord was executed by Stannis, and his heir is seeking refuge at Oldtown, where Mace's in laws live. Their lands and keep have been taken over by the Garlan Tyrell. So they are hardly a threat.

The Shield Islands feel betrayed.

The Shield Islands have better things to do than plot betrayal while the Ironborn are around, and anyway, the Redwyne fleet is coming to help.

Tarly is insulted left and right.

He's been Mace's sword arm for years now, and has gotten lands, a marriage for his heir, a privileged place at Mace's councils, a seat on the Small Council out of the deal, and could rise even higher.

I've been hearing this "Reach bannermen hate Mace and will jump ship for Aegon" stuff for a while now and I have yet to see even a shred of evidence to back this up. People are taking the GC's supposed "friends in the Reach" comment way too seriously, and are totally underestimating the sheer amount of risk it would be for any one Reach house to defect. No, Tarly is not going to rebel because he feels "insulted" because Mace is taking the credit for his victory at Ashford or because he did not receive Brightwater Keep, or because he is serving a pompous idiot. That would be taking a gigantic risk due to nothing more than wounded pride, and even Tywin, a notoriously proud man, was not stupid enough to do that, despite having more power and, arguably, more reason to feel insulted at Aerys' treatment of him than Tarly ever did with respect to Mace. At this point, aside from Highgarden itself, there is literally nothing that Aegon could promise him that Mace could not give him more easily.

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Olenna- Depends on teh Redwynes, but she is in it to win it.
Mace- u no he ded

Alerie- If the Hightowers turncloak she gunna be kicking Maces arse and running back to daddy.

Willas- He's fine. FOR NOW.

Garlan- he gunna be dead fighting Ser Harras Harlaw, which has reasonable foreshadowing

Loras- probs dead

Margaery- u no she dead

As a house? Depends on the Martells and Aegon really. Not the Lannisters. Plus there is 50 relatives in Oldtown, so when the Tyrells occupy Brightwater Keep the Florents will take Highgarden

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Just so. The problem with the Tyrells is that they are a relatively new Lord Paramount House, and unlike many LPs their banner men's talents and power often outstrip their own.

Tarly is the best field commander, Redwyne has powerful ships and wines, HighTower=in a league of its own etc. etc. Mace is seems like a goof off figure head.

However, the Tyrells have one trump card: the small folks love. However the small folk can be quite fickle, and Margarey likely will be killed soon...

I'm not so sure about Marge, I'm inclined to think that the High Septon may go easy on her, especially with Mace marching from SE to...hang around with his army. The Faith Militant are an OK deterrent, but the HS wont commit suicide. If Cersei's trial goes to pot in some way, ie UnGregor reveal, the Tyrells are the only hope to avoid anarchy, especially if good ol' Kev steps back in on the Lannister side. If Loras is actually OK that will massively change things too, IMO.
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"The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines".

I think Peake knows (from his own relatives back in the Reach) that many Lords are very displeased with Mace being more focused on being close the court than worrying about his own lands and men.

Also, that they are seen as turncloaks every now and then. Men of honour would not like to be seen in this way, imo.

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They have the Dornish army waiting in the mountains, the Golden Company in the Stormlands, Euron circling around near Oldtown, and now that they've established themselves as the power in King's Landing they need to defend that, too.



I don't know about the loyalty of their bannermen, but they'll be going up against a lot of new enemies soon enough (nevermind Dany's inevitable arrival and the potential for Stannis 2: Northern Boogaloo).


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"The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines".

I think Peake knows (from his own relatives back in the Reach) that many Lords are very displeased with Mace being more focused on being close the court than worrying about his own lands and men.

Also, that they are seen as turncloaks every now and then. Men of honour would not like to be seen in this way, imo.

The full quote is maybe more revealing,

"Even after a century, some of us still have friends in the Reach. The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines." Potentially a nice bit of forshadowing.

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The full quote is maybe more revealing,

"Even after a century, some of us still have friends in the Reach. The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines." Potentially a nice bit of forshadowing.

Yep. That's kinda what I said: "I think Peake knows (from his own relatives back in the Reach)". The Peakes were BF loyalists, IICR, so, I think they kinda were always in contact with the GC. See here.

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Damn vulnerable. If they lose, they'll lose hard.

Rowan despises them. Hightower and Redwyne are dissatisfied. Florent wants them dead. The Shield Islands feel betrayed. Tarly is insulted left and right. They live as long as they have success, and not a second longer.

Remind me again why the Shield Islands feel betrayed?

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Yep. That's kinda what I said: "I think Peake knows (from his own relatives back in the Reach)". The Peakes were BF loyalists, IICR, so, I think they kinda were always in contact with the GC. See here.

Good post. I didn't that was covered in another thread.

I've been trying to get an idea on who these potential "friends" could be. No luck. Maybe the world book has some clues.

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Good post. I didn't that was covered in another thread.

I've been trying to get an idea on who these potential "friends" could be. No luck. Maybe the world book has some clues.

Well, first, I think it's a good start to look at the Vale. They DON'T want to remain the next war seated on their asses, they definitely did not want to do that during the Wot5K, whey wanted to join and help Robb. That's because in their world, that's what they are meant to do: fight the wars. That is honour. When a Liege Lord or someone you care for calls for your help, and you don't go, it's dishonouring. Robb was Ned's son, Ned was raised/fostered in the Vale, they cared for him. Not helping Robb was dishonouring for many of them, or at least, not very knightly.

With the Reach, something similar could be happening. Mace isn't exactly a men who has leaded them into battle. All they did was to siege in the Robellion, and in this war, they first went from Renly to the Lannisters. And now, they are simply being send around by Cersei. Margaery asked for help to the S.Islands and Cersei pretty much said FU. So, which Houses can we guess are fed up?

The Tarlys, they are a warrior House.

The Rowans and Redwynes, who were now apparently dismissed from the Council.

The Hightowers, suspiciously quiet.

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I think this might be a sort of replay of the whole Riverlands thing. Like the Tullys the Tyrells are a house literally raised up by the Targs and don't have the many generations of loyalty/service that can be claimed by old Houses like Lannister and Arryn. The lands of the Reach might end up burning like the Riverlands in a situation especially if a DotD 2.0 plays out with dragons, dothrakhi and ironmen all about. Lords will rush back to their own keeps only to be decimated piecemeal by opposing sides.



Edit: Side note, would you consider House Baratheon an "old house" on the level of Arryn and Stark? I might've used that claim once or twice but always thought that regardless of the Orys Baratheon thing the House as most know it is essentially the Durradons with Baratheon copy pasted over the name.


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Well, first, I think it's a good start to look at the Vale. They DON'T want to remain the next war seated on their asses, they definitely did not want to do that during the Wot5K, whey wanted to join and help Robb. That's because in their world, that's what they are meant to do: fight the wars. That is honour. When a Liege Lord or someone you care for calls for your help, and you don't go, it's dishonouring. Robb was Ned's son, Ned was raised/fostered in the Vale, they cared for him. Not helping Robb was dishonouring for many of them, or at least, not very knightly.

With the Reach, something similar could be happening. Mace isn't exactly a men who has leaded them into battle. All they did was to siege in the Robellion, and in this war, they first went from Renly to the Lannisters. And now, they are simply being send around by Cersei. Margaery asked for help to the S.Islands and Cersei pretty much said FU. So, which Houses can we guess are fed up?

The Tarlys, they are a warrior House.

The Rowans and Redwynes, who were now apparently dismissed from the Council.

The Hightowers, suspiciously quiet.

I agree.

I had always suspected that Cersei's machinations might cause the Tyrells to get fed up & try to form an alliance with someone else, But it's interesting to think: Indifference from the crown regarding the Ironborn invasion and Margey's trial were orchestrated by Cersei to weaken the Tyrells. What if that goes completely sideways and actually contributes to individual houses rebelling against House Tyrell and the crown? (that is to say, Cersei's folly is even worse than expected) The Peake quote suggests Aegon could be the perfect catalyst for that.

I don't have any quotes ready to hand and maybe the information just isn't available, but I'd have to think that public opinion in the Reach is going against the crown right now. The Reach contributed a lot to the Lannister victory and is helping to keep the peace with a steady supply of food to the capital. Their efforts haven't gotten them much. Your typical minor lord probably takes small consolation that Margey is Queen and Mace is Hand when he's got ironmen breathing down his neck.

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The Tyrells are in the same position than the Tullys, they have powerful bannermans with not so much loyalty, and the Tyrells can be replace easily by a more prestigious and powerful bannerman. The Florents aren't the only ones who resent the Tyrells for their position, Oakheart, Tarly, Hightower, Rowan, Redwyne are more prestigious than the Tyrells and they probably see themselves more fit to be lord paramount than the Tyrells. That's why the Tyrells was always careful to keep their distance from Westeros politics until now. I don't think the reach are treacherous by nature and are plotting against the Tyrells, but i don't think they are loyal either, just give them a very good reason to fight against the Tyrells and they will. I think the reason is going to be Aegon or Dany.


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