(f)Aegon in TWoIaF

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

(f)Aegon in TWoIaF

Warning, English is not my first language.

I believe the (f)Aegon theory comes out stronger from Twoiaf. What new evidences, hints, foreshadowing and so on can be found in the new book to support the theory?

The elusive female line:

ADWD implied that there still was a female line of house blackfyre. Twoiaf reinforces this belief:

The realm would continue to be troubled by the claims of the Blackfyre Pretenders for four more generations, until the last of the descendants of Daemon Blackfyre through the male line was sent to the grave.

We are also given the possible ancestors of (f)Aegon:

Whatever the case may be, Aegor Rivers soon began to press Daemon Blackfyre to proclaim for the throne, and all the more so after Daemon agreed to wed his eldest daughter, Calla, to Aegor.

This also ties Bittersteel to the Varys-Illyrio conspiracy which makes a lot of sense to me.

The Smiling Skulls:

In Essos, Bittersteel gathered exiled lords and knights, and their descendants, to him. He formed the Golden Company in 212 AC, and soon established it as the foremost free company of the Disputed Lands. “Beneath the gold, the bitter steel” became their battle cry, renowned across Essos. After Bittersteel, the company was led by descendants of Daemon Blackfyre until the last of them, Maelys the Monstrous, was slain in the Stepstones.

After Bittersteel the Golden Company was led by blackfyres. Probably sort of hereditary position. Since Descendants is plural, there must be more than one (Maelys)

MAELYS BLACKFYRE, THE MONSTROUS: Captain of the Golden Company, named for his grotesquely huge torso and arms, fearsome strength, and savage nature. A second head grew from his neck, no bigger than a fist. He won command of the Golden Company by fighting his cousin, Daemon Blackfyre, for it, killing his cousin’s destrier with a single punch and then twisting Daemon’s head until it was torn from his shoulders.

At least Daemon Blackfyre was probably one of those leaders of the Golden Company. But there could be more Blackfyre captains

Death had robbed him of his ears, his nose, and all his warmth. The smile remained, transformed into a glittering golden grin. All the skulls were grinning, even Bittersteel’s on the tall pike in the center. What does he have to grin about? He died defeated and alone, a broken man in an alien land. On his deathbed, Ser Aegor Rivers had famously commanded his men to boil the flesh from his skull, dip it in gold, and carry it before them when they crossed the sea to retake Westeros. His successors had followed his example.

If there were many Blackfyre leaders of the GC, the golden smiling skulls make a lot of sense. Clearly they would be happy to know they will soon go back home to support a new blackfyre king.

Especially Bittersteel, if (f)Aegon descends from him.

SERRA:

PRINCESS VISERRA

Viserra was betrothed to Lord Manderly of White Harbor only to die by mishap shortly afterward. A wild, high-spirited maid, she fell from a horse while racing drunkenly through the streets of King’s Landing.

SEPTA MAEGELLE

Given to the Faith, Maegelle grew to be a septa known for her compassion and her gift for healing. She was the chief cause of the reconciliation of the Old King and Queen Alysanne in 94 AC, following the Second Quarrel. She nursed children afflicted with greyscale, but she became afflicted with the same illness and died in 96 AC.

PRINCESS SAERA

Though given to the Faith as Maegelle was, Saera did not have Maegelle’s temperament. She ran away from the motherhouse where she was a novice and crossed the narrow sea. She was at Lys for a time, then Old Volantis, where she ended her days as the proprietor of a famous pleasure house.

This can´t be a coincidence. Serra also died from Greyscale, spent time in Lys, and worked (though not as a proprietor) in a pleasure house.

The passage of Jaehaerys´s daughters links Serra to the blood of the dragon.

Tyrosh:

Tyrosh seems to have extreme importance in the Blackfyre history:

Although he could not—and would not—rescind his father’s last wishes, he did what he could to keep the Great Bastards close, treating them honorably and continuing the incomes that the king had bestowed on them. He paid the dowry that Aegon had promised to the Archon of Tyrosh, thereby seeing his half brother Daemon Blackfyre wed to Rohanne of Tyrosh as Aegon had desired, for all that Ser Daemon was only four-and-ten.

(…)

In the aftermath, King Daeron showed a sternness that few expected. Many lords and knights who had supported the Black Dragon had lands and seats and privileges stripped from them and were forced to give over hostages. Daeron had trusted them, had done all he could to rule justly, and still they turned against him. Daemon Blackfyre’s surviving sons fled to Tyrosh, their mother’s home, and with them went Bittersteel.

(…)

Before the year was out, he crowned Haegon’s eldest son as King Daemon III Blackfyre in Tyrosh, and resumed his plotting against the king who had spared him.

(…)

Even as the Great Council was debating, however, another claimant appeared in King’s Landing: none other than Aenys Blackfyre, the fifth of the Black Dragon’s seven sons. When the Great Council had first been announced, Aenys had written from exile in Tyrosh, putting forward his case in the hope that his words might win him the Iron Throne that his forebears had thrice failed to win with their swords. Bloodraven, the King’s Hand, had responded by offering him a safe conduct, so the pretender might come to King’s Landing and present his claim in person.

(…)

In the Battle of Wendwater Bridge, the Blackfyres suffered a shattering defeat, and Daemon III was slain by the Kingsguard knight Ser Duncan the Tall, the hedge knight for whom “Egg” had served as a squire. Bittersteel eluded capture and escaped once again, only to emerge a few years later in the Disputed Lands, fighting with his sellswords in a meaningful skirmish between Tyrosh and Myr.

(…)

THE TRAGEDY OF Summerhall brought Jaehaerys, the Second of His Name, to the Iron Throne in 259 AC. Scarcely had he donned the crown than the Seven Kingdoms found themselves plunged into war, for the Ninepenny Kings had taken and sacked the Free City of Tyrosh and seized the Stepstones; from there, they stood poised to attack Westeros.

(…)

THE NAMES AND STYLES OF THE BAND OF NINE, WHO CAUSED GREAT TURMOIL IN ESSOS AND THE STEPSTONES
(...)
ALEQUO ADARYS, THE SILVERTONGUE: A Tyroshi merchant prince who was wealthy and ambitious.

(…)

Half a year of hard fighting remained before the Stepstones and the Disputed Lands were freed from the remaining Band of Nine, and it would be six years before Alequo Adarys, the Tyrant of Tyrosh, was poisoned by his queen and the Archon of Tyrosh was restored. For the Seven Kingdoms, it had been a grand victory, though not without cost in lives or suffering.

The Blackfyres seem to have been always supported by the Tyroshi regime, since Daemon´s wife was daughter of an Archon (?), until Maelys killed his cousin Daemon (probably from an elder line) and took control of the Golden Company to invade Tyrosh and install his partner Alequo Adarys as King.

Tyrosh also has some links to Illyrio:

Illyrio whispered to them. “Those three are Drogo’s bloodriders, there,” he said. “By the pillar is Khal Moro, with his son Rhogoro. The man with the green beard is brother to the Archon of Tyrosh, and the man behind him is Ser Jorah Mormont.”

(…)

“I know, you were hoping for a wheel of cheese.” Tyrion turned to Young Griff and gave the lad his most disarming smile. “Blue hair may serve you well in Tyrosh, but in Westeros children will throw stones at you and girls will laugh in your face.”

The lad was taken aback. “My mother was a lady of Tyrosh. I dye my hair in memory of her.”

(…)

The dwarf ignored him. “The blue hair makes your eyes seem blue, that’s good. And the tale of how you color it in honor of your dead Tyroshi mother was so touching it almost made me cry.

(…)

The lesson began with languages. Young Griff spoke the Common Tongue as if he had been born to it, and was fluent in High Valyrian, the low dialects of Pentos, Tyrosh, Myr, and Lys, and the trade talk of sailors.

Now, if you believe as I do, in the Brightfyre theory, in which Illyrio is Aegon´s father and in turn the blackfyre descendant from female line, twoiaf makes a lot of sense. He knows the archon ´s brother (after Alequo´s fall the previous regime returned to power). They would certainly be friendly if Illyrio comes from the dispossed line of Daemon Blackfyre (killed by Maelys)

Also, Illyrio made Aegon dye his hair in honor to his tyroshy mother. Maybe he had a Tyroshi GrandMother. After all, in asoiaf the best lies are those with some truth in it.

If Illyrio is the Blackfyre through female line he would have a Tyroshi mother.

AEGON’s looks:

One of the problems of the (F)aegon theory are aegon´s physical traits. He looks perfect Valyrian. Yet his parents (for those of us that believe in (f)Aegon) don´t have the perfect Targaryen traits.

How does that work?

In the Brightfyre theory (f)Aegon would have targaryen blood on both sides

Now we know how the Lyseni´s handle their slave breeding policy:

The Lyseni are also great breeders of slaves, mating beauty with beauty in hopes of producing ever more refined and lovely courtesans and bedslaves. The blood of Valyria still runs strong in Lys, where even the smallfolk oft boast pale skin, silver-gold hair, and the purple, lilac, and pale blue eyes of the dragonlords of old. .

The great beauty of the Valyrians—with their hair of palest silver or gold and eyes in shades of purple not found amongst any other peoples of the world—is well-known, and often held up as proof that the Valyrians are not entirely of the same blood as other men. Yet there are maesters who point out that, by careful breeding of animals, one can achieve a desirable result, and that populations in isolation can often show quite remarkable variations from what might be regarded as common.

Serra, even if she doesn´t show the perfect Valyrian hair and eyes, would certainly have recessive genes. The fact that she has golden hair streaked with silver seem to indicate this. The chances of Aegon looking perfect Targaryen do increase.

Pretender Kings:

When the Tpatq was published I thought there was some foreshadowing of (f)aegon:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/101984-moments-of-foreshadowing-7-tpatq-spoilers/?p=5292816

Amidst the chaos and carnage brought on by their rivalry, other would-be kings would stake claims as well, strutting about like mummers on a stage for a fortnight or a moon’s turn, only to fall as swiftly as they had arisen.

(…)

During that long night, chaos held sway over half the city, whilst strange lords and kings of misrule squabbled o’er the rest. A hedge knight named Ser Perkin the Flea crowned his own squire Trystane, a stripling of sixteen years, declaring him to be a natural son of the late King Viserys. Any knight can make a knight, and when Ser Perkin began dubbing every sellsword, thief, and butcher’s boy who flocked to Trystane’s ragged banner, men and boys appeared by the hundreds to pledge themselves to his cause.

Would-be kings / fake kings.

Mummers on a stage / Aegon is the mummer´s dragon

During a long Night/ Long Night 2.0

Chaos, carnage, strange lords and kings of misrule that squabble over the realm / War of the five Kings, feast of crows

A Hedge Knight/ JonCon is a landless knight since the Mad king stripped his lands and send him to exile.

Crowns his squire (son?) Trystane a stripling of sixteen years/ (f)Aegon is also sixteen according to Tyrion, and the Illyrio´s statue

Natural son of Viserys/ (F)aegon also comes from a bastard line

Knighting Sellswords/ Griff knighted Duck.

Sellswords flocking to his banner: Aegon and the Golden Company

Ser Perkin/ seems an obvious reference to Perkin Warbeck a pretender to the English throne that claimed to be Richard of Shrewsbury, Duke of York, one of the “princes in the Tower”, murdered not unlike Aegon and Rhaenys.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perkin_Warbeck

The World of ice and Fire brings more information of Trystane:

Madness gripped the city after Rhaenyra fled, and it showed itself in many ways. Strangest of all was the rise of two pretender kings who reigned during the time remembered as the Moon of the Three Kings.

The first was Trystane Truefyre, a squire to a disreputable hedge knight named Ser Perkin the Flea, who Ser Perkin declared was the natural son of Viserys I. After the storming of the Dragonpit and Rhaenyra’s flight, the Shepherd and his mob ruled much of the city, but Ser Perkin installed Trystane in the abandoned Red Keep and began to issue edicts. When Aegon II eventually retook the city, Trystane begged the boon of knighthood before he was executed, and this he received.

The other king was curiouser still—a child who became known as Gaemon Palehair. The son of a whore, this four-year-old boy was claimed to be a bastard of Aegon II (which was not improbable, given the king’s bawdy ways in his youth). From his seat in the House of Kisses atop Visenya’s Hill, he gathered followers by the thousands and issued a series of edicts. His mother later was hanged, having confessed he was the son of a silver-haired oarsman from Lys, but Gaemon was spared and taken into the king’s household. In time he befriended Aegon III, becoming his constant companion and food taster for some years, before dying of poison that might have been intended for the king himself.

Trystane TrueFyre/… like.. Really? Way to be subtle.

Disreputable Hedge Knight: JonCon also lost reputation with Varys plot. He faked his death in shame after stealing gold from the GC:

Twoaif adds the other pretender king. I think both of them are hints to (F)Aegon.

Gaemon (almost like Aegon) Palehair Probably had targaryen silver hair as Aegon does.

His mother was a whore. Serra was a bedslave

He had his seat in Visenya´s Hill, were now stands the Great Sept of Baelor. Remember Aegon will probably have the Faith on his side during the Dance of Dragons.2.0

His true father (according to his mother´s confession) was from Lys. Serra was from Lys.

Gaemon was spared, like Perkin of Warbeck, who also was taken to court.

Also In Aegon III chapter:

In the chapter of Aegon III, a man appeared, claiming to be Daeron,the last brother of Aegon II whose body was never recovered.It is mentioned that all such pretenders are conclusively shown to be imposters.That reminds me of Young Griff.(I don't know if somebody said that earlier,I didn't read all 10 pages).

this is the quote:

Yet together, Aegon and Viserys ably dealt with the remaining turmoil in the realm. One such incident was the troublesome appearance of several pretenders claiming to be Prince Daeron the Daring—the youngest brother of Aegon II who was killed at Second Tumbleton but whose body was never identified—leaving the door open for unscrupulous men to make their false claims. (But those feigned princes have since been conclusively shown to be imposters.)

Varys Motives:

One of the advantages of the (f)Aegon blackfyre theory is that it explains Varys and Illyrio´s actions better. It gives them both a better motive to hide, train and finally sit Aegon on the IT. Gold, titles, honors doesn´t seem like enough to compel them to invest so much in this plot, but blood, and vengeance even, makes it more interesting and realistic story.

In Vary´s case, the counterargument is that all of his actions do make sense (not to me, but I saw this position defended many times), if we assume he has a personal loyalty to Aerys II. He allegedly poisoned the Mad king with suspicions of treasons and conspiracies against him, from everyone, including his son, Rhaegar. But Rhaegar was most definitely trying to depose his father (with reason), and if we believe the Southron Ambitions theory, there was a huge plot and a coalition being built to bring the Mad king down. So Varys could have been doing his job correctly. Denouncing true traitors right and left, was his job if those plotters were in fact real. The fact that Aerys handled wrongly that information is not his fault. After RR, he made the baby swap and spirited Aegon across the Narrow sea and started working towards the Targaryen Restoration.

So far so good, if we assume a personal loyalty towards Aerys II, not to house Targaryen, but towards Aerys personally. If Varys were loyal to House Targaryen, he should have supported Rhaegar, but if he were loyal to Aerys personally he would have to oppose Rhaegar, yet once dead and his dynasty overthrown, he should still work towards siting his heir on the IT

This would make sense, till now. In twoiaf we are told that Aerys wanted to disinherit Rhaegar:

When Prince Rhaegar and his new wife chose to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep, rumors flew thick and fast across the Seven Kingdoms. Some claimed that the crown prince was planning to depose his father and seize the Iron Throne for himself, whilst others said that King Aerys meant to disinherit Rhaegar and name Viserys heir in his place. Nor did the birth of King Aerys’s first grandchild, a girl named Rhaenys, born on Dragonstone in 280 AC, do aught to reconcile father and son. When Prince Rhaegar returned to the Red Keep to present his daughter to his own mother and father, Queen Rhaella embraced the babe warmly, but King Aerys refused to touch or hold the child and complained that she “smells Dornish.”

And he ended up disinheriting his grandson Aegon:

THE END

BIRDS FLEW AND couriers raced to bear word of the victory at the Ruby Ford. When the news reached the Red Keep, it was said that Aerys cursed the Dornish, certain that Lewyn had betrayed Rhaegar. He sent his pregnant queen, Rhaella, and his younger son and new heir, Viserys, away to Dragonstone, but Princess Elia was forced to remain in King’s Landing with Rhaegar’s children as a hostage against Dorne.

Notice this is after the Trident, and before the sack of KL. Aegon should be heir at that point, yet Yandel says Viserys is the “new heir”. This means Aerys changed the succession line after Rhaegar´s defeat.

So when Varys swaps the babies, and hides and educats Aegon and prepares the invasion to sit him on the IT, he isn´t carrying Aerys last wishes, but rather choosing the best targaryen, since Viserys was clearly mad as his father. Yet why choose now between targaryens to support, and not before?

If varys motives allow him to choose Aegon over Viserys, why not do it during the Targaryen rule with Rhaegar over Aeyrs? Something doesn´t make sense there.

Maegor:

One major hint for the Brightfyre theory is imo the name of Aerion's son. We have long theorized that Varys is Aerion's grandson. The fact that his father's name would be Maegor ties in nicely with Varys' intense knowlegde of the Red Keep. It was Maegor the Cruel who built the entire thing after all. Varys' ruthlessness with his little birds also seems to tie in with Maegor's desire to keep the secret passages secret.

Thoughts? Anything Im missing?

[Vylarr Rivers]

Great post thanks! I generally agree with you except for Illyrio being a Blackfyre descendant. I think if Serra and her ancestor(s) had a valyrian spouse (possible in Lys) the "Targaryen look" can be maintained for a few generations. Aurane Waters for example has very dominant valyrian traits and I doubt that the Velaryons practised inbreeding as much as the Targaryens did. His mother may not even have been valyrian as far as we know.

Do we know Illyrio's eye colour? Could they be blue? The eye colour of (f)Aegon is a bit different from Rhaegar and Aerys (described in the House of the Undying as dark purple). Jon Connington describes that (f)Aegon's eyes are a lighter shade (blue/purple I think?).

I realize it is a very vague and dodgy "evidence" yet I think that the "watered down" colour of Aegons eyes can be explained through him being the son of (female Blackfyre of some sort = valyrian) Serra + Illyrio (Pentoshi).

Regarding Aerys' succession: I think you answered the question yourself in the post. Aerys was mad and paranoid. After regarding Rhaegar as an enemy he was thinking of Rhaegar's family as hostages against the Dornish - not as possbile heirs. I doubt that he changed the law of succession though. He seemed more concerned with preparing to burn down KL at the time. ;)

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Great post thanks! I generally agree with you except for Illyrio being a Blackfyre descendant. I think if Serra and her ancestor(s) had a valyrian spouse (possible in Lys) the "Targaryen look" can be maintained for a few generations. Aurane Waters for example has very dominant valyrian traits and I doubt that the Velaryons practised inbreeding as much as the Targaryens did. His mother may not even have been valyrian as far as we know.

Do we know Illyrio's eye colour? Could they be blue? The eye colour of (f)Aegon is a bit different from Rhaegar and Aerys (described in the House of the Undying as dark purple). Jon Connington describes that (f)Aegon's eyes are a lighter shade (blue/purple I think?).

I realize it is a very vague and dodgy "evidence" yet I think that the "watered down" colour of Aegons eyes can be explained through him being the son of (female Blackfyre of some sort = valyrian) Serra + Illyrio (Pentoshi).

Regarding Aerys' succession: I think you answered the question yourself in the post. Aerys was mad and paranoid. After regarding Rhaegar as an enemy he was thinking of Rhaegar's family as hostages against the Dornish - not as possbile heirs. I doubt that he changed the law of succession though. He seemed more concerned with preparing to burn down KL at the time. ;)

A link to the brighfyre (brightflame + blackfyre) theory if you haven´t read it.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/104644-the-brightfyre-theory/

Aerys Succession. Yes i understand the mad king´s motives. Especially after twoiaf. I was thinking from varys perspective.

If Aegon is legit, Why does Varys support him undermining Viserys claim?

before twoiaf the answer was clear, Aegon was heir.. Now we know he wasn´t.

second possible reason would be, because Viserys was mad, Aegon is a better choice. But if so, Why didn´t Varys take the same possition during Rhaegar´s coup?? i mean if its ok to pick Aegon over Viserys, why didn´t he pick Rhaegar over Aerys?

if he was loyal to House Targaryen, as we are led to believe, allowing Rhaegar depose his father would be the best thing for House Targaryen. Rhaegar was very popular, and would have been a great king..

On the other hand, if he was loyal to Aerys personally, instead of loyal to house Targaryen, then after Aerys death, he would still want to crown Aerys intended heir (Viserys now)..

That´s what i mean that Varys doesn´t make sense..

[Vylarr Rivers]

You obviously have spent a lot more time thinking about this than I have, so I might be stuck in my way of thinking about this topic.

Varys never was loyal to either Rhaegar nor Aerys imo. Varys being a Blackfyre descendant explains his behaviour. His goal always to overthrow the Targaryens (and everyone else) standing in the way to the IT.

So he raised a fake boy, whose heritage has sparked many debates, to be the "perfect future king" (he didn't succeed but whatever...).

Varys supporting Viserys: Even if he beats the odds and Viserys ends on the throne, Varys could only rule as a regent until Viserys comes of age. After that the Targaryen lineage continues.

Varys and Aegon: The real Aegon is dead imo. But claiming fAegon is Aegon gives fAegon the strongest Targaryen claim there is at the moment. It's simply a way of packaging the old Targaryen claim and using it to heave a Blackfyre on the throne, which couldn't be achieved openly.

I hope my post is making sense, I'm quite tired sorry. ^^

[voodooqueen126]

Doesn't Gaemon Palehair parallel Lambert Simnel who eventually worked in the royal kitchens.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Doesn't Gaemon Palehair parallel Lambert Simnel who eventually worked in the royal kitchens.

nice

[Mithras]

Very nice OP.

I am also curious about the very good relations of Doran and the Archon of Tyrosh. Perhaps Doran joined the Black Dragon train many years ago.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Very nice OP.

I am also curious about the very good relations of Doran and the Archon of Tyrosh. Perhaps Doran joined the Black Dragon train many years ago.

if so i think some of his actions don´t make much sense.

i think GRRm is making things fit, so that Doran martell, and the three daughters fall into Team (f)Aegon in the near future.

[Snightlo]

Very good job puting all those hints together.

I didnt like Aegon to be fake immediatly, but I guess he is.

But I still cant like the theorised motives of Varys.

Basicly most are saying that he is doing it for the Realm or for later Titles (which no one can inherit) or Gold. But we know that he could be freaking rich without that whole plot, if he and Ilyrio just kept doing there thing in Pentos.

I personaly like the Idea, that Varys, who came from Lys is the brother of Serra. It is tinfoil I know, but it gives him a good motive. The Alliance with Ilyrio is no bound in blood and it does make sense now, why the Wizzard paid that much for Varys to cut off some special bodyparts. SO yeah that ould make him just another secret Targaryen/Valyrian, what nobody likes, but it was often said that Valyrian blood is still running strong in Lys. Boldness protects him from beeing that obviously Valyrian. I honestly dont know what eyecolor he has.

I dont say this is the real deal, but for me it does make sense. What do you guys think?

[Mithras]

But I still cant like the theorised motives of Varys.

Basicly most are saying that he is doing it for the Realm

Varys says "for the children" while Bowen says "for the Watch." Yet Varys killed a man who was stabilizing the situation in KL bringing the Tyrells back into the fold while Bowen was trying to kill Jon who was stabilizing the situation at the Wall by bringing the wildlings into the fold.

Varys says he is doing it for the children (he means like the ones whose tongues he had torn out?), yet he is doing it not for his purported altruistic motives, but since Kevan's actions clashed with his agenda, namely Aegon, while Kevan was backing the wrong king, according to Varys. Marsh is supposedly doing it for the Watch, yet he attempts to kill the LC for his plans clashing with his agenda, namely, not sealing the Wall, letting the wildlings through and not backing the right king. Marsh sees Tommen as the right king while Varys sees him as the wrong king.

[Lord Varys]

The idea that Kevan was actually stabilizing the Realm is a common misconception. He stabilized the relationship between the Lannister, the Tyrells, and the Faith, but even if there was no Varys and no Aegon, Ser Kevan and 'King Tommen' would not be the last guys standing at the end of the series. Ser Kevan threatened Aegon, that's why he had to go. Not because he was tying the Realm back together.

The Tyroshi are also not really important as full-time, on-going Blackfyre supporters. Rohanne's family apparently allowed the Blackfyres to hang out there, but that's about it. Nothing suggests that Tyrosh actively participated in any of the Blackfyre Rebellions.

More importantly, we know that the Targaryens princes Valarr and Daeron both married Kiera of Tyrosh, which most likely cut short any Blackfyre attempts to get the nobility of Tyrosh involved in the wars.

[Mithras]

The idea that Kevan was actually stabilizing the Realm is a common misconception. He stabilized the relationship between the Lannister, the Tyrells, and the Faith, but even if there was no Varys and no Aegon, Ser Kevan and 'King Tommen' would not be the last guys standing at the end of the series. Ser Kevan threatened Aegon, that's why he had to go. Not because he was tying the Realm back together.

How the series ends does not matter. At that time, when the winter officially arrived to a wartorn Realm that is tired of more wars, Kevan managed to bring Tyrells back to the game. The Lannister/Tyrell alliance was considered as the victor of Wot5K and with the winter, ironborn threat and the "demon-worshipping" Stannis in the North, both the people and the Lords would naturally follow the monarch in KL. This was stabilization and Varys destroyed it.

[Lord Varys]

That is not what I got from AFfC/ADwD. The regions that were not in open rebellion against the Iron Throne are plotting to oppose 'King Tommen', and Ser Kevan did not bring stability to anything. What Varys feared, is that he and the Tyrells may be strong enough to deal with Aegon, as he has landed nearby, but nothing suggests that Kevan would not be forced to war against the Ironborn, the Dornishmen, the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North in the coming years, considering what's going on beneath the blankets.

Not to mention Daenerys and the Others.

[Mithras]

Of course they would fight the Euronborn and Stannis if he survived that long. They would deal with this new pretender fAegon too. With the exception of fAegon, these two claimants (Euron and Stannis) are the agents of chaos in the eyes of people. So, fighting them is included in the attempts to stabilize the Realm.

[Lord Varys]

We have reason to believe that Roose and Littlefinger are hatching their own schemes (Roose wants to become King in the North, Littlefinger whatever he wants to do with Sansa/the Vale), Aegon and the Ironborn could independently put an end to the Western Alliance, if either Kevan or Mace is killed in battle, or the armies fighting against them are defeated.

The Riverlands are also not really pacified, if the hints towards the TWoW Prologue are any indication.

My point is that Kevan could have been able to stabilize the reign of King Tommen, but he did not really do that yet, nor is it evident in ADwD that Kevan would actually be the one to bring the war to the pretenders/rebels rather than the other way around.

Killing Kevan did not create more chaos, it just raised the chances that Varys' party would end up on top rather than the other way around. It is not that Kevan's rise to the Regency ended the war or made it unlikelier that there would be more war. All the threats were already in field, or are preparing to enter the field eventually. It was just that he could have held together the Western Alliance against Aegon. Killing him may actually shorten the war, if the Tyrells and the Lannisters are now not able to keep up a united front against Aegon.

[Veltigar]

One major hint for the Brightfyre theory is imo the name of Aerion's son. We have long theorized that Varys is Aerion's grandson. The fact that his father's name would be Maegor ties in nicely with Varys' intense knowlegde of the Red Keep. It was Maegor the Cruel who built the entire thing after all. Varys' ruthlessness with his little birds also seems to tie in with Maegor's desire to keep the secret passages secret.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

One major hint for the Brightfyre theory is imo the name of Aerion's son. We have long theorized that Varys is Aerion's grandson. The fact that his father's name would be Maegor ties in nicely with Varys' intense knowlegde of the Red Keep. It was Maegor the Cruel who built the entire thing after all. Varys' ruthlessness with his little birds also seems to tie in with Maegor's desire to keep the secret passages secret.

Nice catch.

Though im not completely convinced Varys comes from MAegor, the trueborn brightflame, instead of the bastard lines of Lys.

the second option explains VArys´s background better.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

The Tyroshi are also not really important as full-time, on-going Blackfyre supporters. Rohanne's family apparently allowed the Blackfyres to hang out there, but that's about it. Nothing suggests that Tyrosh actively participated in any of the Blackfyre Rebellions.

More importantly, we know that the Targaryens princes Valarr and Daeron both married Kiera of Tyrosh, which most likely cut short any Blackfyre attempts to get the nobility of Tyrosh involved in the wars.

true, but an invading force needs ships.

It has been said in the years after Daemon Blackfyre proved a traitor that his hatred of Daeron began to grow early. It was Aegon’s desire—not Daemon’s—that he be wed to Rohanne of Tyrosh. Instead, Daemon had developed a passion for Daeron’s sister, young Princess Daenerys. Only two years younger than Daemon, the princess supposedly loved the bastard prince in turn, if the singers can be believed, but neither Aegon IV nor Daeron II were willing to let such feelings rule in matters of state. Aegon saw more profit in a tie to Tyrosh, perhaps because its fleet would be of use if he made another attempt to conquer Dorne.

[Rhaegal Targaryen]

Nice catch.

Though im not completely convinced Varys comes from MAegor, the trueborn brightflame, instead of the bastard lines of Lys.

the second option explains VArys´s background better.

Me neither but i have noticed that Varys means heir in Persian so......

[Veltigar]

Nice catch.

Though im not completely convinced Varys comes from MAegor, the trueborn brightflame, instead of the bastard lines of Lys.

the second option explains VArys´s background better.

Since Aerion's bastards are only known from an SSM, I think the officially named heir of Aerion is a much likelier candidate. He's mentioned in the books and named in TWOIAF. And we don't know what happened to him. Another hint is that the name Maegor has such symbolic significance. It ties in nicely with Varys' profession in the books (knowledge of the Red Keep), his inability to get an heir (Maegor was infertile and Varys is of course a eunuch), Varys ruthlessness with his little birds (Maegor slaughtered all the builders of the Red Keep), Varys own hand in the demise of his kin (Maegor was of course a kinslayer) and Varys desire to claim the IT for his side of the family.

A descendant of a trueborn son also has more reason to plot revenge on the Targaryens who stole his heritage. Descendants of Maegor Brightflame are the more senior branch of House Targaryen through two lines (Aerion being Egg's older brother and his wife being the daughter of Rhaegel, the older brother of Maekar). We also don't know what happened to Maegor. He just vanishes after a while. Lys is still a likely destination for him, since his father had history there.

Me neither but i have noticed that Varys means heir in Persian so......

This would also fit better if Varys was the son of Maegor.