Robb's War

[24adrew]

Does anyone else believe Edmure lost the war for Robb?

If Tywin had gone West without Edmure slowing them down for Kings Landing riders and Robb retreated and bloodied them

A. Kings Landing would fall and the Freys would have to support Robb or be crushed in the middle of a North/ Riverland territory

B. Robb might not have married Talisia/Jeyne because he would have to leave or get caught by Tywin

[John Doe]

Robb lost the war for Robb. He should have told Edmure, the lord of Riverrun and lord paramount of the riverlands, his ally, about his plans. It was Robb's responsibility and his alone.

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

If Tywin had gone west, he may very well have trapped and annihalted Robb's army.

A. King's Landing might still fall. I don't know that the Tyrell's really needed Tywin's host to defeat Stannis, especially since so many of Stannis' troops defected at the sight of "Renly".

B. Maybe...but if he still got injured, then it would be even harder for him to evade Tywin's army while wounded.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I hate Edmure bashing. He did what any sane person would have done. As both the posters above said, Robb may have been destroyed if Tywin got threw, and Robb should have told Edmure his plan if he wanted Edmure to act contrary to standard military logic.

[The hairy bear]

Edmure saved Westeros.

If Edmure had not stopped Tywin, then he would not have been warned of Stannis attacking King's Landing. So Stannis would have stayed in King's Landing and could not have helped a the Wall. So Castle Black would have fallen and Jon would be dead (more dead, that is). Without the Watch, the Others would have descended freely towards the Seven Kingdoms.

[Barty]

Stan could have gone war either way, if the urgency was made apparent to him by Davos and Mel.

Tywin would have been stopped, the Lannister bastards removed from the line thus making Stannis king.

Stannis would have invaded the North while Robb was still in the south thus forcing a surrender from Robb who would have no where to go.

I think the Northern cause was doomed regardless. Unless Robb won back the north he was f'd

Although it would have helped to give Edmure a headsup on his plan to take Tywin.

I would have loved to see that - I'm guessing they'd fare even worse than Stannis currently is. Wont last a month in the North's winter.

[Barty]

His position is bad because of his lack of support.

Given the support of the Stormlands and Crownlands in full, possibly even the Reach, wealth, fully supplied army, provisions and basic supplies to combat the elements?

The North in winter is not the be all or end all.

Stannis is suffering because of a lack of resources. In this hypothetical he has those resources. Combine this to Stannis coming North with a massive host rather than a meager 1500 men. Having far more men than Robb (who is still in the south fighting the Lannisters/Ironborn at Moat Calin) and repelling the Ironborn invading the north.

How loyal would Robbs lords remain to his cause under such circumstances? There were already seome houses (Bolton, Frey, Dustin) who were pretty much ready to betray Robb.

This aside I personally would love to see how Robb fared without Brynden Tully, who was undoubtedly the reason for a lot of his success, yet massively uncredited. Or Grey Wind, who found the path into the Westerlands.

I'm not here to put Robb down, I do like Robb, but his cause was definitely doomed from the day he took up a crown.

Hard truths cut both ways

What resources are you talking about?? Winter clothing?? The NW gave that to Stannis. Food? he got that from Deepwood and the mountain clans. Having a small army was actually in his favour - add in 20k more southerners and the host would be dead within a month. The problem wasnt resources - the problem was that his army could not move. It was immobile - his supply lines were immobile as well meaning no further resources could reach him.

Massive host?? More like Massive sitting ducks - the Northerners could be outnumbered 10:1 and they'd win this and barely take any casualties in the process.

And btw you're seriously telling me that Stannis is going to leave Robb (or BlackFish if Robb goes North) in the Riverlands with nearly 20k men - leaving KL undefended and open to attack, while he goes to attack the North in winter with bannermen who switch sides the first chance they get (remember Renly's ghost)?? And according to you Stannis also magically gets the support of his oldest enemies - the Tyrells. Mace Tyrell would rather crown himself King than take Stannis as his liege lord and without the Tyrells Stannis has no supplies. KL was starving before the Tyrells came and will be starving as long as both the Riverlands and the Reach are closed off.

Not just this but supposedly Stannis still has his entire fleet - odd. I was under the assumption that it burned down on the Blackwater. And why may I ask is Robb still fighting the Lannisters? The Lannister claimants are dead - they are no longer fighting on behalf of the IT. Robb and Tywin no longer have a quarrel. Do you think Tywin is stupid enough to waste men fighting Robb without cause when he knows that Stannis will come for him next?

So to sum up: For your plan to even begin - Stannis needs to take KL without losing his fleet, magically get the support of the house which hates him most (after assassinating their King), leave KL as soon as he takes it for anybody else to attack (Tywin/Robb), hope that Tywin and Robb continue to fight when they no longer have any reason to and/or Robb's plan to go North with the help of the crannogmen doesnt work, No storms interrupt his invading fleet (during storm season) - all this for him to even land safely.

There's a reason the North has never fallen. The Andals with superior technology and numbers tried (by both land and sea) and failed - miserably.

PS: I too would have liked to see Robb without Brynden - though I'd bet he's still a military genius

[Talleyrand]

I'm strongly of the opinion that Stannis would have been beaten at KL even if Edmure had let Tywin pass. By the time Tywin meets up with the Tyrells they've already purged their army of Florents and other who might be loyal to Stannis, imprisoned his envoys, accepted Littlefingers deal and marched most of the way and begun gather/building barges for the trip.

I highly doubt they'd turn back and call it quits if Tywin doesn't show up as to me sending someone to find Tywin seems far more of an afterthought that some sort of lynchpin in their deal with Littlefinger. And so even without Tywin's men Stannis is still going to be hit in their rear by a larger force with many of his men switching sides. Only change this time being that Robb might now be stuck in the West facing a bigger army who might get reinforcements if he wants them

[joluoto2]

Robb couldn't defeat Tywin. Robb's whole get Tywin to the Westerlands strategy was about givin Stannis and Renly time to move on King's Landing. Yes, Edmure kind of screwed it up, maybe. Tywin could have heard about the possible Tyrell alliance and of Stannis moving on KL on his way anyways and turned around. Many things could have happened. The Tyrells might have come to the aid KL on their own, and probably still beaten Stannis, which could actually had made things worse for Robb if he's still in the Westerlands at that point, because Tywin can concentrate all his forces on him.

[Barty]

I'm strongly of the opinion that Stannis would have been beaten at KL even if Edmure had let Tywin pass. By the time Tywin meets up with the Tyrells they've already purged their army of Florents and other who might be loyal to Stannis, imprisoned his envoys, accepted Littlefingers deal and marched most of the way and begun gather/building barges for the trip.

I highly doubt they'd turn back and call it quits if Tywin doesn't show up as to me sending someone to find Tywin seems far more of an afterthought that some sort of lynchpin in their deal with Littlefinger. And so even without Tywin's men Stannis is still going to be hit in their rear by a larger force with many of his men switching sides. Only change this time being that Robb might now be stuck in the West facing a bigger army who might get reinforcements if he wants them

This is Mace Tyrell - a man neither brave nor bold and prone to sitting out conflicts until a clear victor emerges (like RR). Its quite possible (probable in fact) that had Tywin not appeared Tyrells would have done nothing or perhaps even would have joined Stannis.

Mace moving his army to KL is not evidence of anything.

[Barty]

Robb couldn't defeat Tywin. Robb's whole get Tywin to the Westerlands strategy was about givin Stannis and Renly time to move on King's Landing. Yes, Edmure kind of screwed it up, maybe. Tywin could have heard about the possible Tyrell alliance and of Stannis moving on KL on his way anyways and turned around. Many things could have happened. The Tyrells might have come to the aid KL on their own, and probably still beaten Stannis, which could actually had made things worse for Robb if he's still in the Westerlands at that point, because Tywin can concentrate all his forces on him.

Had Edmure allowed Tywin to pass two things could have happened

1. The Tyrells attack Stannis on their own (not really likely IMO since Mace is Mace) and then Robb's plan fails but Tywin is still f*cked. Robb can easily order Edmure and Roose (both together have an army north of 20k) to join forces and follow Tywin into the west and now Tywin is caught between 2 armies and thoroughly outnumbered. btw this is not Robb's plan - its just my opinion on how he could have gotten out of the west without any problems had KL not fallen.

2. The Tyrells dont attack and sit this conflict out. KL falls, Cersei, Joffrey and likely Tommen(I really doubt Boros Blount would have kept Tommen from a victorious Stannis) are dead. Now Robb's plan kicks in - He and Tywin agree to a peace (they really dont have a reason to fight anymore and now also have a common enemy). Robb withdraws to RR and then North to fight the IB, Stannis has only 20k men - not enough to start a campaign against the North + Riverlands. He and Tywin duke it out and if Stannis wins he gets crushed by Robb in the next battle.

[the conquering bastard 25]

What resources are you talking about?? Winter clothing?? The NW gave that to Stannis. Food? he got that from Deepwood and the mountain clans. Having a small army was actually in his favour - add in 20k more southerners and the host would be dead within a month. The problem wasnt resources - the problem was that his army could not move. It was immobile - his supply lines were immobile as well meaning no further resources could reach him.

Massive host?? More like Massive sitting ducks - the Northerners could be outnumbered 10:1 and they'd win this and barely take any casualties in the process.

And btw you're seriously telling me that Stannis is going to leave Robb (or BlackFish if Robb goes North) in the Riverlands with nearly 20k men - leaving KL undefended and open to attack, while he goes to attack the North in winter with bannermen who switch sides the first chance they get (remember Renly's ghost)?? And according to you Stannis also magically gets the support of his oldest enemies - the Tyrells. Mace Tyrell would rather crown himself King than take Stannis as his liege lord and without the Tyrells Stannis has no supplies. KL was starving before the Tyrells came and will be starving as long as both the Riverlands and the Reach are closed off.

Not just this but supposedly Stannis still has his entire fleet - odd. I was under the assumption that it burned down on the Blackwater. And why may I ask is Robb still fighting the Lannisters? The Lannister claimants are dead - they are no longer fighting on behalf of the IT. Robb and Tywin no longer have a quarrel. Do you think Tywin is stupid enough to waste men fighting Robb without cause when he knows that Stannis will come for him next?

So to sum up: For your plan to even begin - Stannis needs to take KL without losing his fleet, magically get the support of the house which hates him most (after assassinating their King), leave KL as soon as he takes it for anybody else to attack (Tywin/Robb), hope that Tywin and Robb continue to fight when they no longer have any reason to and/or Robb's plan to go North with the help of the crannogmen doesnt work, No storms interrupt his invading fleet (during storm season) - all this for him to even land safely.

There's a reason the North has never fallen. The Andals with superior technology and numbers tried (by both land and sea) and failed - miserably.

PS: I too would have liked to see Robb without Brynden - though I'd bet he's still a military genius

We don't agree often but everything you just said.

Stan in the north and Robb is still alive and no jon snow to keep his southron ignorance of the north from making monumental errors? Yeah the fuck right! stan wouldn't even make it a month.

Manderly would send out the word scorched earth policy, cut Stans supply lines and fires his ships, two weeks tops.

[Jankmaster]

Stannis' experience as a naval commander cannot be underestimated in any hypothetical scenario. This is the man who acomplished the Battle off Fair Isle and the invasion of Great Wykk.

Also, Edmure should have been told about the plan. If the plan/orders is not clear it is the fault of the Commander, if the orders are clear than it is the fault of the subordinate. That's the art of war and Robb didn't follow it. I believe also Stannis has support from the reach even without the Tyrells. Some Forosways (green ones I think) sided with Stannis even though Jana Tyrell, Mace's sister was the wife of their lord. Stannis is one of the best Commanders in Westeros at the time and more than a tactican he is a decent stratagsit.

One of the best essays on the topic

https://bryndenbfish.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/a-complete-analysis-of-stannis-baratheon-as-a-military-commander/

[Talleyrand]

This is Mace Tyrell - a man neither brave nor bold and prone to sitting out conflicts until a clear victor emerges (like RR).

You mean like how he was the first person to declare for a rebel king in the WOTFK?

Its quite possible (probable in fact) that had Tywin not appeared Tyrells would have done nothing or perhaps even would have joined Stannis.

Mace moving his army to KL is not evidence of anything.

Really? Killing Stannis loyalists, imprisoning his envoys and marching on him is not a sign that he might be going to attack him?

He's met with the Lannister envoy and made a deal when Stannis guys came a calling they locked them away these are not the actions of someone who's on edge of switching sides. Unless you think that the guy with the biggest army is for some reason pulling a Manderly against a guy who he's done plenty to piss off

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Had Edmure allowed Tywin to pass two things could have happened

1. The Tyrells attack Stannis on their own (not really likely IMO since Mace is Mace) and then Robb's plan fails but Tywin is still f*cked. Robb can easily order Edmure and Roose (both together have an army north of 20k) to join forces and follow Tywin into the west and now Tywin is caught between 2 armies and thoroughly outnumbered. btw this is not Robb's plan - its just my opinion on how he could have gotten out of the west without any problems had KL not fallen.

How exactly does Robb order Edmure and Roose to attack? He's in enemy territory in a ruinous castle that is easy to take. Either he runs and hopes that he's not outmaneuvered in unfamiliar terrain or he stays at the Crag and hope to hold out for a week or s it would take the forces to assemble in the Riverlands and march West.

And even in that scenario it is not a case of Tywin being 'f*cked' as he has the Rock to fall back on as well as possible reinforcements.

If what you had said was possible and meant defeat for Tywin then Robb would have implemented it as no Tywin means no Joffrey.

[joluoto2]

Had Edmure allowed Tywin to pass two things could have happened

1. The Tyrells attack Stannis on their own (not really likely IMO since Mace is Mace) and then Robb's plan fails but Tywin is still f*cked. Robb can easily order Edmure and Roose (both together have an army north of 20k) to join forces and follow Tywin into the west and now Tywin is caught between 2 armies and thoroughly outnumbered. btw this is not Robb's plan - its just my opinion on how he could have gotten out of the west without any problems had KL not fallen.

2. The Tyrells dont attack and sit this conflict out. KL falls, Cersei, Joffrey and likely Tommen(I really doubt Boros Blount would have kept Tommen from a victorious Stannis) are dead. Now Robb's plan kicks in - He and Tywin agree to a peace (they really dont have a reason to fight anymore and now also have a common enemy). Robb withdraws to RR and then North to fight the IB, Stannis has only 20k men - not enough to start a campaign against the North + Riverlands. He and Tywin duke it out and if Stannis wins he gets crushed by Robb in the next battle.

Littlefinger had already cemented the Tyrell alliance. The Tyrells would come with or without Tywin. Sure, Robb can hope to get Tywin encircled. I don't think it will work. As soon as the news that KL has fallen Robb's plan would fall apart. Roose would most likely not move on Robb's order. The Freys in Robb's army defect directly to Tywin instead of moving home to the Twins. With the Freys switching camp, Roose obviously not following orders and the Tyrells being a threat to the Riverlands Edmure would most likely not be able to move.

[the conquering bastard 25]

Littlefinger had already cemented the Tyrell alliance. The Tyrells would come with or without Tywin. Sure, Robb can hope to get Tywin encircled. I don't think it will work. As soon as the news that KL has fallen Robb's plan would fall apart. Roose would most likely not move on Robb's order. The Freys in Robb's army defect directly to Tywin instead of moving home to the Twins. With the Freys switching camp, Roose obviously not following orders and the Tyrells being a threat to the Riverlands Edmure would most likely not be able to move.

KL has fallen the Lannisters would be a done force with Marcella as the only remaining claim and she happens to be in Dorne.

Why would the Freys be defecting? Bolton turned hire cloak because after Robbs wedding and the Tyrell alliance Robbs was lost. Yet with Cersei and her brood done for the lion pretty much defeated at every turn by Robb why wouldn't Bolton follow Robb's orders?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

KL has fallen the Lannisters would be a done force with Marcella as the only remaining claim and she happens to be in Dorne.

Why would the Freys be defecting? Bolton turned hire cloak because after Robbs wedding and the Tyrell alliance Robbs was lost. Yet with Cersei and her brood done for the lion pretty much defeated at every turn by Robb why wouldn't Bolton follow Robb's orders?

Tommen was not in Kings Landing but hidden in Rosby.

And Tywin was not the deciding factor and the Battle of Blackwater but the 60k Tyrell troops who were already on their way to Kings Landing.

[the conquering bastard 25]

Tommem at Rosby and Stannis in the capital. Rosby fought for the crown and could use Tommens head to make their peace with Stannis. Which is likely as Stannis would want all Lannister claims, and does Tywin know that Tommen was at Rosby? No so that doesn't help.

[joluoto2]

KL has fallen the Lannisters would be a done force with Marcella as the only remaining claim and she happens to be in Dorne.

Why would the Freys be defecting? Bolton turned hire cloak because after Robbs wedding and the Tyrell alliance Robbs was lost. Yet with Cersei and her brood done for the lion pretty much defeated at every turn by Robb why wouldn't Bolton follow Robb's orders?

Umm, why would Cersei and her sons be dead? The only thing changing is that the Tyrells alone defeat Stannis at Blackwater instead of Tywin and the Tyrells. And that would set the wheels in motion.