Great Council of 129?

[Antler's Fury]

Had there been a Great Council to determine the succession following the death of Viserys I, who would have won? Though we don't know exactly how Great Councils work, it seems like all lords "great and small" have an equal vote, regardless of how powerful they are. As such, it seems to me that the Blacks would have won because even though they had a smaller army, they had a larger number of houses on their side. Thoughts?

[Paxter Goldwyne]

I think after the death of Viserys would be too late, both sides would already be crowning their candidates.

If it was held before his death it's harder to say. There are a lot of precedents for a male succession. Viserys Master of Laws favoured the male succession, presumably he could have argued for this at such a council and may have been able to win some lords over.

Would be interesting to see how Viserys would argue for choosing her over Aegon beyond saying "That's what I want".

Possibly Rhaenyra had a larger number of houses on her side because of the oaths sworn years before. If the subject of the succession actually became open to debate at a council then some of that support could drift away.

[Lord Varys]

I think Rhaenyra would have had a good chance to win, as the Realm was pretty much expecting that she would inherit, and most people would have made their peace with that. Aegon II and the Greens only got massive support because Otto and Alicent staged a coup at court and crowned Aegon before Rhaenyra and her loyalists could react (or even knew that Viserys had died).

The fact that Otto/Alicent staged a coup rather than trying to pass over Rhaenyra the same way Viserys' faction outmaneuvered Laenor in 101 AC suggests that they were not exactly sure that they could get through with that. And we later see that half the Reach and most of the Riverlords - regions the Greens originally thought would be theirs - declared for Rhaenyra, even after the coup. If Lords dared to defy their liege lords in this during the war, we should also expect that they would have done the same thing during a council.

If we imagine that it was an open Great Council, Rhaenyra would have had the chance to remind all the assembled Lords that they had already sworn an oath to her, and call out all the younger lordlings and knights what oath their fathers had sworn. A lot of Lords ended up declaring for Aegon II after he had been crowned, but if Rhaenyra reminded them whom they were supposed to follow, a lot of people would have sided with her rather than with the Greens. Not to mention that the Blacks would have had the opportunity to show off all the dragons they controlled to the whole Realm. And Daemon most certainly would have reminded them what would happen if they ended up choosing the wrong claimant...

Rhaenyra would also have had more children to offer to powerful lords in marriage - Jace/Baela and Luke/Rhaena were betrothed, but betrothals could be broken. Even if they did not want to do this, Joff, Aegon the Younger, and Viserys were still free to marry pretty much anyone. Alicent had only Aemond, Daeron, and Aegon's children (of which only Jaehaerys would have been a working match, considering the fact that Maelor was still very young, and Jaehaera a simpleton).

[Maester Pedant]

Had there been a Great Council to determine the succession following the death of Viserys I, who would have won? Though we don't know exactly how Great Councils work, it seems like all lords "great and small" have an equal vote, regardless of how powerful they are. As such, it seems to me that the Blacks would have won because even though they had a smaller army, they had a larger number of houses on their side. Thoughts?

I'm not sure they all have an equal vote. Even if that were to be true in theory, I doubt that is how things would work out in practice. It's very likely that, say, the lords of the Stormlands would vote in whoever their liege lord chose. So instead of trying to convince many smaller lords, it would make sense for a claimant to try to gain the support of the most powerful ones.

That being said, what do we know about what Lords supported each of the claimants?

[Lord Varys]

TPatQ suggested that there was a secret vote. The whole 20:1 for Viserys was a rumor, as the maester did never give the official count, but we know that certain individual lords spoke for the various claimants, and championed their causes, and those individuals were known. Whether their vassals did actually back the claimant their liege lord championed is not known. I'm inclined to doubt it, as Laenor would have had gotten more votes, I think, if all the Lords of the Stormlands, Crownlands, and the North had voted for him.

In 101 the Lannisters, Tullys, and the Reach (Tyrells and Hightowers I imagine, as Otto would not have remained Hand had he supported Laenor) seemed to have championed Viserys' cause. Matthos Tyrell and Lyman Lannister also brought the most bannermen to Harrenhal.

But considering that many Reach lords later supported Rhaenyra, it would make sense to assume that those guys backed Laenor back then (whereas perhaps many Stormlords ended up voting for Viserys, knowing that Lord Boremund would never find out).

[Antler's Fury]

I'm not sure they all have an equal vote. Even if that were to be true in theory, I doubt that is how things would work out in practice. It's very likely that, say, the lords of the Stormlands would vote in whoever their liege lord chose. So instead of trying to convince many smaller lords, it would make sense for a claimant to try to gain the support of the most powerful ones.

That being said, what do we know about what Lords supported each of the claimants?

It doesn't directly say that all lords have an equal say, but they must at least theoretically have some kind of vote independent from their lords paramount, or else there would be no point in their even attending the council. Indeed, if lesser lords voting against their LPs were not a serious possibility, the greens would never have pointed out that, say, the Dustins and Manderlys had voted alongside the Starks, as that would have been an inevitability based on the Stark's own vote. We also know that the Lannisters voted for Viserys, and the Baratheons for Laenor, but nothing about their bannermen. Houses Bar Emmon, Celtigar, and Velaryon all backed Laenor and not Viserys even though Jaehaerys Targaryen was king, but the very fact that Jaehaerys himself allowed the GC to take place, and the fact that he was in poor health, suggests that he would hardly pressure lords into voting "correctly." Most importantly, we know that the Blackwoods voted for Laenor even though the Tullys backed Viserys, which suggests that lesser houses can, and probably did, disagree with their LPs on this issue.

[Barty]

I'm inclined to believe Aegon would have won. Its one thing ordering your bannermen to pledge their fealty to Rhaenyra, its another to give them the choice between a male and female heir.

As is Alicent managed to get the support of the Lannisters, Baratheons and much of the reach. Not to mention Old lord Tully.

[Good King Daemon]

Aegon would have won. In tPATQ after Rhaenyra took King's Landing and Alicent tried to convince her to call a Great Council, didn't Rhaenyra reject it and say something like "we know what the council who the council would choose". Don't have my book handy to quote.

[Jaak]

The whole 20:1 for Viserys was a rumor, as the maester did never give the official count,

Yandel says that the number has never been published. Gyldayn quotes 20:1 as a fact without comment.

Does Yandel have Gyldayn´s book, and sources, available to consult?

[Lord Varys]

Well, Lord Tully would not have been at the Great Council. He was too sick...

Yes, Alicent suggests a Great Council to Rhaenyra - after the latter has pretty much won the war for the time being, and has no reason to jump on the idea - and Rhaenyra gives the impression Aegon would most likely win.

But this conversation takes place in 130 AC, after the war has already waged for a year, and Aegon II was already crowned and anointed - before Rhaenyra herself even learned that her father had died. There would be little reason to assume that the Lords would ignore that fact, or not be tricked by the common perception that Rhaenyra was the usurper and Aegon II the rightful king, as he succeeded his father, whereas Rhaenyra had to declared war on him and take KL by force.

A Great Council in 129 AC would have been remarkably different, as Viserys' decree and last will would not yet been invalidated by the coronation of Aegon II. Rhaenyra would have made her case as the Heir Apparent and Princess of Dragonstone, whereas Aegon the Elder would have first declare his claim publicly, with his only advantage being the fact that he was male. After all, he was not groomed to rule, nor was he exceptional in any way I'm aware of. Yes, he had a dragon, but so did Rhaenyra.

If I had to guess, Rhaenyra would most likely have had the people who also declared for her during the Dance, plus the Stormlords as, without the Aemond-Vhagar-maester incident, Lord Borros most likely would have continued the policy of his father.

Due to Viserys being married to Aemma Arryn, Lord Protector Yorbert Royce (and the whole Vale) most likely supported Viserys' claim in 101, but this support would have been Rhaenyra's in 129.

But anyway, I'm pretty sure a Great Council in 129 AC would only have postponed a war of succession for a short time, as it is very likely that the losing claimant would not have backed down, if we even assume that a decision could have been made. 51-55% for one claimant would not have been a victory, but rather an invitation for the losing claimant to rebel. The Great Council in 101 only diffused the tensions because the Velaryons would have realized that they could not rally enough support behind them to seat Laenor on the Iron Throne, even if they rebelled upon Jaehaerys' death.

Jaak,

If I remember correctly TPatQ says that no official count was ever given, but the rumor/knowledge goes that it was 20:1 for Viserys. The exact numbers (and who voted for whom) is unknown. When Otto etc. look up the records, they only mention the lords and knights speaking for the various claimants, and consider all the people who championed Laenor's cause as possible enemies.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yandel says that the number has never been published. Gyldayn quotes 20:1 as a fact without comment.

Does Yandel have Gyldayn´s book, and sources, available to consult?

Seeing as how Yandel quotes Gyldayn, I'd say he has Gyldayns book, yeah. ;)

[Jaak]

Seeing as how Yandel quotes Gyldayn, I'd say he has Gyldayns book, yeah. ;)

Which book, though?

As Archmaester Gyldayn notes in his fragmentary history, there is no record that Vermax ever laid so much as a single egg, suggesting the dragon was male.

Which "fragmentary history"? We don´t read Gyldayn noting it in either Princess and Queen or Rogue Prince that we have.

[RumHam]

Which book, though?

Which "fragmentary history"? We don´t read Gyldayn noting it in either Princess and Queen or Rogue Prince that we have.

Those novellas were heavily edited to fit in the collections. It's probably mentioned in the full version that will one day be part of Fire & Blood.

[The hairy bear]

TPatQ states, as a fact, that "the lords assembled favored the male claimant over the female 20 to 1". In the World Book it's given as a rumor: "The tide was against them, and though the maesters who counted the results never gave numbers, it was rumored that the Great Council had voted twenty to one in favor of Prince Viserys."

My personal theory is that Jaehaerys had his maesters manipulate the results. It's possible that Viserys would have won anyway, but he made sure that the Velaryion side of the family was utterly defeated so that the idea of a civil war didn't cross anyone's mind (as Varys says upthread, if the results are 45-55 the loser will always be a menace for stability.) But even if Viserys received most of the support, it's hard to believe that a candidate with the open support of Lord Baratheon, Lord Stark, Lord Manderly, Lord Dustin, Lord Blackwood, Lord Velaryon, Lord Bar Emmon and Lord Celtigar is only capable of mustering a 5% of the votes.

[Jaak]

Those novellas were heavily edited to fit in the collections. It's probably mentioned in the full version that will one day be part of Fire & Blood.

But Yandel calls his book "fragmentary".

[Lord Varys]

Jaak,

'Fire and Blood' (Gyldayn's history) is still fragmentary, as George has only written a Targaryen history from his POV from the Conquest to the end of the Regency. The history from Aegon III up to Aegon V are as of yet unwritten, and Yandel seems to acknowledge that point, although in Westeros he has not yet 'recovered' all of Gyldayn's work.

Should 'Fire and Blood' ever be published I expect that somebody (Yandel, as editor?) should add a much more detailed account on the reigns of Jaehaerys II and Aerys II to match the lengthy accounts from Gyldayn's POV. But what could this book make really great is if the editor completes some decades after the conclusion of the series, and gives us a rough overview about the reign of the monarch who ends up on the Iron Throne in the end, and tells us what all the children did when they were, like, twenty...

THB,

not sure if Jaehaerys I would have his maesters manipulate stuff. I rather suspect Ser Otto did that, to ensure that Viserys got chosen (that could explain why Viserys kept him as Hand). In fact, I've tossed around the idea that Jaehaerys may have wavered in the end, after Alysanne's and Baelon's death whether he should not honor Alysanne's wish and name Rhaenys/Laenor his successor, and the whole 'nurse/lover Alicent' thing was a way to prevent that...

[joluoto2]

I don't see the Great Council going against an already established tradition. Aegon II would have won. But at this point even if there had been a Great Council the losing side would not accept the decision.