Heresy 144 the Christmas edition

[Black Crow]

Welcome to the latest edition of Heresy, the thread cycle that takes a sideways and sometimes quirky look at the Song of Ice and Fire.

So what’s it about and why has it been running successfully for so long?

The short answer that it is a free-flowing discussion largely concerned with the Wall and the Heart of Darkness beyond, but also looking at it holistically and in the context of what else is happening in Martin’s world. The Heresy itself comes from the conviction that the Others are not the ultimate enemy and nor is it true that it only awaits the unmasking of Jon Snow as Azor Ahai the rightful heir to the Iron Throne before the story reaches a triumphant conclusion in a great battle on the Trident pitting Dany’s amazing dragons against the icy hordes.

Instead, [and as usual I speak generally because beyond that point there is no Heretic creed as such] there is a feeling that Craster’s sons do not represent an evil empire of the snows, an icy version of a Dothraki khalasar about to embark on the last hurrah of the blue-eyed horde, but rather that they may just be the servants or janissaries of the real enemy, who may be much closer to hand and already engaged in a hidden struggle for Westeros.

If new to Heresy you may also want to refer to to Wolfmaid's essential guide to Heresy: http://asoiaf.wester...uide-to-heresy/, which provides annotated links to all the previous editions of Heresy, latterly identified by topic.

Don’t be intimidated by the size and scope of Heresy, or by some of the ideas we’ve discussed over the years. We’re very good at talking in circles and we don’t mind going over old ground again, especially with a fresh pair of eyes, so just ask, but be patient and observe the local house rules that the debate be conducted by reference to the text, with respect for the ideas of others, and above all with great good humour.

Oh, and don’t forget Snowfyre’s health warning:

WARNING: Mental exercise is essential for a healthy life. But if you do not already exercise your mind, you should seek the advice of your doctor prior to beginning this or any other mental activity. Not all thought exercises are suitable for everyone, and any use of your imagination may result in injury to preconceived worldviews. Consult with your doctor before embarking on theories with The Snowfyre Chorus or other self-acknowledged Heretics. If you experience pain or discomfort during consideration of any theory, stop immediately and consult your doctor. The creators, producers, participants and distributors of Heresy-related theories cannot guarantee that component ideas are proper for every individual, or "safe" for his or her preconceived narrative expectations.

[Armstark]

Despite Ned's confidence that the Dothraki would never be able to cross the Narrow Sea, the prospect clearly had Robert [i like fighting] Baratheon worried - and Varys no doubt whispering in his ear wouldn't have helped. With Trouserless Bob fixated on the Golden Horde its going to be a whole lot easier to organise the real invasion and lets face it, despite Danaerys going native and conquering everything in sight out east, the plain is working. Bob is dead, the realm is in chaos and Aegon has landed not as an invader but a saviour.

The plan is not working at all. Bob being dead and the realm being in chaos is no consequence of the Dothraki threat. It seems to me that Varys' whole plan with the Dothraki to create chaos is much too convoluted. Why go trough all the trouble trying to bring the Dothraki to cross the poison water when the same result can be achieved with one dagger and a lie?

I think the only reason for the Dothraki marriage was to hatch dragons..

[Black Crow]

Ah, I don't think that the Dothraki [or Danaerys for that matter] were ever intended to come to Westeros, but instead were intended to be the focus of attention, a diversion - just as the blue-eyed lot appear to be.

[aDanceWithFlagons]

If so then Illyrio's red priest attending the wedding could be the one to see the future of Dany and her eggs. Which makes a certain sense once we hear what Benerro has to say about Dany in adwd. But does this mean Illyrio's plans have a mystical side that may not coincide with Varys'? To live beyond the mortal life span in a never-ending Summer.

Or not.

[Matthew.]

With Dany and the Dothraki, I think it's more likely a case of players underestimating their pawns; Varys and Illyrio believe Dany will always remain the pliant young princess she appears to be, and write the Dothraki off as savages that aspire to nothing greater than their next battle. If things had gone according to plan, they probably expected Dany (who has been fed a very idealized version of Aerys and Rhaegar) would be more than happy to stand aside for Rhaegar's son, and that Viserys would talk himself into an early grave. I really don't think Varys and Illyrio were counting on dragons hatching, nor that Dany would want to put herself on the Iron Throne.

I favor this view because I think it's a theme that's going to be echoed repeatedly in the latter books with the Stark kids; we see this trend of multiple factions laying claim to their own Stark 'pawn' that they hope to mold, and I think across the board they're all underestimating what they have in the Starks.

[SerWalterPuffsAlot]

A lil off topic last Heresy was winter solstice wasn't GRRM supposed to give us a "present" or something.

[Matthew.]

A lil off topic last Heresy was winter solstice wasn't GRRM supposed to give us a "present" or something.

That was a misunderstanding, based on some stupid bullshit that GRRM's social media team was doing on Twitter for the "12 Days of Westeros."

[MaesterSam]

Death makes way for the new.

A funny thing has occured to me and its something i brought up before concerning the incompleteness of prophetic dreams.Run with this here a bit.Lyanna gets a glimpse by some means and she sees Jon in the midst of wws and wights,looking like if he's in command.There is no context for her besides that glimpse and then its gone.There is no why and sometimes it takes the why to place an action into context.

:agree: She very well may have seen something and taken it out of context.

Just for the record, I am not fully sold on the idea of Lyanna asking Ned to kill Jon- just trying to come up with alternative explanations to the standard assumptions of what happened.

No, I really don't go with the Jon as sacrifice thing at all. Its certainly not the kind of nonsense the King's Guard would get involved with and there's no tradition of it - Mel is still some years away. Its far more likely that the promise is to protect Jon.

As to the naming of Jon we really don't know. A lot of time and imagination has been spent in another place trying to guess his "Targaryen" name - I believe Aemon may have come out on top, but I think that in the end Ned simply found himself in possession of a child that wasn't his and so named him after his old foster father and mentor, reserving the Stark house names for his own sons.

I am not sure about him being a sacrifice either, but could see him needing to die (or be shipped overseas, or to Asshai??) for some reason, i.e. if he sticks around this will be bad for Westeros.

I completely agree that the more likely explanation is that she wanted Ned to protect Jon. This is why it is the commonly accepted assumption across the board. I was only trying to come up with alternative options that might explain why Lyanna had to beg and plead with Ned, and why he felt like he broke the promise.

"Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you. Remember that, Sansa, when you come to play the game."

Forget BR. Littlefinger was coaching Rhaegar! That's why nothing he ever did made any sense. And how he got Lyanna to run off with him, as we know how good LF is at manipulating Starks. Mystery solved. :lol:

[wolfmaid7]

Ah, I don't think that the Dothraki [or Danaerys for that matter] were ever intended to come to Westeros, but instead were intended to be the focus of attention, a diversion - just as the blue-eyed lot appear to be.

I agree on the point that Dany was not intended to come West,but i think she wasn't just a diversion either. I think she is a bigger tool than just a diversion. She is being weilded strategically.

If so then Illyrio's red priest attending the wedding could be the one to see the future of Dany and her eggs. Which makes a certain sense once we hear what Benerro has to say about Dany in adwd. But does this mean Illyrio's plans have a mystical side that may not coincide with Varys'? To live beyond the mortal life span in a never-ending Summer.

Or not.

That is a good question and a possibility.

With Dany and the Dothraki, I think it's more likely a case of players underestimating their pawns; Varys and Illyrio believe Dany will always remain the pliant young princess she appears to be, and write the Dothraki off as savages that aspire to nothing greater than their next battle. If things had gone according to plan, they probably expected Dany (who has been fed a very idealized version of Aerys and Rhaegar) would be more than happy to stand aside for Rhaegar's son, and that Viserys would talk himself into an early grave. I really don't think Varys and Illyrio were counting on dragons hatching, nor that Dany would want to put herself on the Iron Throne.

I favor this view because I think it's a theme that's going to be echoed repeatedly in the latter books with the Stark kids; we see this trend of multiple factions laying claim to their own Stark 'pawn' that they hope to mold, and I think across the board they're all underestimating what they have in the Starks.

With Dany i think its a matter of too many players over a pawn,the pawn being her ofcourse.Even if we don't consider Varys and illyrio's mechanisms we have Quaithe who i think represents something else entirley and she may heed her and lets not forget Tyrion may soon come into play with her and he represents his own agenda.Is she as pliable as Ageon or will Quaithe's urging to claim herself come through?

[MaesterSam]

Also wanted to answer this one from Eira:

Here's a thought. Could blood raven have influenced rhaegar? He seems fond of sending visions.

I think it's entirely possible. After all, BR has been in that cave for what, 50 years now? He had to keep himself entertained somehow...

We know Rhaegar believed in dreams and prophecies. Which would certainly make him susceptible to this type of manipulation. Along the same lines, another influence on him could have been the woods witch who first gave him the idea of being the PtwP. Who may or may not also be the Ghost of High Heart, who was also present at Summerhall for Rhaegar's birth (and who is responsible for the marriage of Aerys and Rhaella, producing Rhaegar in the first place).

[Black Crow]

With Dany and the Dothraki, I think it's more likely a case of players underestimating their pawns; Varys and Illyrio believe Dany will always remain the pliant young princess she appears to be, and write the Dothraki off as savages that aspire to nothing greater than their next battle. If things had gone according to plan, they probably expected Dany (who has been fed a very idealized version of Aerys and Rhaegar) would be more than happy to stand aside for Rhaegar's son, and that Viserys would talk himself into an early grave. I really don't think Varys and Illyrio were counting on dragons hatching, nor that Dany would want to put herself on the Iron Throne.

I favor this view because I think it's a theme that's going to be echoed repeatedly in the latter books with the Stark kids; we see this trend of multiple factions laying claim to their own Stark 'pawn' that they hope to mold, and I think across the board they're all underestimating what they have in the Starks.

I think that's a fair analysis. As I remarked in the context of a different question this is, at the end of the day, a story of unforeseen consequences.

[Armstark]

Ah, I don't think that the Dothraki [or Danaerys for that matter] were ever intended to come to Westeros, but instead were intended to be the focus of attention, a diversion - just as the blue-eyed lot appear to be.

A distraction for whom?

If so then Illyrio's red priest attending the wedding could be the one to see the future of Dany and her eggs. Which makes a certain sense once we hear what Benerro has to say about Dany in adwd. But does this mean Illyrio's plans have a mystical side that may not coincide with Varys'? To live beyond the mortal life span in a never-ending Summer.

Or not.

I think Varys and Illyrion knew Daenerys would hatch the dragons because they solved the riddle of the PTWP prophecy. We know that a lot of characters believed the PTWP can/must be bred somehow.Turns out it was the union of Stallion and Dragon that brought back the dragons. (If Daenerys is necessarily the PTWP then is another question)

As to their magical motivation I am not certain - could be anything from just wanting dragons for warfare to ushering in the endless summer.

With Dany and the Dothraki, I think it's more likely a case of players underestimating their pawns; Varys and Illyrio believe Dany will always remain the pliant young princess she appears to be, and write the Dothraki off as savages that aspire to nothing greater than their next battle. If things had gone according to plan, they probably expected Dany (who has been fed a very idealized version of Aerys and Rhaegar) would be more than happy to stand aside for Rhaegar's son, and that Viserys would talk himself into an early grave. I really don't think Varys and Illyrio were counting on dragons hatching, nor that Dany would want to put herself on the Iron Throne.

I favor this view because I think it's a theme that's going to be echoed repeatedly in the latter books with the Stark kids; we see this trend of multiple factions laying claim to their own Stark 'pawn' that they hope to mold, and I think across the board they're all underestimating what they have in the Starks.

In the game of thrones, even the humblest pieces can have wills of their own. Sometimes they refuse to make the moves you’ve planned for them. Mark that well, Alayne. It’s a lesson that Cersei Lannister still has yet to learn.

Varys knows his craft though.

[wolfmaid7]

:agree: She very well may have seen something and taken it out of context.

Just for the record, I am not fully sold on the idea of Lyanna asking Ned to kill Jon- just trying to come up with alternative explanations to the standard assumptions of what happened.

I am not sure about him being a sacrifice either, but could see him needing to die (or be shipped overseas, or to Asshai??) for some reason, i.e. if he sticks around this will be bad for Westeros.

I completely agree that the more likely explanation is that she wanted Ned to protect Jon. This is why it is the commonly accepted assumption across the board. I was only trying to come up with alternative options that might explain why Lyanna had to beg and plead with Ned, and why he felt like he broke the promise.

Forget BR. Littlefinger was coaching Rhaegar! That's why nothing he ever did made any sense. And how he got Lyanna to run off with him, as we know how good LF is at manipulating Starks. Mystery solved. :lol:

I agree on the Lya asking Ned to kill Jon, its an alternative that i will explore futher just as a possibility.I can't proove Rheagar told her or she saw somthing that would make her pull a Medea through Ned so that's loose speculation.

There are things that are a bit iffy in Ned's behavior and even Lya when she was dying that could be seen another way and it would work as well as prevailing ideas. Bran's dream about Ned and what he said is one of those little red flags that makes one go hmmm.

"I dreamed about the crow again last night. The one with three eyes. He flew into my bedchamber and told me to come with him, so I did. We went down to the crypts. Father was there, and we talked. He was sad."

"And why was that?" Luwin peered through his tube.

"It was something to do about Jon, I think." The dream had been deeply disturbing, more so than any of the other crow dreams.

Again Bran has had some pretty intense Crow dreams to hear him tell it and i can't see finding out your brother isn't really your brother as the kind of thing that merits that.

I'm not dismissing Jon as a sacrifice either i think that is was a must for Jon to go to the next level. In a sense it has happened.He was destined to recieve a mortal wound per the Holly King myth; the how is neither here nor there just that he did was all that mattered.

Bran as Oak king/summer had his,it is now Jon's turn so that he could recieve his wings of which according to the Crow there are many kinds.

"You have wings" Bran pointed out.

Maybe you do too.

Bran felt along his shoulders groping for feathers .There are different kinds of wings,the crow said.

[Black Crow]

I completely agree that the more likely explanation is that she wanted Ned to protect Jon. This is why it is the commonly accepted assumption across the board. I was only trying to come up with alternative options that might explain why Lyanna had to beg and plead with Ned, and why he felt like he broke the promise.

I think that in the context Lyanna probably begged Ned to look after and protect Jon - and also to tell him who his mother [and perhaps his father] was*. Instead, as he lies in the black cells he has to reflect that he cut Jon loose in letting him go to the Wall and he never did tell him who his mother was

* or..."Promise me Ned, promise me that bastard Rhaegar died screaming"

[Black Crow]

A distraction for whom?

A distraction from Aegon and the Golden Company, who represent the real invasion.

[Urrax2]

That was a misunderstanding, based on some stupid bullshit that GRRM's social media team was doing on Twitter for the "12 Days of Westeros."

Yeah, GRRM himself made that explicitly clear on his own not-a-blog.

[superunknown5]

I have to confess, of all the characters whose motivations I don't fully understand, Varys is the one I find most intriguing.

"Yet I still dream of that night, my lord. Not of the sorceror, nor of his blade, nor even the way my manhood shriveled as it burned. I dream of the voice. The voice from the flames. Was it a god, a demon, some conjurer's trick? I could not tell you, and I know all the tricks. All I can say for a certainty is that he called it, and it answered, and since that day I have hated magic and all those who practice it. - Tyrion, ACoK

Methinks the eunuch doth protest too much.

He's such a slimy, duplicitous bastard. I'm disinclined to take him at his word. If he truly despises magic, why would he ally himself with the Targaryens? They are STEEPED in arcane tradition. They're dragonriding dragonseeds, with magical dragon blood and dragon dreams and obsidian candles. They come from Valyria, an empire BUILT on magic, the forging of Valyrian steel, the Valyrian roads, Valyrian architecture, etc. Maybe it's a "keep your friends close, and your enemies closer" situation.

I think he is either lying, in which case he may himself have grand arcane ambitions.

Or he's telling the truth, in which case why would he hitch his wagon to Aegon Targaryen/ Blackfyre? I think he's more likely to either use Aegon to sweep out the current riff-raff from the iron throne, and and then abandon and betray his magical ass as soon as is convenient. Or maybe Aegon is a total fraud, some tow-headed Valyrian orphan and he had absolutely no intention of restoring the REAL dragonseeds to power. Either way, its obvious he's simply using him to further his own ends. Maybe he's even in league with the Citadel in desiring to vanquish magic from the face of the earth (if he's telling the truth).

[Black Crow]

I have to confess, of all the characters whose motivations I don't fully understand, Varys is the one I find most intriguing.

Oh indeed. Nothing is quite as it seems in Westeros and that is particularly true of Varys. We have serious considered of late whether he is a faceless man. He is not merely a "master of disguise" but becomes the other party.

In particular there's a very strong suspicion that he aint a eunuch. As a eunuch he is despised and therefore although feared as the master of whispers, underestimated, and yet in the end as he speaks to the dying Ser Kevan with no need for concealment or dissimulation, his voice deepens. I reckon myself that if he does have a true face it is Rugen's with the stubble and that the perfumes worn by Varys are just one more disguise.

The question then is that if we do separate Rugen from his disguise as Varys the Spider, who is he and what is he really up to, and there I'd suspect it goes way beyond putting Aegon on the throne.

[MaesterSam]

I think that in the context Lyanna probably begged Ned to look after and protect Jon - and also to tell him who his mother [and perhaps his father] was*. Instead, as he lies in the black cells he has to reflect that he cut Jon loose in letting him go to the Wall and he never did tell him who his mother was

* or..."Promise me Ned, promise me that bastard Rhaegar died screaming"

Didn't he give Varys a letter to send to Jon before he died? Presumably, this will tell him some things.

The bigger question is- why the secrecy? Yes Robert would have killed Rhaegar's child if he knew, but why would Catelyn, for example, give away this secret? Telling her would have repaired the one problem in their relationship, and taken away any reason she had to hate Jon. And why not tell Jon?? He would hardly give himself away, knowing what happened to Rhaegar's other children.

The details are fuzzy, but I am leaning more and more in the direction of Jon having a very dark future, and Lyanna being aware of this in the end.

Maybe the father was someone unspeakably terrible - like BR! "Ned, a corpse came out of a tree and raped me!" "Promise me you'll never let this child go anywhere near the North, promise me Ned!" (I am not seriously suggesting BR but something along those lines. A father so terrible Ned could never tell Jon)

[superunknown5]

Oh indeed. Nothing is quite as it seems in Westeros and that is particularly true of Varys. We have serious considered of late whether he is a faceless man. He is not merely a "master of disguise" but becomes the other party.

In particular there's a very strong suspicion that he aint a eunuch. As a eunuch he is despised and therefore although feared as the master of whispers, underestimated, and yet in the end as he speaks to the dying Ser Kevan with no need for concealment or dissimulation, his voice deepens. I reckon myself that if he does have a true face it is Rugen's with the stubble and that the perfumes worn by Varys are just one more disguise.

The question then is that if we do separate Rugen from his disguise as Varys the Spider, who is he and what is he really up to, and there I'd suspect it goes way beyond putting Aegon on the throne.

Him being a FM seems likely, agreed. Is he working for their agenda though? Is it possible he's rogue like Mel?

I guess that just leaves the question, assuming their agendas in fact do align and go far beyond the game of thrones into the other, magical conflict, what do the faceless men want? To eradicate magic? To use it? To balance it? Or something else altogether...

They celebrate death as a gift. Is it a gift they seek to give to all, eventually? Crackpot, I know but that's all I've got.