The Curious Case of the Dragon Prince and the Winter Rose Contd.

[PrettyPig]

I'd be interested in this theory. While it might not "matter," I think it's interesting and could tell us a lot about both Rhaegar and Lyanna's motivations.

Dunno about motivation, really - as I mentioned, I think this acts as a literary retcon mechanism more than anything. One of the hot questions in the RLJ/TOJ argument is "how the heck did they make it from the Riverlands to the Dornish mountains in the middle of a war without being noticed?" and in my opinion this theory could be a way for The George to set up that scenario.

The question of how Rhaegar got her there (if he did) without any public knowledge of his location getting out -- a process that would have taken months, and at a time when his disappearance was quite a big deal -- is not one I can answer to my own satisfaction at all.

It seems to me a major unsolved issue for any theory of Jon's parents, whether RLJ or not. And it is the kind of detail that I think GRRM would have handled; I have a lot of respect for him in this department.

Here are my thoughts - it's the "Fisherman's Daughter Transport System." This could be total shite, but I think it is plausible if you put aside some of the common assumptions from the RLJ echo chamber.

We have the brief tale in Dance of the Fisherman's Daughter, told to Davos by Godric Borrell, Lord of Sweetsister, after Davos is captured in the Belly of the Whale trying to escape the island after washing ashore in a storm.

"Ned Stark was here?"

"At the dawn of Robert's Rebellion. The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance. Gulltown stayed loyal to the throne, though. To get home and call his banners, Stark had to cross the mountains to the Fingers and find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite. A storm caught them on the way, The fisherman drowned, but his daughter got Stark to the Sisters before the boat went down. They say he left her with a bag of silver and a bastard in her belly. Jon Snow, she named him, after Arryn."

There are some important points to note here. First, both Borrell lords, father and son, were present for this encounter - the current Lord Borrell witnessed Ned's visit personally. This is verification that Ned Stark was physically at the Sisters, and he had a woman with him. Second, something led the Borrells to believe that they were intimate - such as a particular closeness, or sharing a room at the inn...an intimacy that would lead to 'a bastard in her belly.' Third, we have confirmation that the fisherman's existence cannot be verified, because he drowned before the daughter got them to shore - the Borrells are told that the fisherman existed, but they did not see him. They only see the daughter.

Now, let's return to some notes on the Sisters from the same chapter.

Borrell: "Most knights who land upon my shores seek me in my hall, not in the Belly of the Whale. A vile smuggler's den, that place."

Davos: There was nothing sweet about Sisterton, though. It was a vile town, a sty, small and mean and rank with the odors of pig shit and rotting fish. Davos remembered it well from his smuggling days. The Three Sisters had been a favorite haunt of smugglers for hundreds of years, and a pirate's nest before that. [...] The Three Sisters were fickle bitches, loyal only to themselves. Supposedly they were sworn to the Arryns of the Vale, but the Eyrie's grasp upon the islands was tenuous at best.

Borrell: "These kings [of the 7 Kingdoms] never bother with the Sisters. Why should they? We are small and poor."

The takeaway here is that the Three Sisters are an isolated unit operating as a smugglers' haven, has no fealty to the Starks/the North/anyone in particular, and are not widely involved/included in the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms. The Borrell lords (then and now) would know the high lords of the area such as Stark and Manderly, but the likelihood of them knowing/recognizing vassals or family members would be small.

There are other numerous mentions in the chapter of the Sisters' ideal location in the Bite, and its proximity to the major port of White Harbor and to the narrow sea via a sail around the Fingers. And about White Harbor, we know this from Davos: If Winterfell was the heart of the north, White Harbor was its mouth. A fiercely loyal mouth at that, and a prominent port for all walks of trade in from/out to all walks of Planetos.

So the situation is that near the start of the Rebellion, after Lyanna has gone missing/after the StarkBQin KL/after Jon Arryn has called his banners but before Ned gets to Winterfell to call his own, we have Ned Stark (presumably en route to White Harbor) landing in a reclusive area known to be a smugglers' cove with a mystery woman that somehow is assumed to have borne Ned's bastard son later. Keep in mind that Ned - despite not being married to Cat at this point - is still not a man known to take his pleasures, but again there had to be some degree of affection shown between them for Godric to correlate Fisherman's Daughter / Jon Snow.)

Let's look at this a moment. Ned "left her with a bastard in her belly", meaning then that the fisherman's daughter was not visibly pregnant on Sweetsister. Now as I'm sure we are all aware, not visibly pregnant =/= not pregnant. A woman can be several months along and still not show. Next, Ned also left her with "a bag of silver". Sure, that bag of silver could be pathetic recompense for the loss of her father......or it could be payment for passage on a ship. Perhaps a pirate ship conveniently tucked in at neutral isolated Sweetsister, or a galley out of Stark-loyal White Harbor, but a ship nonetheless....one headed to Dorne.

My proposition is that the Fisherman's Daughter is in fact Lyanna Stark. Whether she went with Rhaegar willingly out of Twoo Wuv and needed arrangements to get to a love nest, or whether she was abducted and raped and needed to hide until the rebellion was over, Ned got word of it and helped this sister that he loved with all his heart leave north-central Westeros by boat. Lyanna as FD was newly pregnant or still early in her pregnancy (like 3ish months) when this took place, which fits pretty well with the 'abduction' and early RR timeline and puts Jon's birth around the time of the Sack as assumed. The area of the Riverlands from where it is rumored that she disappeared is just southeast of Ned's location at the time, so it's not totally impossible that she got herself to the Vale, met Ned, and crossed the mountains with him to the Fingers. (Note: I have a bit of issue with the recount of Ned's route to the Bite and the geography of the Vale & Fingers--this seems in conflict somehow but admit I don't know much about that area so it may be nothing.)

IMO the only way to avoid conflict areas (and follow trade/pirate routes) would be to sail through the Stepstones, around Sunspear and all the ports loyal to the Martells and head straight on via the Summer Sea to the tiny port at Starfall - or arrange to have a second ship do a pickup at a more inconspicuous Dornish port and then head on to Starfall-- but either way, Lyanna ends up at Starfall. This makes most sense to me as we have multiple references to Ashara Dayne and Ned having a "thing" post-Harrenhal, plus Ashara "looking to Stark" which could imply either the "thing" with a Stark fella or a favor that needs to be repaid. Also, the final journey from TOJ to Starfall seems more reasonable when you factor your lover, your sister, and her baby into it.

Depending on what RLJ subplot you believe, *Rhaegar* can join Lyanna on the initial trip, pick up on a second leg of the trip, meet up after taking a different route altogether, or simply be hunting her down with his men....whatever floats your boat there. Point being, they did not make the entire journey together so there's none of this "they went 1000 miles down the Kingsroad in disguise!" nonsense.

Finally, this gets Lyanna into Dorne where she is implied to be, explains the "they", resolves the wonkiness surrounding the idea of the birth of a baby in an abandoned watchtower with 3 KG acting as midwives, and answers the eternal question of how Ned Stark knew to take 7 northmen (all from houses west of the Kingsroad that form a solid line of border defense from the Rills to the Bay of Ice, I might add) down the Prince's Pass and find his missing sister with seemingly minimal effort - he already knew where she was.

A large assumption with this, of course, is that the honorable Ned Stark more or less betrayed his house, his allies, and his cause by doing this...but given all the guilt and angst and burden over his lies/mistakes that is continually alluded to in AGOT plus GRRM's love of moral ambiguity, I think such an act would fit perfectly with Ned's charcter arc.

thoughts? criticisms? blatant plot holes or contradictions? I promise I won't get butthurt. :)

[alienarea]

If Lyanna was giving birth during the fight at the ToJ the 3 KG couldn't know the gender of the child to be born so all the protecting the heir explanations for their presence go down the drain.

Food for thought: Maybe Lyanna asked to let the servants at the ToJ live but Ned killed them anyway because someone always tells?

[avernite]

I just don't see it. If Ned Stark had his sister at the Sisters, and needed a hiding place for her, would he send her to *Dorne*?

WHY?

I mean, seriously. The Starks rule the North. If Ned Stark wants something done, he'd have a much easier time of it anywhere in the North. Send his sister to the Reeds to hide, if hide she must...

If the fisherman's daughter was Lyanna, I would then conclude she went into the North with Ned. For all we know, she even died there? I mean, Jon Snow was first definitively shown to exist at Winterfell, so if Lyanna died in hiding in the North Ned still could've picked her up. It'd make the whole Tower of Joy completely unrelated, though, so I dislike the theory :)

[PrettyPig]

I just don't see it. If Ned Stark had his sister at the Sisters, and needed a hiding place for her, would he send her to *Dorne*?

WHY?

I mean, seriously. The Starks rule the North. If Ned Stark wants something done, he'd have a much easier time of it anywhere in the North. Send his sister to the Reeds to hide, if hide she must...

If the fisherman's daughter was Lyanna, I would then conclude she went into the North with Ned. For all we know, she even died there? I mean, Jon Snow was first definitively shown to exist at Winterfell, so if Lyanna died in hiding in the North Ned still could've picked her up. It'd make the whole Tower of Joy completely unrelated, though, so I dislike the theory :)

My only explanation for that is that Lyanna needed to get OUT of the North for one reason or another - WF, the Vale, the Riverlands, they are calling banners and engaging in battle over this, the Lord of WF and his heir have been killed....I suppose I could see where Lyanna reappearing in the north with a big belly and saying, "Sorry, my bad" might not go over so well. Or, if she and Rhaegar really were a deal, it may have been his idea - get her to a little-affected area of Dorne with a neutral/sympathetic house that wasn't actively participating in the rebellion.

As for her getting to WF and remaining there the whole time, it's possbile I guess. There would be the Bael the Bard parallel (hiding out in the crypts), and IIRC there's that easter egg from the show with the "R L" carved on a beam behind Jon that RLJ fanatics went nuts over....and that was in Winterfell's hall I believe. But yeah, having her be there/die there would complicate the existing storyline a bit and The George would have to do some pretty fancy footwork (fingerwork?) to 1) have everything fall into place sensibly and 2) keep the fanbase from going supernova.

[PrettyPig]

On the location of the watchtower: I still don't get why anyone is assuming that the tower is near the entrance to Dorne. Armies have to go through the passes (or goat tracks). Ned and his small party were not limited like this.

Dorne used to be many kingdoms. There's no reason to assume this watchtower was responsible for keeping watch on the marches or the passes. It is a reasonable guess, but not something we can be certain of by any means. It could easily be a watchtower built on the border of two former Dornish kingdoms. Or to

I have what may be a really, really stupid question: where is it referenced in the text (or confirmed in SSM/WB) that the tower of joy is located in the Prince's Pass?

I did a quick scan-through of the relevant Ned and Cat chapters in AGOT last night, and found nothing stating proximity to the Pass beyond "the red mountains of Dorne at their backs."

Obviously it's near the Marches, but now that I'm looking at a map, I'm wondering if we have been mistaken on the location all along.

[History of Westeros]

I have what may be a really, really stupid question: where is it referenced in the text (or confirmed in SSM/WB) that the tower of joy is located in the Prince's Pass?

I did a quick scan-through of the relevant Ned and Cat chapters in AGOT last night, and found nothing stating proximity to the Pass beyond "the red mountains of Dorne at their backs."

Obviously it's near the Marches, but now that I'm looking at a map, I'm wondering if we have been mistaken on the location all along.

Upthread it was pointed out to me that the Lands of Ice and Fire maps show the location of the ToJ, which I had forgotten about.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

I have what may be a really, really stupid question: where is it referenced in the text (or confirmed in SSM/WB) that the tower of joy is located in the Prince's Pass?

I did a quick scan-through of the relevant Ned and Cat chapters in AGOT last night, and found nothing stating proximity to the Pass beyond "the red mountains of Dorne at their backs."

Obviously it's near the Marches, but now that I'm looking at a map, I'm wondering if we have been mistaken on the location all along.

Not sure we get anything specific in the text itself. As I recall, the only mention of the tower of joy in any of the books at all is Ned's reflection (following his fever dream) that "it was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy" (quoting from my 1997 edition paperback, btw). And earlier, from Catelyn's POV, we know her maids whispered that Ned "had slain [ser Arthur Dayne] in single combat... [and] afterward... had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea."

As far as I know, the first source to offer a specific location was the Maps book - see JNR's link to the relevant map below. Since then, it also appears in the official app. I'm as suspicious as anyone of the app, but here's what it says:

"The Tower of Joy, which is located at the northern end of the Prince's Pass through the red mountains of Dorne, is said to have gotten its name from Prince Rhaegar Targaryen. At the end of Robert's Rebellion, Lord Eddard Stark has the tower pulled down and uses its stones to raise cairns for his five companions and the three knights of the Kingsguard who perish fighting them."

Worth noting, perhaps, that the app capitalizes "Tower of Joy," whereas the reference in Martin's original text does not. Perhaps future books will reveal it to have be a proper name in some respect... but given that so far we have no indication this is the case, I view these capital letters as a good, if minor, example of the way the App itself has been shaped by reader interpretations and theories. Take that for what it's worth.

(Also worth noting, of course, is the fact that the entry makes no reference whatsoever to Lyanna.)

It might be you're not aware the Maps book establishes this conclusively (assuming the Maps book can be trusted at all).

[PrettyPig]

I knew that the Prince's Pass locale had been officially pinpointed in Lands, but IIRC the assumption of /discussion around this being "the" location predates both Maps and the app, does it not?

So yes, that's why I'm curious as to whether the TOJ-in-PP idea was a reader creation that GRRM hasn't bothered to dispute or correct for myriad reasons, and over time it has become so widely accepted as fact (as there's nothing out there to refute it) that this notion has become canonical reference.

By the time Lands and the app came into being, GRRM wouldn't be in a position to reveal a location different that than already assumed without causing a major tectonic upheaval in the RLJ mystery, so silence - or rather, simply not contradicting it - might be the only option.

Anyway, just a thought. Was looking at a map of the Stormlands and isn't it coincidental that Rhaegar's favorite ruined haunt of Summerhall has the red mountains of Dorne at its back.

[Black Crow]

I'm trying hard to remember the reason why, but I have a recollection of arguing with the R+L=J crowd quite early on that the tower made an unlikely hideout since it wasn't remote and hidden at all but located in the Prince's Pass with Uncle Tom Cobley and all going past on a daily basis.

[JNR]

Everybody is taking this for granted. What if a few people knew where [Rhaegar and Lyanna] were? Suppose Aerys did, but Rhaegar refused to go back to KL. What would Aerys do? First, trying to make do without him. Then, try to convince him to come back. I think that's what he did. But Aerys had no advantage in telling everybody where Rhaegar was.

Aerys had no idea where Rhaegar was for months and months. We know this from FFC:

Jon Connington had been Prince Rhaegar’s friend. When Merryweather failed so dismally to contain Robert’s Rebellion and Prince Rhaegar could not be found, Aerys had turned to the next best thing, and raised Connington to the Handship.

The only alternative is to imagine Aerys for some reason deliberately chose Connington to be Hand over his own son... while pretending to be unaware of Rhaegar's location. This seems to me to be quite a leap.

Rhaegar's location also could not have been public knowledge for the same reason. If it were, this info would certainly have found its way to the king.

So how did Rhaegar, probably the single most recognizable person in the continent, manage to get Lyanna Stark many hundreds of miles south to the ToJ without Aerys learning where he was? Especially at that time, when his disappearance with Lyanna was the biggest news story of the day and any rumor would spread instantly?

[JNR]

Let's look at this a moment. Ned "left her with a bastard in her belly", meaning then that the fisherman's daughter was not visibly pregnant on Sweetsister. Now as I'm sure we are all aware, not visibly pregnant =/= not pregnant. A woman can be several months along and still not show.

I had never imagined the fisherman's daughter might be Lyanna. Interesting idea.

However, the timeline seems problematic. Since Jon was born around the Sack, and the rebellion lasted about a year, Lyanna would have conceived Jon some three-four months into it. So at the time Ned was in the Bite -- the "dawn of the rebellion" -- it seems there wasn't yet a baby in Lyanna's belly.

[JNR]

I'm trying hard to remember the reason why, but I have a recollection of arguing with the R+L=J crowd quite early on that the tower made an unlikely hideout since it wasn't remote and hidden at all but located in the Prince's Pass with Uncle Tom Cobley and all going past on a daily basis.

I would guess the reason you made this case is... that your position is awfully strong.

The same argument that crowd always makes against Aegon going to the TOJ -- "why not just ship him off to Essos to keep him safe" -- applies just as much to Lyanna.

If Rhaegar wanted her out of the way during what was sure to be a tumultuous time in Westeros, a pretty little estate in Essos would be a far simpler, more comfortable, and safer solution for her than a tower in Dorne small enough for Ned to pull down and build a handful of cairns.

[Black Crow]

It probably rather depends on why they all went to Dorne in the first place. If they were simply doing a runner then somewhere like Dragonstone would mave made much more sense. Going to Dorne and spending so long there requires Doran Martell's knowledge and Doran Martell's consent and that rather suggests that he was involved from the very beginning and not improbably the reason for going there in the first place. With Rhaegar planning a coup a Dornish army at his back would make a lot of sense.

[JNR]

With Rhaegar planning a coup a Dornish army at his back would make a lot of sense.

Certainly would. However, it would also make sense for Rhaegar to get his family away from the Red Keep and Aerys' power long before things might take a nasty turn in that area, and we know he didn't.

This tells me that whatever was in Rhaegar's mind, even as late as the time he returned to KL "from the south," he didn't think it was going to develop in such a way that his wife or kids could be threatened -- by his father or anyone else. If a coup, a remarkably diplomatic and smoothly-handled one.

[Black Crow]

I rather suspect that dying at the Trident came as something of a shock to him and upset all his carefully laid plans.

[avernite]

One reason to go south to Dorne is, of course, to get away from the North. The Starks, Arryns and Baratheons might hit somewhere in Essos, but the Dornish despise the Stormlords and the others are further away from Dorne than from Essos (at least travel-wise).

[PrettyPig]

I had never imagined the fisherman's daughter might be Lyanna. Interesting idea.

However, the timeline seems problematic. Since Jon was born around the Sack, and the rebellion lasted about a year, Lyanna would have conceived Jon some three-four months into it. So at the time Ned was in the Bite -- the "dawn of the rebellion" -- it seems there wasn't yet a baby in Lyanna's belly.

Since there is so much dissent over the RR timeline, it's almost impossbile to say for sure. If it "officially" began when Jon Arryn raised his banners and "officially" ended with the siege at SE a year-ish later, the Trident/Sack could have occurred some 10-11 months in and it would work. But, with nothing concrete re: timing for any of the events (we know approximate chronology but not dates), this theory could be way off and not work at all. Hard to tell.

I'm roughly guesstimating that the Battle of the Bells, the last major conflict before the Trident, was around halfway into RR if not more. If that is the case, Ned's detour on Sweetsister with the FD could have been 1-2 months in which could still have Jon born around the Sack. However, not having a benchmark for anything (even Robb's name day) makes it tough to nail down.

[PrettyPig]

Certainly would. However, it would also make sense for Rhaegar to get his family away from the Red Keep and Aerys' power long before things might take a nasty turn in that area, and we know he didn't.

This tells me that whatever was in Rhaegar's mind, even as late as the time he returned to KL "from the south," he didn't think it was going to develop in such a way that his wife or kids could be threatened -- by his father or anyone else. If a coup, a remarkably diplomatic and smoothly-handled one.

Taking Aegon out of the equation momentarily, Rhaegar probably never envisioned any threat toward Elia or Rhaenys in the first place due to their gender. Two half-Martell gals in patrilineal Westeros? Safe as houses!

[finger]

Dunno about motivation, really - as I mentioned, I think this acts as a literary retcon mechanism more than anything. One of the hot questions in the RLJ/TOJ argument is "how the heck did they make it from the Riverlands to the Dornish mountains in the middle of a war without being noticed?" and in my opinion this theory could be a way for The George to set up that scenario.

skip

There was no war yet. In fact, this episode triggered the events that led to the RR.

[JNR]

I rather suspect that dying at the Trident came as something of a shock to him and upset all his carefully laid plans.

Quite. I'm sorry to say I think Rhaegar was fundamentally wrong about some important matters, and because he was, quite a few fans are as well.

Taking Aegon out of the equation momentarily, Rhaegar probably never envisioned any threat toward Elia or Rhaenys in the first place due to their gender. Two half-Martell gals in patrilineal Westeros? Safe as houses!

Well, in the scenario Black Crown described, where Rhaegar launches a coup against his father using Dornish forces? And Aerys, aware of this, has a Dornish princess and her children? I wonder.

I think if he saw hope as lost, he might cut all their throats in the same spirit that he, during the Sack, was prepared to torch the entire city. Surely Rhaegar could see that event coming.

If I had to guess, I'd say Rhaegar expected to win at the Trident, build political power as a result while somehow avoiding Aerys' paranoia on the subject, and then take such steps as he deemed best after securing his family's safety. But if so, that plan really didn't work out for him.