Would Walder Frey have betrayed Robb if he hadn't married Jeyne?

[Lord Lannister]

The topic subject poses the question I'd like to discuss. Walder Frey was always opportunistic and out for himself first we all know that. He built up quite possibly the most powerful House and certainly the largest in the Riverlands. While he has a past of brooding over every little slight against him and taking revenge in petty ways, his most infamous act was the Red Wedding after Robb betrayed him and broke the engagement to one of his daughters by marrying Jeyne Westerling.

Roose Bolton was certainly already searching for a way out of Robb's kingdom during a Storm of Swords, but if Robb hadn't married Jeyne would Walder Frey have stayed true to him? On one hand his daughter or granddaughter would end up being Queen of the North. That's a tempting prospect for the vain old man that he is, that he may very well be willing to go all in. On the flip side, the marriage wasn't slated to happen until "after the war." The odds against the North and the Riverlands triumphing against the Lannister regime were quite long. Walder Frey always seems to be a man who lands on his feet as it were, so it's quite possible he would broker a deal with the Lannisters if(likely when) the war started to obviously turn against Robb.

[Ali Colak]

People switching back and forth between alliances was a common historical occurance, as you can see in the historical

analysis section of this article http://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/chapter-by-chapter-analysis-catelyn-ix/.

Something as major as the RW would have been a little too much, but that he would have switched camps is without doubt.

[TheRevanchist]

IF Robb would have married his daughter (so not marrying Jeyne) then Frey would have stayed loyal. Unless, the odds would have been completely against Robb, in which case, he would have betrayed him.

So, whoever gives him the best deal. With Robb, he would have got his grandchildren as King of the North/Riverlands and actually Tullys (whom he hated) would have had as a king a half-Frey. Very good prospect.

So, he's not loyal but I guess he would have stayed with Robb.

[Horza]

After Blackwater a number of senior and level-headed Freys give voice to their fears that the war is lost, telling Roose Bolton that Robb must seek terms. If they were thinking it, there's no reason to believe Walder Frey wasn't. The dishonouring of Roslin was two tonnes of jet fuel on a blaze that was already spreading.

[Stannatic]

What Robb clearly didn't appreciate was that the Frey's took a massive leap of faith in siding with him to begin with. They had every reason to believe they'd face the Castamere treatment if his side lost. And for better or for worse, the Frey's do seem to value family. So no, I don't believe he would have betrayed Robb if he had married a Frey girl.

[Sullen]

They would have pressed him to bend the knee, but with so the marriage still standing, I doubt they would have done much else.

[Dildo_Baggins]

With Robb, he would have got his grandchildren as King of the North/Riverlands

Dis

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes, most certainly.

What he wouldn't have done was sewing Greywind's head on Robb's corpse and the other disgusting stuff done with the corpses afterward out of spite

What Robb clearly didn't appreciate was that the Frey's took a massive leap of faith in siding with him to begin with. They had every reason to believe they'd face the Castamere treatment if his side lost. And for better or for worse, the Frey's do seem to value family. So no, I don't believe he would have betrayed Robb if he had married a Frey girl.

:bs:

The Freys did no more than every other House of North and Riverlands. That applies to both Robb and Tywin's potential reaction.

[Chaircat Meow]

I recommend this thread by Ramsay Gimp.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/102753-house-freys-main-motive-for-the-red-wedding/

The Red Wedding was wholly vengeance on Frey's part. No realpolitick involved, other than as a little sauce. He didn't need to do what he did to get into Tywin's good books again.

[Chaircat Meow]

Here is the relevant SSM.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Some_Questions1

[dbunting]

Simple answer, if Robb is still winning the war, then no, Frey would never betray him. However, as soon as Frey thought Robb might lose he would do what he could to change sides.

[Lee-Sensei]

Yes, most certainly.

What he wouldn't have done was sewing Greywind's head on Robb's corpse and the other disgusting stuff done with the corpses afterward out of spite

:bs:

The Freys did no more than every other House of North and Riverlands. That applies to both Robb and Tywin's potential reaction.

There wouldn't have been any corpses. The red wedding was a reaction to robb marrying jeyne. They would have tried to find a way out of the war peacefully.

[Horza]

I recommend this thread by Ramsay Gimp.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/102753-house-freys-main-motive-for-the-red-wedding/

The Red Wedding was wholly vengeance on Frey's part. No realpolitick involved, other than as a little sauce. He didn't need to do what he did to get into Tywin's good books again.

There was a lot of personal satisfaction at play, but I don't think the Red Wedding was devoid of realpolitik, not least because ASOS Tyrion VI makes it clear that killing Robb was at minimum a satisfactory outcome within the Frey-Lannister compact, if not the main objective. That's already a severe violation of guest right even without extra defilement -- not that simply bundling him over to the Lannisters and slaughtering his men would have been a mere infraction.

The logic is evident in this quote of George R. R. Martin's as delivered under a pseudonym via an elaborate multivolume fantasy epic of some kind:

“Far be it from me to question your cunning, Father, but in your place I do believe I’d have let Robert Baratheon bloody his own hands.”

Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. “You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert’s cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert’s relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar’s children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children.”

Similarly, Frey and Bolton as latecomers have to demonstrate their irrevocable loyalty to the Lannister cause. The Red Wedding certainly accomplishes that, and would have even if it spared Robb and Catelyn.

[Chaircat Meow]

There was a lot of personal satisfaction at play, but I don't think the Red Wedding was devoid of realpolitik, not least because ASOS Tyrion VI makes it clear that killing Robb was at minimum a satisfactory outcome within the Frey-Lannister compact, if not the main objective. That's already a severe violation of guest right even without extra defilement -- not that simply bundling him over to the Lannisters and slaughtering his men would have been a mere infraction.

I'm not denying Frey slotted his vengeance plan into some plan for advancement. I'm saying that was sauce though: it wasn't the real, primary reason what happened happened.

The logic is evident in this quote of George R. R. Martin's as delivered under a pseudonym via an elaborate multivolume fantasy epic of some kind:

Similarly, Frey and Bolton as latecomers have to demonstrate their irrevocable loyalty to the Lannister cause. The Red Wedding certainly accomplishes that, and would have even if it spared Robb and Catelyn.

Very poor logic, suspiciously so from Tywin. I think there was rather more going on there than meets the eye.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Similarly, Frey and Bolton as latecomers have to demonstrate their irrevocable loyalty to the Lannister cause. The Red Wedding certainly accomplishes that, and would have even if it spared Robb and Catelyn.

Why? House Bracken and the other Riverlords who sued for peace after the Red Wedding did not have to show irrevocable loyalty in the same manor. Nor did the Lords who surrendered after the Battle of Blackwater.

Tywin wanted an end to the war.

[Chaircat Meow]

Why? House Bracken and the other Riverlords who sued for peace after the Red Wedding did not have to show irrevocable loyalty in the same manor. Nor did the Lords who surrendered after the Battle of Blackwater.

Yeah, you really don't need to pull a RW to save your hide with the Lannister regime. No one else did.

[Horza]

I'm not denying Frey slotted his vengeance plan into some plan for advancement. I'm saying that was sauce though: it wasn't the real, primary reason what happened happened.

Some things were clearly revenge-oriented, like the humiliation and subsequent desecration. But the rest of it was pretty simple power-play: the wedding was an opportune situation for capturing the senior leadership of the Stark-Tully cause in a swoop and killing off their main armed force. That was an exceptionally good way for Frey and Bolton to demonstrate their loyalty and worth to Tywin Lannister and they took it.

Very poor logic, suspiciously so from Tywin. I think there was rather more going on there than meets the eye.

Firstly, it's the logic of Tywin, which is the logic Frey and Bolton need to meet. Secondly, why is it poor?

Why? House Bracken and the other Riverlords who sued for peace after the Red Wedding did not have to show irrevocable loyalty in the same manor. Nor did the Lords who surrendered after the Battle of Blackwater.

Surrendering is one thing. Switching sides is another. Add to this that Frey and Bolton are two especially powerful lords with largely untapped strength, whose cooperation is required to stamp out the last embers of resistance. For Tywin to be able to rely on them, they need to demonstrate to Tywin that their bridges with the other side are burned, just as Tywin needed to show Robert he wasn't going to be harboring any baby dragons in future.

[Guard of the Rainking]

He might have still betrayed him using the deaths of Tion and Stevron Frey as an execuse.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

There wouldn't have been any corpses. The red wedding was a reaction to robb marrying jeyne. They would have tried to find a way out of the war peacefully.

...like putting an arrow between Robb's shoulderblades, a dagger in his ribs or poison in his drink. Most likely at the same time as Edmund, the Blackfish and Cat suffer unfortunate accidents as well. But no Red Wedding as such.

[Chaircat Meow]

Some things were clearly revenge-oriented, like the humiliation and subsequent desecration. But the rest of it was pretty simple power-play: the wedding was an opportune situation for capturing the senior leadership of the Stark-Tully cause in a swoop and killing off their main armed force. That was an exceptionally good way for Frey and Bolton to demonstrate their loyalty and worth to Tywin Lannister and they took it.

It's good power politics on the part of the Lannisters, sure. Not for the Freys though. You don't need to do anything like that to make your peace with the government in King's Landing.

Firstly, it's the logic of Tywin, which is the logic Frey and Bolton need to meet. Secondly, why is it poor?

There's no sign it's the logic Frey and Bolton need to meet, at all.

It's poor because Tywin thoroughly burnt his bridges with the old regime and then, somehow, landed the big prize, (the Queenship for Cersei) a reward for which he would have been ruled out given his irrevocable expression of support. Of course, I think he had arranged it in advance with Jon, so it made sense, but he doesn't say that there meaning the stated logic is poor. And his main motive was revenge for Aerys's treatment of his wife (that's speculative of course). Anyway, Highgarden and Sunspear are still standing: no need for irrevocable declaration of loyalty from them.

Surrendering is one thing. Switching sides is another. Add to this that Frey and Bolton are two especially powerful lords with largely untapped strength, whose cooperation is required to stamp out the last embers of resistance. For Tywin to be able to rely on them, they need to demonstrate to Tywin that their bridges with the other side are burned, just as Tywin needed to show Robert he wasn't going to be harboring any baby dragons in future.

If you burn your bridges you can be taken for granted, and there's no need to reward you.