Stopping incestuous marriage was political suicide

[The silver dragon]

It's not the first time the Targaryens got to marry someone who wasn't a Targaryen. Daemon Blackfyre was looking for any excuse to cause a war, and of course, the Dornish alliance and Daenerys' marriage provided a good one.

Was an alliance needed? Well, Dorne was always that one stain in the good score of the Targaryens, as they were unable to conquer them. And years later, it was the Targaryens who attacked them and broke the the peace they blackmailed out of Aegon I due to Daeron the Callow and Aegon the Fucker. So, not only a Martell married into the Targaryens, a Targaryen princess was sent to marry into House Martell. It was a fair deal that put them almost as equals, as they even kept their titles. I'm sure many would see this as dangerous, but oh... the only were, apparently, Daemon and his entourage :dunno:

This part is from the wiki, but I think it summarizes it very well:

"In truth the war broke out because the seeds had found fertile ground because of Aegon the Unworthy. Aegon hated the Dornish and many Lords and Houses who spent centuries at war with the Dorne longed for the return of those days. Many great warriors looked on dismay on a realm no longer at war and did not like a peaceful, scholarly king who filled the court with learned men, Septons, Dornish and women. They looked at Daemon and saw a Warrior. Many lords and knights with grievances against the Iron Throne soon sought Daemon out".

Look at how Cersei is mad that the Tyrells are placing Tyrell men in court and Margaery has a lot of influence in KL. While those men are capable, those are not the men she would want, and she's seeing conspiracies where there are none. It's the same, except Daemon wasn't a paranoid but simply wanted to cause a war. If Daeron had married some Arryn or Tyrell girl, Daemon would be talking about the "Tyrell/Arryn influence in court" being dangerous as well.

1.) a useful one though? it certainly did not save the dynasty.

2.) Qoren Martell fought against daemon on the step-stones. daemon being affiliated to the iron throne.

and Aliandra encouraged her lord's to attack and sack the marches who are a part of the iron throne. so no it was the martell's who broke the cease fire, not daeron.

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

On the contrary the Targs ended up with little support by blood connection other than the Dornish. Robert used a targ granny as an excuse, it meant nothing. Notice how the alliance that brought the targs down was based on varied marriages?

[Winterfell is Burning]

1.) i don't know. Daemon did not seem that determined to take the throne until bitter-steel and fireball convinced him.

2.) well in bitter-steel case you have to either kill blood-raven or kill bitter-steel. as they cannot coexist, one of the main factor's in bitter-steel siding with daemon was blood-raven and daeron close relationship. "a brother i loved".

3.) make fireball a kings guard. as refusal of that was what made him plot treason.

(as a general rule you should not piss off good warriors, especially hotheaded ones.)

but they would find a lot less support. perhaps making them reconsider committing treason.

Maybe it's just me, but a man that forces his wife to join the Silent Sisters so he could become a Kingsguard and later organizes a rebellion when he's denied is not the kind of man I want guarding me.

Also, it's not confirmed Daeron is the brother BR loved (and the age difference was too big for them to really act as brothers, rather than a father/son or uncle/nephew relationship). Daemon being it makes a lot more sense, both due to the age difference and poetically.

[XSarellaX]

Even if Daeron II had married a sister, he would still be viewed as quiet, scholarly, influenced by Maesters, etc, etc. He just wasn't the type of guy many westerosi lords wanted as king, while Daemon looked more the part.

Maybe the lords resented the presence of enemies at court, but I think it would be an exaggeration to say that was the cause of the war.

Political mariages are a useful tool that can benefit monarchs if used wisely, or generate wars if your in-laws are too ambitious. They aren't always bad or always good.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Political mariages are a useful tool that can benefit monarchs if used wisely, or generate wars if your in-laws are too ambitious. They aren't always bad or always good.

Correct. As long as people aren't grasping, self-interested and venal, and provided they're happy not to play the game of thrones with their newfound influence, it should all be fine, just fine.

[The silver dragon]

Maybe it's just me, but a man that forces his wife to join the Silent Sisters so he could become a Kingsguard and later organizes a rebellion when he's denied is not the kind of man I want guarding me.

Also, it's not confirmed Daeron is the brother BR loved (and the age difference was too big for them to really act as brothers, rather than a father/son or uncle/nephew relationship). Daemon being it makes a lot more sense, both due to the age difference and poetically.

1.) well then you have to get rid of fireball somehow then. not keep him in the red keep. if you deny a man who want's to be Kings-guard the position of kings-guard the expect him to start looking for a new king. (this is what barristan does once joff refuse's him the white cloak.)

2.) not really. Daemon had a great relationship with bitter-steel, blood raven hated bitter-steel, and that's not even mentioning the fact that daeron, his mom, and uncle were friends with Melissa Black-wood.

[Lord Varys]

Yes. The idea that Bloodraven may have loved Daemon Blackfyre is officially dead now. This did not even make all that much sense in the first place, but with TWoIaF in mind - the friendship between Bloodraven's mother Melissa and Naerys, Daeron, and Aemon; the fact that Bloodraven executed Aenys Blackfyre - makes all but impossible that Bloodraven ever particularly liked or was close to Daemon Blackfyre.

The other thing:

I'm inclined to believe that there was no love left between Fireball and Prince Daeron, which would be a good explanation as to why Daeron II did not choose Fireball for his Kingsguard. After all, Fireball was the master-of-arms at the Red Keep, and thus a man very into the whole feats of arms thing. Daeron was no warrior, and thus it is very likely that the manly warrior-type men at his father's court did not particularly like even before the whole Dornish thing began (and the bastardy rumors began to circulate).

Nor does it seem likely that Daeron would have liked a man like Fireball in his Kingsguard. The Kingsguard is a strict order, obedience and loyalty are much more important than strength of arms (or hunger for glory), so people like Fireball should possibly not join such an order in the first place. One wonders what Fireball did for Aegon IV that the latter promised him a place in the KG. I'd not be surprised if this involved Fireball's wife before she was sent to the Silent Sisters...

[Ramsay's Penguins]

Although, marrying out stuffs things up just as much. Especially into minor houses, such as Costayne. They've hated the Targs ever since. Likewise with Egg's sons and Egg's uncles. Royce marriage never really worked out either.

Is anyone else perplexed by the lack of Celtigar marriages though? They were similar to Velaryon's (although smaller island, but some influence on Crackclaw Point) so the lack of Targ marriages is jarring. Unless it was to pre-conquest Targs, which I expect incest, Massey, Darklyn, Celtigar and Qoherys marriages.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Although, marrying out stuffs things up just as much. Especially into minor houses, such as Costayne. They've hated the Targs ever since. Likewise with Egg's sons and Egg's uncles. Royce marriage never really worked out either.

Is anyone else perplexed by the lack of Celtigar marriages though? They were similar to Velaryon's (although smaller island, but some influence on Crackclaw Point) so the lack of Targ marriages is jarring. Unless it was to pre-conquest Targs, which I expect incest, Massey, Darklyn, Celtigar and Qoherys marriages.

It seems they picked Velaryons when they had to marry outside the family because of their Valyrian looks (in terms of the purity of their "dragon blood", that's probably irrelevant and any non-Targ is a problem). But just going by that logic, maybe the Celtigars' Valyrian features disappeared.

Mind you, GRRM plays really fast and loose with heredity. How exactly did the Velaryons keep their Valyrian looks? Did they mostly just marry into the Free Cities (good old Lys)? Otherwise if they just married other houses of similar standing, they should look like Andals/First Men by now.

I guess the Velaryons may also have practiced incestuous marriage up until some point (TWOIAF says it was especially a thing for dragonlord families, but not exclusively).

[Ramsay's Penguins]

It seems they picked Velaryons when they had to marry outside the family because of their Valyrian looks (in terms of the purity of their "dragon blood", that's probably irrelevant and any non-Targ is a problem). But just going by that logic, maybe the Celtigars' Valyrian features disappeared.

Mind you, GRRM plays really fast and loose with heredity. How exactly did the Velaryons keep their Valyrian looks? Did they mostly just marry into the Free Cities (good old Lys)? Otherwise if they just married other houses of similar standing, they should look like Andals/First Men by now.

I guess the Velaryons may also have practiced incestuous marriage up until some point (TWOIAF says it was especially a thing for dragonlord families, but not exclusively).

Besides the Durrandon/Baratheons the genetics are semi realistic. (Durrandons having magic black hair because of the marriage between Elenei the Mermaid and Durran). Blonde hair is an Andal thing, and Lannisters marry a lot of Andals, otherwise the marry themselves, so those old excessive genes pop up again. Same goes for Tyrells. Velaryons would probably marry Celtigars and Lyseni yeah. (Saan/Velaryon marriage ftw!). But they aren't limited to it. Celtigars and Baratheons they've also married. The magic Baratheon hair doesn't last long once it's out of the main line.

[Lord Varys]

There is a hint that there that at least the lordly branch of House Celtigar during the Dance does not have any Targaryen blood, as Rhaenyra is quite convinced that the then-ruling Lord Celtigar is not going to become a dragonrider (although this could also be a pun towards his age or his well-known cowardice).

The Celtigars seem to be a lesser Valyrian house, even below the Velaryons (who never where dragonlords back in Valyria, it seems), explaining why the Targaryens never married into that house before the Conquest. Although I guess it is possible that the Velaryons have Celtigar blood.

We know that the Targaryens used 'spare daughters' for political marriages on occasion, and this could be very well have been done prior to the Conquest as well, especially with some cousins or nieces of Lord Aenar following his arrival on Dragonstone.

As I've said elsewhere, it is very likely that there were matches between the Targaryens on Dragonstone with the Darklyns and the Masseys - the latter are very close to Dragonstone even before the Conquest, and the Darklyns controlled the biggest harbor on the eastern coast. It would be smart for the recently arrived Targaryens to strike a deal with the rulers of Duskendale.

As to the Valyrian looks:

They don't seem to be as recessive as we originally thought when confronted with Baelor Breakspear and Valarr. Jaehaerys II has a Blackwood mother, a paternal Dayne grandmother (who may have had looks similar to usual Valyrian features), and a paternal Martell great-grandmother, yet he has the prototypical Targaryen looks, and, presumably, his sister-wife Shaera as well (and Aerys and Rhaella, too).

This could confirm that a bloodline does not easily lose the Valyrian traits completely, although it may be that Duncan, Daeron, and Rhaelle had considerably less Valyrian traits than Jaehaerys and Shaera. I'd not be surprised if Duncan's children by Jenny would have had no Valyrian traits at all, but it is really hard to tell.

We also don't know whether the looks are a hint that the dragonlords gene stuff necessary for dragonriding is strong or not. Most dragonriders seemed to have had Valyrian looks, but certainly not all of them (Rhaenyra's sons, Nettles, and Hugh did not).

It could be sufficient for a Valyrian noble line to only marry occasionally a cousin or so to preserve most of the traits. George's view on genetics is not exactly rooted in biology, but I guess his take on the whole incest thing could also be that through generation-long incest the traits were sort of bred and reinforced in the bloodline again and again that it would take more than one or two infusions of 'foreign blood' to get rid of all the traits.

For all we know, the Targaryens practiced incest for thousands of years. Back in Valyria the Velaryons may have practiced the usual incest as well, following the example of the dragonlords (as seems to be still the case in Lys and Volantis), but nothing suggests that they did the same on Driftmark, not even after the Conquest. If that had been the case one should assume that Rhaenys and Corlys had married Laena and Laenor to each other. I imagine after the Conquest the king decided who was allowed to enter into an incestuous marriage and who wasn't.

Alyssa Velaryon seemed to have been in favor of this whole incest thing as well, as she most certainly was the one who arranged the marriage between Jaehaerys and Alysanne, as well as the marriage between her grandson Prince Aemon (Jaehaerys' eldest surviving son by Alysanne) and Jocelyn Baratheon, her daughter by her second husband Lord Robar.

[TheSovereignGrave]

Besides the Durrandon/Baratheons the genetics are semi realistic. (Durrandons having magic black hair because of the marriage between Elenei the Mermaid and Durran). Blonde hair is an Andal thing, and Lannisters marry a lot of Andals, otherwise the marry themselves, so those old excessive genes pop up again. Same goes for Tyrells. Velaryons would probably marry Celtigars and Lyseni yeah. (Saan/Velaryon marriage ftw!). But they aren't limited to it. Celtigars and Baratheons they've also married. The magic Baratheon hair doesn't last long once it's out of the main line.

I don't think the Lannister looks are an Andal thing; the Lannisters are a First Men House. And there's really no appreciable difference (physically, at least) between an Andal and a First Man anymore thanks to millennia of interbreeding.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Lord Varys - I've wondered if a couple of generations of sibling marriages (where both siblings have the dragonblood / are dragonriders) could essentially reverse whatever dilution happens when non-Targs are brought into the bloodline. Maybe that's why ultimately marrying a Velaryon may not have been so concerning to be Targs, as long as a dragonrider son and daughter were born who could continue the line. Given that Rhaenyra had three dragonrider children with Breakbones (the Greens were right about that much, at least), it seems that a drafonrider may be more likely than not to be born of such a union. The bonus of marrying Velaryons though is that they also get the looks.

Mind you, none of this may have made any sense by the time of Aegon V. Without dragons around, the real reason faded from memory - and the sibling marriages became a tradition without a purpose, it seemed. We also don't know the extent of Baelor the Befuddled's book burning, but I'd wager he took a solid chunk out of the family dragonlore as well. So Jaehaerys II happened to fall for his sister, and then force his children to marry because of a prophecy - but I doubt there was any comprehension there as to what the original reason for this practice was.

[Ramsay's Penguins]

I don't think the Lannister looks are an Andal thing; the Lannisters are a First Men House. And there's really no appreciable difference (physically, at least) between an Andal and a First Man anymore thanks to millennia of interbreeding.

Speculation has it that Lann the Clever is an Andal.

Incest makes genetics last longer.

[Lord Varys]

I guess the whole purity of blood idea came up some time after the dawn of Valyria when the first dragonlords realized that the probability that all their great-great-grandchildren could become dragonlords was much higher if they had only two or four great-great-grandparents rather than sixteen...

The children of a dragonlord most likely had the potential to become dragonlords themselves, but their children or grandchildren may have had more difficulty in that field. But I guess long-time incest prior to bunch of infusions of non-dragonlord blood would not completely ruin everything, as the concentration of a certain 'magical gene pool' in the predominantly incestuous line would be very resilient. Thus I guess it would still be possibly, but very unlikely, that descendant of a dragonlord in the 100th or so non-incestuous generation could become a dragonrider.

But considering that dragons were power in Valyria, it would have been paramount for the dragonlords that all their children and grandchildren inherit the ability to become dragonlords themselves. It would not do to have, say, five children, only two of them being able to become dragonlords. Thus incest became the norm among the dragonlords, and apparently eventually, too, among the non-dragonlord noble families.

TWoIaF also repeatedly mentioned that the rulers of Volantis had dragonlord kin. This could be a hint that such cadet branches of dragonlord families came from polygamous marriages in which the dragonlord in question took a primary sister-wife, and secondary wives from lesser stock. The offspring from such marriages would be related to the dragonlord family, but usually not be permitted to claim dragons.

[Jaak]

But considering that dragons were power in Valyria, it would have been paramount for the dragonlords that all their children and grandchildren inherit the ability to become dragonlords themselves. It would not do to have, say, five children, only two of them being able to become dragonlords. Thus incest became the norm among the dragonlords, and apparently eventually, too, among the non-dragonlord noble families.

But that was precisely the position in the early generations of Targaryens in Westeros.

Aerys had 5 children reach adulthood. Rhaena, Jaehaerys and Alysanne rode their own dragons. Aegon eventually tamed is father´s Quicksilver - meaning he did not have his own dragon. And no dragon is mentioned for Viserys, so only Jaehaerys of three sons had his own dragon.

Jaehaerys and Alysanne brought up 9 children. We do not know the dragons of any of them. But the distinction of third son Vaegon as Dragonless suggests that at least some others had dragons.

If all the other 8 had had dragons, then seeing their various causes of death, their dragons could not have died with them. And the dragons left behing by the six dead daughters simply are not in evidence after 101. So the only logical interpretation might be if the two elder sons had dragons - but all six daughters were dragonless like Vaegon. Thus, 2 dragonriders out of 9 adult children.

So, what are the possible explanations?

• Jaehaerys´ daughters could not ride dragons - they tried but failed. (Cannot apply to Aegon, who successfully tamed Quicksilver)
• There were not enough dragons available for all the children who were capable of riding them
• Jaehaerys directly forbade some children to ride dragons, even though options existed - like Viserys forbade gift of egg to Mysaria

Now, Targaryen family lasted thousands of years in Valyria - and after that time had just 5 dragons.

In long term, the stable replacement level would be 2 dragonriding children to replace 2 dragonriding parents. This whether the total number of children is 2 or 9. A dragonriding family would only be in trouble if 1 child of 2 parents can ride a dragon and therefore dragons are left riderless.

Also: at Exile, Targaryens had 5 dragons, and while Balerion was hatched, it is not clear if it was ridable.

The Targaryen family members attested at Exile were Aenar, his children Gaemon and Daenys, and Aenar´s "wives" - plural, minimum 2 - and "siblings" - also plural, minimum 2. And "other kin". Already with "wives" and "siblings" we were at a minimum of 7 Targaryen family members/potential dragonriders, and a maximum of 5 dragons.

So, at Exile, it was impossible to match a dragon to each Targaryen. And it was also not possible to supply a dragon to each Targaryen under Aenys or Jaehaerys. The times that there were dragons for all potential riders (like Aegon´s three) or dragons were in excess (under Rhaenyra, as most children hatched new dragonets, and the dragons of deceased were left over) were the exception.

TWoIaF also repeatedly mentioned that the rulers of Volantis had dragonlord kin. This could be a hint that such cadet branches of dragonlord families came from polygamous marriages in which the dragonlord in question took a primary sister-wife, and secondary wives from lesser stock. The offspring from such marriages would be related to the dragonlord family, but usually not be permitted to claim dragons.

Again, just why? An obvious alternative could be be full blood siblings from incestuous marriages who failed to hatch an egg, or failed to tame an old dragon, or for whom there was no old dragon available to tame. Like Viserys son of Aegon, or Vaegon (no Citadel in Valyria), or Rhaena (before Morning) or Viserys II.

[Lord Varys]

Jaak,

well, there would have been dragonlord families who controlled much more dragons than the Targaryens when Aenar left, as George has already confirmed that the Targaryens were not amongst the more powerful dragonlord families. And we know from Yandel that one dragonlord family alone called the shots in Valyria at times, suggesting that they would have to have been both numerous and capable of controlling as many dragons as possible.

I was arguing in favor of the dragonlords wanting to be able to conceive as many potential dragonlords as possible. I never said that all those potential dragonlords would have become dragonlords - they wouldn't, if there was a shortage in dragons.

As to the point about the dragonlord kin in Volantis: I doubt that a dragonless potential dragonlord would just because of that fact fall from grace and end up becoming an adventurer/merchant whatever. We know that Viserys I remained the head of a family of dragonriders without being a dragonrider himself, and the same could work in Valyria, especially as a dragonless potential dragonlord would still have the necessary gene to conceive other potential dragonlords if married to another close relative.

I think we have to imagine the forty dragonlord families as large clans - despite the incest - with various branches. Valyria was a huge city, the rulers of the Freehold governed vast estates, and there were hundreds of dragons to be ridden.

And your speculation on Aenys' children is well and good, but we don't know when and how Rhaena, Jaehaerys, and Alysanne got Dreamfyre, Vermithor, and Silverwing. All we know for sure is that Aegon must have claimed Quicksilver after Aenys' death. But we do not know if Aegon (and Rhaena) rode multiple dragons. Aegon's (and Rhaena's) first dragon could have been killed during the progress which resulted in them being besieged in Crakehall Castle. A major point of the whole royal progress thing would have been to show off the Targaryen dragons, suggesting that Aegon and Rhaena took their dragons with them - and if they had dragons, they could have escaped on dragonback, which means they would not have been besieged (unless the dragons had been killed).

Since we don't know how Aegon eventually claimed Quicksilver - that would be a rather interesting story, as Aegon seems to have been in the West the whole time until he challenged Maegor at the Gods Eye, and Quicksilver would have been with Aenys and Alyssa on Dragonstone, I assume - such a scenario is quite likely.

We also don't know for a certainly that Viserys did not have a dragon. He could have had one, and Maegor could have killed it when he took the boy hostage. Or Viserys was the first rider of Vermithor, allowing Jaehaerys to claim the dragon after his brother's death. If we assume that Maegor kept Viserys' dragon with Visenya on Dragonstone, I could easily see Alyssa taking Vermithor with her and her children when she escaped, intending to reunite Viserys with his dragon as soon as possible (which was then cut short by Viserys' death, and enabled Jaehaerys to claim Vermithor).

TWoIaF stated that Vermithor was the eldest dragon after Balerion and Vhagar during Jaehaerys' reign, suggesting that Dreamfyre was younger - which means Rhaena must have gotten that dragon rather late. I imagine Maegor allowed her to bond with a bigger riderless dragon following his marriage to her in 47 AC, as he had lost Vhagar as a weapon following Visenya's death. He probably thought she would pose no threat to him and Balerion on a smaller dragon, and hoped she would remain loyal to him as he had named her daughter Aerea his heir.

As to the children of Jaehaerys and Alysanne:

I think we can be reasonably sure that Vaegon, Maegelle, Saera, and Gael never became dragonriders - either because there was a shortage of eggs, or because their dragons died early, or because their parents did not want to make too many dragonriders. We cannot make the same claim about Alyssa, Aemon, Baelon, Daella, and Viserra. We don't know if they rode dragons who did not live into the reign of Viserys I (or were not mentioned in TRP due to the fact that the story was edited down), or if they rode older dragons that eventually passed down to other riders (Balerion, Vhagar, Dreamfyre, Meleys, Caraxes).

[Jaak]

Jaak,

well, there would have been dragonlord families who controlled much more dragons than the Targaryens when Aenar left, as George has already confirmed that the Targaryens were not amongst the more powerful dragonlord families. And we know from Yandel that one dragonlord family alone called the shots in Valyria at times, suggesting that they would have to have been both numerous and capable of controlling as many dragons as possible.

How does it follow?

Targaryens were certainly not amongst the bigger dragonlord families in terms of dragon count. During the conquest of Rhoyne, Valyrians deployed 300 dragons - not counting the dragons left behind in Valyria, or the nonridable ones. With the 40 dragonlord families, the average would have been 7 and a half deployed on Rhoyne. Probably even bigger number before Fall. Whereas Targaryens at Exile had 5 dragons total, ridable or nonridable, and they were not leaving any behind at Valyria.

I was arguing in favor of the dragonlords wanting to be able to conceive as many potential dragonlords as possible. I never said that all those potential dragonlords would have become dragonlords - they wouldn't, if there was a shortage in dragons.

As to the point about the dragonlord kin in Volantis: I doubt that a dragonless potential dragonlord would just because of that fact fall from grace and end up becoming an adventurer/merchant whatever. We know that Viserys I remained the head of a family of dragonriders without being a dragonrider himself, and the same could work in Valyria, especially as a dragonless potential dragonlord would still have the necessary gene to conceive other potential dragonlords if married to another close relative.

Yes. But at some point as the dragonless family members build up, the family needs somewhere to dump them. It would make sense for such dragonless scions to make careers where these are available, rather than stay at Valyria mooching off the family. And it also makes sense for such cadets to receive continued support from their kin back in Valyria, like money to buy estates and palaces in Volantis and help of dragons if needed, rather than be cut off to thrive or fail and be enslaved for debt.

And it would have been these dragonless cadets who left Valyria - not dragonriders. At Doom, 300+ dragons existed in Valyria, but the ones outside were 1 at Qohor, a few at Lys and Tyrosh - none of them settled there - and the 5 at Dragonstone were the only dragons settled out of Valyria.

I think we have to imagine the forty dragonlord families as large clans - despite the incest - with various branches.

Yes, and this creates the issue of clan structure.

We are told Valyrians preferred brother-sister marriages over cousind

Why?

Aenar´s children and grandchildren were brother-sister couples. Yet Aenar had come with "siblings". The descendants of Aenar´s siblings would have been first cousins for Gaemon and Daenys, second cousins for Aegon and Elaena, third cousins for Maegon and Aerys. In a clan too big to man/woman all dragons with children of one married couple, marrying cousins would keep the family relationship between the branches, which otherwise would get remote with time.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Lord Varys, Jaak - great discussion!

On the number of Targ dragons at exile: the average number of dragons isn't conclusive because the number of dragons each family holds could be hugely different (eg many of the 40 families with just 1 dragon, because 2 or 3 families have dozens or hundreds). We also don't know how many of the total number of dragons available were sent against the Rhoynar, so 300 could be just a tiny fraction (meaning the Targ 5 would be an even less impressive number, as a proportion of the total). Given what we know of Valyrian politics, no dragonlord family would leave itself defenceless in Valyria - and indeed, protecting the home turf against other dragonlord families may have been more important than any individual conquest, so there may have been more dragons left in Valyria than were sent against the Rhoyne (giving at least 600 dragons at the time of the Rhoynar conquest). But again there's just so much room to speculate on the total number of dragons, it's hard to rely on it.

In terms of how the post-Conquest Targs managed their children, it's important to remember that the motivations in Valyria were very different than the motivations in Westeros:

(1) In Valyria, you would want more dragonriders in your family, to deploy and protect against other families that have dragons. There's probably a maximum number though, above which the family might start to splinter into factions, undermining its position. But with 40 families, that number would be quite high: there's lots of external enemies for everyone to focus on, keeping even a larger family tightly knit.

(2) in Westeros - there are no other dragonlord families. The maximum number of dragonriders is much, much lower, because there's simply not enough work for all of them! "Work" meaning being employed against other dragonlord families. That means that the potential for your own family to splinter into factions is much larger (who do you fight if no one but you and your cousins have dragons?). So the post-Conquest Targs would have had a much more difficult time balancing: (i) continuation of the family line (which usually requires an heir and a spare, so at least two sons and two daughters), against (ii) ensuring you don't end up with family factions that *will* turn on each other much more quickly than would have been the case in Valyria (hello Dance).

So the safest option is to have lots of kids, but only give dragons to two sets of brothers and sisters. Then have them marry each other, and that's your dragonriding heir and spare, and their dragonriding wives (high odds of dragonriding grandkids). Ideally, keep all the other kids on standby if something happens to the chosen kids: give them to the Faith or the Citadel or whatever; if needed to become dragonriders, there's no vow that can't be undone. This is largely what Jaehaerys and Alysanne did.

That still leaves a question of what to do when both the heir and the spare lines continue... In Westeros, the Targs would have needed to bring them back together by intermarriage, but there was never really much chance to test that - the Targs have a great knack for getting themselves pruned out of he family tree.

[Jaak]

(1) In Valyria, you would want more dragonriders in your family, to deploy and protect against other families that have dragons. There's probably a maximum number though, above which the family might start to splinter into factions, undermining its position. But with 40 families, that number would be quite high: there's lots of external enemies for everyone to focus on, keeping even a larger family tightly knit.

Was there any other limit on the number of dragons a dragonlord family could ride? Like the size of their estates and the number of dragons they could support?

Also: with 40 families, it would be hard to rule Valyria without being able to make alliances outside the family.

(2) in Westeros - there are no other dragonlord families. The maximum number of dragonriders is much, much lower, because there's simply not enough work for all of them! "Work" meaning being employed against other dragonlord families. That means that the potential for your own family to splinter into factions is much larger (who do you fight if no one but you and your cousins have dragons?). So the post-Conquest Targs would have had a much more difficult time balancing: (i) continuation of the family line (which usually requires an heir and a spare, so at least two sons and two daughters), against (ii) ensuring you don't end up with family factions that *will* turn on each other much more quickly than would have been the case in Valyria (hello Dance).

2-3 dragons was clearly not enough, though. When Aegon lost Meraxes and Rhaenys, it was a disaster and he ended up folding - compare with Garin who managed to kill 2 dragons out of 3, and got avenged by 300. And Maegor/Visenya had serious trouble against the Faith rebellion.

And there is Essos - Braavos and Volantis, etc.

What Targaryens needed was viable way to make provision for dragonriding cadets. And in this, they seem to have failed.

So the safest option is to have lots of kids, but only give dragons to two sets of brothers and sisters. Then have them marry each other, and that's your dragonriding heir and spare, and their dragonriding wives (high odds of dragonriding grandkids). Ideally, keep all the other kids on standby if something happens to the chosen kids: give them to the Faith or the Citadel or whatever; if needed to become dragonriders, there's no vow that can't be undone.

And do Faith vows even mention dragons? Of course, they do mention fighting, and marriage.

Neither Citadel nor Faith existed in Westeros.

This is largely what Jaehaerys and Alysanne did.

That still leaves a question of what to do when both the heir and the spare lines continue... In Westeros, the Targs would have needed to bring them back together by intermarriage, but there was never really much chance to test that - the Targs have a great knack for getting themselves pruned out of he family tree.

There was a very obvious test chance with Rhaenys and Viserys.