Greek elections 2015’s version.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Since at 25^th of January the greek people are going to vote for their new government I thought that we might need a thread for it.

The *biggest* political parties are: Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), New Democracy (ND), Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), Golden Dawn, Independent Greeks (ANEL), Communist Party of Greece (KKE), Democratic Left (DIMAR) with "Ecologist Greens", The River, Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) and the political party that it was created in 2 January 2015 by George Papandreou, former Prime Minister, Movement of Democratic Socialists (To Kinima)

According to latest polls (they can be found here http://www.dikaiologitika.gr/eidhseis/ekloges-2015/48776/ti-deixnoun-oi-teleftaies-dimoskopiseis-gia-tis-ekloges-2015)

SYRIZA is first with 29,6%-35%

ND is second with 20.3%-30%

And then the rest are:

Golden Dawn (6.8%-4.4), PASOK (5.5%-3.3%), KKE (6%-4.3%), the River (7%-5.1%), DIMAR and Ecologist Greens (1%), LAOS (1.2%-1.3%), to Kinima (1.4%-3%), ANEL (2.2%-3.8)

I think that I haven’t make any mistake at the quotas.

[DJDonegal]

Could be seismic if people don't turn away from what the polls are indicating at the last minute. It can be very hard for people to take that step into the unknown.

But even if Syriza manage to get the most votes, and the 50 seat bonus that comes with it, and manage to get 150 (majority), they are not a completely united party and could struggle amongst themselves between the extreme and the more moderate elements.

[mashiara]

Meh. Every time in the past I voted for someone I believed in, or had hope in. I considered voting an obligation and a privilege and never even thought about abstaining. Now, one day to voting day and I still don't know for sure who I'll cast my ballot for. Nobody inspires trust, or hope, or anything at all. There's nobody I want to vote for, rather several parties that I won't support. This is the wrong attitude to take when you're thinking of the future of your country, but that's all I got.

So, meh. Politics used to be a passion and now I get nothing but apathy when I think about it. The past few years just ruined everything. I know these elections are critical and people are giving us doomsday scenarios (again!) but meh! is all I can say right now.

[Spring Bass]

If Syriza can get their majority and actually hold it together, it's basically Win-Win for them in negotiating with the EU over debt:

1. If they demand a reduction in debt and the EU complies, then they've got that and can possibly end austerity (or at least ameliorate it). Of course, that just puts them back in the same place they were when they joined the Eurozone.

2. If they demand a reduction in debt and the EU refuses, forcing a Grexit, then they weather the capital flight and deflate the New Drachma like crazy to get back into prosperity. That will suck in the short term, but they were probably going to have to do that anyways unless they wanted to sit through another five years of austerity, especially with Germany and France now in economic weakness.

That said, they're bound to disappoint in terms of governance and passing anti-austerity programs. I'd expect them to be knocked back down again at the next election if Greece is doing a lot better.

[kiko]

Looks like SYRIZA did it. Not sure that I feel enthusiastic about some of the things they plan to do. At least there is the chance of someone doing something.

I don't see that happening with the other bunch of corrupt politicians.

[The Iceman of the North]

Looks like SYRIZA did it. Not sure that I feel enthusiastic about some of the things they plan to do. At least there is the chance of someone doing something.

I don't see that happening with the other bunch of corrupt politicians.

Let's see if they can manage a majority alone in the Parliament. Not sure if we know for certain until tomorrow morning.

[dalThor]

Latest, as in two minutes ago, predicts SYRIZA to get exactly 150 seats out of the 300 seat parliament.

What I find deeply disturbing is that Golden Dawn, the neo-Nazis, look as though they'll take third place after the departing former ruling party, New Democracy.

[The Marquis de Leech]

Weathering a Grexit will be the tough one, and Syriza's "we can have our cake and eat it too" will come back to bite them, but forcing a confrontation with the Forces of Austerity can only be a good thing.

[The Marquis de Leech]

What I find deeply disturbing is that Golden Dawn, the neo-Nazis, look as though they'll take third place after the departing former ruling party, New Democracy.

That's what happens when you subject a country to back-breaking austerity. Sadly, Germany chooses to remember 1923, rather than 1931.

[The Iceman of the North]

Greece have definitely moved left.

[arya_underfoot]

Someone who is more economically literate than me, please explain this to me. Apparently, Tsipras is planning to reverse austerity, write off Greek's enormous debt and reinstitute pensions and public sector wages (presumably to pre-austerity levels). The idiots that lent money to Greece in the first place will presumably have their losses borne by the taxpayers in their respective countries (France and Germany predominantly I believe). But who will lend money to Greece again for them to spend on exorbitant pensions and public wages/benefits?

[The Iceman of the North]

Someone who is more economically literate than me, please explain this to me. Apparently, Tsipras is planning to reverse austerity, write off Greek's enormous debt and reinstitute pensions and public sector wages (presumably to pre-austerity levels). The idiots that lent money to Greece in the first place will presumably have their losses borne by the taxpayers in their respective countries (France and Germany predominantly I believe). But who will lend money to Greece again for them to spend on exorbitant pensions and public wages/benefits?

They can probably balance the budget somewhat by cutting spending on arming their military against their ally in the east, or curbing corruption. If it's enough is another matter.

[arya_underfoot]

They can probably balance the budget somewhat by cutting spending on arming their military against their ally in the east, or curbing corruption. If it's enough is another matter.

(emphasis mine)

Love the optimism! It would solve so many problems in the world today.

[The Marquis de Leech]

Someone who is more economically literate than me, please explain this to me. Apparently, Tsipras is planning to reverse austerity, write off Greek's enormous debt and reinstitute pensions and public sector wages (presumably to pre-austerity levels). The idiots that lent money to Greece in the first place will presumably have their losses borne by the taxpayers in their respective countries (France and Germany predominantly I believe). But who will lend money to Greece again for them to spend on exorbitant pensions and public wages/benefits?

One of two things happens here:

- Germany et al ultimately decide that the Euro project must be saved at all costs. Greece is allowed to tear up the bailout terms, with perhaps a figleaf or two for German domestic consumption. Long term, Greece would be the recipient of transfer payments from the European core: Germany would have to send money to the periphery permanently, rather like how New York sends money to Mississippi.

- Germany tells Greece to get stuffed, and pulls the funding. Greece defaults, and leaves the Euro. Greece (painfully) regains competitiveness via a massive devaluation, while Germany and France have the fun of bailing their banks out yet again.

[DJDonegal]

I wish more of the coverage of the Greek results would highlight that you get a 50 seat "bonus" if you get the most votes. Just saying to outsiders that Syriza got 149 seats with New Democracy on 76 makes it look like it has been a monumental shift in the Greek vote base.

But really it's 99-76. Which on such small numbers is still a rather large shift; just misleading to outsiders to provide the other figures.

Interesting that the Independent Greeks (right-wing) have stepped in to form an anti-austerity coalition with Syriza (left-wing), or did native Greeks see that one as a likely outcome should Syriza have fallen short of 150?

[The Iceman of the North]

Seem simply like a compromise between first-past-the-post and proportional.

I recently saw a poll giving all but a handful of Scottish Westminster MPs to SNP, a tenfold increase in seats, based on a shift of just a few percentage points.

[kiko]

Great! Looks as if the nationalists and the socialists go together. Sounds very promising.

[DJDonegal]

Seem simply like a compromise between first-past-the-post and proportional.

I recently saw a poll giving all but a handful of Scottish Westminster MPs to SNP, a tenfold increase in seats, based on a shift of just a few percentage points.

Yes, but that's a bit of an alien system as far as I'm aware. I bet both David Cameron and Ed Miliband would love a 50 seat bonus for getting the largest share of votes in the next election. My complaint is with the coverage; I've heard only one off-hand comment referencing it otherwise I would not even know about that function myself.

Regarding SNP... The reason it takes only a shift of a few percentage points is because they operate in such a small area of the UK. They've actually surged (when looking at Scotland only) from getting 20% in 2010 to polling at 54% now, which is a large increase and explains the poll prediction you saw recently.

Nationwide they've only moved from about 2% to 5%, but they don't stand candidates nationwide.

[paddington]

One of two things happens here:

- Germany et al ultimately decide that the Euro project must be saved at all costs. Greece is allowed to tear up the bailout terms, with perhaps a figleaf or two for German domestic consumption. Long term, Greece would be the recipient of transfer payments from the European core: Germany would have to send money to the periphery permanently, rather like how New York sends money to Mississippi.

- Germany tells Greece to get stuffed, and pulls the funding. Greece defaults, and leaves the Euro. Greece (painfully) regains competitiveness via a massive devaluation, while Germany and France have the fun of bailing their banks out yet again.

Germany isn't going to like ethier of those, transfer money to Greece or bail out the banks.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

RBPL,

I worry for the people of Greece and what will happen based upon this outcome (particularly my friends living there) but from a purely bystander sense it will be interesting to see what happens. Hopefully, whatever does happen will be with an absolute minimum of disruption for the people of Greece.