NFL Suberb Owl: Evil Empire vs Legion of Boom

[grozeng]

I don't think I've ever said the Pats shouldn't be punished. As I said before, I think they presented some under-inflated balls to the refs, and the refs fucked up the inspection. I think the refs should have tested the balls properly, re-inflated the balls to spec, and warned the Patriots about this kind of shenanigans.

Since the refs couldn't handle that simple job, I think the league should have finished their investigation and handed out fines, larger than whatever they're going to bill Marshawn Lynch for his hat, within 48 hours of the game. Instead they let this drag on for too long, let every dipshit in the league office leak whatever inaccurate or overblown reports they wanted, and let one of their Super Bowl teams twist in the wind for two weeks. Way to run a tight ship, Goodell.

Exactly. I was quoting you about Bettis testing the balls and commenting Brees could tell the exact pressure by feel on Conan. I am sure Brady can do the same thing.

Rock had posted there is no proof the Pats did anything wrong. He then says they may have given the refs under inflated balls. That is something wrong. It's against the rules. They got caught with under inflated balls. Sure more teams do it and Rodgers admitted to it. But they were not caught.

But I agree. Just fine them some symbolic amount and put it behind you and focus on the league's biggest game of the year.

And Seattle 28 - Pats 17. Why, because I got the wonderful 8 for Seattle and 7 for NE in my box pool

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Close, low scoring defensive battle, with the Seachickens on top at the end. 23-16 Chickens.

[Red Tiger]

23-17 Seahawks

[Biter]

I've changed my mind, Patriots 24-21.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Drew Magary (formerly of Kissing Suzy Kolber) writes a guide as to why you cannot root for the Patriots in his latest Deadspin column...

So I’m here to re-emphasize the obvious: do not root for the Patriots. Fuck the Patriots. Fuck them to hell.

As bad as the Ballghazi truthers are, I assure you that Boston sports fans remain a thousand times worse by comparison. Consider everything they get if the Patriots win on Sunday:

• A fourth ring.
  
• A fourth title for Brady, tying him with Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and making him arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. (He probably already is; pretty impressive given that he had to suffer the hardship of having three older sisters.)
  
• A fourth title for Belichick, making him the greatest coach of all time. (He definitely already is.)
  
• A hand-written, publicly distributed apology by Roger Goodell to Robert Kraft, written on a scroll by a professional calligrapher.
  
• Exclusive yearlong rights to the word “Dynasty,” which is one of the most annoying fucking words in sports. “Hey, this team won a lot of titles. ARE THEY A DYNASTY?!” That word is the collective equivalent of “Elite”. It doesn’t mean a fucking thing. If you win four titles in 15 years, you are really good, and that should be good enough. You shouldn’t need extra validation in the form of linguistic titles.
  

I don’t want Pats fans to have any of that. And I definitely don’t want them to cloak four Super Bowl titles in their unique brand of triumphant self-loathing. These assholes already have three rings, and they STILL want your pity for having to root for the Pats back when they were old and shitty. Look at the endless, terrible schlongread about Brady from the New York Times this week:

Shut up. OH THIS WINNING IS STILL SO WEIRD AND STRANGE TO ME BECAUSE WE HAD IT SO BAD BEFORE BRADY ARRIVED. No. Sorry. Your ascension to dynasty status cancels out any past miseries. You don’t get to have both. That’s not how sports works. Every title is not a chance for you to tell me the story of your sports life. You did not spring from humble beginnings, you moody fucks.

Their teams were mostly bad, their owner was an embarrassment, their stadium a dump. Yet the Patriots always retained a lovable haplessness about them… Since then, the Patriots have achieved the highest winning percentage in American professional sports, ahead of even the N.B.A.’s San Antonio Spurs. Admittedly, it felt slightly unnatural — un-Patriot-like — to identify with what became such a ruthless and efficient machine.

Ballghazi has given Patriots fans everything they could possibly want. They get a chance at winning a fourth championship and all the bragging rights that entails, but they still get to BITCH. They can bitch that they don’t get to fully enjoy their newfound largesse because people will think they cheated. They can bitch about being the victims of a witch hunt. They can bitch about HATERZZZ trying to bring them down because other fans are just BUTTHURT that Boston gets to be Titledouche, USA. They can bitch that this scandal will tarnish all of their bar arguments. They can bitch and bitch and bitch and bitch because Boston fans love nothing more than to use sports as a way of airing their endless grievances.

And they’ll never stop. They could win 10 titles in a row in all four sports and I promise you… the flood of pissing and moaning would never cease. I know the Seahawks have their own unappealing qualities (Macklemore), but I promise you: if Seattle wins, it’s for the best. I would prefer to live in a future universe where Brady and Belichick have lost three Super Bowls and inspire 5,000 “tarnished legacy” takes.

Entire column here: http://deadspin.com/do-not-root-for-the-goddamn-patriots-1682270571

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

And the Packers finally found their sacrificial lamb...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12255581/green-bay-packers-fire-special-teams-coordinator-shawn-slocum

[lancerman]

Drew Magary (formerly of Kissing Suzy Kolber) writes a guide as to why you cannot root for the Patriots in his latest Deadspin column...

So I’m here to re-emphasize the obvious: do not root for the Patriots. Fuck the Patriots. Fuck them to hell.

As bad as the Ballghazi truthers are, I assure you that Boston sports fans remain a thousand times worse by comparison. Consider everything they get if the Patriots win on Sunday:

• A fourth ring.
• A fourth title for Brady, tying him with Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and making him arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. (He probably already is; pretty impressive given that he had to suffer the hardship of having three older sisters.)
• A fourth title for Belichick, making him the greatest coach of all time. (He definitely already is.)
• A hand-written, publicly distributed apology by Roger Goodell to Robert Kraft, written on a scroll by a professional calligrapher.
• Exclusive yearlong rights to the word “Dynasty,” which is one of the most annoying fucking words in sports. “Hey, this team won a lot of titles. ARE THEY A DYNASTY?!” That word is the collective equivalent of “Elite”. It doesn’t mean a fucking thing. If you win four titles in 15 years, you are really good, and that should be good enough. You shouldn’t need extra validation in the form of linguistic titles.

I don’t want Pats fans to have any of that. And I definitely don’t want them to cloak four Super Bowl titles in their unique brand of triumphant self-loathing. These assholes already have three rings, and they STILL want your pity for having to root for the Pats back when they were old and shitty. Look at the endless, terrible schlongread about Brady from the New York Times this week:

Shut up. OH THIS WINNING IS STILL SO WEIRD AND STRANGE TO ME BECAUSE WE HAD IT SO BAD BEFORE BRADY ARRIVED. No. Sorry. Your ascension to dynasty status cancels out any past miseries. You don’t get to have both. That’s not how sports works. Every title is not a chance for you to tell me the story of your sports life. You did not spring from humble beginnings, you moody fucks.

Their teams were mostly bad, their owner was an embarrassment, their stadium a dump. Yet the Patriots always retained a lovable haplessness about them… Since then, the Patriots have achieved the highest winning percentage in American professional sports, ahead of even the N.B.A.’s San Antonio Spurs. Admittedly, it felt slightly unnatural — un-Patriot-like — to identify with what became such a ruthless and efficient machine.

Ballghazi has given Patriots fans everything they could possibly want. They get a chance at winning a fourth championship and all the bragging rights that entails, but they still get to BITCH. They can bitch that they don’t get to fully enjoy their newfound largesse because people will think they cheated. They can bitch about being the victims of a witch hunt. They can bitch about HATERZZZ trying to bring them down because other fans are just BUTTHURT that Boston gets to be Titledouche, USA. They can bitch that this scandal will tarnish all of their bar arguments. They can bitch and bitch and bitch and bitch because Boston fans love nothing more than to use sports as a way of airing their endless grievances.

And they’ll never stop. They could win 10 titles in a row in all four sports and I promise you… the flood of pissing and moaning would never cease. I know the Seahawks have their own unappealing qualities (Macklemore), but I promise you: if Seattle wins, it’s for the best. I would prefer to live in a future universe where Brady and Belichick have lost three Super Bowls and inspire 5,000 “tarnished legacy” takes.

Entire column here: http://deadspin.com/do-not-root-for-the-goddamn-patriots-1682270571

For all the complaining about whining and bitching this is the whiniest and bitchiest article I've seen about the game. But I do appreciate the irony and lack of self awareness of an article that spends it's entire bashing Boston area fans for having a chip on their shoulder while simultaneously arguing why their team is so "evil

[lancerman]

And the Packers finally found their sacrificial lamb...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12255581/green-bay-packers-fire-special-teams-coordinator-shawn-slocum

Maybe they should fire McCarthy for not having the balls to go for it once on the one inch line, or electing to get stuffed on the run while Seattle was taken time outs in 4th quarter with 5 minutes left after a key interception. One first down wins them the game at that point. Or how about they fire the guy that jumped in front of Jordy on that onside kick,, who undoubtedly completely went against everything that special teams coach ever instructed him to do in that situation.

That's such a crap firing.

[Rockroi]

When the Pats were last in the Superbowl (2011) I knew they would lose. The Giants D was just too good and the Pats D was just just awful. I said that I wanted the Pats to win 24-20 but that in reality I was certain it would go the other way. Not only did I predict the winner correctly, I actually ended up picking Bradys stat line within one yard.

This is the most healthy the Pats have been going into a Superbowl since 2003 (2004- lost Ty Law; 2007- Brady had a calf injury, lost Roosevelt Colvin and Sammy Morris during the season; 2011 - Gronk was 50% if that). Its the best defense the Pats have had since 2004; Pats have Hightower and Collins playing like 10 year vets at LB; Wilfork is a house, and then there is the whole Revis thing. On offense, its about as good as you could hope for at this point- they can dedicate to the run and the pass and go back and forth on that. They dominate the middle of the field on the pass, can go deep-ish and have great YAC plays. Blount can run and in a pinch so can Gray and Vareen.

But another way to say that is this: the Pats do a lot of things very well, but are not great at anything.

Seattle is great on D. They can stop the run and kill the pass (ranked #2 and #3 in Defensive DVOA against each; ranked #1 in Overall Defensive DVOA). That whole team plays hard, are about as fast as any D I have ever seen; Lynch really is a beast, Russell Wilson gets better as the game moves on and their O-line is as healthy its been all season. The 2014 Seahawks are easily the best team the Pats have played in the Superbowl since 2001.

But much like those Giants games this one comes down to match-ups.

The Pats have the personnel to stop Lynch; they play well against power-rush teams and Wilfork et al can and will clog up those lanes. I dont think they are going to sack Wilson that much; I predict they sack him twice and when you consider hes been sacked 7 times in two games, thats not a lot. The Pats D-Ends have been drilled to stay on the edge, and force Wilson to stay in the pocket and/or run between the hashes where the clog of bodies will be greatest and where the athleticism of Collins and Hightower can get him. Wilson can throw on the run, and the Pats are only meh at covering tight ends, but with the D-backs playing the way they have, they can hold that part of the game in check. Browner will get at least one D-PI flag, but he and Revis are more than capable of holding down the Seattle WRs none of whom are as good as Torrey Smith, Steve Smith Jr., or T.Y. Hilton.

Seattle can get Kearse involved enough and Wilson will break one or two, but their points will be at a trickle.

The Patriots can and will exploit the middle of the field and watch for the breakdowns to come on the Seattle DBs responsible for coverage against Vareen, Wright, and especially Gronk who Settle will struggle to cover; they will try to bully Gronk coming off the line, but that's only going to go so far. The Pats are also going to find places to run- the Seattle front-7 are not as good as they were last season and not as big. If the Pats can grind out some yards inside the tackles it will do them wonders late in the game if they are protecting lead something they failed to do in 2011.

I am a little bit concerned with Brady. He just had two back-to-back mega playoff games maybe the two best back-to-back playoff games of his career. But he has screwed up several times and he started off the 2011 SB with a safety due to a terrible intentional grounding play by him. But his more recent play has been troubling. Brady has highly random and dubious bouts of inaccuracy and and he may not be able to throw deep any more.

But most troubling would be this: Setting aside the meaningless game v. the Bills in week 17 , Brady has thrown at least one pick in every game since Week 9 v. the Broncos. That would be bad enough, but in games v. SD, GB, Baltimore and Indy TWICE, Brady has thrown an INT at the end of the second quarter and in all those games it lead to point by the opposing team and on at least one occasion a completely media-driven scandal.

Thats exactly the kind of play he cannot make in the SB; if Brady throws a pick its the play Seattle can exploit for points and considering that O is not doing that well, that is how the D can keep Seattle in this game.

But thats why the Pats should keep the passes short -ish.

The Pats should be able to pass on Seattle and they may be able to ruin a little; if they do that Seattle will be playing from behind. Once that happens, if the Pats can truly take Lynch away (still a sizable if) Wilson will have to make plays while moving in that pocket, and there Wilson should make a few mistakes of his own. And the Pats will do more with 2 turnovers than McCarthy did with their 5. Pats will force a few 3rd and prevent conversions (something the Pats are light-years better at now than in 2011 when they were DEAD LAST in preventing 3rd down conversions). With that the short passes and run can salt the game away, even taking into consideration some really good Seattle D and one Brady INT which you can all but bank on. I see Brady having a sturdy, Brady-like day, 22 for 35, 288 yards 3TDs and 1 INT.

The Pats should have a two-score lead at some point in the 4th quarter and they will stone Seattle on one drive, give up a score on the other and then hold onto the ball for long enough to deprive Wilson of another miracle.

Or Sherman picks off Brady 4 times.

Patriots 24 Seahawks 20

I hope everyone enjoys the game. Should be a good one.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

For all the complaining about whining and bitching this is the whiniest and bitchiest article I've seen about the game. But I do appreciate the irony and lack of self awareness of an article that spends it's entire bashing Boston area fans for having a chip on their shoulder while simultaneously arguing why their team is so "evil

Drew Magary is a hater. That's his entire schtick. Don't take it personally and enjoy it.

[Red Tiger]

I've changed my mind, Patriots 24-21.

Why?

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

For all the complaining about whining and bitching this is the whiniest and bitchiest article I've seen about the game. But I do appreciate the irony and lack of self awareness of an article that spends it's entire bashing Boston area fans for having a chip on their shoulder while simultaneously arguing why their team is so "evil

Eh, give him a break. He's a Vikes fan. :lol:

[trickster]

I am predicting a comfortable win for the Seahawks, probably by two scores. Gronk will be neutralised by Chancellor/Wagner. The secondary will bottle up the receivers and the DL will go after Brady. I will be surprised if NE scores more than 17 points. Seattle will get a couple of short fields on the offense and final score Seattle 27 NE 17.

[Reny of Storms End]

Do people actually think the Edelman TD pass was some sort of revolutionary play by Belichek and the Pats? Cause I keep seeing random mentions of it, like it was the first WR pass in history. Usually it's along the lines of "what crazy new trick will Belichek whip out after the ineligible/eligible receiver ploy and the Edelman TD". Or are people just talking about it in terms of it being new for the Patriots?

[Rockroi]

I am predicting a comfortable win for the Seahawks, probably by two scores. Gronk will be neutralised by Chancellor/Wagner. The secondary will bottle up the receivers and the DL will go after Brady. I will be surprised if NE scores more than 17 points. Seattle will get a couple of short fields on the offense and final score Seattle 27 NE 17.

Yeah. Historically speaking , great defenses don't lose Superbowls.

Here are Superbowl match ups by Weighted Defensive DVOA rank (winner in bold)

2014: New England (11) v. Seattle (1)

2013: Seattle (1) v. Denver (15)

2012: SF (4) v. Balt (22)

2011: NYG (22) v. NE (28 ... not a misprint)

2010: GB (2) v Pit (1)

2009: NO (23) v. Indy (19 - but remember everyone, Manning only loses because of defense- even when he has the better one- The Narrative, people! THE NARRATIVE!!!)

2008: Pit (1) v. Arizona (23)

2007: NYG (11) v. NE (19)

2006: Indy (24) v. Chi (2)

2005: Sea (17) v. Pitt (4)

2004: NE (7) v Phi (13)

2003: NE (2) v. Car (11)

2002: TB (1) v. Oak (8 ... fuck me... their D was that good?)

2001: NE (13) v. St.L (4... I shit you not- that was their D)

Okay so lets crunch some numbers:

-Teams with the "better" Weighted Defensive DVOA rating is 8-5.

-The 5 losses are sort of helpful, sort of not.

• 2012, a red-hot Ravens team (powered by dear antler spray and heart) pulled out a squeaker against a better D'd 49'ers team.

2010, the two best defenses played each other and its not really telling that #2 beat #1

2009: New Orleans and Indy were only separated by 4 positions, so not that great a swing here. Also, great Special Teams play and Manning-Face helped.

2006: The Bears are destroyed by the absolute necessity of the Manning winning a Super Bowl the Colts. The #2 Defense in the league lost because, well... their QB was Rex Grossman. So, if Wilson turns into the Sex CAnnont... fine, I guess.

2001: Its largely considered the greatest upset in SB history so... yeah... that's not going to happen so...

-The #1 Weighted Defensive DVOA team has been to the SB 4 times since 2001 (tomorrow will be the fifth); they are 3-1 and that only loss, 2010 was to the #2 Defense.

This year around, the Pats' offense is, technically, better than the Seahawks' O, but only barely. Pats were ranked 4th in Weighted Offense; Seattle was 5th. You won't find any games above where that difference was any closer than 1 spot.

The few match-ups that look similar were 2012, 2006 and 2001. The problem there is that Marshawn Lynch is better than almost every offensive player on all those teams, save 2001 Tom Brady, but remember- that was before "Brady" was "Brady." That 2006 match-up is tantalizing to imagine, but ... here:

2015 R. Wilson 285 for 452 (63.0%) 3,475 yards (7.69 Y/A) 20 Tds 7 INTs, 95.0 P. Rat , ranked 14 in Football Outsiders QBR

2006 R. Gross 262 for 480 (54.5%) 3,193 yards (6.65 Y/A) 23 Tds 20 INTs, 73.9 P. Rat, ranked 29 in Football Outsiders QBR (below such luminaries as J.P. Lossman and David Carr).

Russell Wilson may not be the next Tom Brady, but he certainly isn't the next Rex Grossman either.

The 2012 Bowl is instructive- very surgical QB, well coached team with a rising defense, veteran Secondary v. mobile QB and crushing D. Kaep actually had a great season according to DVOA - he was ranked 3rd in QBR; SF was actually ranked 7th in Weighted Offensive DVOA and Balt was ranked 16. But I think that game SF was just out-coached and Carroll is better than that Harbaugh. And, again- SF had nothing resembling Lynch on their team. If there is one model the Pats may be able to work from to envision a path to victory, its this game.

So... who wants to cut the lights in Zona?

ETA:

Do people actually think the Edelman TD pass was some sort of revolutionary play by Belichek and the Pats? Cause I keep seeing random mentions of it, like it was the first WR pass in history. Usually it's along the lines of "what crazy new trick will Belichek whip out after the ineligible/eligible receiver ploy and the Edelman TD". Or are people just talking about it in terms of it being new for the Patriots?

Its Saturday evening before the game; the media has, almost literally, run out of shit to talk about. That's all that is.

[Red Tiger]

• 2006: The Bears are destroyed by the absolute necessity of the Manning winning a Super Bowl the Colts. The #2 Defense in the league lost because, well... their QB was Rex Grossman. So, if Wilson turns into the Sex CAnnont... fine, I guess.

You are forgetting something

Its true that the Colts defense sucked in the regular season, but that is because Bob Sanders was out for most of it. When Sanders returned it was a completely different unit, physical, tough, punishing.

[Rockroi]

You are forgetting something

Its true that the Colts defense sucked in the regular season, but that is because Bob Sanders was out for most of it. When Sanders returned it was a completely different unit, physical, tough, punishing.

Very, very true. It doesn't really change my analysis, but the point is well made.

[Reny of Storms End]

I really hope the Bus makes it into the hall this year. I have never been to Canton myself, but I've always said I'll be there for his induction. Only a couple more hours to wait.

[Red Tiger]

I say it's Junior Seau, Marvin Harrison, Orlando Pace, Kurt Warner, Tony Dungy

[Reny of Storms End]

I can't find any other evidence of it, but as I was watching Virginia vs Duke it flashed across the screen that Bettis was elected to the Hall. That's awesome.