What will be Bronze Yohn's next move?

[Lord Rupert Connington]

Since Littlefinger believes that only Bronze Yohn will continue opposing him while he's Lord Protector, what plans will Yohn be formulating to get Baelish out? I believe that there are three factors to consider.

1. Alayne Stone's true identity:

A lot of fans believe that the Lords Declarant know that Alayne is Sansa and that they are setting a trap for Baelish. What this trap involves, and what long-term goals they would hope to achieve, I have no idea.

2. Aegon's landing:

Bronze Yohn could convince the Lords Declarant to declare for Aegon since

Storm's End has been taken by the Golden Company,

and as a means for kicking out Baelish.

3. The arrival of Daenerys:

If Daenerys lands near the Vale (Saltpans or Dragonstone), and if the Vale still remains neutral at this point, then I believe that they would declare for her as she is Rhaenyra's parallel and the Vale was one of her staunchest allies. Also, dragons are a good recruiting tool.

[Ice Turtle]

It is not really my own theory but it may be that Yohn is actually cooperating with Nestor and they meant to "gently remove" Sweerobin from LFs care. This would go much easier now that he is not in Eyrie but at Bloody Gate. With Tyrells and Lannisters otherwise engaged (fighting Ironborn, Aegon, BwB but most of all each other) they can declare independence and stay so, or ally with the remains of Stark forces maybe behind Sansa or with Aegon and soon there will be also Dany. O they meant to get rid of FL quietly and remain more or less loyal to current regime.

While I am 80% sure BF is heading to the Vale I don't think he has arrived yet.

[Lion of the West]

Although I cannot claim to know what goes on in Lord Royce's head I don't think that he'll side with a Targaryen, or at least I hope he won't, because of recent history. Giving powers back to the Dragons would easily make them take revenge on the Houses that opposed thme last time, including ones that are close to Yohn, and there is still a Baratheon, Stannis, to whom people can rally. So in my mind there are 3 different options for Royce to force out Littlefinger by force of arms.

1. Attempt it himself, which is unlikely to go well.

2. Seek an alliance with Stannis for if its so that Stannis and his 20 000 sellswords will come south of the Neck than I could see that being more palatable to many Vale lords than either Lannister or Targaryen.

3. Join with either of the Targaryens, which I think would be very risky given that both of them would have reason to look on House Royce with suspecion and enemity. So its basically first fighting to put someone on the throne and then working your ass off to curry favor in order to not get this new king/queen to not punish you horribly, or others that you care about.

Granted though that I am biased since I favor Stannis for the throne.

[John Doe]

If Stannis will survive and come south with his sellswords and the remaining Starks and Tully forces I really believe Royce would bring the Vale on his side. He has no reason to trust the Lannisters (unless he will get to know Baelish was behing it he believes they killed Jon Arryn) or the Tyrells (Loras killed one of his sons) and he was one of the rebelling lords in Robert's rebellion, so I doubt he would declare for Targaryens instead. If Stannis doesn't come south though I see him alliegning himself with Aegon or Dany, I guess Dany, because 1. she might land near of the vale, 2. she might have dragons (although Aegon might have also a dragon, but still), 3. it would make sense in narratively because Aegon will probably have the support of Dorne at this point. If the Tyrells side with one Targ, I guess Royce chooses the other.

[Lee-Sensei]

@Lion of the West Why do you think he can't do it himself? If Nestor Royce is working with him he has SR in his custody now. LF's power derives from SR. Without him, LF is nothing in the Vale.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Im really hoping its confronting lyn corbray

[John Doe]

I hope Lyn Corbray will kill Littlefinger.

[Lion of the West]

@Lion of the West Why do you think he can't do it himself? If Nestor Royce is working with him he has SR in his custody now. LF's power derives from SR. Without him, LF is nothing in the Vale.

If, if, if. If Royce has the power, then I would be happy to see him kick out Littlefinger from the Vale. Or return Petyr to six feet of soil on the Fingers. But as it stands I'm afraid that I do think that Lord Royce is growing more isolated as I see him as a warrior and not a schemer who can outscheme Littlefinger.

[MyLittleFinger]

I hope Lyn Corbray will kill Littlefinger.

Why would he do that? LF basically is keeping him afloat, without the money and "boys" Corbray is one step up from a hedge knight and that step is because he has a priceless sword and reputation. No lands, no titles, his brother despises him. Why would he bite the hand that feeds? Especially when his role is so minor vs the reward. All he has to do is rattle sabres and act with irrational hatred towards him and he gets his paycheck.

[sifth]

Anyone else think it was a mistake on George's part to not at least put one Sansa chapter in A Dance with Dragons. I mean it's been nearly ten years since we read about what's going on in the Vale.

[Lee-Sensei]

@Lion of the West Not a schemer like LF, but he's not incompetent when it comes to the political game like Ned. LF respects him and sees him as a threat, and there's no definite proof that the Lords of the Vale are corrupt enough to be bought by LF.

Normally, LF is one of the best schemers in the series. I'd place him right after Varys, but LF is getting clumsy. GRRM says that he's very conflicted on Sansa. Sometimes she's nothing more than a pawn, at other times he sees her as the daughter he would have had with Cat and at other times he sees her as Cat herself. That's why he's giving up all of his schemes to impress her. That's his weakness. You'd never see Varys giving up info unnecessarily to the kids he keeps around. He rips their tongues out.:P

[Lord Too Fat]

Although I cannot claim to know what goes on in Lord Royce's head I don't think that he'll side with a Targaryen, or at least I hope he won't, because of recent history. Giving powers back to the Dragons would easily make them take revenge on the Houses that opposed thme last time, including ones that are close to Yohn,

I mean in R.R. was not Bronze Yohn chief among the lords who declared for the dragons when the vale rose against the throne? Jon Arryn had to whoop their asses at Gulltown or some shit to get them to support the rebellion.

I wouldn't be surprised if he used this fact to curry favor with a Targaryen. If he offers them the loyalty of his lords declarant, it would be imprudent for them to reprimand house Royce for past grievances. If he plays his cards right, Bronze Yohn could be warden of the east.

[Lee-Sensei]

I seriously doubt Yohn Royce rose up against Jon Arryn for killing Targaryens. It wasn't just Northmen and Rivermen that were being murdered by Aerys. The Arryn heir and a Royce were murdered too.

[MyLittleFinger]

I mean in R.R. was not Bronze Yohn chief among the lords who declared for the dragons when the vale rose against the throne? Jon Arryn had to whoop their asses at Gulltown or some shit to get them to support the rebellion.

I wouldn't be surprised if he used this fact to curry favor with a Targaryen. If he offers them the loyalty of his lords declarant, it would be imprudent for them to reprimand house Royce for past grievances. If he plays his cards right, Bronze Yohn could be warden of the east.

You're thinking of the Corbray's (or just Lyn? Unclear) and the Grafton's who were loyal mainly because Marq Grafton had been Rhaegar's squire and friend. Bronze Yohn seems pretty devoted to Jon Arryn including wanting to enter the war against the Lannisters because they "murdered" him.

[Lord Too Fat]

I seriously doubt Yohn Royce rose up against Jon Arryn for killing Targaryens. It wasn't just Northmen and Rivermen that were being murdered by Aerys. The Arryn heir and a Royce were murdered too.

Yeah, your right. just looked it up, that was house Grafton

[Summer Is Coming!]

Royce will be opposed to Littlefinger, but I think his sense of honor, recalling how he reacted to Lyn Corbray drawing his sword in AFFC, would prevent him from making overtures to work with Nestor Royce since Nestor chose to accept Littlefinger's reward. Both Nestor and Corbray are attached to Littlefinger, not little Robert, and I agree that Yohn Royce is basically being isolated. I think Littlefinger understands that Yohn Royce cannot be "bought", so he has moved to draw in each of Royce's allies.

It won't be Royce who makes a bold move against a powerful Littlefinger. Littlefinger has always exercised incredible control and restraint over his love/lust for Catelyn. If he loses that control over Sansa, that will be what causes his downfall.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Although I cannot claim to know what goes on in Lord Royce's head I don't think that he'll side with a Targaryen, or at least I hope he won't, because of recent history. Giving powers back to the Dragons would easily make them take revenge on the Houses that opposed thme last time, including ones that are close to Yohn, and there is still a Baratheon, Stannis, to whom people can rally. So in my mind there are 3 different options for Royce to force out Littlefinger by force of arms.

1. Attempt it himself, which is unlikely to go well.

2. Seek an alliance with Stannis for if its so that Stannis and his 20 000 sellswords will come south of the Neck than I could see that being more palatable to many Vale lords than either Lannister or Targaryen.

3. Join with either of the Targaryens, which I think would be very risky given that both of them would have reason to look on House Royce with suspecion and enemity. So its basically first fighting to put someone on the throne and then working your ass off to curry favor in order to not get this new king/queen to not punish you horribly, or others that you care about.

Granted though that I am biased since I favor Stannis for the throne.

For the comment about Stannis' 20,000, we should be careful about taking that too much to heart, that is still "unpublished" and subject to change, and I think it will, first of all his instructions to Massey are a little disjointed: go to Braavos and hire all the sellswords there, many of whom will be Bronn type soldiers who are decent fighters but who are not really disciplined or trained to fight in big open battles, he is then told to bring back 20,000 from the disputed lands (whether this number is on top of those from Braavos or including them isn't explained). There is then the problem that there may not be 20,000 decent sellswords in any one part of western Essos, the Golden company is gone, 1,000s are in slavers bay and there is another war in the disputed lands, basic economics dictates that the price needed to pay will be extortionate, the Iron Bank might end up doubling their 1,000,000 or so debt and probably won't be willing to do that.

Point is anywhere close to 20,000 swords for Stannis seems like a stretch, hopefully the number will be edited down to 10 or 15,000 in the published version.

[Lion of the West]

@Lion of the West Not a schemer like LF, but he's not incompetent when it comes to the political game like Ned. LF respects him and sees him as a threat, and there's no definite proof that the Lords of the Vale are corrupt enough to be bought by LF.

Normally, LF is one of the best schemers in the series. I'd place him right after Varys, but LF is getting clumsy. GRRM says that he's very conflicted on Sansa. Sometimes she's nothing more than a pawn, at other times he sees her as the daughter he would have had with Cat and at other times he sees her as Cat herself. That's why he's giving up all of his schemes to impress her. That's his weakness. You'd never see Varys giving up info unnecessarily to the kids he keeps around. He rips their tongues out. :P

Well for a start I agree that Royce don't need to be a fool like Eddard, although I'm turning around that Eddard was to stiff rather than a fool, but also that do we know how much of the political game that Royce knows? Petyr's trick with drawning swords while his guest worked wonders despite Royce being there.

I haven't heard that Littlefinger would be getting clumsy by I'm happy to hear it. The sooner he dies the better.

In regards to the lords of the Vale it seems to me that a fair few of them are corrupt enough. We've got a pedophile and a kinslayer for a start. I love the Vale lords and would like them to be chivalrous and valiant but the text so far tells me that they are not better than anyone else, and in fact almost seems a bit worse in how they are giving in to Littlefinger.

For the comment about Stannis' 20,000, we should be careful about taking that too much to heart, that is still "unpublished" and subject to change, and I think it will, first of all his instructions to Massey are a little disjointed: go to Braavos and hire all the sellswords there, many of whom will be Bronn type soldiers who are decent fighters but who are not really disciplined or trained to fight in big open battles, he is then told to bring back 20,000 from the disputed lands (whether this number is on top of those from Braavos or including them isn't explained). There is then the problem that there may not be 20,000 decent sellswords in any one part of western Essos, the Golden company is gone, 1,000s are in slavers bay and there is another war in the disputed lands, basic economics dictates that the price needed to pay will be extortionate, the Iron Bank might end up doubling their 1,000,000 or so debt and probably won't be willing to do that.

Point is anywhere close to 20,000 swords for Stannis seems like a stretch, hopefully the number will be edited down to 10 or 15,000 in the published version.

True that the numbers might be wrong but I find it hard to see that Stannis wouldn't get some kind of sellsword reinforcements from the Bravoosi gold. I wouldn't see the point of introducing this if it wasn't to make Stannis a power with an army again.

I mean in R.R. was not Bronze Yohn chief among the lords who declared for the dragons when the vale rose against the throne? Jon Arryn had to whoop their asses at Gulltown or some shit to get them to support the rebellion.

I wouldn't be surprised if he used this fact to curry favor with a Targaryen. If he offers them the loyalty of his lords declarant, it would be imprudent for them to reprimand house Royce for past grievances. If he plays his cards right, Bronze Yohn could be warden of the east.

I don't recall that Royce fought for the Dragon but that two Royces, or so, got toasted by Aerys so I would think that Yohn Royce would want vengeance as much as the Mallsters or Arryns, who also got people toasted there. The only Houses mentioned as being for the Dragon are the Corbrays and the Graftons, even if I kind of assume that there were additional Houses who rose against Jon Arryn.

And also that Yohn Royce seems to have held the Starks in fairly high regard speaks to me that they most likely saw the rebellion as a good thing.