Jon Snow popularity at the Wall?

[jwkdude]

Hello,

I was just wondering if anyone has text evidence about how popular Jon Snow is at the wall? It's known the Bowen Marsh and his crew dislike him (though they "kill" him out of duty not hatred) (tears as they kill him) but is he still popular among the rangers and builders? I was just thinking that if a majority of brothers didnt support him, some type of coalition of Queens men and Bowens men might have a battle with the Wildlings.

[Lord Lannister]

Well he managed to get voted in, albeit as a compromise candidate, as Lord Commander. So despite that very adamant minority, I'd say he's at least accepted, if not popular, with the majority of the Watch.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Think of it this way.

If Bowen's side really had that wide a range of support, why did it come down to ~4 guys (two of whom are identified as stewards, not builders or rangers) stabbing Jon when everyone else was distracted by the giant?

[Hagorn Icebeard]

Didn't the free folk swear loyalty to Jon himself? This would guarantee that atleast the wildlings are on Jon's side.

[MyLittleFinger]

Well he managed to get voted in, albeit as a compromise candidate, as Lord Commander. So despite that very adamant minority, I'd say he's at least accepted, if not popular, with the majority of the Watch.

To be fair, he got both Mallister and Pyke which makes up the entire Shadow Tower and East Watch to vote for him through no actual work of his own...

[Arya Targaryen]

Most of the Watch consists of lowborns, most of them are not officer material. They definitely have their own ideas about what they should be doing, and they definietly don't like some of the changes, but I think that such people can appreciate a strong-willed leader, even if they don't like everything, because at least there is someone who tells them what to do.

So I don't think popular is the right word, but he was accepted by the majority.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

He got the support of basically all the rangers and the young generation in the other two orders. Dywen, Giant, Iron Emmett, they are among the most respected rangers and fully support him.

Jon has a problem with some disgruntled and disrespected offcers who had never crossed the Wall and with one guy whose lover got killed under Jon's command.

[OldGimletEye]

He got the support of basically all the rangers and the young generation in the other two orders. Dywen, Giant, Iron Emmett, they are among the most respected rangers and fully support him.

Jon has a problem with some disgruntled and disrespected offcers who had never crossed the Wall and with one guy whose lover got killed under Jon's command.

This basically is my impression. I thought that Jon basically was fairly popular with the rank and file soldiers, but had problems with some of the senior leadership.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This basically my impression. I thought that Jon basically was fairly popular with the rank and file soldiers, but had problems with some of the senior leadership.

And I think a lot of that is ageism as much as Jon's ideas. Bowen might have disagreed with Mormont but do you think he ever sassed Mormont the way he does Jon? I don't.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

There are a few things here that have yet to be revealed:

1) Jon is being forced by circumstance to make unpopular decisions, particularly concerning the Wildlings and the food supply. This is bound to generate animosity. To what extent, who knows? I think it's safe to say that Bowen Marsh has more than a little support or he wouldn't have attempted the assassination.

2) in AFFC, Cersei and Qyburn formulate a plan to send assassins to the wall (posing as recruits) to kill Jon Snow. Did this play a part in the events of the final ADwD chapter?

[Urswyck the Faithful]

There are a few things here that have yet to be revealed:

1) Jon is being forced by circumstance to make unpopular decisions, particularly concerning the Wildlings and the food supply. This is bound to generate animosity. To what extent, who knows? I think it's safe to say that Bowen Marsh has more than a little support or he wouldn't have attempted the assassination.

2) in AFFC, Cersei and Qyburn formulate a plan to send assassins to the wall (posing as recruits) to kill Jon Snow. Did this play a part in the events of the final ADwD chapter?

1) He may not have more support as his actions (and fellow conspirators) may be the result of their own warped viewpoints-they might genuinely believe what they are doing is for the best and are willing to risk their lives to see it through.

2) I don't think this plan ever got off the ground. We do not hear anymore mention of it due to the chaos in Kings Landing so it really depends on Qyburn and if he acted on his own accord to carry it out. But with his uncertain allegiance this is questionable.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

There are a few things here that have yet to be revealed:

1) Jon is being forced by circumstance to make unpopular decisions, particularly concerning the Wildlings and the food supply. This is bound to generate animosity. To what extent, who knows? I think it's safe to say that Bowen Marsh has more than a little support or he wouldn't have attempted the assassination.

2) in AFFC, Cersei and Qyburn formulate a plan to send assassins to the wall (posing as recruits) to kill Jon Snow. Did this play a part in the events of the final ADwD chapter?

1. If Bowen had more support though, wouldn't you expect to see more men, or more militaristic men, like rangers, stabbing Jon? Why did they have to do it when everyone else was distracted by the giant? I wouldn't think of a steward as a decent assassin, yet that's who stabbed Jon. Presumably if they had anyone better to do it, that's who would have done it.

2. The guy who would have gone to the Wall to kill Jon was a Kettleblack who ended up in prison and never made it.

[Greymoon]

This basically my impression. I thought that Jon basically was fairly popular with the rank and file soldiers, but had problems with some of the senior leadership.

Yes. I also had the impression that Jon had problems mostly with those Night's Watch brothers who'd never gone beyond the wall. They don't understand the threat of the Others, nor do they understand what he is doing with the wildlings. The rangers know and understand.

[A spoon of knife and fork]

In a way very similar to what I wish Dany had done with her freedmen, I really wish jon had gotten down with his (presumably) loyal subjects more. It was frustrating watching them intentionally and unintentionally distancing themselves from those who form their power base, and instead squabbling with the entrenched power structures that were never going to accept him anyway.

Jon should have spent more time withhis men, and especially putting more of them Into positions of power, alongside people like marsh. Dany should have had more former slaves in her inner circle and should never have worn her "floppy ears".

That said, I think both jon and Dany remained quite popular with their power base. However since theg didn't really keep them in the loop there was some alienation, I imagine.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1. If Bowen had more support though, wouldn't you expect to see more men, or more militaristic men, like rangers, stabbing Jon? Why did they have to do it when everyone else was distracted by the giant? I wouldn't think of a steward as a decent assassin, yet that's who stabbed Jon. Presumably if they had anyone better to do it, that's who would have done it.

2. The guy who would have gone to the Wall to kill Jon was a Kettleblack who ended up in prison and never made it.

1. Maybe the conspirators drew straws. Who knows?

2. I think it came to nothing, but the whole thing was mentioned and never really resolved if I recall. The idea is formulated fairly early in the book, so presumably Qyburn would have had time to set the plan in motion before things went awry in Kings Landing.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

In a way very similar to what I wish Dany had done with her freedmen, I really wish jon had gotten down with his (presumably) loyal subjects more. It was frustrating watching them intentionally and unintentionally distancing themselves from those who form their power base, and instead squabbling with the entrenched power structures that were never going to accept him anyway.

Jon should have spent more time withhis men, and especially putting more of them Into positions of power, alongside people like marsh. Dany should have had more former slaves in her inner circle and should never have worn her "floppy ears".

That said, I think both jon and Dany remained quite popular with their power base. However since theg didn't really keep them in the loop there was some alienation, I imagine.

I agree. I think Jon distanced himself a little too much.

[Nic.]

I was always under the impression that the Rangers liked him and the stewards didn't while the Builders were on the fence about him.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Also, he seemed to receive a good amount of support in the shield hall.

[Nyrhex]

Pyke and Mallister gave the votes of two garrisons due to compromise, and Marsh and Yarwyck left the hall "and all their men behind them" means most of the stewards and builders are out of the question. Jon has basically the support of a couple dozen new recruits, a couple dozen at most out of the surviving veteran rangers (ther are few enough and not all rangers support him), and ~60-70 Wldlings. The rest of the Wildlings are loyal to Mance (~1,100 fighters at most) or Stannis (~200 Thenns), and at most will follow Jon as long as it meets thier ends. Stannis' troops on the Wall in total are 83 (12 with Mel, 10 at Icemark, 10 at Greyguard, 50 with Selyse and Shireen and I assume Ser Axell can use a swords considering he is a knight). The NW has ~600 men. Slightly under 400 at castle Black at the start of Dance, most of them builders and stewards. Slightly under 200 at the Shadow Tower and Eastwatch combined.

As of the end of Dance, the situation is:

Mallister's men: Mallister's men had no say in the vote, they voted for thier commander, who used thier votes as he saw fit.

Westwatch-by-the-Bridge has 30 men or fewer from the NW, likely from the Shadow Tower.

Shadow Tower has, assuming it sent men to the two nearest castles, about 30-40 men left (more if Westwatch and Sentinel have fewer than 30 each).

Sentinel Stand has 30 men or fewer from the NW, likely from the Shadow Tower.

Cotter's men: Cotter's men had no say in the vote, they voted for thier commander, who used thier votes as he saw fit.

Eastwatch-by-the-Sea has a skeleton gattison while Cotter is away at Hardhome. Currently Ser Glendon Hewett is in charge at Eastwatch. A known friend of Thorne, was present at Jon's trial by Slynt. Logically most of Eastwatch should be on the ships to Hardhome. Blackbird at least has a closed deck for the oarsmen, giving a size of ship that easily takes most of the men. The Blackbird is lost with all hads, dealing another blow to the NW's already minimal manpower.

Torches has 30 men or fewer from the NW, possibly from Eastwatch, though likely from Castle Black. Cotter would literally need all hands on deck for the trip north, on 3 galleys.

The Wildlings:

Greenguard has Devyn Sealskinner's clan. Will likely follow whoever holds his son/s (Ward/s at Castle Black).

Long Barrow has Spearwives under the joint command of Iron Emmet and Dolorouse Edd. Loyal men, but too far to offer aid.

Sable Hall has Wildlings following Halleck. As brother to Harma, Halleck likes neither crows, Mance, nor Stannis for slaying his sister. HIs loyalty is likely only to himself.

Deep Lake Has Wildlings, unknown command.

Oakenshield is Tormund's seat. Nearly certain to be loyal to Jon. Then again one does not become a strong leader of Wildlings by fighting for dead friends.

Queensgate has Morna White Mask and her people. She seemed grateful to Jon when passing the Wall.

Stonedoor has Soren Shieldbreaker's clan. Will likely follow whoever holds his son (Ward at Castle Black).

Stannis/Castle Black/Misc:

Castle Black - 62 of Stannis' men (one died). 200 Thenns with Sigorn, sworn to Stannis. <400 minus 40 (garrison and rangers) is about 350 men, most of them loyal to Marsh or Yarwyck. Several hundred Wildlings arriving for the Hardhome expedition, who are still loyal to Mance.

Icemark - 10 men from Castle Black, 10 from the Shadow Tower, 10 from Stannis. Commander is Bedwyck, loyal to Jon.

Greyguard - 20 men from the NW, 10 from Stannis. Commander is a sergeant from the Shadow Tower. Loyal to Mallister.

The Nightfort has a few builders working on it.

Rimegate is unmanned.

Woodswatch-by-the-Pool is unmanned.

Hoarfrost Hill is unmanned.

Overall, Jon has the support of a relatively small percentage of the men at the Wall at the end of Dance, with the situation flexible enough for any number of combinations to come out with the different groups and interests.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

1. Maybe the conspirators drew straws. Who knows?

2. I think it came to nothing, but the whole thing was mentioned and never really resolved if I recall. The idea is formulated fairly early in the book, so presumably Qyburn would have had time to set the plan in motion before things went awry in Kings Landing.

1. Do you draw straws or do you go with the guy who's best-suited to the task? Because it comes off as half-assed and clumsy to me.

2. It was never resolved because the guy who would have done it was arrested. Until we know otherwise, I'd file it under the pattern of "things that are planned never pan out." I'm not sure that Qyburn having Jon assassinated from afar really fits with what happened; why did they wait until Jon had decided to march on Winterfell to assassinate him if Qyburn had already ordered his assassination?