Dany and the Tattered Prince: an alliance means war with Braavos

[Minstral]

Title pretty much says it all. If the Captain of the Windblown successfully throws in with Dany and her faction, which looks to be the case, then we are aware of the prize that the Tattered Prince will be expecting. He wants more than to be the Prince of Pentos, he wants the real power behind the office, the power which the Magisters went to lengths to strip from the office all of its authority. It is a regime change that will probably upset the established relations between Pentos and Braavos, as the former is currently under the thumb of the latter which they established in treaties.

This is not to say that Tatters would try to re-establish open slavery in Pentos, only that Braavos is currently invested in the current powers that be of the Magisters. If he comes to realize his ambitions then at the best it would sour relations, and worst of all for him and Danaerys faction is the likelihood that Braavos will outright oppose them.

[239JMFL34109]

is braavos leadership not in flux right now? i could see them jumping in with dany and the prince to get rid of slavery for real in pentos and the other free cities.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

That's predicting, like, a zillion steps ahead. And I don't even know what'll happen during, and directly after, the Battle of Meereen.

[Minstral]

That's predicting, like, a zillion steps ahead. And I don't even know what'll happen during, and directly after, the Battle of Meereen.

And? This is not a scenario that is mired with crackpot. It is a scenario that may or may not play out, but it is still a speculative idea on who would be willing to oppose Daenerys under these circumstances.

is braavos leadership not in flux right now? i could see them jumping in with dany and the prince to get rid of slavery for real in pentos and the other free cities.

The current Sealord's health is rumored to be failing, which inevitably will bring a new one. We don't know the stance of the current one or his successor, save for the fact that the Iron Bank is probably an entity that is largely influential in his office. Either way, for a city that was founded by slaves they still might not like the look of her army. She looks like a breaker of shackles to the Free Cities that indulge in slavery, but her Unsullied are "free" which to an outsider might not think much of a distinction between freed slave soldiers that have had defiance bred out of them. It has been pointed out by other posters that they may follow her not because she freed them but because they know no other life but obedience. Furthermore, her Dragons will always be a symbol of subjugation to the Braavosi.

[TallTyrion]

I think Barvos is likely to be sympathetic to her because of what she did to the Slave trade.

However, in another thread some one brought up the possibility of the Kingdom of the Three Daughters alliance reforming to oppose Dany. Maybe your scenario could play out the same except with her actions in Pentos contributing to Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh opposing her.

[239JMFL34109]

The current Sealord's health is rumored to be failing, which inevitably will bring a new one. We don't know the stance of the current one or his successor, save for the fact that the Iron Bank is probably an entity that is largely influential in his office. Either way, for a city that was founded by slaves they still might not like the look of her army. She looks like a breaker of shackles to the Free Cities that indulge in slavery, but her Unsullied are "free" which to an outsider might not think much of a distinction between freed slave soldiers that have had defiance bred out of them. It has been pointed out by other posters that they may follow her not because she freed them but because they know no other life but obedience. Furthermore, her Dragons will always be a symbol of subjugation to the Braavosi.

The iron bank seem practical enough to see that the Targs ruled westeros which doesn't have slaves.

The question for me is if dany comes over and supports what i think will be revolts in the free cities with very large slave populations i could see them coming to her aid? but given what has happened in slavers bay how will she react to the free cities?

i think that braavos doesn't like that pentos is getting around their treaty is such a messed up way where they have slaves in all but name.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Braavos can go both ways with Dany. On the one hand, she's freed slaves. On the other, she sends mixed messages (she still married a slaver and still allows people to sell themselves into slavery for her profit). There's no guarantee that whoever gets the dragons after her will be abolitionist. Finally, from the IB's perspective, she's a poor investment. Given her past behavior, they might think she'd just burn the city down when the bill came due. It's just a matter of which wins out: volatility and the dragons or anti-slavery ideology that still has a long way to go.

[OldGimletEye]

Braavos can go both ways with Dany. On the one hand, she's freed slaves. On the other, she sends mixed messages (she still married a slaver and still allows people to sell themselves into slavery for her profit). There's no guarantee that whoever gets the dragons after her will be abolitionist. Finally, from the IB's perspective, she's a poor investment. Given her past behavior, they might think she'd just burn the city down when the bill came due. It's just a matter of which wins out: volatility and the dragons or anti-slavery ideology that still has a long way to go.

All this. And plus, I'd have to wonder how Braavos will feel about having some huge Dothraki state on it's southern border.

[Lord Martin]

Wouldn't Danys relationship with Illyrio come into play? He is a magister of Pentos, would she sell him out for the loyalty of the Windblown? Is there a middle path?

And I think the Braavos are a wild card. I'm not even sure it's fair to refer to one Braavos. The I.B. Might not have the same interests as the Sealord and political establishment and the faceless Men likely have agendas all their own.

So my real guess is that she never agrees to that price if a Tatters even gets to meet her.

If she did promise Pentos to Rags and Tatters, I'd expect the IB to oppose her because she's a threat to Stannis. I'd also expect the FM to test their dragon slaying skills.

With both those factions opposed to her, I'd expect the leaders of Braavos to extend her every courtesy in order to lull her into complacency. Then the IB or FM can take care of business.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^But what is Dany going to think when she learns about Aegon? While I would argue she will think he is a fake, even if she didn't she will still be upset at him for not telling her about him, she will think about Jorahs statement that he sold her to Khal Drago and realize he never intended to help her.

[EastTymor]

The nice thing about allies, particularly of the duplicitous sellsword variety, is that you can kick them to the curb when it becomes convenient.

[239JMFL34109]

All this. And plus, I'd have to wonder how Braavos will feel about having some huge Dothraki state on it's southern border.

i could see them pushing to have her go as fast as possible to westeros with them.

Wouldn't Danys relationship with Illyrio come into play? He is a magister of Pentos, would she sell him out for the loyalty of the Windblown? Is there a middle path?

And I think the Braavos are a wild card. I'm not even sure it's fair to refer to one Braavos. The I.B. Might not have the same interests as the Sealord and political establishment and the faceless Men likely have agendas all their own.

So my real guess is that she never agrees to that price if a Tatters even gets to meet her.

If she did promise Pentos to Rags and Tatters, I'd expect the IB to oppose her because she's a threat to Stannis. I'd also expect the FM to test their dragon slaying skills.

With both those factions opposed to her, I'd expect the leaders of Braavos to extend her every courtesy in order to lull her into complacency. Then the IB or FM can take care of business.

It does not seem like she trust illyrio

i could see the IB backing everyone like corporations do today with political parties so that whoever wins they get their money back. the FM are wildcards within wild cards they don't seem to have reason to go against her anymore than anyone else so far from what we know right now.

[A spoon of knife and fork]

If she did promise Pentos to Rags and Tatters, I'd expect the IB to oppose her because she's a threat to Stannis. I'd also expect the FM to test their dragon slaying skills.

It is said that the IB will fund your enemies if you don't pay your debt. That doesn't mean they are backing stannis for the IT - it only means they will fund those making war against cersei. Currently that includes stannis, but it could conceivably include anyone else seeking to fight the IT as well - whether that be Dany or Aegon.

[Pod The Impaler]

I'm more inclined to believe Braavos may be her ally against Volantis.