Play That Hypothetical: Robb at the Wall, Stannis in KL

[Fisch]

So, I'm gonna lay out a series of "what-ifs" here.

- Edmure stays put in Riverrun, so Robb and Blackfish are able to lead Tywin on a merry chase and eventually cut his force to ribbons, taking Tywin and Kevan prisoner.

- Stannis takes King's Landing. Tyrion, Cersei, and Tommen are all put to death, but Varys escapes. Pycelle is taken prisoner. Sansa is secured by Stannis's men. Davos is recovered and named Hand of the King. Arya's absence is discovered, as are incriminating documents on Littlefinger, who remains with the Tyrells.

- With Littlefinger's whispering and prodding, and Loras's anger affecting his (and Daddy's) senses, the Tyrells oppose Stannis and move to form an alliance with nobles in the Westerlands. The only royal they have left to rally behind is Myrcella, whom Stannis wants the Dornish to surrender. Littlefinger prevails on Mace Tyrell to send envoys to Dorne, but Mace is tactless (as is Stannis) and Dorne does not respond to either.

- Robb's victory over Tywin and Stannis's victory in KL move Roose to stay true to Robb's cause. Winterfell is relieved, not sacked (I'm assuming here that the sacking was an order from Roose, not a whim of Ramsay's. I don't know that that's ever been stated outright in the books, but if it were a whim of Ramsay's, how did he know not to harm the Freys? Let us also assume that the Dreadfort does not stir.) Rodrik's army then moves to free Torrhen's Square and Deepwood Motte. Bran and Rickon are discovered to be alive. Theon takes the black.

- Without a co-conspirator or security from Tywin Lannister, Walder Frey's dreams of vengeance remain dreams (if I remember the timeline right, Robb gets word of his brothers' "death" before Blackwater, so changing the victor there wouldn't change the marriage fiasco, or Catelyn's freeing Jaime). All Frey can do is offer petty slights - one of them being a refusal to have any of his brood wed Arya. Robb still moves to make amends (possibly still arranging a match for Edmure, though since he isn't at a place of desperation, perhaps not). The Freys like the new deal not, but with Stark and Tully both strong, they have little choice but to deal with it.

- Robb sues for peace with Stannis. After a very unpleasant round of negotiations, a peace is made that leaves Robb King in the North and the Trident - for the nonce. Both he and Stannis are more concerned with securing their respective realms than rushing to fight each other, and Stannis's realm is the shakier; this is his chief reason for relenting. Robb surrenders Tywin and Kevan to Stannis, to be used as leverage against the Westerlands, and he allows small hunting parties to enter the Riverlands to search for Jaime. Sansa is returned to her family. Left unresolved (amidst such boring details as trade agreements, currency, the effect this has on the North's relations with the Citadel and the Trident's with the Faith of the Seven, etc) is the matter of who controls the Vale. Stannis insists on keeping it, Robb (by Catelyn's advice) proposes that the Vale choose its king and vows not to challenge its decision, and Lysa remains cooped up in her tower and in her crazy little head.

- Robb confirms Edmure as Lord Paramount of the Trident (the official name of the Riverlands in this new kingdom), but still names the Blackfish Warden of the Southern Marches, and tasks them both to settle remaining bloodshed, defend the southern border and to prepare for winter. Robb calls all his Northern forces back as one army and moves to retake Moat Caitlin.

- Arya's escape from Harrenhal still occurs, as is her encounter with the Brotherhood Without Banners, but with the change in circumstances, she is delivered more quickly to Riverrun, in time to be reunited with her mother and brother and to move north with them. Robb plans to have her fostered with the Mormonts.

- Moat Caitlin is retaken, at little cost to the northmen. Rodrik's moves further north were successful as well. But as the ironborn are being driven out, word finally reaches Robb about the situation at the Wall. After a conference with his bannermen, he decides to leave a token force behind to secure the North, and to give his lords time to order their lands to prepare for winter, but he does decide to move to relieve the Wall.

- Bran is safe at home, the Stark in Winterfell, but Jojen is still urging him to seek out the three-eyed raven. Catelyn the girls return to Winterfell, with Arya set to leave for Bear Island before winter sets in.

- Ramsay's being alive gets out into open knowledge. He flees before he can be taken.

- While Stannis prepares to deal with the Reach/Westerlands alliance, Melissandre arrives in KL and makes a less than favourable impression. Conflict between her faith and that of the Seven begins in earnest. The sparrow movement doesn't emerge as such, but a mob of the devout do turn up to challenge Melissandre's acolytes.

- Balon still dies, and Euron still replaces him.

- Varys makes it to Essos, and he and Illyrio decide that, between Melissandre and the rebelling states, there is an opening for Aegon, and move up their timeframe for his invasion.

- Word reaches Brienne and Jaime of what happened at King's Landing. Jaime manages to get loose and kill Brienne. He makes for the Westerlands.

- Doran still sends Quentyn off to Dany. He makes no move regarding Myrcella, but Oberyn and his brood favour supporting her claim if they can get justice where the Mountain is concerned from the Westerlands.

- Jon's story, and that of the Wall, play out exactly the same way (minus Summer's coming to the rescue, but let's say Jon gets away anyway) up until the point where the army falls of the wildlings as Jon talks with Mance. The army still comes, but it's Robb's (let us say he went through Eastwatch so as to take the wildlings by surprise).

So, there are the hypotheticals: total obliteration of Lannister power over the Iron Throne, a tenuous agreement between Robb and Stannis, religious conflicts and continued rebellion in the south, a sped-up Aegon attack, a new set of options for Dorne, Bran safe at home but still being called, Ramsay and Jaime on the loose, the Starks reunited, and the King in the North at the Wall.

Taking all these what-ifs as described (if you want to play fair :P ) - predict what happens next.

Some questions to get you started:

- How does Robb deal with Mance and Tormund and the rest of the wildings?

- Does Jon still become Lord Commander, and do he and Robb remain close?

- How does Stannis deal with the religious conflict?

- How does he take Robb's move to the Wall?

- What does Bran do?

- Can Jaime make it home? What does he do there?

- How do all the southron conflicts turn out?

- What of the Vale?

- And more!

[Batbob45]

I doubt Stannis would have Tommen killed. He was hesitent in burning Edric Storm. He also didn't blame Edric Storm for Robert's doing.

[James Arryn]

I doubt Stannis would have Tommen killed. He was hesitent in burning Edric Storm. He also didn't blame Edric Storm for Robert's doing.

Edric Storm wasn't an "abomination", and his hesitation about his nephew seemed to be about to cease.

Stannis ruling would be as entertainng as Cersei ruling has been, so here's hoping it happens.

[In A Coat of Gold]

The hypothetical is based on everything going right for the Starks.

Even if Edmure let's Tywin pass, Robb is still outnumbered and in enemy territory. At best, he'll stall Tywin long enough for Stannis to take King's Landing. At worst, he's captured. It was a dumb decision on his part.

[Fisch]

I doubt Stannis would have Tommen killed. He was hesitent in burning Edric Storm. He also didn't blame Edric Storm for Robert's doing.

The hypothetical is based on everything going right for the Starks.

Even if Edmure let's Tywin pass, Robb is still outnumbered and in enemy territory. At best, he'll stall Tywin long enough for Stannis to take King's Landing. At worst, he's captured. It was a dumb decision on his part.

The hypothetical exists as described :)

[Hueylouis]

Okay none of this happened in the story so it doesn't matter

[Urswyck the Faithful]

Would Jaime not be at Harrenhal under the Brave Companions? I imagine this means Briennes death is certain either way as Bolton would send Jaime to Robb or kill him and Brienne would not be saved as Jaime had no clout to use.

But In this hypothetical I find it hard to imagine Jaime making it to the Westerlands in his state with all the search parties. Just seems to be stretching it for the purpose of putting a more familiar face in charge of the Lannister remnants when I'm sure there is another lesser known one who would suit.

[Fisch]

Okay none of this happened in the story so it doesn't matter

Of course none of it happened; it's a "what-if" thread. People seem to like them, and I thought this one would be fun. I just tend to like "what-if" scenarios that offer a lot of details to work with.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Jon Snow is named Lord Commander pretty much immediately and has the full support of the entire Watch. Being the bastard brother to the successful KitN has that effect.

Robb deals with Mance according to Jon's advice, no change there except for more support.

Stannis isn't religious. He'll slam the heads of the High Septon and Melisandre together until they can tolerate each other. Mind, the High Septon won't be the High Sparrow nor would the Sparrow movement actually exist.

Bran would stay in Winterfell and the 3EC can move his rear there if he wishes to talk in person.

Jaime dies, in some rather unpleasant ways.

Stannis will win against the Tyrells. He got the Stormlanders, the Narrow Sea and half the Lords of the Reach anyway, and a lot of Westermen will want to make up with him. House Florent becomes the new Lords Paramount of the Reach.

The Vale aligns with Robb and Stannis both, in a rather tenous neutral position.

Aegon's invasion won't happen as there is no proper landing zone.

Euron is curbstomped (if he makes Lord of the Iron Islands at all with Victarion dying at Moat Cailin) and Asha makes her peace with the North and Stannis.

Dorne probably stays neutral, a bit like the Vale.

In the end, the Seven Kingdoms revert to four or five independent kingdoms.

[Barty]

But Robb didnt even want to engage Tywin in the west. Its not in his interest to beat Tywin if Tywin comes west and leaves KL to Stannis. He says it outright that he was planning to make peace with Tywin once KL fell and that would leave Tywin with a strong army vs Stannis with a strong army while Robb looks on planning his next move and consolidating his power.

[Ser Charles of Rosehaven]

Tommen is an usurper just as renly was. he deserves to die

[Bright Blue Eyes]

But Robb didnt even want to engage Tywin in the west. Its not in his interest to beat Tywin if Tywin comes west and leaves KL to Stannis. He says it outright that he was planning to make peace with Tywin once KL fell and that would leave Tywin with a strong army vs Stannis with a strong army while Robb looks on planning his next move and consolidating his power.

Tywin had at best a mediocre army left and would loose support left and right while Stannis would retain a strong one and gain reinforcements left and right.

[Barty]

Tywin had at best a mediocre army left and would loose support left and right while Stannis would retain a strong one and gain reinforcements left and right.

Tywin has 20k men with him - hardly a mediocre army. And I doubt many Lords of the west would abandon Tywin while Tywin is in the west and close to their homes and families.

Either way it doesnt matter much to Robb - If it looks like Stannis is becoming too powerful he can tip the scales in Tywin's favor (maybe release Jaime as well). All he needs is to ensure that this war last as long as possible.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Tywin has 20k men with him - hardly a mediocre army. And I doubt many Lords of the west would abandon Tywin while Tywin is in the west and close to their homes and families.

Either way it doesnt matter much to Robb - If it looks like Stannis is becoming too powerful he can tip the scales in Tywin's favor (maybe release Jaime as well). All he needs is to ensure that this war last as long as possible.

Had, not has. At least two big battles, 300 deserters, a lost garrison at Harrenhal, a deathmarch and two years of war ago.

The Westerlings had already abandoned Tywin. After he lost KL and his claim to the IT, he would have been already defeated and at best could lessen the blow.

[Fisch]

Jon Snow is named Lord Commander pretty much immediately and has the full support of the entire Watch. Being the bastard brother to the successful KitN has that effect.

Robb deals with Mance according to Jon's advice, no change there except for more support.

Stannis isn't religious. He'll slam the heads of the High Septon and Melisandre together until they can tolerate each other. Mind, the High Septon won't be the High Sparrow nor would the Sparrow movement actually exist.

No comment on the rest, but these three:

- It was a desperate set of circumstances that moved Sam to put Jon's name forward, and I don't know that Robb would have but the Watch under as much pressure to hurry up and pick as Stannis did. I agree that if Jon's name comes up, he wins, but without Slynt having the support of Twyin Lannister to boost his odds, would Sam feel he had to nominate Jon?

- Again, I agree that if Jon is LC, Robb will follow his advice. But Stannis pointed out in ASoS that the northern lords were likely to be unhappy with settling wildlings on the Gift, and in this "what-if," all those northern lords are at the Wall with Robb. Robb may want to heed Jon's word, but could he sell the bannermen on the idea of common cause with the free folk - the the bannermen who made him king?

- Never thought of that. A tame High Septon might swallow it, but how well does Mel take it?

EDIT: I suppose, on Point 2, Robb could have asked his lords to put forward younger sons and men in their service they felt deserved lands, made them the new lords of the Gift, and given each a certain number of wildlings. Jon would tell him that wildlings follow the man, not the name, but Robb could have the lords-to-be stay near the Wall and get to know their future people.

[Belgarad]

So, I'm gonna lay out a series of "what-ifs" here.

Some questions to get you started:

- How does Robb deal with Mance and Tormund and the rest of the wildings?

- Does Jon still become Lord Commander, and do he and Robb remain close?

- How does Stannis deal with the religious conflict?

- How does he take Robb's move to the Wall?

- What does Bran do?

- Can Jaime make it home? What does he do there?

- How do all the southron conflicts turn out?

- What of the Vale?

- And more!

1) Robb would defer to Jon's judgment out of respect, and common sense. Jon would be one of the few people with a complete understanding of the situation, i.e. the walking dead led by the others are coming and coming soon, and Robb would listen to him

2) Yes, Sam will still orchestrate Jon's selection. Yes, Robb will still value his opinion and counsel.

3) Stannis would continue to take his freedom of religion policy. The burning wierwood bits ceremony with the wildlings was an act of submission not some sort of forced conversion ceremony. He at no point really forces anyone to change religion. His camp is split between Queen's Men who have openly embraced Mel's faith and King's Men who are devoutly loyal to Stannis himself. Stannis is clearly conscious of respecting the religious rights of the Northmen in his army.

4) If Mel still understands the Others as the true threat to Westeros then he will make a concerted effort to reinforce the wall against the coming attack.

5) Assuming of course that Bran's future roll is to be an omniscient general against the Others, possibly communicating directly with the world via Hodor, then he will continue to do whatever he can to stop the invasion.

6) IF Brienne hears that Sansa and Arya have been safely returned to Catelyn then who knows. She will try to get him to King's Landing but who knows if Harrenhall is cleaned out by the then. My gut says Brienne, upon hearing of the meaninglessness of her mission, turns Jaime over to Stannis before any maiming.

7) If Stannis has the throne Dorne bends the knee, the Tyrells would have no choice but to submit, and the Westerlands would have no leg left to stand on alone.

8) The Vale would claim independence, crowning Robert I Arryn King of the Vale and the Mountain.

More) Aegon would no longer have Tyrion to suggest going west, forcing the Golden Company to take up Dany's cause in Mereen. Her storyline is unchanged so Aegon would likely arrive around the same time as Quenton, so probably too late to stop her wedding. But in Aegon's case I can see her being more willing to set aside Hizdahr and her entire mission in Slaver's Bay to focus on conquering Westeros.

[Fisch]

3) Stannis would continue to take his freedom of religion policy. The burning wierwood bits ceremony with the wildlings was an act of submission not some sort of forced conversion ceremony. He at no point really forces anyone to change religion. His camp is split between Queen's Men who have openly embraced Mel's faith and King's Men who are devoutly loyal to Stannis himself. Stannis is clearly conscious of respecting the religious rights of the Northmen in his army.

I'd be more worried about Selyse. Remember her reaction when Jon told her the wildling host didn't have to take the red god?

Re-reading ADwD, I thought of another question for this what-if: dragonglass. Robb doesn't have any. What do he and Jon do about that?