The dagger hired to kill Bran : the ultimate theory with text references leading to Robert B.

[TallTyrion]

Right, I think at this point he started to see his father as being a hypocrite (since Robert was an avid hunter) and got a little positive reinforcement from his mother and a sense that, no matter how bad he pissed off his father, his mother would love him. The cat incident definitely contributed to Joffrey becoming a little prick.

But I don't think he did it because he was a little prick. I think he had a natural childish curiosity, and he had probably seen animals cut open before and nobody saw anything wrong with it, and nobody had ever told him before that he shouldn't harm animals.

Are you kidding me?

First off, that wasn't childhood curiosity. Torturing animals in childhood is one of the main signs of a sociopath which is clearly Martin's intention when including that story.

Secondly, the fact that he's a hunter doesn't make him a hypocrite for being pissed that his son cut open a pregnant cat for kicks.

[Twenty of House Goodmen]

Further proof of House Baratheon's role as the true villain house of the series.

[TimJames]

Further proof of House Baratheon's role as the true villain house of the series.

Unlike the Freys, who clearly didn't do shit! I still don't understand why the Freys have a reputation as cut-throats and back-stabbers ...

(The above was sarcasm)

[redrubies]

I'm still unsure as to the person responsible but i do know that whoever planned it knew the knife would be identified as Robert's because of it's specific and valuable characteristics. And since it was Robert's this person wanted to sow discord between two longtime friends of two very powerful houses.

[Ulthosian Stark]

I'm still unsure as to the person responsible but i do know that whoever planned it knew the knife would be identified as Robert's because of it's specific and valuable characteristics. And since it was Robert's this person wanted to sow discord between two longtime friends of two very powerful houses.

This. 10000x.

So many people with better motives then a drunken Robert, Ned was a lifelong friend and war pal. You don't make moves on peoples families when firstly your probably fond of them yourself, and you know the man your fucking with has a giant great sword named Ice and controls an area larger then you do... With harder men then you have... Too many holes.

I hate to say this as I think a scientific device shouldn't be applied to fantasy literature but Occam's Razor can be applied to this one. There are too many predictable head honchos then Robert for it to be Robert IMO. Plus that wouldn't do dick for the story. He's dead. Neds dead. Their respective families are scattered. If that came up, I mean the Stark kids would be pissed, as would Stark loyalists but that pissed off-ness wouldn't apply to anything. Unless they act on the Baratheon-Lannisters as true Baratheons, which wouldn't make sense as the whole shpeal is they're bastards.

[redrubies]

Are there any little *snow* birds, perhaps?

[redrubies]

Also want to bring up that someone LF *trusted* was def. in the Royal brigade because that *trusted* person secretly left a wooden box with a Myrrish lense and a secret note to Cat inside. As we learned later thanks to the crazed ravings of Lysa, Petyr told her to write that letter and send it to Cat.

[Hoosier427]

Are there any little *snow* birds, perhaps?

Thats the one person with the motive that nobody ever mentions. Varys. What the motivation? He doesn't want Ned as hand of the king because it conflicts with his plans. He knows that Ned and the Lannisters are going to be at each other's throats. Have Bran killed and maybe in his grief Ned goes back home and stays in winterfell. There's is another situation where we think it's clearly the Lannisters who poison Jon Arryn because they have the most to gain only in turn to find out it was Lysa who did the deed. Personally, I think Joffrey really could care less either way. Cersei, who has the most to lose, thought it was stupid of Jaime to push Bran out the window in the first place. Jaime wouldn't hire an assassin, he simply do it himself. Robert could have done it drunk, however it would be hard for him to hire the assassin without others knowing. He is the king and people are stuck up his ass all day long.

[Ulthosian Stark]

Thats the one person with the motive that nobody ever mentions. Varys. What the motivation? He doesn't want Ned as hand of the king because it conflicts with his plans. He knows that Ned and the Lannisters are going to be at each other's throats. Have Bran killed and maybe in his grief Ned goes back home and stays in winterfell. There's is another situation where we think it's clearly the Lannisters who poison Jon Arryn because they have the most to gain only in turn to find out it was Lysa who did the deed. Personally, I think Joffrey really could care less either way. Cersei, who has the most to lose, thought it was stupid of Jaime to push Bran out the window in the first place. Jaime wouldn't hire an assassin, he simply do it himself. Robert could have done it drunk, however it would be hard for him to hire the assassin without others knowing. He is the king and people are stuck up his ass all day long.

Interesting, if his birds fly to Mereen I'm sure they can make it to the North. So far that's basically everyone having better motives then Robert. LF, Joff, the Lanns, Varys. Hell wouldn't be surprised if that assasin was a Bolton man.

[redrubies]

I'm not thinking Varys was behind the attempt on Bran's life BUT he may have relayed the news that Bran was in this condition and Littlefinger took it from there. I remember how it blew my mind the first read when Cat and Roderick get to KL and LF 1) immediately knows they have arrived 2) Asks to see her hands 3) Varys "i wondered if we could trouble you to show us the dagger" WTF? NO ONE SAID ANYTHING ABOUT A DAGGER! 4) Before this request, Varys offers to send a healer from overseas to attend Bran and Lady Stark thanks him politely and abruptly stops any talk about Bran because she doesn't trust either one.

Littlefinger's defeat from the duel for Cat's hand has scarred him DEEEEEP! He wants Ned(ALL of the Starks) to hurt-or die-Badly. And will take any measure to achieve his goal. REVENGE HAS BEEN GIS LIFE'S PURPOSE. (how else could he withstand a moment with Lysa? Come. ON!)

[Hoosier427]

You are right red, they really know to much as soon as cat gets to KL. the one argument I can make for Varys is that he does at least seem to care about the little birds. I don't know if this would carry over to all children or just his little birds. Maybe they were in it together. Littlefinger may want revenge on the adult Starks but I never got the impression he cared about the kids. He could of hung Sansa out to dry but so far hasn't. Also I think Littlefinger know when Jon Arryn died, Robert would most likely pick Ned. I think he wanted Ned in KL in order to get revenge. I think he figured he wanted Ned dead to take cat as a bride. Hell maybe the assassin was sent by Doran Martell as part of his master plan. Ha ha. But really, the only two people who seem to get anything done are Littlefinger and Varys. Also Cat rejecting Varys offer to send someone over to help heal could of been the second assassination attempt. How easy would it be for a healer to overly medicate bran and make it look like he died of natural causes. IMO it's a coin flip between Littlefinger and Varys at this point with joff trailing way behind in third.

[redrubies]

You are right red, they really know to much as soon as cat gets to KL. the one argument I can make for Varys is that he does at least seem to care about the little birds. I don't know if this would carry over to all children or just his little birds. Maybe they were in it together. Littlefinger may want revenge on the adult Starks but I never got the impression he cared about the kids. He could of hung Sansa out to dry but so far hasn't. Also I think Littlefinger know when Jon Arryn died, Robert would most likely pick Ned. I think he wanted Ned in KL in order to get revenge. I think he figured he wanted Ned dead to take cat as a bride. Hell maybe the assassin was sent by Doran Martell as part of his master plan. Ha ha. But really, the only two people who seem to get anything done are Littlefinger and Varys. Also Cat rejecting Varys offer to send someone over to help heal could of been the second assassination attempt. How easy would it be for a healer to overly medicate bran and make it look like he died of natural causes. IMO it's a coin flip between Littlefinger and Varys at this point with joff trailing way behind in third.

Varys gets such an ego boost and you can 'see' that at times in the book when he has certain info. His tittering is pure glee! I could just see his face after he hears from the birds that Lady Stark is on her way to KL and how he finds LF TO TELL HIM. LF begins to salivate...And then he manages to tell LF she has a dagger, her hands are cut.

I'm REALLY interested in seeing how things go with Sansa. Either he sees he has a prize better than Cat to keep (even with the betrothal to Harry) or this time he gets to HUMILIATE 'Cat' and takes her out too (hopefully she doesn't allow that)

[Ulthosian Stark]

It was Ramsay. Cuz he's a dick.

[Kikajon]

How is this still even up for debate? It was Joffrey.

He wasn't. :)

There is some confusion here as to have something to gain in trying to kill Bran and having a motivation.

Joff had neither.

Robert at least had a motivation. In his eyes it was a mercy for the boy and for Ned too.

He's genuinely convinced of this like he's still genuinely convinced that Lyanna would have been happy with him.

The fact that the two brothers jump to the same conclusion doesn't prove nothing.

We will never know the truth of it most probably but the Joff theory is the one that does not hold, unless you are one of his uncles '

[TheSovereignGrave]

He wasn't. :)

There is some confusion here as to have something to gain in trying to kill Bran and having a motivation.

Joff had neither.

Robert at least had a motivation. In his eyes it was a mercy for the boy and for Ned too.

He's genuinely convinced of this like he's still genuinely convinced that Lyanna would have been happy with him.

The fact that the two brothers jump to the same conclusion doesn't prove nothing.

We will never know the truth of it most probably but the Joff theory is the one that does not hold, unless you are one of his uncles '

Joffrey could've done it for daddy's approval if he heard Robert saying that it would be merciful for Bran to die rather than live a cripple.

[Kikajon]

Neither the show nor the book's Joff would have given a fig for that.

Maybe if he had actually seen the killing...but like this it us unbelievable. Only his uncles believe it

[Taenqyrhae]

Are you kidding me?

First off, that wasn't childhood curiosity. Torturing animals in childhood is one of the main signs of a sociopath which is clearly Martin's intention when including that story.

Secondly, the fact that he's a hunter doesn't make him a hypocrite for being pissed that his son cut open a pregnant cat for kicks.

I'm saying Joffrey saw him as a hypocrite, not that Robert actually was. An adult mind can make the distinction between killing an animal in a hunt and cutting open a living animal. Joffrey was very young at the time, and grew up in an environment where he probably had a lot less worldly knowledge and common sense than your average modern 6 year old. I don't have the book in front of me, but I recall the description of the event was that Joffrey proudly showed the kittens to his Dad and got smacked across the face. I did not get the impression that Joffrey intended to torture the cat and that producing the kittens was a side-effect, I think the reverse is true. Here's how I could see Joffrey's train of thought going:

1. They say there are baby kittens inside that cat. I would love to see them!

2. You can see the inside of an animal by cutting it open. I'll cut the cat open so I can see the kittens. (I've never been taught that harming animals is wrong in any way).

3. Well, that was messy, but look - kittens! I gotta show Dad!

4. I don't know why Dad hit me, I didn't do anything wrong, and obviously Mom agrees with me because she is being so nice to me now that Dad broke my tooth.

[John Suburbs]

Joffrey most certainly knew about the dagger and what it was used for, given his reaction to Tyrion's comment the morning of the purple wedding. So imho, that rules out Robert because why would he include Joffrey in on that plan?

I think the most plausible scenario is that LF convinced Joffrey to kill one of the Starks before the royal party even left King's Landing and Joffrey just chose the most vulnerable target as events unfolded in Winterfell. In this way, you don't need LF at or near WF to be the master manipulator and Joffrey still has all the knowledge of the plot to look suspicious afterward. At the same time, LF is all set to go with the "I-lost-it-to-Tyrion" story no matter who ends up dead, setting in motion the wolf-lion conflict that he needs but Varys doesn't, yet.

And if we also consider the fact that it was LF who gained from Ned's death, by removing the witness to his plotting to take the throne eventually, and the ways LF has been shown to be adept at manipulating Joffrey, I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that LF set the whole thing up right from the beginning.

[RumHam]

How does 2 different people wildly speculating that Joff might have done it, each for his own illogical, inconsistent and incompatible reasons, confirm that Joffrey did in fact do it?

Well I don't think they're being illogical. In real life this would not be very compelling evidence, but it's a book. I really doubt he had two of the people closest to Joffrey independently come to this conclusion to mislead the readers. Then of course there's a Joffrey's reaction when Tyrion brings it up at the wedding. I think it's very clear.

[Nittanian]

Well I don't think they're being illogical. In real life this would not be very compelling evidence, but it's a book. I really doubt he had two of the people closest to Joffrey independently come to this conclusion to mislead the readers. Then of course there's a Joffrey's reaction when Tyrion brings it up at the wedding. I think it's very clear.

I agree.

SSM: Assassination Plot (September 20, 1999)

Do we the readers, after having read aGoT and aCoK, have enough information to plausibly be able to reason out who was behind the assassination plot against Bran?

There's a couple of additional things to be revealed in SOS... but I think the answer could be worked out from the first two books alone, yes... though of course, =I've= known the truth all along, so in some ways it's hard for me to judge.

SSM: Re: Congratulations (April 29, 2000)

You should know that even after all this time, we're still debating things like who was behind the assassination attempt on Bran. Not to mention trying to figure out the four weddings, four trials, and two funeral.

The problem with all this speculating is that some of you are bound to guess the answers before I reveal 'em... and others may even come up with better answers than I do. Well, those are the risks one takes with such a project.

I will tell you that ASOS will resolve the question of Bran and the dagger, and also that of Jon Arryn's killer.

GRRM states twice the culprit's identity is to be revealed in ASOS. Tyrion and Jaime independently conclude that Joffrey is to blame within that book. The smartphone app written by Ran and approved by GRRM states it is Joffrey. If other characters seem more plausible, that falls into GRRM's remark that "others may even come up with better answers than I do".