ravenegg Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hi everyone, I'm new on the board, so excuse me for what probably constitutes beating on a dead horse for the 117th time, but something bothered me on re-reading and as hard as I tried to search the forums, I couldn't find what I was looking for (the forum has over four million posts!). ASOS, ch. 19, Tyrion: King's council, pre-Red Wedding, with Tywin as Hand. Council dismissed, Cersei has just left in anger because she might be forced to marry again. Only Tywin, Tyrion and Kevan remain. Tywin breaks the news to Tyrion about Robb's marriage to Jeyne Westerling. Tyrion thinks both Robb and the Westerlings must have lost their minds (not an unreasonable assumption), Tywin Lannister comments: "Jeyne Westerling is her mother's daughter", said Lord Tywin, "and Robb Stark is his father's son." "His father's son" obviously refers to always being so darn honorable, even if it kills you. But "her mother's daughter", what's that supposed to mean? We know from the same chapter that her mother was a Spicer, granddaughter of a spice merchant, and the grandmother a "frightening old crone, supposed to be a priestess" (certainly Cersei's one and only "Maggie (Maegi) the Frog") whom "half of Lannisport used to go to for cures and love potions and the like" (Kevan). So, the Lord Westerling had married a spice merchant's granddaughter, someone who most likely descended from a "maegi". It constitutes very low birth. If Jeyne is "her mother's daughter", according to Tywin, then all we know of her is that she's good at marrying above her standing. Tywin makes it clear that the Westerlings are aware of Castamere, and Tyrion wonders, since his father doesn't seem very upset: "Could the Westerlings and Spicers be such great fools as to believe the wold can defeat the lion?" Every once in a very long while, Lord Tywin Lannister would actually threaten to smile; he never did, but the threat alone was terrible to behold. "The greatest fools are ofttimes more clever than the men who laugh at them", he said, and then, "You will marry Sansa Stark, Tyrion. And soon." So actually, Tywin is very pleased. Of course, in hindsight, we know why, because he could now get the Freys to his side and defeat Robb off-battleground. But is it likely, somehow, that Tywin actually was behind the plot with the Westerling marriage? We of course don't know how scheming the Westerlings are, but it's perhaps not unreasonable to imagine at least the mother as good at scheming (of low birth, but marrying a Lord, raised by a 'witch'), and then the following scenario isn't so unthinkable: The enemy leader raids your castle, but gets wounded in the process. He's very young, and you yourself have a young and pretty daughter who can be sent his way and nurse him/manipulate him/be manipulated into manipulate him. You tell your Liege Lord about the enemy in your castle - obviously you can't kill the enemy, because his men then will kill you, but you can and will manipulate him into doing something extremely stupid. Could Tywin possibly have arranged the whole thing? Is it likely that he at least was in on the plan before it happened? Is there anything like a "forum consensus" (or majority opinion) on this question? Thanks for reading :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oafkeeper Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ... What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenegg Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 How deep was Tywin's involvement? Did he initiate the Westerling marriage? Or did he just get a good deal out of it after it was a fact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonfall2 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Doesnt the mother of Jeyne in AFFC talk with Jaime and she tells him how Tywin promised them marriages for what she did?I don't know if Tywin set up the marriage, but he certainly made the Red Wedding happen with the Westerlings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myhousigilisthehousecat Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think that Tywin could have completely concocted that from the ground up. There were just too many lucky coincidences, nobody's THAT good. I think when Robb Stark took their castle, the older Westerlings wrote to Tywin for help getting it back, and then that's when the conspiracy started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenegg Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ok, that's cool :) - was just wondering about those remarks, and although I could find lots of threads and comments on the topic, I couldn't face reading through thousands of different threads just to find one specific thing which maybe wasn't there in the first place. Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSister1001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I always wondered when the orchestrating began. I found it odd that a Lannister bannerhouse would tend to an injured enemy King unless the Westerlings didn't think Tywin would be victorious. I know I didn't given any help whatsoever, sorry. lol And Welcome! :cheers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxWolfox Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hi everyone, I'm new on the board, so excuse me for what probably constitutes beating on a dead horse for the 117th time, but something bothered me on re-reading and as hard as I tried to search the forums, I couldn't find what I was looking for (the forum has over four million posts!). Could Tywin possibly have arranged the whole thing? Is it likely that he at least was in on the plan before it happened? Is there anything like a "forum consensus" (or majority opinion) on this question. Thanks for reading :) Welcome to the boards, ravenegg (and I love your avatar!) :cheers: You have brought up some great points and quotes, but I'm not sure if Tywin thought that far ahead. I just put the whole mess down to Jeyne's mother expecting rewards for 'a job well done' and all that. On a closer re-read, I might think differently, but that'll be for another day as I'm still re-reading aDwD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Martin Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice OP! Good questions and I don't think there is a board consensus on when and how exactly Tywin and Sybil were in contact about the Honey Pot Plot. The opportunity is certainly there for Tywin to correspond with Sybil before the fall of the Crag and well before he leaves Harrenhal as Arya sees Ravens going back and forth all day. Many think he began orchestrating this plot back then as soon as Robb headed west instead of east. But I personally don't think Tywin was the initial contact, I suspect Sybil Spicer put the plot in motion. She knew that Robb was marching west and that Tywin was in the east and unlikely to come west because of the threat Stannis posed to KL. It would only be a matter of time until Robb took her castle and took everything the Westerlings had. Given their diminished position in the west, even if Tywin won the war, House Westerling might never recover. But she can't just throw in with Robb Stark either, she remembers too well the Rains of Castamere. So I suspect she tried to ride the wolf and the lion and did so successfully. When Robb was reported to be moving on the Crag, she simply had to send Tywin a letter saying, "I'm going to use my daughter to try to seduce Robb Stark which will break his alliance with the Freys, if you hear we've married the Starks, don't worry we're still loyal to you as long as we're taken care of after the fact." This is just the sort of bargain Tywin can't pass up. The line you note about the Castamere's is especially cute because Tywin ends up giving Castamere to Rolph Spicer, "They are aware of Castamere" indeed. But Tywin also left them out of the loop, that's why Reynald (likely) died at the Twins. Its also interesting that Tywin promises his bastard neice, Joy to the Freys. But when Sybil meets w/ Jaime at RR, she claims that she was promised Joy. So is she lying or did Tywin double promise Joy? Jaime has a nice bit when he meets with Sybil: No more than I want Joy to marry the son of some scheming turncloak bitch. She deserves better." Jaime would happily have strangled the woman with her seashell necklace. Joy was a sweet child, albeit a lonely one; her father had been Jaime's favorite uncle. "Your daughter is worth ten of you, my lady. You'll leave with Edmure and Ser Forley on the morrow. Until then, you would do well to stay out of my sight." He shouted for a guardsman, and Lady Sybell went off with her lips pressed primly together. Jaime had to wonder how much Lord Gawen knew about his wife's scheming. How much do we men ever know? So I wonder if the "her mother's daughter" line is meant to imply that Jeyne is a schemer too... I'm of the opinion that she escaped with the BF but that she is not pregnant... we'll learn soon in TWOW. I have two links in my signature with longer theories about jeyne westerling if you're interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenegg Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks for the welcome, and especially Lord Martin for the long and very informative reply, with links! I'll check them out. Wolfox6, I totally fell for this raven chicken as well when I saw it. There could be no other avatar :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avlonnic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hi everyone, I'm new on the board, so excuse me for what probably constitutes beating on a dead horse for the 117th time, but something bothered me on re-reading and as hard as I tried to search the forums, I couldn't find what I was looking for (the forum has over four million posts!) <snip> Could Tywin possibly have arranged the whole thing? Is it likely that he at least was in on the plan before it happened? Is there anything like a "forum consensus" (or majority opinion) on this question? Welcome, Ravenegg. There is some question as to Tywin's involvement. I recall reading a theory some time ago that Tywin and Lady Westerling arranged the situation in advance. I don't have a link for you but some believe that with her mother possibly the maegi from Cersei's foretelling, Lady Westerling had access to certain drugs and possibly spells - possibly even a 'love potion'. Robb and Jeyne are young, and even alcohol or pain-relieving intoxicants could have created an unfortunate opportunity for a sexual encounter, especially in Robb's condition. There is no question that Lady Westerling was involved and Tywin offered generous rewards for the service. Jeyne's complicity is not confirmed in the text (to my knowledge). Clearly Jeyne's post-wedding behavior with regard to Robb, her crown, and her grieving imply deep emotion. I suspect Jeyne's mother assured Tywin she could ensure her daughter's participation and simply delivered the outcome via drugs, tonics, influence, etc. without informing Jeyne. But Jeyne is purported to reappear in a future book so perhaps we will have our corroboration at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SNIP Your speculation is correct. A careful reading of the text, and especially the scene in Tyrion SoS, suggests Tywin orchestrated the event. This is also stated in the Asoiaf app. On Robb Stark's page we are told Rolph and Sybelle plotted the marriage with Lord Tywin before it took place. Tywin arranged matters in CoK, before he left Harrenhal to go west. His plan was to break Robb's alliance with the Freys in the middle of the campaign. After Blackwater he adapted the plan (which had worked) to fit new circumstances. In CoK we see Tywin trying to break Robb's ties to his bannerman through quills and ravens wrt an offer to Lord Manderly of his son in exchange for a withdrawal of his levies. Tywin knew how important the Freys were to Robb, so trying to get Robb to go back on his proposal fits his known MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravenegg Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Avlonnic, I was thinking about some "love potion" (or Westerosi 'rape drug' of any kind) too, just to make absolute certain. Though a 16-year old boy - or man, after Westerosi standards - being nursed back to health by a pretty girl would most likely not be difficult to persuade, with or without potions... but why leave anything to chance? It was indeed a singularily stupid move on Robb's part, almost hard to believe that a guy who's been raised to be the head of one of the leading families in a dog's world like Westeros could ever make such a stupid move, honor or not. So yeah, I guess drugs would certainly help. And Hear me Meow, right now I hear myself purr, for actually having figured out something on my own for once. Thanks for the info! :) - it wasn't as much a speculation or theory as just a question, if anything had been (reasonably) settled on the question. But if the app confirms it, then it is solid, right? (I don't have the app, there's something wrong with my phone, so I can't check it.) I had completely forgotten about the conversation between Jamie and Sybelle later on, though. It's been quite a while since I read the entire thing now. It never stops amazing me how rich the GRRM world is and how massive the story. Now, if I could only somehow find out why Jaquen was in King's Landing in the first place, plus how old Melisandre really is, I think I'd be reasonably happy. For a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And Hear me Meow, right now I hear myself purr, for actually having figured out something on my own for once. Thanks for the info! :) - it wasn't as much a speculation or theory as just a question, if anything had been (reasonably) settled on the question. But if the app confirms it, then it is solid, right? (I don't have the app, there's something wrong with my phone, so I can't check it.) I had completely forgotten about the conversation between Jamie and Sybelle later on, though. It's been quite a while since I read the entire thing now. It never stops amazing me how rich the GRRM world is and how massive the story. Now, if I could only somehow find out why Jaquen was in King's Landing in the first place, plus how old Melisandre really is, I think I'd be reasonably happy. For a time. On the app, well ... I don't have the app but I've seen the relevant section quoted many times. I have it saved in word somewhere but can't find it now. Literally it states Rolph and Sybelle were working with Tywin to engineer Robb and Jeyne's marriage, which does indeed imply Tywin was in on it before it happened. So, yeah, seeing as its a canon source that does settle it. However, I just have some slight doubts this would really be revealed in the app ... The conversation in Affc does not settle whether Tywin arranged it all before hand, although arguably it makes it more likely. We are just told Tywin and Sybelle had an arrangement and ensuring Jeyne did not get pregnant was part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snark_Tamer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Intriguing idea! Maybe it was Tywin, but it a much more vague way: alerting his bannermen that Robb Stark was coming this way and "you probably face defeat in the short run, but if you can find a way to get someone inside his camp, you will be well rewarded" or something to that effect. Then Jeyne's mother could have made her plans from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramsay Gimp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It stretches plausibility for me, but like Hear Me Meow said it has been pretty much confirmed. Tywin is a slick motherfucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It stretches plausibility for me, but like Hear Me Meow said it has been pretty much confirmed. Tywin is a slick motherfucker Why do you think it is so implausible? If we assume Tywin arranged it before he left HH, and didn't originally intend it to lead to the RW, I don't think it is a stretch. We are told in CoK Tywin is using quills and ravens to try and break Robb's alliances, so it's a continuation of the policy we're told he's pursuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramsay Gimp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Intriguing idea! Maybe it was Tywin, but it a much more vague way: alerting his bannermen that Robb Stark was coming this way and "you probably face defeat in the short run, but if you can find a way to get someone inside his camp, you will be well rewarded" or something to that effect. Then Jeyne's mother could have made her plans from there. I like this. It relies less on coincidence than the version where Tywin somehow predicted 1.Robb would storm the Crag, 2. Robb would be physically and emotionally vulnerable 3. Robb would trust the Westerlings to heal him 4. Robb would choose to marry Jeyne rather than just sleep with her or keep her as a mistress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramsay Gimp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why do you think it is so implausible? If we assume Tywin arranged it before he left HH, and didn't originally intend it to lead to the RW, I don't think it is a stretch. We are told in CoK Tywin is using quills and ravens to try and break Robb's alliances, so it's a continuation of the policy we're told he's pursuing. Because the only reason Robb slept with Jeyne was due to his wounds and the news about Bran/Rickon. And a "love potion" is a shot in the dark if you are trying to get him to marry Jeyne (though I admit his "Robb Stark is his father's son" comment suggests Tywin understood Robb enough to know he wouldn't just abandon a noblewoman after having sex with her) As you know I rate Tywin's political and strategic cunning very highly. But he isn't a greenseer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Because the only reason Robb slept with Jeyne was due to his wounds and the news about Bran/Rickon. And a "love potion" is a shot in the dark if you are trying to get him to marry Jeyne (though I admit his "Robb Stark is his father's son" comment suggests Tywin understood Robb enough to know he wouldn't just abandon a noblewoman after having sex with her) As you know I rate Tywin's political and strategic cunning very highly. But he isn't a greenseer Are you saying it is too inherently unlikely Robb would have sex with Jeyne for Tywin to consider formulating a plan on that basis. I mean the specific circumstances, wrt the injury and WF, were very fortuitous from the pov of the plan, but Tywin didn't need to know things would pan out like that in order to suggest the plan to Sybelle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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