Poor Stannis! and the Manderly Umber Coalition

[Muggle]

From some chapters in Dance and the Theon sample chapter I have come to the conclusion that Stannis is unwanted in the North. More so then before. My logic tells me that there is a Manderly Umber coalition going on, they have there own plan to rid the north of the Boltons. And this plan does not involve Stannis. Stannis is just an after thought for them. They will use him and leave him.

1. Umber is the supposed ally of Stannis. But Stannis has to question Theon to get information about Umber. He doesn't know the size of Umbers force nor does he know Umbers plans. He has no idea about the pits. I would think If Umber was sworn to Stannis and his man he would send runners or messengers to Stannis as he marches towards Winterfel.

2. Stannis has no clue about the real events at Winterfel. Stannis writes Jon a letter claiming that his numbers are swelling every day after the victory over the Iron Born in Deep Wood. He even goes so far to say that survivors of Winterfel are joining his ranks. Yet he has no idea that Ramsey was the one who won the battle. That he defeated Rodrick with a considerable smaller army. That he sacked Winterfel. Once again Stannis has to ask Theon what battles has Ramsey won to be feared.

I think Manderly and the Umbers both inside and outside of Winterfel are about to over throw the Boltons. Manderly has only taken 300 or so of his knights to Winterfel. Also his cousin Marlon pretty much the commander of the Manderly forces is not there also. Manderly forces are in the thousands. He also has a fleet of ships. I think Manderly's main force is camped outside of Winterfel in the Wolf Woods. I think the Umbers forces inside of Winterfel are going to revolt and in the middle of the night raise the gate all Trojan Horse style. Then the Umber green boys + the huge Manderly force will take Winterfel in the dead of night.

There might be more houses in league with Manderly. I dont think Manderly plans to bend the knee to Stannis even tho this was part of the deal he made with Davos. I think he just wanted to use Davos navigation skills and this was the best way to acomplish that. Hell Manderly might even have Davos killed once Rickon is safely at White Harbor. The world thinks he is all ready dead.

[Friendly Thenn]

Have a look at the GNC (Great Northern Conspiracy), which suggests that Manderly, Umber and several other prominent northern houses are planning to overthrow the Boltons and seat Rickon in Winterfell. Stannis is 100% just a means to an end for them.

[Krusty Kraken]

Yes he is, the north won't bend to Stannis, only to a Stark, I think the question is which, but I can't imagine the north going back to the seven kingdoms just like that

[Deep Like Davos]

I've been thinking about these two houses and their possible alliance.

Manderly needs wood to build a fleet. He is counseled to get the wood from the Umbers. The Umbers are counseled to supply the wood in return for shipwrights.

Per Davos' POV Manderly has his fleet. So is it possible the Umbers have one waiting between Skagos and Skane?

Could Davos be sailing to take control of this fleet (unknowingly).

There is no sea power between them and Kings Landing. Just throwing it out there.

[TheNorthernWarrior]

I've been thinking about these two houses and their possible alliance.

Manderly needs wood to build a fleet. He is counseled to get the wood from the Umbers. The Umbers are counseled to supply the wood in return for shipwrights.

Per Davos' POV Manderly has his fleet. So is it possible the Umbers have one waiting between Skagos and Skane?

Could Davos be sailing to take control of this fleet (unknowingly).

There is no sea power between them and Kings Landing. Just throwing it out there.

Good catch, and remember this whole ship building started with the Umbers wanting to protect their cost from wildlings. So why would the Manderly's end up with all the boats? It only makes sense that Umbers got something out of the deal i.e a portion of the fleet.

[Deep Like Davos]

Good catch, and remember this whole ship building started with the Umbers wanting to protect their cost from wildlings. So why would the Manderly's end up with all the boats? It only makes sense that Umbers got something out of the deal i.e a portion of the fleet.

thanks! i'm sure its been covered to death, but i wanted to type it out just in case.

[Skinner]

Trying to prop up a child King in the North on the eve of winter? With all the other problems? Good luck.

[Muggle]

Have a look at the GNC (Great Northern Conspiracy), which suggests that Manderly, Umber and several other prominent northern houses are planning to overthrow the Boltons and seat Rickon in Winterfell. Stannis is 100% just a means to an end for them.

I have the general idea of that. I really like the idea that Flint and Norrey went to Castle Black to pretty much interview Jon. Jon appears to be acting king in all but title in that chapter.

[Friendly Thenn]

I have the general idea of that. I really like the idea that Flint and Norrey went to Castle Black to pretty much interview Jon. Jon appears to be acting king in all but title in that chapter.

I noticed that too, and I'm terrified of Jon ending up with a list of titles like Dany ... Jon Snow, King in the North, Uniter of Realms, LC of the Nights Watch yada yada yada ... My own opinion is that Rickon comes back thanks to Davos with/without clans from skagos, and is named Lord of Winterfell with Manderly and Umber as regents. They will know from Rickon (and hopefully Osha!!) that Bran is alive but north of the Wall, but a Stark in Winterfell is worth 2 surrounded by Others haha ... I can see Jon returning to Winterfell to help the family but once Rickon is returned then he is KitN/Lord of Winterfell and Jon is merely a figurehead.

[yankee211]

I believe GRRM will bring an end to Roose and Ramsey just because they already had their moment in the sun in books 2 & 3. But we don't know what he will resolve the northern conspiracy, maybe the clues are there in book 5.

[Bironic]

I don't believe in the GNC, but I think there are several small northern conspiracies, with the goal to kill the Freys and Boltons.

One faction is Manderly who wants to bring back Rickon and kill off Ramsay & the Freys.

Another one could be the mountain clans, who know that at least one of the Stark kids (Bran) is still alive.

There are the Umbers who will not fight against each other, and who both want to free the Greatjon.

There are Maege Mormont, Galbart Glover who know about Robb's will and are possibly at Greywater Watch together with Howland Reed (who quite surely knows about Jon's parents) and perhaps Hallis Mollen as well(with Ned's bones).

There are the Skagosi who might have Rickon & Osha.

There is Alys Karstark, the Thenns and the captured Harrion at Maidenpool.

[Friendly Thenn]

I don't believe in the GNC, but I think there are several small northern conspiracies, with the goal to kill the Freys and Boltons.

One faction is Manderly who wants to bring back Rickon and kill off Ramsay & the Freys.

Another one could be the mountain clans, who know that at least one of the Stark kids (Bran) is still alive.

There are the Umbers who will not fight against each other, and who both want to free the Greatjon.

There are Maege Mormont, Galbart Glover who know about Robb's will and are possibly at Greywater Watch together with Howland Reed (who quite surely knows about Jon's parents) and perhaps Hallis Mollen as well(with Ned's bones).

There are the Skagosi who might have Rickon & Osha.

There is Alys Karstark, the Thenns and the captured Harrion at Maidenpool.

Manderly produces Rickon, North unites against the Boltons providing Stannis hasn't already finished them. If so, then Stannis will be thanked and wished the best of luck with his problems as the North washes its hands of him. Manderly, Umber etc will want revenge for the red wedding but others will want to prepare for winter etc.

However, if the BWB hit the wedding at Riverrun and massacre some Freys, the temptation to join the party might bring them south. Especially if the Lannisters are busy with fAegon and various trials, they will let the Freys take the heat at least initially.

If a large body of Northern troops pass through the Neck, having just restored a Stark to Winterfell, I would think that there is no better time to bring Glover, Mormont and even Greywater Watch into the picture (although not all at once because that is too much to hope for!!)

If they meet the BWB at Riverrun, who are let by Lady Stoneheart, having just essentially resurrected one of her sons, this could have a serious impact on LS's character (I hope so, because even though killing Freys is fun, i don't see her storyline going anywhere).

Returning North with the hostages, the North is looking the best it has since the red wedding. Assuming Jon survives (not guaranteed), and turns his attention to preparing the North over salvaging the Watch, (and hoping that Melisandre doesn't screw him up somehow), he would bring the trust and support of most of the wildlings and Alys Karstark-Thenn, along with leadership to the Stark cause. The mountain clans will defend the Stark in Winterfell to the death.

Lots of ifs, maybes and assumptions I know, but this is how I see some of this coming together at least, with a healthy dose of personal bias!! I don't believe the GNC as set in stone either but I agree with a lot of the elements of it.

Edit: Once Rickon is returned, people will find out that Bran is alive, and north of the wall. How this impacts the story i'm not sure, as i doubt anyone will go and get him, but at least the damage Theon did is being undone as some condolence for his horrific treatment.

[Hrulj]

Have a look at the GNC (Great Northern Conspiracy), which suggests that Manderly, Umber and several other prominent northern houses are planning to overthrow the Boltons and seat Rickon in Winterfell. Stannis is 100% just a means to an end for them.

And who do you think Stannis will seat in Winterfell? Himself? I dont think there is northern conspiracy as it is imagined.

I do believe there is one. But with the Rills. They want to find a ruler among other Northern houses, but not Bolton.

[Muggle]

I dont believe in the GNC also. Obviously some of the Northern Houses are planning there own stuff but I dont think the GNC is true. I dont think Jon will be king of anything. I do think he will lead the country in the war of the dawn tho.

I just find it really odd how far in the dark Stannis is with his supposed "allies" Im really surprised he has not heard the truth of Winterfel from the survivors of Winterfel.

Also I find that Mance is working with Umber and Manderly more believable then the GNC.

When Mance left the wall he asked for 6 women. This is before it was known fArya was in Winterfel. Every one thought Arya would but on the kings road. Why did he need 6 women to find a little girl in the country side?

Mance chooses a spear wife that is most likley the daughter of Umber

In the past when Mance jumps the wall he buys a horse with silver. Umber is the furthers north land.

Umbers claim no one enters there land with out them knowing.

When introduced to Jon Mance says some people call him The Mance. The mountain clans have village heroes. These heroes battle with great large two handed swords and the winner will be given the title of The. Mance fights with a 2 handed great sword.

None of the great houses came to the Wall to help stop the King Beyond the Wall. This is pretty odd in its self. Umbers came to the aid of the NW not even 100 years ago to stop the last King.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

I don't believe in the GNC, but I think there are several small northern conspiracies, with the goal to kill the Freys and Boltons.

One faction is Manderly who wants to bring back Rickon and kill off Ramsay & the Freys.

Another one could be the mountain clans, who know that at least one of the Stark kids (Bran) is still alive.

There are the Umbers who will not fight against each other, and who both want to free the Greatjon.

There are Maege Mormont, Galbart Glover who know about Robb's will and are possibly at Greywater Watch together with Howland Reed (who quite surely knows about Jon's parents) and perhaps Hallis Mollen as well(with Ned's bones).

There are the Skagosi who might have Rickon & Osha.

There is Alys Karstark, the Thenns and the captured Harrion at Maidenpool.

And none of these support Stannis. I think he's definitely being used as a means to rid the North of the Boltons and then the North plans to rid themselves of Stannis. His chances of surviving the next book don't look promising.

[Hrulj]

And none of these support Stannis. I think he's definitely being used as a means to rid the North of the Boltons and then the North plans to rid themselves of Stannis. His chances of surviving the next book don't look promising.

That theory would entail that Stannis plans to declare himself king in the North. Which he doesnt.

All he does is that North remains part of 7Kingdoms.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

That theory would entail that Stannis plans to declare himself king in the North. Which he doesnt.

All he does is that North remains part of 7Kingdoms.

Which is something the North is not interested in. I really don't see Rickon being the Stark that kneeled. What's more, I see the Northern lords actively trying to rid themselves of Stannis not waiting for him to go away.

[Hrulj]

Which is something the North is not interested in. I really don't see Rickon being the Stark that kneeled. What's more, I see the Northern lords actively trying to rid themselves of Stannis not waiting for him to go away.

You do understand how dishonorable that would be? Stannis placed the boy on the throne. Boy owed him the loyalty. If North indeed does that, then they all deserve to die. Stannis should go back to the wall and destroy the gates and tear it down. Let them all die.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

You do understand how dishonorable that would be? Stannis placed the boy on the throne. Boy owed him the loyalty. If North indeed does that, then they all deserve to die. Stannis should go back to the wall and destroy the gates and tear it down. Let them all die.

Stannis didn't place anyone anywhere. He doesn't even know that Davos is looking for him. But yes, he'll be very disappointed and this might cause a huge rift between him and Davos which would spell the end for Stannis. Either way, he's doomed. Finally, Stannis is not above dishonorable acts. As far as he's concerned, the end justifies the means.

[Hrulj]

Stannis didn't place anyone anywhere. He doesn't even know that Davos is looking for him. But yes, he'll be very disappointed and this might cause a huge rift between him and Davos which would spell the end for Stannis. Either way, he's doomed. Finally, Stannis is not above dishonorable acts. As far as he's concerned, the end justifies the means.

Stannis is trying to place a Stark back to Winterfell. The North before Stannis bowed to Boltons. If that happens I hope Stannis opens the wall for walkers, and relases Ramsay and Roose if he captures them. And then proceeds to burn the North to the ground