Jump to content

Heresy 153


Black Crow

Recommended Posts

Welcome to Heresy 153, and its continuing sideways look at the Song of Ice and Fire.



So what’s it all about about - and why has it been running continuously for over three years now?



The short answer is that it is a free-flowing discussion, or argument if you will, largely but not exclusively concerned with the Wall, the Heart of Darkness which lies beyond it, and the Stark connection to both – or in short, Winter. The Heresy itself, is not a particular theory far less a belief or set of beliefs, formulated and defended, but simply a way of thinking that openly challenges some of those easy assumptions that the Others are the ultimate enemy and that it only awaits the unmasking of Jon Snow as Azor Ahai and the rightful heir to the Iron Throne [or the other way around] for the story to reach its epic conclusion in a great battle pitting Dany’s amazing dragons and three dragonriders against the icy hordes.



We are of course rather encouraged in this scepticism by the recent release of GRRM’s original synopsis from 1993, as transcribed below. While the story has obviously changed and moved in interesting directions since its original conception, the synopsis does indeed confirm the white walkers [then the neverborn] being created rather than bred – hence the Craster’s sons business – and just as importantly it also confirms that the overall story does not revolve around the question of Jon Snow’s mother, but rather that is just one relatively minor plot device in an altogether much larger story.



Beyond that, read on.



If new to Heresy you may also want to refer to to Wolfmaid's essential guide to Heresy: http://asoiaf.wester...uide-to-heresy/, which provides annotated links to all the previous editions of Heresy, latterly identified by topic.



Don’t be intimidated by the size and scope of Heresy, or by some of the ideas we’ve discussed over the years. We’re very good at talking in circles and we don’t mind going over old ground again, especially with a fresh pair of eyes, so just ask, but be patient and observe the local house rules that the debate be conducted by reference to the text, with respect for the ideas of others, and above all with great good humour.




Link to comment
Share on other sites

Full text of GRRM's letter to his agent, Ralph Vicinanza:



October 1993



Dear Ralph,



Here are the first thirteen chapters (170 pages) of the high fantasy novel I promised you, which I'm calling A Game of Thrones. When completed, this will be the first volume in what I see as an epic trilogy with the overall title, A Song of Ice and Fire.



As you know, I don't outline my novels. I find that if I know exactly where a book is going, I lose all interest in writing it. I do, however, have some strong notions as to the overall structure of the story I'm telling, and the eventual fate of many of the principle [sic] characters in the drama.



Roughly speaking, there are three major conflicts set in motion in the chapters enclosed. These will form the major plot threads of the trilogy, intertwining with each other in what should be a complex but exciting (I hope) narrative tapestry. Each of the conflicts presents a major threat to the peace of my imaginary realm, the Seven Kingdoms, and to the lives of the principal characters.



The first threat grows from the enmity between the great houses of Lannister and Stark as it plays out in a cycle of plot, counterplot, ambition, murder, and revenge, with the iron throne of the Seven Kingdoms as the ultimate prize. This will form the backbone of the first volume of the trilogy, A Game of Thrones.



While the lion of Lannister and the direwolf of Stark snarl and scrap, however, a second and greater threat takes shape across the narrow sea, where the Dothraki horselords mass their barbarians hordes for a great invasion of the Seven Kingdoms, led by the fierce and beautiful Daenerys Stormborn, the last of the Targaryen dragonlords. The Dothraki invasion will be the central story of my second volume,A Dance with Dragons.



The greatest danger of all, however, comes from the north, from the icy wastes beyond the Wall, where half-forgotten demons out of legend, the inhuman others, raise cold legions of the undead and the neverborn and prepare to ride down on the winds of winter to extinguish everything that we would call "life." The only thing that stands between the Seven Kingdoms and and endless night is the Wall, and a handful of men in black called the Night's Watch. Their story will be the heart of my third volume, The Winds of Winter. The final battle will also draw together characters and plot threads left from the first two books and resolve all in one huge climax.



The thirteen chapters on hand should give you a notion as to my narrative strategy. All three books will feature a complex mosaic of intercutting points-of-view among various of my large and diverse cast of players. The cast will not always remains the same. Old characters will die, and new ones will be introduced. Some of the fatalities will include sympathetic viewpoint characters. I want the reader to feel that no one is ever completely safe, not even the characters who seem to be the heroes. The suspense always ratchets up a notch when you know that any character can die at any time.



Five central characters will make it through all three volumes, however, growing from children to adults and changing the world and themselves in the process. In a sense, my trilogy is almost a generational saga, telling the life stories of these five characters, three men and two women. The five key players are Tyrion Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen, and three of the children of Winterfell, Arya, Bran, and the bastard Jon Snow. All of them are introduced at some length in the chapters you have to hand.



This is going to be (I hope) quite an epic. Epic in its scale, epic in its action, and epic in its length. I see all three volumes as big books, running about 700 to 800 manuscript pages, so things are just barely getting underway in the thirteen chapters I've sent you.



I have quite a clear notion of how the story is going to unfold in the first volume, A Game of Thrones. Things will get a lot worse for the poor Starks before they get better, I'm afraid. Lord Eddard Stark and his wife Catelyn Tully are both doomed, and will perish at the hands of their enemies. Ned will discover what happened to his friend Jon Arryn, but before he can act on his knowledge, King Robert will have an unfortunate accident, and the throne will pass to his sullen and brutal son Joffrey, still a minor. Joffrey will not be sympathetic and Ned will be accused of treason, but before he is taken he will help his wife and his daughter escape back to Winterfell.



Each of the contending families will learn it has a member of dubious loyalty in its midst. Sansa Stark, wed to Joffrey Baratheon, will bear him a son, the heir to the throne, and when the crunch comes she will choose her husband and child over her parents and siblings, a choice she will later bitterly rue. Tyrion Lannister, meanwhile, befriend both Sansa and her sister Arya, while growing more and more disenchanted with his own family.



Young Bran will come out of his coma, after a strange prophetic dream, only to discover that he will never walk again. He will turn to magic, at first in the hope of restoring his legs, but later for its own sake. When his father Eddard Stark is executed, Bran will see the shape of doom descending on all of them, but nothing he can say will stop his brother Robb from calling the banners in rebellion. All the north will be inflamed by war. Robb will win several splendid victories, and maim Joffrey Baratheon on the battlefield, but in the end he will not be able to stand against Jaime and Tyrion Lannister and their allies. Robb Stark will die in battle, and Tyrion Lannister will besiege and burn Winterfell.



Jon Snow, the bastard, will remain in the far north. He will mature into a ranger of great daring, and ultimately will succeed his uncle as the commander of the Night's Watch. When Winterfell burns, Catelyn Stark will be forced to flee north with her son Bran and her daughter Arya. Hounded by Lannister riders, they will seek refuge at the Wall, but the men of the Night's Watch give up their families when they take the black, and Jon and Benjen will not be able to help, to Jon's anguish. It will lead to a bitter estrangement between Jon and Bran. Arya will be more forgiving... until she realizes, with terror, that she has fallen in love with Jon, who is not only her half-brother but a man of the Night's Watch, sworn to celibacy. Their passion will continue to torment Jon and Arya throughout the trilogy, until the secret of Jon's true parentage is finally revealed in the last book.



Abandoned by the Night's Watch, Catelyn and her children will find their only hope of safety lies even further north, beyond the Wall, where they fall into the hands of Mance Rayder, the King-beyond-the-Wall, and get a dreadful glimpse of the inhuman others as they attack the wildling encampment. Bran's magic, Arya's sword Needle, and the savagery of their direwolves will help them survive, but their mother Catelyn will die at the hands of the others.



Over across the narrow sea, Daenerys Targaryen will discover that her new husband, the Dothraki Khal Drogo, has little interest in invading the Seven Kingdoms, much to her brother's frustration. When Viserys presses his claims past the point of tact or wisdom, Khal Drogo will finally grow annoyed and kill him out of hand, eliminating the Targaryen pretender and leaving Daenerys as the last of her line. Daenerys will bide her time, but she will not forget. When the moment is right, she will kill her husband to avenge her brother, and then flee with a trusted friend into the wilderness beyond Vaes Dothrak. There, hunted by Dothraki bloodriders [?] of her life, she stumbles on a cache of dragon's eggs [?] of a young dragon will give Daenerys the power to bend the Dothraki to her will. Then she begins to plan for her invasion of the Seven Kingdoms.



Tyrion Lannister will continue to travel, to plot, and to play the game of thrones, finally removing his nephew Joffrey in disgust at the boy king's brutality. Jaime Lannister will follow Joffrey on the throne of the Seven Kingdoms, by the simple expedient of killing everyone ahead of him in the line of succession and blaming his brother Tyrion for the murders. Exiled, Tyrion will change sides, making common cause with surviving Starks to bring his brother down, and falling helplessly in love with Arya Stark while he's at it. His passion is, alas, unreciprocated, but no less intense for that, and it will lead to a deadly rivalry between Tyrion and Snow.



[7 Lines Redacted]



But that's the second book...



I hope you'll find some editors who are as excited about all of this as I am. Feel free to share this letter with anyone who wants to know how the story will go.



All best,


George R.R. Martin



And then continuing the story with what was the synopsis/publisher’s blurb for the third book in the proposed trilogy:



Continuing the most imaginative and ambitious epic fantasy since The Lord of the Rings Winter has come at last and no man can say whether it will ever go again. The Wall is broken, the cold dead legions are coming south, and the people of the Seven Kingdoms turn to their queen to protect them. But Daenerys Targaryen is learning what Robert Baratheon learned before her; that it is one thing to win a throne and quite another to sit on one. Before she can hope to defeat the Others, Dany knows she must unite the broken realm behind her. Wolf and lion must hunt together, maester and greenseer work as one, all the blood feuds must be put aside, the bitter rivals and sworn enemies join hands. The Winds of Winter tells the story of Dany’s fight to save her new-won kingdom, of two desperate journeys beyond the known world in to the very hearts of ice and fire, and of the final climactic battle at Winterfell, with life itself in the balance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, what of the present. The story has clearly moved on in a number of directions but the overall message from the synopsis is that the story is not about Jon Snow and the return of the Targaryen King, but about the bitter feud between the Starks and the Lannisters, and its against that background that we continue our discussion as to what was really happening at Harrenhal and afterwards, and whether Prince Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna Stark was motivated by prophecy or by realpolitick in a game of thrones begun long before Ser Waymar Royce bumped into Craster's boys.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed. But where did they come from, and why did Rhaegar plan them long before the Tourney?

If you want to know where blue roses come from, Rudyard Kipling might say "from the arms of Death...beyond the grave." :eek: In story, it's not as clearly stated as some would have you believe that the actual flower (the winter rose, as opposed to the Stark daughter) can only be grown at Winterfell.

Otherwise - odd as it may sound, I think Rhaegar had an overly high opinion of himself. My guess is that, amid all those dead smiles, he realized he needed to step back and reconsider a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we can try to shed some light on the timeline of the Tourney of Harrenhal... if we are to believe the calculations (from sources in the novel as well as inTWOIAF):



The tourney was planned in 280 when Rhaegar sent Oswell Whent to talk with Walter Whent.


In 280 Rhaegar married Elia and Rhaenys was born


It's suggested by TWOIAF that Walter didn't have the money for the prizes, and someone else was backing it



The False Spring of 281 lasted 2 months or so


Snow started falling at the end of the New Year, and Aerys had fires lit for a month, but Rhaegar never saw them



This places the False Spring from 10/31/281 to 12/31/281


This places the Tourney of Harrenhal somewhere in the middle, since people journeyed there while the winds were warm from the South, and it lasted 7 days.



While the fires against the Winter were lit in KL, Elia was said to be on Dragonstone with Aegon, but Rhaegar wasn't there


This is strange because Aegon is never mentioned at the Tourney.


Elia breastfed. Elia was never mentioned to be pregnant there. Either way, for Rhaegar to allow his precious PTWP to be endangered by a trip while still in the womb of a very delicate mother, or very newborn and breastfeeding, is weird. Note that it was Aegon's conception date that was significant to Rhaegar, not his birth date.



Aegon aside, this is what happens next


At the start of the New Year, Rhaegar takes off with a half-dozen companions, missing the fires in King's Landing



Travel companions are probably Arthur Dayne, Oswell Whent (JonCon, Lewyn Martell and Gerold Hightower we believe stayed back in KL), and who else? Myles Mooton and Richard Lonmouth are likely. Mooton are killed at the BotB, so if he was with Rhaegar during Lyanna's abduction, he left them at some point. Lonmouth is MIA.



This leaves several spots in Rhaegar's party unaccounted for.



Sometime during his journey, he comes across Lyanna


There is no mention of him being gone for months, and Harrenhal isn't very far from either Dragonstone or KL



This realistically places Lyanna near Harrenhal not long after the Tourney.


Unless she was out riding alone (likely but hardly something any noble house hosting her would allow), she also had to have companions.



If he left for the New Year, wasn't missing that long and then came across Lyanna, this is likely no later than 1/31/282 or somewhere near that date.



This means that when Lyanna was abducted, no more than 2 months or so had passed since Harrenhal. This is huge because it opens doors to Harrenhal -conceived babies (both Lyanna and Ashara).



And it also means that we should identify whatever witnesses were there during the supposed abduction, because someone had to report the story.



-



I have a few thoughts about this mess, but if anyone can help me nail down the timeline, that would be great.



TL;DR The new information from TWOIAF changes the timeline, and therefore changes all theories that were either supported or proven wrong according to the old timeline.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you want to know where blue roses come from, Rudyard Kipling might say "from the arms of Death...beyond the grave." :eek: In story, it's not as clearly stated as some would have you believe that the actual flower (the winter rose, as opposed to the Stark daughter) can only be grown at Winterfell.

Its an interesting point. We're told of them being grown in the glass gardens [heated greenhouses to you and me] at Winterfell, which suggests that they are not native to those parts and that in turn argues that they have either been brought in from somewhere further south or were, originally at least, bred there. That they are also known as Winter roses suggests the latter and hence the seeming association with the Starks.

It does occur to me though that as with most things in this everyday tale of simple countryfolk, there are different ways of interpreting the business of the garland.

Why did Rhaegar use a garland of blue roses, and use them so publically. Is he really declaring his undying love for a young maiden not his wife [who also happens to be watching] or is there something more sinister going on? Has he taken leave of his senses or is he rejecting an overture made by those Starks with southron ambitions? Is he in effect saying, "here, you can have your roses back, I'm not buying."?

If so that would be consistent both with their unhappy reaction and with his abduction of Lyanna some months later having a political rather than a romantic motive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a thought about the False Spring:





The tourney was planned in 280 when Rhaegar sent Oswell Whent to talk with Walter Whent...



This places the False Spring from 10/31/281 to 12/31/281





I don't see how the tourney could have been planned and announced as early as 280 unless the winter was already perceived as being clearly on the way out.



Surely you wouldn't plan to have a tourney in what might still be winter. You'd wait until you were sure spring was on the way.



Late 280: Spring seems clearly to be on the way. Tourney is planned


Early-mid 281: False spring well underway. Tourney happens. Aegon is conceived.


Later in 281: "Spring" is seen to fade out after only two months and the maesters admit their error


Late 281: Winter "returns with a vengeance," meaning it gets exceptionally cold even in southron Westeros and Aegon is born


Very early 282: Rhaegar on the road with his six companions


Some time after this in 282: Rhaegar "abducts" Lyanna


A few weeks after this: Rebellion begins


A year after this, in 283: Sack



This would be in accordance with various direct statements of GRRM over the years, like the one about the Harrenhal tourney happening "a year or two" before the rebellion began.



Aegon's birth and his GRRM-stated age at the time of the Sack (of being about a year old) also fit this premise.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you want to know where blue roses come from, Rudyard Kipling might say "from the arms of Death...beyond the grave." :eek: In story, it's not as clearly stated as some would have you believe that the actual flower (the winter rose, as opposed to the Stark daughter) can only be grown at Winterfell.

Otherwise - odd as it may sound, I think Rhaegar had an overly high opinion of himself. My guess is that, amid all those dead smiles, he realized he needed to step back and reconsider a bit.

Yes, I think they came from Winterfell. How, that is the question. And since TWOIAF infers that Rhaegar planned the ToH, he must have planned the laurels as well as the prizes.

As discussed in the last thread, Rhaegar never crowns Lyanna, she only appears crowned in a gore-spattered gown at Theon's death party. So you are right with the death thing.

We also have the "born with the dead" comment way back in AGoT chapter one. What a weird random comment, never explained or revisited.

Also the wiki is a joke. Ned never says Lyanna's statue has a garland. He only imagines her with the garland in a dream/memory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a thought about the False Spring:

I don't see how the tourney could have been planned and announced as early as 280 unless the winter was already perceived as being clearly on the way out.

Surely you wouldn't plan to have a tourney in what might still be winter. You'd wait until you were sure spring was on the way.

Late 280: Spring seems clearly to be on the way. Tourney is planned

Early-mid 281: False spring well underway. Tourney happens. Aegon is conceived.

Later in 281: "Spring" is seen to fade out after only two months and the maesters admit their error

Late 281: Winter "returns with a vengeance," meaning it gets exceptionally cold even in southron Westeros and Aegon is born

Very early 282: Rhaegar on the road with his six companions

Some time after this in 282: Rhaegar "abducts" Lyanna

A few weeks after this: Rebellion begins

A year after this, in 283: Sack

This would be in accordance with various direct statements of GRRM over the years, like the one about the Harrenhal tourney happening "a year or two" before the rebellion began.

Aegon's birth and his GRRM-stated age at the time of the Sack (of being about a year old) also fit this premise.

I don't believe Winter had anything to do with planning the Tourney, as other tourneys happened during Winter in the past.

The false spring lasted "a turn or two" in SSMs and "less than two turns" in TWOIAF, so 6 weeks ish, making the timeline even shorter. And the ToH lasts a week. So the early/mid-281 date for the ToH does not compute, to me if The False Spring had a definite end, and Winter returned with a vengeance (that hardly sounds gradual). Unless I'm not getting something, which is possible :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The false spring lasted "a turn or two" in SSMs and "less than two turns" in TWOIAF, so 6 weeks ish, making the timeline even shorter. And the ToH lasts a week. So the early/mid-281 date for the ToH does not compute, to me if The False Spring had a definite end, and Winter returned with a vengeance (that hardly sounds gradual). Unless I'm not getting something, which is possible :)

Well, GRRM is on the record telling us that there was a year or two between the tourney and the start of the rebellion.

I just can't see collapsing 1-2 years to a couple of months... which we must do if the tourney was only shortly before Lyanna was "abducted."

Another way to put this: we have a reference in the World book to winter returning with a vengeance very late in the year, which could mean that was the moment when the False Spring ended. Against that, we have the flat statement of GRRM above.

So we can choose which we want to believe.

Yes, I think they came from Winterfell. How, that is the question. And since TWOIAF infers that Rhaegar planned the ToH, he must have planned the laurels as well as the prizes.

It's a very interesting situation.

If we presume there's a good symbolic match between winter roses and Stark maidens, and I think that seems safe enough, then we have to wonder how good a fit this crown would have been for anyone but Lyanna.

Imagine for instance that Selmy got his wish and unhorsed Rhaegar and named Ashara.

Is it a good fit -- a crown of blue winter roses for Ashara Dayne of Dorne? Doesn't seem so, to me.

This implies two things:

1. Rhaegar had this crown prepared in advance, and it was not a crown meant for any woman -- only Lyanna

2. Rhaegar knew in advance that he would win the tourney (because he couldn't have been sure anyone else would name Lyanna)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, GRRM is on the record telling us that there was a year or two between the tourney and the start of the rebellion.

I just can't see collapsing 1-2 years to a couple of months... which we must do if the tourney was only shortly before Lyanna was "abducted."

Another way to put this: we have a reference in the World book to winter returning with a vengeance very late in the year, which could mean that was the moment when the False Spring ended. Against that, we have the flat statement of GRRM above.

So we can choose which we want to believe.

I'm suspicious of most SSMs made before/while GRRM was re-working the 5 year gap. No canon text information defines details of the year of the False Spring in the novels. Precisely zero of the mentions of The False Spring up to ASOS (2000) put it in a timeline. Sometime between 2000 and 2005 (ACoK) GRRM rewords the timeline. That statement is from 2003, so who knows what was going on in his head.

We do get this from Meera in AGoT, which can't have taken much time.

All that winter the crannogman stayed on the isle, but when the spring broke he heard the wide world calling and knew the time had come to leave. His skin boat was just where he'd left it, so he said his farewells and paddled off toward shore. He rowed and rowed, and finally saw the distant towers of a castle rising beside the lake. The towers reached ever higher as he neared shore, until he realized that this must be the greatest castle in all the world

Sigh, not to belabor. But this is why I think all bets are off with many of the accepted timelines.

It's a very interesting situation.

If we presume there's a good symbolic match between winter roses and Stark maidens, and I think that seems safe enough, then we have to wonder how good a fit this crown would have been for anyone but Lyanna.

Imagine for instance that Selmy got his wish and unhorsed Rhaegar and named Ashara.

Is it a good fit -- a crown of blue winter roses for Ashara Dayne of Dorne? Doesn't seem so, to me.

This implies two things:

1. Rhaegar had this crown prepared in advance, and it was not a crown meant for any woman -- only Lyanna

2. Rhaegar knew in advance that he would win the tourney (because he couldn't have been sure anyone else would name Lyanna)

1. Agreed. Which means Rhaegar ordered the laurel, the roses probably had to come from Winterfell, and the Starks couldn't know in advance. Very weird.

2. I think the tourney was rigged for the most part.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are we reading too much into the symbolism of the blue roses? Were they the prize for winning the tournament, so that if Rheagar had not won, someone else as winner would have presented them to some other lady of his choice?

I refer to my post #6 above, being of the opinion that there was indeed a symbolism to the blue roses and that it wasn't the answer Rickard and Brandon wanted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, GRRM is on the record telling us that there was a year or two between the tourney and the start of the rebellion.

I just can't see collapsing 1-2 years to a couple of months... which we must do if the tourney was only shortly before Lyanna was "abducted."

Another way to put this: we have a reference in the World book to winter returning with a vengeance very late in the year, which could mean that was the moment when the False Spring ended. Against that, we have the flat statement of GRRM above.

So we can choose which we want to believe.

We don't know the context of that SSM since it appears to be a third party contribution and isn't part of an interview. GRRM's caveat that he didn't have his notes with him suggests that he was rather taken by surprise and may not have been connecting it with the Harrenhal tournament.

As to the business of the false spring lasting two turns, I think that might be most sensibly be explained by how it was divined in the first place. If we look at the formal announcement of Winter at the end of ADwD, it wasn't a prediction but a confirmation. The same was probably true of the False Spring, ie; after a prolonged period of good weather the Citadel consulted their dried fish and their tea-leaves, then stuck their necks out and said yes, this long spell of good weather we've been having is indeed the start of spring with a long summer to come. And then it was two turns after this official announcement, rather than two months after it first started getting warmer, that the weather turned bad again and everybody resigned themselves to two more years of hot water bottles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm suspicious of most SSMs made before/while GRRM was re-working the 5 year gap.

I'm not sure why the five-year gap would matter, since it would pertain to events following ASOS, whereas Harrenhal happened long before AGOT?

I agree with you, though, that the canon could be much clearer on this. If Harrenhal really were only a couple of months before Lyanna vanished, we have a a wide world of new possibilities to consider.

We do get this from Meera in AGoT, which can't have taken much time.

Sigh, not to belabor. But this is why I think all bets are off with many of the accepted timelines.

Where's the conflict? Howland goes to the Isle, hangs out over winter, and then when the false spring shows up, goes north to tourney. Meera doesn't give us any dates, so I don't see any problems.

We don't know the context of that SSM since it appears to be a third party contribution and isn't part of an interview. GRRM's caveat that he didn't have his notes with him suggests that he was rather taken by surprise and may not have been connecting it with the Harrenhal tournament.

If you buy the SSM, a lot of time passed between the tourney and the rebellion no matter how you slice it.

Assume the tourney happened in late 281, per Maester Sam and Weasel Pie. Therefore, the year of the false spring ended shortly after the tourney. Now we must still wait another twelve months or so, at least, before the rebellion begins or GRRM's statement makes no sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you buy the SSM, a lot of time passed between the tourney and the rebellion no matter how you slice it.

Assume the tourney happened in late 281, per Maester Sam and Weasel Pie. Therefore, the year of the false spring ended shortly after the tourney. Now we must still wait another twelve months or so, at least, before the rebellion begins or GRRM's statement makes no sense.

Hence the second part of my post pointing out that that the warm weather probably began long before the official announcement in October and that the tournament some time before that - rather than trying to cram everything into a couple of months either side of Christmas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A thought re:

... the overall message from the synopsis is that the story is not about Jon Snow and the return of the Targaryen King, but about the bitter feud between the Starks and the Lannisters...

Wasn't the "overall message" that this Stark-Lannister feud was just the first of three major threats/storylines originally planned? And one of the others actually was the return of a Targaryen scion - but a Queen, rather than a King?

I'm with you, BC, as far as repudiating the notion that everything in these books revolves around Jon Snow... and, at this point, I don't see any way he turns out to be a Targ. But he clearly is the central character in at least one of our three major storylines. (We know that just from chapter counts.) With that in mind, I'd be careful about writing off the mystery of his paternal descent. The fact that Martin continues to withhold that information, two-thirds of the way (or more) through his epic, tells me it's not insignificant.

More generally, if there's one valuable thing in that 1993 letter "outline" that may be useful to guide our discussions, it's Martin's clear identification of these three separate but interwoven storylines that comprise his masterpiece.

The basic mistake made in the RLJ threads is not merely that Jon Snow is billed as "the biggest star;" it's that these three separate storylines are conflated and handled as (essentially) one narrative. Saying here that "the story is not about Jon Snow, but about [X]" misses that point, and, ironically, makes almost the same mistake in reverse when it comes to Jon Snow. Because if Jon can be said to star in any of Martin's three main storylines - and I think he can - then it's certainly the storyline Heresy has most concerned itself with these last three years...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We don't know the context of that SSM since it appears to be a third party contribution and isn't part of an interview. GRRM's caveat that he didn't have his notes with him suggests that he was rather taken by surprise and may not have been connecting it with the Harrenhal tournament.

As to the business of the false spring lasting two turns, I think that might be most sensibly be explained by how it was divined in the first place. If we look at the formal announcement of Winter at the end of ADwD, it wasn't a prediction but a confirmation. The same was probably true of the False Spring, ie; after a prolonged period of good weather the Citadel consulted their dried fish and their tea-leaves, then stuck their necks out and said yes, this long spell of good weather we've been having is indeed the start of spring with a long summer to come. And then it was two turns after this official announcement, rather than two months after it first started getting warmer, that the weather turned bad again and everybody resigned themselves to two more years of hot water bottles.

I'm not sure why the five-year gap would matter, since it would pertain to events following ASOS, whereas Harrenhal happened long before AGOT?

I agree with you, though, that the canon could be much clearer on this. If Harrenhal really were only a couple of months before Lyanna vanished, we have a a wide world of new possibilities to consider.

Where's the conflict? Howland goes to the Isle, hangs out over winter, and then when the false spring shows up, goes north to tourney. Meera doesn't give us any dates, so I don't see any problems.

If you buy the SSM, a lot of time passed between the tourney and the rebellion no matter how you slice it.

Assume the tourney happened in late 281, per Maester Sam and Weasel Pie. Therefore, the year of the false spring ended shortly after the tourney. Now we must still wait another twelve months or so, at least, before the rebellion begins or GRRM's statement makes no sense.

My quote from Meera shows that Howland was on the Isle of Faces for the winter, and when then weather got nice, he rowed to the shore, immediately seeing Harrenhal. There isn't much "north" to go,he just rows across the lake.

He also didn't need a Maester to tell him the weather was nice, and he only has a very limited time (less than two months) to notice Winter is end/Spring is here, hook up with the Starks, and attend the Tourney which lasted 7 days.

There could have been no prolonged process either from the Citadel or from personal observation for that to happen.

The 281 ToH date is from TWOIAF, 281 was the year of the False Spring, which only lasted less than two months during that year, after which Winter returned with a vengeance. Again, I don't see a ton of time passing.

The thing with the old SSM's is we don't know how GRRM changed the details/direction of the story. Obviously quite a bit, if certain romances were planned then made quasi-impossible without the gap. And BC is correct to say "consider the source."

Also to be kept in mind: GRRM didn't offer a ton of dates. They were mostly fan-extrapolated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...