Aegon Blackfyre theory.

[Ser Triston Stark]

THE THEORY

Aegon (Little Griff) is not actually the baby of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell, but is a Blackfyre impostor that Varys and Illyrio Mopatis are propping up as a real Targaryen. He is descended from the female Blackfyre line (all the males were killed). An additional variation to the theory is that Aegon is the child of Illyrio and his late wife Serra, who may have been a Blackfyre. Some think Varys may also have Blackfyre blood in him.

ARGUMENTS FOR

.

MUMMER'S DRAGON VISION

One of Dany's visions in the House of the Undying:

. . . Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . .

ACOK 48: DAENERYS IV

Dany later discusses the vision with Jorah:

“A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood . . . what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer’s dragon, you said. What is a mummer’s dragon, pray?”

“A cloth dragon on poles,” Dany explained. “Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight.”

ACOK 63: DAENERYS V

A "mummer's dragon" or fake dragon could be an metaphor for Aegon being a Blackfyre, and not a true dragon (i.e. Targaryen). The line "slayer of lies" may indicate that Aegon is one of the lies Dany may need to slay. Another way to interpret this is to say that Varys is the mummer and Aegon is the cloth dragon he is propping up. Varys is referred to as a mummer on several occasions.

THE GOLDEN COMPANY

Illyrio and Tyrion discuss the GC breaking it's contract:

“I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.”

“Myr.” Illyrio smirked. “Contracts can be broken.”

“There is more coin in cheese than I knew,” said Tyrion. “How did you accomplish that?”

The magister waggled his fat fingers. “Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more.”

... [Tyrion gives a history of the Golden Company and it's Blackfyre past] ...

“I admire your powers of persuasion,” Tyrion told Illyrio. “How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?”

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. “Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre.” The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. “And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.”

ADWD 5: TYRION II

This quote is the best evidence for the Blackfyre theory and offers a lot of insight. The GC was originally founded by Bittersteel (Daemon Blackfyre's half-brother and closest ally), and their original mission was to seat a Blackfyre on the throne. Even after Daemon was killed in the first Blackfyre rebellion, Bittersteel tried several more times to seat one of Daemon's heirs on the throne until the last male heir died.

The GC has never broken a contract, but if it meant fulfilling their original mission statement this makes sense. While the broken Myr contract was written in "ink" the mission to restore a Blackfyre to the throne was written in "blood". This is also supported by the GC's motto: "Beneath the gold, the bitter steel."

Illyrio's justification for the GC breaking contract is that "black or red, a dragon is still a dragon". Meaning they don't care if it's a Targaryen or Blackfyre they're backing at this point so long as he leads them to Westeros. However, this seems to contradict a recollection Dany has:

Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him.

ADWD 16: DAENERYS III

It would seem they turned down Viserys, a red dragon, so maybe they still do care. Miles 'Blackheart' Toyne (former GC captain) is the one who made the contract with Illyrio in secret, and given the Toynes' bloody feud with the Targaryens it wouldn't make sense for him to make that contract to back a Targ. [read more about it here courtesy of feldman10]

ILLYRIO & SERRA

Another interesting tidbit from Illyrio in the above quote includes him specifically saying the male Blackfyre line was extinguished. This would seem to indicate a female line survived. That female could have been Illyrio's late wife Serra. Here is what he says of her:

Illyrio thrust his right hand up his left sleeve and drew out a silver locket. Inside was a painted likeness of a woman with big blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked by silver. “Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough, for Serra.”

...

“Good fortune,” Illyrio called after them. “Tell the boy I am sorry that I will not be with him for his wedding. I will rejoin you in Westeros. That I swear, by my sweet Serra’s hands.”

ADWD 5: TYRION II

We know from this that Serra has Valyrian features, blue eyes and silver-blonde hair. Although it should be noted that many people in Lys have Valyrian features as they were part of the Valyrian Freehold. Also, purple eyes are a more Targaryen feature than blue. From the last line we see that Illyrio has a very personal stake in Aegon's success and speaks very fondly of the boy. It's possible Aegon is Illyrio and Serra's son (with Serra being a Blackfyre). This would explain why Illyrio had a chest full of clothing meant for a small boy. It would also help explain why Illyrio is even interested in Westeros. He has all the money he could ever need and Tyrion even seems skeptical of Illyrio's motivations:

“Are you quite certain that Daenerys will make good her brother’s promises?”

“She will, or she will not.” Illyrio bit the egg in half. “I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay.”

Liar, thought Tyrion. There is something in this venture worth more to you than coin or castles. “You meet so few men who value friendship over gold these days.”

ADWD 5: TYRION II

So what is this "debt of affection" Illyrio looks to repay that is worth more than "coins" and "castles"? He may be trying to fulfill Serra's wish for their son to take the Iron Throne on behalf of the Blackfyres. While this all fits, it is still largely circumstantial.

Another piece of evidence possibly indicating Illyrio is Aegon's father is a statue he has in his manse that looks a lot like Aegon (Illyrio later claims it's a young version of himself)[/u/jbtalley]

A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo’s blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble, though his sword shimmered like true steel.

ADWD 1: TYRION I

SEPTON MERIBALD'S STORY

Septon Meribald tells Brienne and Pod the story of the Crossroads Inn:

"...He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon.”

“Is the dragon sign still there?” asked Podrick.

“No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust..."

AFFC 37: BRIENNE VII

This story could be an allegory for Aegon being a Blackfyre. A black dragon is Blackfyre and a red dragon is a Targaryen. So the black dragons (Blackfyres) were forced across the Narrow Sea and many years later one of them (Aegon) rusted over and now appears to be a red dragon (Targ).

VARYS IS A BLACKFYRE

Varys being a Blackfyre is the most speculative part of the theory and need not be true for the other parts to be true. The evidence for it is entirely circumstantial, but it does explain some inconsistencies with Varys's character. Why despite claiming to be a Targaryen loyalist, he was feeding Aerys's paranoia about Rhaegar usurping the throne (according to accounts of Barristan and Jaime). Why he shaves his head, so that he can hide his Valyrian hair (although the same would be true if he were of any Valyrian descent, Blackfyre or otherwise). Also, why Varys was castrated as a boy. He tells Tyrion the following about his castration:

“One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion that made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he sliced me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke."

ACOK 44: TYRION X

We know from Melisandre's practices that sorcerers prefer to use royal blood in their rituals. If Varys was a Blackfyre he would have royal blood.

DUNK & EGG

A large portion of the Dunk & Egg novellas covers the history of the Blackfyre Rebellions. This could be hinting at a greater significance for the Blackfyres in the ASOAIF series as a whole. Of course it could also just be window dressing for the novellas and have no other significance.

AEGON BEING SAVED DOESN'T MAKE SENSE

How could Varys have known Gregor would smash baby Aegon's face beyond recognition? It's unlikely this could have been planned. [/u/jbtalley]

AGE DISCREPANCY

Aegon was born in 282AL, so by the time Tyrion meets him he should be around 18 years old. Yet here is Tyrion's description of Little Griff [/u/jbtalley]:

He was a lithe and well-made youth, with a lanky build and a shock of dark blue hair. The dwarf put his age at fifteen, sixteen, or near enough to make no matter.

ADWD 8: TYRION III

Of course it's very plausible that an 18 year old could be mistaken for 16, so I wouldn't call this strong evidence.

ADWD EARLY DRAFT

[/u/feldman10]

Earlier drafts of ADWD chapters have other clues. It is speculated that Martin cut a lot this material because it made Aegon's parentage too obvious.

From a 2005 reading of Tyrion II:

"Illyrio says he wants to give Young Griff his blessings and has a gift for him in the chests. Haldon tells him there is no time for the litter. Illyrio gets angry and says there are things Griff must know.

...

Haldon eyes Tyrion and then begins to speak in another language. Tyrion cannot tell what it is but think it might be Volantene. He catches a few words that come close to High Valyrian. The words he catches are, queen, dragon, and sword."

It has been speculated that Illyrio was going to give Young Griff "Blackfyre," the ancestral sword of House Targaryen that was taken overseas by the Blackfyres.

From Elio, who fact-checked earlier drafts of ADWD:

"An earlier draft of the "lesson" chapter had quite a bit more detail about Maelys the Monstrous and the Blackfyres (for those who have GoO's RPG, some of that information ended up in that book). I wonder why George decided to pull it from this book."

ARGUMENTS AGAINST

.

NO PROOF!

One big argument against this whole theory is that all of the evidence is basically circumstantial. That is not to say circumstantial evidence is invalid (especially in a book), but just that there is no smoking gun yet.

VARYS'S TALK WITH KEVAN

This is what Varys tells a dying Kevan Lannister:

“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. “Dead. He’s dead.”

“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

ADWD 72: EPILOGUE

Varys directly answers Kevan's question about Aegon being dead and says he isn't. Why would Varys lie about Aegon to Kevan, who he was about to kill anyways? It is unlikely that if Aegon is a Blackfyre that Varys wouldn't know, because he was likely the one who smuggled baby Aegon out of King's Landing (or didn't), so he likely knows if Aegon is really Aegon. So why lie to a dying man about it? Some possible answers are:

Varys "little birds" were present when Kevan was dying, perhaps Varys meant to keep the truth about Aegon from them. [/u/ChurchHatesTucker]

Varys perhaps didn't lie. All he said is that "Aegon" isn't dead, but never said which Aegon he was referring to. [/u/jbtalley]

Varys doesn't know Aegon is a Blackfyre. Illyrio is the only one who knows and is playing him.

[markg171]

Concerning Young Griff's age, from the appendix of Dance

YOUNG GRIFF, a blue-haired lad of eighteen years

Young Griff is 18, not 15-16 like Tyrion thought. He's the right age to be Aegon.

[UnmaskedLurker]

[snip]

Good job piecing together the evidence. I think you have demonstrated that the evidence "for" is strong and the evidence "against" is weak. I would argue that the Varys speech to Kevan actually is support for and not against the theory. If (f)Aegon really is the son of Rhaegar, Varys probably would have included that specific fact in his speech. The language is intentionally vague on that point, and thus falls into Varys's favorite speech pattern--to lie by saying words that are technically true but intended to be misunderstood by the listener. While of course GRRM might have something else in mind for the back story of (f)Aegon, all of the clues point toward a Blackfyre connection. I also would not discount the possibility of a Brighflame connection as well. One thing seems almost certain to me -- (f)Aegon is not who he thinks his is.

[In A Coat of Gold]

THE THEORY

Aegon (Little Griff) is not actually the baby of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell, but is a Blackfyre impostor that Varys and Illyrio Mopatis are propping up as a real Targaryen. He is descended from the female Blackfyre line (all the males were killed). An additional variation to the theory is that Aegon is the child of Illyrio and his late wife Serra, who may have been a Blackfyre. Some think Varys may also have Blackfyre blood in him.

ARGUMENTS FOR

.

MUMMER'S DRAGON VISION

One of Dany's visions in the House of the Undying:

. . . Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . .

ACOK 48: DAENERYS IV

Dany later discusses the vision with Jorah:

“A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood . . . what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer’s dragon, you said. What is a mummer’s dragon, pray?”

“A cloth dragon on poles,” Dany explained. “Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight.”

ACOK 63: DAENERYS V

A "mummer's dragon" or fake dragon could be an metaphor for Aegon being a Blackfyre, and not a true dragon (i.e. Targaryen). The line "slayer of lies" may indicate that Aegon is one of the lies Dany may need to slay. Another way to interpret this is to say that Varys is the mummer and Aegon is the cloth dragon he is propping up. Varys is referred to as a mummer on several occasions.

or it could be Quentyn, who kept on mentioning how he had Targ blood from generations before. Or it could be that Varys was a mummer, and is now actively plotting in Aegon's favor.

THE GOLDEN COMPANY

Illyrio and Tyrion discuss the GC breaking it's contract:

“I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.”

“Myr.” Illyrio smirked. “Contracts can be broken.”

“There is more coin in cheese than I knew,” said Tyrion. “How did you accomplish that?”

The magister waggled his fat fingers. “Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more.”

... [Tyrion gives a history of the Golden Company and it's Blackfyre past] ...

“I admire your powers of persuasion,” Tyrion told Illyrio. “How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?”

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. “Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre.” The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. “And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.”

ADWD 5: TYRION II

This quote is the best evidence for the Blackfyre theory and offers a lot of insight. The GC was originally founded by Bittersteel (Daemon Blackfyre's half-brother and closest ally), and their original mission was to seat a Blackfyre on the throne. Even after Daemon was killed in the first Blackfyre rebellion, Bittersteel tried several more times to seat one of Daemon's heirs on the throne until the last male heir died.

The GC has never broken a contract, but if it meant fulfilling their original mission statement this makes sense. While the broken Myr contract was written in "ink" the mission to restore a Blackfyre to the throne was written in "blood". This is also supported by the GC's motto: "Beneath the gold, the bitter steel."

Illyrio's justification for the GC breaking contract is that "black or red, a dragon is still a dragon". Meaning they don't care if it's a Targaryen or Blackfyre they're backing at this point so long as he leads them to Westeros. However, this seems to contradict a recollection Dany has:

Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him.

ADWD 16: DAENERYS III

It would seem they turned down Viserys, a red dragon, so maybe they still do care. Miles 'Blackheart' Toyne (former GC captain) is the one who made the contract with Illyrio in secret, and given the Toynes' bloody feud with the Targaryens it wouldn't make sense for him to make that contract to back a Targ. [read more about it here courtesy of feldman10]

From Jon Connington's meeting with the GC in ADWD

What's more likely is that they didn't want to back a beggar with no army. That's why the Dothraki marriage came about. Viserys needed troops to rally more to his side. Dany's virginity was the cost.

ILLYRIO & SERRA

Another interesting tidbit from Illyrio in the above quote includes him specifically saying the male Blackfyre line was extinguished. This would seem to indicate a female line survived. That female could have been Illyrio's late wife Serra. Here is what he says of her:

Illyrio thrust his right hand up his left sleeve and drew out a silver locket. Inside was a painted likeness of a woman with big blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked by silver. “Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough, for Serra.”

...

“Good fortune,” Illyrio called after them. “Tell the boy I am sorry that I will not be with him for his wedding. I will rejoin you in Westeros. That I swear, by my sweet Serra’s hands.”

ADWD 5: TYRION II

We know from this that Serra has Valyrian features, blue eyes and silver-blonde hair. Although it should be noted that many people in Lys have Valyrian features as they were part of the Valyrian Freehold. Also, purple eyes are a more Targaryen feature than blue. From the last line we see that Illyrio has a very personal stake in Aegon's success and speaks very fondly of the boy. It's possible Aegon is Illyrio and Serra's son (with Serra being a Blackfyre). This would explain why Illyrio had a chest full of clothing meant for a small boy. It would also help explain why Illyrio is even interested in Westeros. He has all the money he could ever need and Tyrion even seems skeptical of Illyrio's motivations:

“Are you quite certain that Daenerys will make good her brother’s promises?”

“She will, or she will not.” Illyrio bit the egg in half. “I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay.”

Liar, thought Tyrion. There is something in this venture worth more to you than coin or castles. “You meet so few men who value friendship over gold these days.”

ADWD 5: TYRION II

So what is this "debt of affection" Illyrio looks to repay that is worth more than "coins" and "castles"? He may be trying to fulfill Serra's wish for their son to take the Iron Throne on behalf of the Blackfyres. While this all fits, it is still largely circumstantial.

Another piece of evidence possibly indicating Illyrio is Aegon's father is a statue he has in his manse that looks a lot like Aegon (Illyrio later claims it's a young version of himself)[/u/jbtalley]

A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo’s blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble, though his sword shimmered like true steel.

ADWD 1: TYRION I

It's extremely implausible for Serra to be Aegon's mother because there is a major timeline squeeze. I made a thread about it.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/121396-aegonvarysillyrioawoiaf-spoilers/

SEPTON MERIBALD'S STORY

Septon Meribald tells Brienne and Pod the story of the Crossroads Inn:

"...He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon.”

“Is the dragon sign still there?” asked Podrick.

“No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust..."

AFFC 37: BRIENNE VII

This story could be an allegory for Aegon being a Blackfyre. A black dragon is Blackfyre and a red dragon is a Targaryen. So the black dragons (Blackfyres) were forced across the Narrow Sea and many years later one of them (Aegon) rusted over and now appears to be a red dragon (Targ).

Or maybe it represents the Golden Company, who in their years in exile have rusted.(fighting in petty wars between the free cities and having lost their purpose), coming back home with a red dragon at their head.

VARYS IS A BLACKFYRE

Varys being a Blackfyre is the most speculative part of the theory and need not be true for the other parts to be true. The evidence for it is entirely circumstantial, but it does explain some inconsistencies with Varys's character. Why despite claiming to be a Targaryen loyalist, he was feeding Aerys's paranoia about Rhaegar usurping the throne (according to accounts of Barristan and Jaime). Why he shaves his head, so that he can hide his Valyrian hair (although the same would be true if he were of any Valyrian descent, Blackfyre or otherwise). Also, why Varys was castrated as a boy. He tells Tyrion the following about his castration:

“One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion that made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he sliced me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke."

ACOK 44: TYRION X

We know from Melisandre's practices that sorcerers prefer to use royal blood in their rituals. If Varys was a Blackfyre he would have royal blood.

Completely speculative.

DUNK & EGG

A large portion of the Dunk & Egg novellas covers the history of the Blackfyre Rebellions. This could be hinting at a greater significance for the Blackfyres in the ASOAIF series as a whole. Of course it could also just be window dressing for the novellas and have no other significance.

The rebellions are only a backdrop for the story of D&E, and only the last one goes into any great depth at all...and even that is very little depth. The novellas are pretty damn obscure, relative to the main series. The few people I know who are fans of the series(not show) have never even read them. I have never read TPATQ. It's just a companion piece.

AEGON BEING SAVED DOESN'T MAKE SENSE

How could Varys have known Gregor would smash baby Aegon's face beyond recognition? It's unlikely this could have been planned. [/u/jbtalley]

He didn't need to know. Babies look very much the same when they are younger. Baby Aegon has fair hair. Wouldn't be that hard to find one in a huge city. Here's my chance to speculate. Baby Aegon never came to King's Landing. His father brought another fake(perhaps Ashara Dayne's child?) and passed him off while he left his son on Dragonstone. Varys would know this of course(as he knows mostly everything going on in King's Landing) After the fake was killed, Varys had the boy abducted and moved him across the sea. The daring escape story was one Varys cooked up after the fact to glorify his involvement.

AGE DISCREPANCY

Aegon was born in 282AL, so by the time Tyrion meets him he should be around 18 years old. Yet here is Tyrion's description of Little Griff [/u/jbtalley]:

He was a lithe and well-made youth, with a lanky build and a shock of dark blue hair. The dwarf put his age at fifteen, sixteen, or near enough to make no matter.

ADWD 8: TYRION III

Of course it's very plausible that an 18 year old could be mistaken for 16, so I wouldn't call this strong evidence.

No. Young Griff is 18 per ADWD Appendix. Think of the plausibility! Varys has a boy who is the same age and same coloring from an extinguished line, just sitting around waiting for Aegon to be murdered.

ADWD EARLY DRAFT

[/u/feldman10]

Earlier drafts of ADWD chapters have other clues. It is speculated that Martin cut a lot this material because it made Aegon's parentage too obvious.

From a 2005 reading of Tyrion II:

"Illyrio says he wants to give Young Griff his blessings and has a gift for him in the chests. Haldon tells him there is no time for the litter. Illyrio gets angry and says there are things Griff must know.

Why would Illyrio tell Connington that Aegon was an imposter. In the hopes that he might go along with it? He already is. At that point, he might just slit Illyrio's throat and be done with it.

...

Haldon eyes Tyrion and then begins to speak in another language. Tyrion cannot tell what it is but think it might be Volantene. He catches a few words that come close to High Valyrian. The words he catches are, queen, dragon, and sword."

It has been speculated that Illyrio was going to give Young Griff "Blackfyre," the ancestral sword of House Targaryen that was taken overseas by the Blackfyres.

From Elio, who fact-checked earlier drafts of ADWD:

"An earlier draft of the "lesson" chapter had quite a bit more detail about Maelys the Monstrous and the Blackfyres (for those who have GoO's RPG, some of that information ended up in that book). I wonder why George decided to pull it from this book."

I'm positive the GC still has the sword Blackfyre laying around. Maybe because the lesson would add more to a huge manuscript, and isn't really relevant to the story, anyhow?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

This is the subject of much debate on these boards. I'm 50/50 on it and have an ultra crackpot about a different Blackfyre candidate.

The books are definitely setting up a Blackfyre, but it wouldn't have to be Aegon (who is a mummer's dragon even if he's Rhaegar's son). The drama factor would actually be upped substantially if Aegon is exactly who he thinks he is.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

This is the subject of much debate on these boards. I'm 50/50 on it and have an ultra crackpot about a different Blackfyre candidate.

The books are definitely setting up a Blackfyre, but it wouldn't have to be Aegon (who is a mummer's dragon even if he's Rhaegar's son). The drama factor would actually be upped substantially if Aegon is exactly who he thinks he is.

Who could be the other Blackfyre? It's not like we have a lot of time to have more characters introduced.

[Third Tail of the Dragon]

Who could be the other Blackfyre? It's not like we have a lot of time to have more characters introduced.

Daario. He dyes his hair, is from Tyrosh where the Blackfyres lived during their exile, shows up with the Sun's son, and I believe GRRM said there's more to him than meets the eye.

[Arrow of the Morning]

Great job! I believe Aegon is a Blackfire too and we have a plenty of evidences that feed this suspicion, even this evidences being circumstantial.

I just don;t buy the hypothesis that Varys is a Blackfire. The fact Melissandre uses royal blood in her spells is not a evidence. And about Serra and Varys, we would have a explanation of why the female line of the Blackfire became slaves.

[Arrow of the Morning]

He didn't need to know. Babies look very much the same when they are younger. Baby Aegon has fair hair. Wouldn't be that hard to find one in a huge city. Here's my chance to speculate. Baby Aegon never came to King's Landing. His father brought another fake(perhaps Ashara Dayne's child?) and passed him off while he left his son on Dragonstone. Varys would know this of course(as he knows mostly everything going on in King's Landing) After the fake was killed, Varys had the boy abducted and moved him across the sea. The daring escape story was one Varys cooked up after the fact to glorify his involvement.

Not in Westeros, Valyrian features are very rare, even with Targaryen bastards in king'sLanding and Dragonstone would be unlikely that Varys founded some baby with the right hair and eyes and the right age.

And about Ashara's baby we have no evidence if the baby is alive, all we know is Ashara had a stillborn daughter. Any speculation that the baby was a boy and didn't died in the birth is mere speculation.

[Hangover of the Morning]

Great job! I believe Aegon is a Blackfire too and we have a plenty of evidences that feed this suspicion, even this evidences being circumstantial.

I just don;t buy the hypothesis that Varys is a Blackfire. The fact Melissandre uses royal blood in her spells is not a evidence. And about Serra and Varys, we would have a explanation of why the female line of the Blackfire became slaves.

Same here, I am on board with the Blackfyre theory because it has less holes than the alternatives and because I find it the most satisfying story-wise. (There's a small part of me that think that YG is just a random kid, or Illyrio's son and V + I are playing both the red and the black dragons as well as everyone else).

Young Griff would be a Blackfyre through his mother, most likely Serra, so Illyrio's involvement and his motivation in that endeavour are pretty clear. On the other, Varys is still a complete mystery. I find it hard to believe that he would truly care about the rights of the Blackfyres or any other House for that matter. His origins and utter lack of any connections to anyone is Westeros makes him pretty much the only character that is free to do what he wishes. I would find it quite disappointing Varys was revealed to be some secret Targaryen/Blackfyre descendant in hiding, because than he'd be exactly the same as every other noble character in the books. His elaborate scheme would be about fulfilling his duty to his House rather than his own Machiavellian dreams.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Daario. He dyes his hair, is from Tyrosh where the Blackfyres lived during their exile, shows up with the Sun's son, and I believe GRRM said there's more to him than meets the eye.

Yep. Aegon's a smokescreen. GRRM knows the readers will think of Aegon first when it comes to the Blackfyre name. It's perfect, and fits with his standard misdirection without even ever saying that Aegon is a phony. All of the foreshadowing points to a Blackfyre but it doesn't specifically fit Aegon. The only exception is the "mummer's dragon" but even that still works with Aegon being real because he's Varys' (a mummer's) dragon. It's also possible that the people won't rise for him because they too think he's fake, but will cheer the final Blackfyre who has to have Targ blood because, look dragon! That only Targs can ride dragons propaganda works perfectly here.

And imagine the look on Dany's face when he takes off on one of her dragons to claim her throne. Now THAT is a betryal!

This way she and Aegon can team up to fight the final Blackfyre claimant. Even if she doesn't believe Aegon is her nephew, she'll need his help on this. Thus both sides of the Dance will have dragons. Daario kills Aegon, who tragically turns out to actually be Rhaegar and Elia's son but it doesn't save him. Dany kills Daario. And then we can move on to the really important battle up north.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

<snip

On the other, Varys is still a complete mystery. I find it hard to believe that he would truly care about the rights of the Blackfyres or any other House for that matter. His origins and utter lack of any connections to anyone is Westeros makes him pretty much the only character that is free to do what he wishes. I would find it quite disappointing Varys was revealed to be some secret Targaryen/Blackfyre descendant in hiding, because than he'd be exactly the same as every other noble character in the books. His elaborate scheme would be about fulfilling his duty to his House rather than his own Machiavellian dreams.

Dude! Varys is totally a Targaryen descended from Aerion Brightflame. His manhood was taken because of that whole "power in kings' blood" thing. I imagine certain body parts are more powerful than even the blood.

It's hardly a secret, the foreshadowing is there. He shaves his head, to hide his silver hair. He knows the Red Keep better than anyone and only the blood of the dragon knows the secrets of the Red Keep. However, this doesn't mean he's all about restoring the glory of his House. He could actually be about the long-term good of the realm. Or about revenge (bring them back in order to completely destroy them permanently).

You might want to trust the author to know what he's doing and be able to tell a compelling story regardless of whether Varys is a Targ.

[Facebookless Man]

We already have LF for machiavellian dreams.

I'm curious how you guys make the Serra Blackfyre thing work. If the male line was extinguished with Maelys Serra herself would be a from a female line. Were no males born to that line in 100 years? Did the male BF line go extinct twice in a row?

[Arrow of the Morning]

Same here, I am on board with the Blackfyre theory because it has less holes than the alternatives and because I find it the most satisfying story-wise. (There's a small part of me that think that YG is just a random kid, or Illyrio's son and V + I are playing both the red and the black dragons as well as everyone else).

Young Griff would be a Blackfyre through his mother, most likely Serra, so Illyrio's involvement and his motivation in that endeavour are pretty clear. On the other, Varys is still a complete mystery. I find it hard to believe that he would truly care about the rights of the Blackfyres or any other House for that matter. His origins and utter lack of any connections to anyone is Westeros makes him pretty much the only character that is free to do what he wishes. I would find it quite disappointing Varys was revealed to be some secret Targaryen/Blackfyre descendant in hiding, because than he'd be exactly the same as every other noble character in the books. His elaborate scheme would be about fulfilling his duty to his House rather than his own Machiavellian dreams.

What we know about Varys is he and Illyrio were friends and partners when Varys was a thief and Illyrio was a sellsword. May be he is just the partner that wants to help his old ally and gain even more in a much bigger scheme.

May be YG is just some random boy that was adopted for Illyrio to impersonate Aegon, but what Illyrio said to Tyrion and the draft written by George points that Illyrio can have blood strings with YG

[Hangover of the Morning]

Dude! Varys is totally a Targaryen descended from Aerion Brightflame. His manhood was taken because of that whole "power in kings' blood" thing. I imagine certain body parts are more powerful than even the blood.

It's hardly a secret, the foreshadowing is there. He shaves his head, to hide his silver hair. He knows the Red Keep better than anyone and only the blood of the dragon knows the secrets of the Red Keep. However, this doesn't mean he's all about restoring the glory of his House. He could actually be about the long-term good of the realm. Or about revenge (bring them back in order to completely destroy them permanently).

You might want to trust the author to know what he's doing and be able to tell a compelling story regardless of whether Varys is a Targ.

Good points and it may as well be true but I personally prefer it if Varys is a nobody who came from nowhere and was able (at least for a time) to fuck with everyone. I do believe that his main motivation is his version of the "good for the realm" or at least that's how he justifies to himself unleashing a war on the land or mutilating innocent kids.

Varys has been witnessing idiotic and incapable rulers all his life and I think he feels that he knows why they failed and that he'd have done much better in their case. Of course, he knows that he can never officially have any power so creates this perfect puppet to enable him being the shadow ruler in disguise. People in Westeros will probably do better on average with Varys in charge but it is still just a vision and ambition of a one power-hungry man and not necessary something that's best for the realm in the longterm.

[Facebookless Man]

Varys has been witnessing idiotic and incapable rulers all his life and I think he feels that he knows why they failed and that he'd have done much better in their case. Of course, he knows that he can never officially have any power so creates this perfect puppet to enable him being the shadow ruler in disguise.

And then he makes sure he has zero influence on that "puppet" and the "puppet" doesn't even feel he owes Varys anything that wasn't his by right. Makes sense.

[Hangover of the Morning]

We already have LF for machiavellian dreams.

I'm curious how you guys make the Serra Blackfyre thing work. If the male line was extinguished with Maelys Serra herself would be a from a female line. Were no males born to that line in 100 years? Did the male BF line go extinct twice in a row?

I agree that the connection to Serra is tenuous at best. She had blonde hair, so what. Many people do.

There are some serious hints in the book suggesting that Illyrio is YG's dad (the statue, children's clothes in Illyrio's mansion and his fondness for the boy) making Serra the most likely candidate for YG's mother. If we believe that YG is Blackfyre as well as the son of Illyrio and Serra, than one of them has to be a Blackfyre as well. Serra seems more likely for the purely lame reason that we know barely anything about her. It's just the best we have so far eve if it isn't much.

I personally don't think that the Blackfyre angle will play a major role in the books. It'd be about whether Aegon is real or not and how people will react to him. Hinting that he's a Blackfyre will be either used by his opponents to dismiss him or will be there for the astute reader to speculate about but not necessary crucial for understanding his storyline.

[Hangover of the Morning]

And then he makes sure he has zero influence on that "puppet" and the "puppet" doesn't even feel he owes Varys anything that wasn't his by right. Makes sense.

I am sure that Varys plans to have lots of influence over Aegon VI and will make sure that the kid knows to whom he owes his position. What makes you think otherwise? What do you think is Varys' plan?

[RedShirt47]

Varys is totally a Targaryen descended from Aerion Brightflame. His manhood was taken because of that whole "power in kings' blood"

I agree.

And Illyrio fits better as a Blackfyre. Tyrion sees the statue of a young Illyrio which reminds him of Aegon Iv.

I was unconvinced by the Blackfyre thing until I read the Brightfyre theory and its addendum (which i s also very interesting).

[Facebookless Man]

I am sure that Varys plans to have lots of influence over Aegon VI and will make sure that the kid knows to whom he owes his position. What makes you think otherwise? What do you think is Varys' plan?

I'm hoping it's related to the song more than the game. Varys being another LF or some bloodline loyalist adds nothing to the story. And the citadel, FM, and even Euron plotlines seem to be converging, I'm not fond of the idea that Varys plans are completely irrelevant to anything else that is going on. I have no idea tho. The BF thing just makes little sense story wise, despite there being hints for it.

Whatever the case may be, it's abundantly clear Aegon is NOT Varys' puppet.