Heresy 156

[Black Crow]

Welcome to Heresy 156, and its original [we hope] take on the Song of Ice and Fire.

So what’s Heresy all about about - and why has it been running continuously for over three years now?

The short answer is that it is a free-flowing discussion, or argument if you will, largely oncerned with the Wall, the Heart of Darkness which lies beyond it, and the Stark connection to both – or in short, Winter although of late we’ve spent some time looking at what was going on in the run-up to Robert’s rebellion – or was it really St. Jon of Arryn’s? The Heresy itself, is not therefore a particular theory far less a belief or set of beliefs, formulated and defended, but rather an application of chaos theory

The strength and the beauty and ultimately the value of Heresy comes from its diversity. This is a thread where ideas can be discussed – and argued - freely and because it’s a strong thread it can support discussion and argument that might simply vanish in the maelstrom of the general forum, because above all it is about an exchange of ideas and sometimes too a remarkably well informed exchange drawing upon an astonishing broad base of literature ranging through Joseph Conrad, Susannah Clarke, CS Lewis, and so many others all to the way to the Táin Bó Cúailnge and the Mabinogion; it’s about history [don't forget 1189] archaeology, ringworks and chambered tombs and even, the Gods save us, heroic geology.

In short it’s a way of thinking that looks at the story holistically and openly challenges some of those easy assumptions that the Others are the ultimate enemy and that it only awaits the unmasking of Jon Snow as Azor Ahai and the rightful heir to the Iron Throne [or the other way around] for the story to reach its epic conclusion in a great battle pitting Dany’s amazing dragons and three dragonriders against the icy hordes.

GRRM’s original synopsis from 1993, transcribed below does emphasise that he is taking the story through five related story arcs, not one. While the story has obviously changed and moved in interesting directions since its original conception, it does indeed confirm that the overall story does not revolve around the question of Jon Snow’s mother, but rather that is just one relatively minor plot device in an altogether much larger and much richer story.

If new to Heresy you may also want to refer to to Wolfmaid's essential guide to Heresy: http://asoiaf.wester...uide-to-heresy/, which provides annotated links to all the previous editions of Heresy, latterly identified by topic.

Don’t be intimidated by the size and scope of Heresy, or by some of the ideas we’ve discussed over the years. We’re very good at talking in circles and we don’t mind going over old ground again, especially with a fresh pair of eyes, so just ask, but be patient and observe the local house rules that the debate be conducted by reference to the text, with respect for the ideas of others, and above all with great good humour.

Beyond that, read on.

[Black Crow]

And now the slightly spoilerish full text of GRRM's1993 letter to his agent, Ralph Vicinanza. Things have obviously changed a bit since then but If you don’t want to know, don’t read on:

October 1993

Dear Ralph,

Here are the first thirteen chapters (170 pages) of the high fantasy novel I promised you, which I'm calling A Game of Thrones. When completed, this will be the first volume in what I see as an epic trilogy with the overall title, A Song of Ice and Fire.

As you know, I don't outline my novels. I find that if I know exactly where a book is going, I lose all interest in writing it. I do, however, have some strong notions as to the overall structure of the story I'm telling, and the eventual fate of many of the principle [sic] characters in the drama.

Roughly speaking, there are three major conflicts set in motion in the chapters enclosed. These will form the major plot threads of the trilogy, intertwining with each other in what should be a complex but exciting (I hope) narrative tapestry. Each of the conflicts presents a major threat to the peace of my imaginary realm, the Seven Kingdoms, and to the lives of the principal characters.

The first threat grows from the enmity between the great houses of Lannister and Stark as it plays out in a cycle of plot, counterplot, ambition, murder, and revenge, with the iron throne of the Seven Kingdoms as the ultimate prize. This will form the backbone of the first volume of the trilogy, A Game of Thrones.

While the lion of Lannister and the direwolf of Stark snarl and scrap, however, a second and greater threat takes shape across the narrow sea, where the Dothraki horselords mass their barbarians hordes for a great invasion of the Seven Kingdoms, led by the fierce and beautiful Daenerys Stormborn, the last of the Targaryen dragonlords. The Dothraki invasion will be the central story of my second volume,A Dance with Dragons.

The greatest danger of all, however, comes from the north, from the icy wastes beyond the Wall, where half-forgotten demons out of legend, the inhuman others, raise cold legions of the undead and the neverborn and prepare to ride down on the winds of winter to extinguish everything that we would call "life." The only thing that stands between the Seven Kingdoms and and endless night is the Wall, and a handful of men in black called the Night's Watch. Their story will be the heart of my third volume, The Winds of Winter. The final battle will also draw together characters and plot threads left from the first two books and resolve all in one huge climax.

The thirteen chapters on hand should give you a notion as to my narrative strategy. All three books will feature a complex mosaic of intercutting points-of-view among various of my large and diverse cast of players. The cast will not always remains the same. Old characters will die, and new ones will be introduced. Some of the fatalities will include sympathetic viewpoint characters. I want the reader to feel that no one is ever completely safe, not even the characters who seem to be the heroes. The suspense always ratchets up a notch when you know that any character can die at any time.

Five central characters will make it through all three volumes, however, growing from children to adults and changing the world and themselves in the process. In a sense, my trilogy is almost a generational saga, telling the life stories of these five characters, three men and two women. The five key players are Tyrion Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen, and three of the children of Winterfell, Arya, Bran, and the bastard Jon Snow. All of them are introduced at some length in the chapters you have to hand.

This is going to be (I hope) quite an epic. Epic in its scale, epic in its action, and epic in its length. I see all three volumes as big books, running about 700 to 800 manuscript pages, so things are just barely getting underway in the thirteen chapters I've sent you.

I have quite a clear notion of how the story is going to unfold in the first volume, A Game of Thrones. Things will get a lot worse for the poor Starks before they get better, I'm afraid. Lord Eddard Stark and his wife Catelyn Tully are both doomed, and will perish at the hands of their enemies. Ned will discover what happened to his friend Jon Arryn, but before he can act on his knowledge, King Robert will have an unfortunate accident, and the throne will pass to his sullen and brutal son Joffrey, still a minor. Joffrey will not be sympathetic and Ned will be accused of treason, but before he is taken he will help his wife and his daughter escape back to Winterfell.

Each of the contending families will learn it has a member of dubious loyalty in its midst. Sansa Stark, wed to Joffrey Baratheon, will bear him a son, the heir to the throne, and when the crunch comes she will choose her husband and child over her parents and siblings, a choice she will later bitterly rue. Tyrion Lannister, meanwhile, befriend both Sansa and her sister Arya, while growing more and more disenchanted with his own family.

Young Bran will come out of his coma, after a strange prophetic dream, only to discover that he will never walk again. He will turn to magic, at first in the hope of restoring his legs, but later for its own sake. When his father Eddard Stark is executed, Bran will see the shape of doom descending on all of them, but nothing he can say will stop his brother Robb from calling the banners in rebellion. All the north will be inflamed by war. Robb will win several splendid victories, and maim Joffrey Baratheon on the battlefield, but in the end he will not be able to stand against Jaime and Tyrion Lannister and their allies. Robb Stark will die in battle, and Tyrion Lannister will besiege and burn Winterfell.

Jon Snow, the bastard, will remain in the far north. He will mature into a ranger of great daring, and ultimately will succeed his uncle as the commander of the Night's Watch. When Winterfell burns, Catelyn Stark will be forced to flee north with her son Bran and her daughter Arya. Hounded by Lannister riders, they will seek refuge at the Wall, but the men of the Night's Watch give up their families when they take the black, and Jon and Benjen will not be able to help, to Jon's anguish. It will lead to a bitter estrangement between Jon and Bran. Arya will be more forgiving... until she realizes, with terror, that she has fallen in love with Jon, who is not only her half-brother but a man of the Night's Watch, sworn to celibacy. Their passion will continue to torment Jon and Arya throughout the trilogy, until the secret of Jon's true parentage is finally revealed in the last book.

Abandoned by the Night's Watch, Catelyn and her children will find their only hope of safety lies even further north, beyond the Wall, where they fall into the hands of Mance Rayder, the King-beyond-the-Wall, and get a dreadful glimpse of the inhuman others as they attack the wildling encampment. Bran's magic, Arya's sword Needle, and the savagery of their direwolves will help them survive, but their mother Catelyn will die at the hands of the others.

Over across the narrow sea, Daenerys Targaryen will discover that her new husband, the Dothraki Khal Drogo, has little interest in invading the Seven Kingdoms, much to her brother's frustration. When Viserys presses his claims past the point of tact or wisdom, Khal Drogo will finally grow annoyed and kill him out of hand, eliminating the Targaryen pretender and leaving Daenerys as the last of her line. Daenerys will bide her time, but she will not forget. When the moment is right, she will kill her husband to avenge her brother, and then flee with a trusted friend into the wilderness beyond Vaes Dothrak. There, hunted by Dothraki bloodriders [?] of her life, she stumbles on a cache of dragon's eggs [?] of a young dragon will give Daenerys the power to bend the Dothraki to her will. Then she begins to plan for her invasion of the Seven Kingdoms.

Tyrion Lannister will continue to travel, to plot, and to play the game of thrones, finally removing his nephew Joffrey in disgust at the boy king's brutality. Jaime Lannister will follow Joffrey on the throne of the Seven Kingdoms, by the simple expedient of killing everyone ahead of him in the line of succession and blaming his brother Tyrion for the murders. Exiled, Tyrion will change sides, making common cause with surviving Starks to bring his brother down, and falling helplessly in love with Arya Stark while he's at it. His passion is, alas, unreciprocated, but no less intense for that, and it will lead to a deadly rivalry between Tyrion and Snow.

[7 Lines Redacted]

But that's the second book...

I hope you'll find some editors who are as excited about all of this as I am. Feel free to share this letter with anyone who wants to know how the story will go.

All best,

George R.R. Martin

What’s in that redacted passage we don’t know but here’s what appears to be the equally spoilerish original synopsis/publisher’s blurb for Winds of Winter; not the forthcoming one, alas, but one apparently dating back to when it was still to be the third volume of the trilogy and following directly on in content and style from the first synopsis set out above:

Continuing the most imaginative and ambitious epic fantasy since The Lord of the Rings Winter has come at last and no man can say whether it will ever go again. The Wall is broken, the cold dead legions are coming south, and the people of the Seven Kingdoms turn to their queen to protect them. But Daenerys Targaryen is learning what Robert Baratheon learned before her; that it is one thing to win a throne and quite another to sit on one. Before she can hope to defeat the Others, Dany knows she must unite the broken realm behind her. Wolf and lion must hunt together, maester and greenseer work as one, all the blood feuds must be put aside, the bitter rivals and sworn enemies join hands. The Winds of Winter tells the story of Dany’s fight to save her new-won kingdom, of two desperate journeys beyond the known world in to the very hearts of ice and fire, and of the final climactic battle at Winterfell, with life itself in the balance.

[Voice]

Last thread went from March 3rd thru 6th. So it's probably time to lock this one down BC :D

[Black Crow]

I think the record was 48 hours back when Mace set up the Centennial 7 project.

[Voice]

I think we're on pace for that to become the norm

[Voice]

I don't know why the quote function isn't working for me.

Are we sure that unbiased is the right word to describe that weirwood window?

Seems unbiased enough to me. A lens into the past, without a filter. What makes you think otherwise? Not that I'm opposed, mind you. It would make sense for the weirnet to be biased toward the cotf side of things, but I never got that impression from the text myself.

[wolfmaid7]

Seems unbiased enough to me. A lens into the past, without a filter. What makes you think otherwise? Not that I'm opposed, mind you. It would make sense for the weirnet to be biased toward the cotf side of things, but I never got that impression from the text myself.

I didn't get that they are biased.The looker might be biased in what he wants to see and how he may interpret.But the Weirwoods are just a repository of events.They are conduits/tools if you will.Yes alive but they do not seem to show images in a more or less state than how and when that image occured.

Recording events as they happened and how without superimposing desire onto the images shown.

[Eira Seren]

Seems unbiased enough to me. A lens into the past, without a filter. What makes you think otherwise? Not that I'm opposed, mind you. It would make sense for the weirnet to be biased toward the cotf side of things, but I never got that impression from the text myself.

But... It is filtered? Maybe. Someone is seeing. Unless we think they are like hunter cams. I dunno, too tired maybe!

The weirwoods, are they unbiased?

[Voice]

But... It is filtered? Maybe. Someone is seeing. Unless we think they are like hunter cams. I dunno, too tired maybe!

The weirwoods, are they unbiased?

Well yeah, the greenseers are seeing... the weirwoods seem more like a surveillance system than fox news ;)

[Black Crow]

Anyways, back to the possibility Ser Arthur Dayne was Jon's father.

This is where it helps to step back and look at the question without a mountain of preconceptions.

We're aware that Lord Eddard Stark is not Jon Snow's natural father. This is confirmed by the synopsis above, and it therefore doesn't take the brains of an archmaester to figure out that Jon Snow's mother is therefore the late Lyanna Stark.

On the basis of the stories of Prince Rhaegar abducting and raping her [frequently] there is a general assumption that Jon Snow's father was therefore not Lord Eddard Stark but the said Prince Rhaegar, aided by the blue roses and hearsay from the Targaryen side an elaborate theory has grown up that the two fell in love and eloped together, that they married, that Jon is the true heir to the iron throne and that he represents a fusion of Ice and Fire and so on.

Contrarily however we now have both the synopsis setting out how the story was originally envisaged and we have the World Book. Whatever the actual individual circumstances Harrenhal is now revealed as the cover not for a romantic but a political affair and Lyanna's chance abduction some months later having a political dimension as an attempt to frustrate a series of family alliances. Whilst obviously incomplete the synopsis is clear that the outcome of the story rests upon five character arcs not one and that of those five it is Danaerys' Targaryen who is assuming the leadership role by bringing Wolf and Lion together and reconciling the Stark and Lannister conflict which opened the story in order that all can face together the threat from the North.

There's obviously going to be much more to it than that and not least the dynamics have yet to be revealed, but the point is that if there is not to be a single champion there is no need to justify Jon Snow's supposed role as such by identifying him as the son of Rhaegar; we can instead afford to look for another and in the end that comes down to the simple fact that if Rhaegar is ruled out as unnecessary and already married then Ser Arthur Dayne is the only realistic candidate and viewed objectively, if we remove the perceived need to identify Jon as a Targaryen, there are a surprising number of clues which can be used to justify this candidature.

And if you really want to see Jon as the one rather than merely one of five then there is the sword which can only be drawn from the stone by those who are worthy of it.

[Black Crow]

But... It is filtered? Maybe. Someone is seeing. Unless we think they are like hunter cams. I dunno, too tired maybe!

The weirwoods, are they unbiased?

I would say that they are filtered insofar that they are like any other POV in that the picture they see is not always complete.

A very straightforward example is Bran's weirwood vision:

We see the pregnant woman in the pool, but we don't know who she is.

We see the man being sacrificed but we don't know who he is or why

[Dany's Golden Fleece]

Continuing the most imaginative and ambitious epic fantasy since The Lord of the Rings Winter has come at last and no man can say whether it will ever go again. The Wall is broken, the cold dead legions are coming south, and the people of the Seven Kingdoms turn to their queen to protect them. But Daenerys Targaryen is learning what Robert Baratheon learned before her; that it is one thing to win a throne and quite another to sit on one. Before she can hope to defeat the Others, Dany knows she must unite the broken realm behind her. Wolf and lion must hunt together, maester and greenseer work as one, all the blood feuds must be put aside, the bitter rivals and sworn enemies join hands. The Winds of Winter tells the story of Dany’s fight to save her new-won kingdom, of two desperate journeys beyond the known world in to the very hearts of ice and fire, and of the final climactic battle at Winterfell, with life itself in the balance.

I have been trying to find a link to this blurb with no joy. How did you come about it Black crow? As a Dany fan I am VERY interested.

[Black Crow]

It was on the German Amazon site

[WeaselPie]

As it stands being the key phrase there. There's no point in my trying to guess what plot revelations will have the most emotional impact, because GRRM is always ten steps ahead in the way his narrative punches land emotionally.

Ned's beheading. The Red Wedding. The Purple Wedding. Baelor Breakspear. Oberyn's vs the Mountain, Only Cat, Tyrion and Tywin, For the Watch, Pink Letter etc.

I'm just looking for an explanation that makes sense. I think Arthur Dayne as Jon's father makes the most sense, and I trust George's imagination to stick the landing in terms of the emotional impact with two whole books to go. But agree to disagree.

From last thread

A resounding yes indeed. The arguments against heretical posits are often "but everything must be obviously foreshadowed so what you say can't be true." While that's sometimes the case (yet the foreshadowing is often so subtle - as in a word or two - that it isn't caught without some serious Monday-morning quarterbacking), our dear Turtle has pulled some surprising punches.

Certainly no good writer spoils the story before it's told. GRRM leaves a trail of breadcrumbs. I'm suspicious of RLJ because it's ten miles of bread factories.

FTR I think Dawn is important, and we don't have many candidates for SotM.

[Black Crow]

FTR I think Dawn is important, and we don't have many candidates for SotM.

The irony of course is that it has been speculated that the sword named Dawn is Lightbringer, but if he who wields Dawn is to be a Dayne then it is not to be wielded by Jon "Targaryen", however the son of Ser Arthur Dayne might be a different matter :cool4:

[Voice]

The irony of course is that it has been speculated that the sword named Dawn is Lightbringer, but if he who wields Dawn is to be a Dayne then it is not to be wielded by Jon "Targaryen", however the son of Ser Arthur Dayne might be a different matter :cool4:

I think this is the biggest factor in favor of Arthur as the father. Though as I said last thread, Dawn might not be special. And neither may Jon of course LOL, but I still think that as far as plot-weight goes, it's hard to trump Rhaegar.

[WeaselPie]

The irony of course is that it has been speculated that the sword named Dawn is Lightbringer, but if he who wields Dawn is to be a Dayne then it is not to be wielded by Jon "Targaryen", however the son of Ser Arthur Dayne might be a different matter :cool4:

I'm on board with the possibility, certainly. It's not Edric. I don't think Darkstar qualifies, being from cadet branch (does he?). The only other possibility is an Ashara baby, and that might mean grAegon.

The sheer lack of possibilities in itself is suspect. The SotM has to be worthy, not just a Dayne.

So how do we turn Dawn into Lightbringer? From shining milkglass to glowing red. Water, Lion, NissaNissa I suppose.

[WeaselPie]

Continuing the most imaginative and ambitious epic fantasy since The Lord of the Rings Winter has come at last and no man can say whether it will ever go again. The Wall is broken, the cold dead legions are coming south, and the people of the Seven Kingdoms turn to their queen to protect them. But Daenerys Targaryen is learning what Robert Baratheon learned before her; that it is one thing to win a throne and quite another to sit on one. Before she can hope to defeat the Others, Dany knows she must unite the broken realm behind her. Wolf and lion must hunt together, maester and greenseer work as one, all the blood feuds must be put aside, the bitter rivals and sworn enemies join hands. The Winds of Winter tells the story of Dany’s fight to save her new-won kingdom, of two desperate journeys beyond the known world in to the very hearts of ice and fire, and of the final climactic battle at Winterfell, with life itself in the balance.

I've read this a dozen times and only now realized there is no mention of Jon. Is GRRM going to hold him in frozen stasis until ADoS?

PS I doubt we'll get any resolution on Jon's parentage until the last book. Possibly even the last chapter. I'm prepared for more misdirection in TWoW.

[Black Crow]

I've read this a dozen times and only now realized there is no mention of Jon. Is GRRM going to hold him in frozen stasis until ADoS?

PS I doubt we'll get any resolution on Jon's parentage until the last book. Possibly even the last chapter. I'm prepared for more misdirection in TWoW.

To be fair there is no mention of anybody else either; its Dany's fight to save the Seven Kingdoms which she needs to do by getting the Starks and the Lannisters to put aside their blood feuds and work together. It emphatically isn't about Jon, but it occurs to me on reading this again that if it is all going to be down to the famous five and requires those two journeys to be made into the heart of Ice and the Heart of Fire before the big battle at Winterfell, perhaps we've been reading some of the roles slightly wrong and that if it is down to Danaerys to rally everyone, then while Jon goes north into the Ice to find his uncle, it may then be Tyrion rather than Danaerys who has to go into the Fire of Valyria to seek his - which isn't to say that Benjen Stark and Gerion Lannister have any or all of the answers, but rather that they provide a personal incentive for Stark and Lannister to go there.

ETA: as to the P.S. I rather get the impression from the first synopsis that its going to be resolved well before the end and that's another indicator that it may not be quite so important as some like to believe.

[MaesterSam]

I'm not sold on the idea, but at the least there's a text-based case to be made for Arthur Dayne potentially being present with Lyanna during her disappearance, as well as potential plot payoff for making Jon a half Dayne, depending on what the story is with Dawn.

The biggest problem I have is largely subjective--the text has done so little to highlight the story of House Dayne, or even Arthur himself, whereas the story of House Targaryen's fall looms large over the modern political setting, so as a reader I have no reason (for now) to be particularly invested in Arthur Dayne. Of course, as far as my own emotional investment goes, I still hope that Ned will turn out to be Jon's father :dunno:

I agree, Ser Arthur has only been mentioned in passing here and there. Which may have been done on purpose; if he kept popping up, he would be a more obvious suspect.

There are some nice parallels of course: Jon is already the Sword in the Darkness, and the Light that brings the Dawn. Having a sword named Dawn and also being the Sword of the Morning would go nicely with his other titles.

However, we do have a second option for making a Stark/Dayne baby, and one that is less speculative: we know Ashara was 'dishonored' at Harrenhal, we know she "turned to Stark", that she later had a baby (stillborn but yeah right) and then killed herself/disappeared. The original synopsis rules out Ned as the father, but could it have been Brandon? Unlike Lyanna, Ashara doesn't give birth a month after the Sack- at least she doesn't have to, as she doesn't have to die in Ned's arms. So there is no reason she couldn't have gotten knocked up at HH, then had a baby 9 months later. Ned got married to Cat somewhere around 6 months to a year after HH, so yes Jon is older than Robb but so what? He is also then the son of Rickard's heir, making him (once legitimized by Robb) the true heir not to the IT but to Winterfell.

Many already believe that Jon is Ned and Ashara's baby. But unless Ned spent 9 months in Dorne after the Sack, the only time they could have conceived a child would be HH. So if we place the conception at HH, any of the three Starks are potential dads- except we know it's not Ned, so that leaves Brandon and Benjen. Either one works for me, though only Brandon gives us an heir. Which would somewhat explain the secrecy, since Brandon's son would be a threat to Ned's (and CAT's) children as far as inheritance, even as a bastard.

As for Lyanna? Well, if you don't buy my theory that she died at the start of RR and never had a baby, other options are Howland Reed (resulting in Meera), Rhaegar (resulting in Young Griff) , Rhaegar (resulting in Dany, if the real Dany was stillborn), ... yeah that's all I got. Of course Ser Arthur is possible, but would there really be two Stark-Dayne affairs going on at the same time? When we already know one of them produced a baby?

I'm on board with the possibility, certainly. It's not Edric. I don't think Darkstar qualifies, being from cadet branch (does he?). The only other possibility is an Ashara baby, and that might mean grAegon.

The sheer lack of possibilities in itself is suspect. The SotM has to be worthy, not just a Dayne.

So how do we turn Dawn into Lightbringer? From shining milkglass to glowing red. Water, Lion, NissaNissa I suppose.

Yes, knowing there will be another Sword of the Morning pretty much tells us that there is a "hidden Dayne" somewhere. It would have to be someone of fighting age, and presumably around 15-20 years old (leaving room for fudged birthdates and age ambiguity) - younger is too young to fight, and older Daynes haven't been mentioned. So we have Ashara and Arthur as potential fathers, and Aegon and Jon as potential sons. In both cases it seems likely the other parent is a Stark (guaranteed in Jon's case). So now the question is- who is it? Ashara + B. Stark or Arthur + Lyanna?

I am not convinced Dawn will become Lightbringer. There is nothing red about it, and we have no reason to think it ever burned or will burn. The Daynes are not associated with fire, IIRC. But that's not to say it won't be important, I'm just not sure in what way.